US Election Odds - The most comprehensive U.S. election odds tracker on the web
Welcome to Electionodds.com, the best resource for tracking all U.S. election odds for the midterms in 2026 and beyond. Every two years, Americans head to the polls to elect everyone from their local mayor to the President of the United States. Between those elections, billions of dollars change hands on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi as traders try to forecast the outcome of every meaningful race in the country. We pull the live data from those markets, average it across both sources, and present it in one place - for free, without affiliate spam, without ads pretending to be content.
If you're here to find out who's favored in the 2028 presidential race, who controls Congress after the 2026 midterms, which Senate seats are toss-ups, or whether your state's gubernatorial race has shifted in the past week, you're in the right place. We track over 200 active U.S. election markets and update twice a day so the numbers you see here reflect what real traders with real money on the line believe right now.
Betting Odds For The 2026 Midterms - Balance Of Power
The midterm elections on November 3, 2026 will determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate for the second half of President Trump's term. All 435 House seats are on the ballot, along with 35 of the 100 Senate seats. Prediction markets currently see a divided Congress as the most likely outcome - Democrats are heavily favored to flip the House, while Republicans are slight favorites to hold the Senate.
Off-year wins for Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey in November 2025, combined with President Trump's approval rating slipping into the mid-30s, have pushed traders steadily toward the Democratic side over the past month. The Senate map remains tougher for Democrats simply because of which seats are up - they're defending more competitive ground than Republicans are.
2026 Election Odds For Senate - 2026 Odds For US House
2028 Presidential Election Betting Odds
The 2028 presidential race is already the highest-volume political market on Polymarket, with over $596 million wagered to date. With Donald Trump term-limited, both parties face genuinely open primaries for the first time since 2016. On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance is the narrow frontrunner but Marco Rubio has been climbing steadily. Democrats face a wider field still: California Governor Gavin Newsom leads, but Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, AOC, and former VP Kamala Harris all have meaningful market share. Find all presidential election odds for 2028 here.
Featured Candidates In 2026 Elections
The frontrunners from each party with their full slate of active markets - nomination odds, head-to-head matchups, and more. Probabilities reflect what traders are paying for "Yes" shares right now on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Biggest movers (last 7 days)
The markets where trader sentiment shifted most in the past week. Watch this section to spot momentum before mainstream media catches up. Some of the biggest market movements of the cycle have come from primary results: when Trump-backed Ed Gallrein knocked Rep. Thomas Massie out of his Kentucky seat in the May 19 GOP primary, Massie's congressional markets dropped from heavy favorite to zero overnight. The Georgia and Alabama governor and Senate runoffs on June 16 are the next major catalysts, with the California primary on June 2 and the Maine and South Carolina primaries on June 9 also likely to move markets significantly.
This Week's Primaries
Six states held primaries on May 19, 2026, the biggest single primary night of the cycle so far. Three more states voted on May 12. Here's what happened, with full coverage on each state page.
Georgia — Both the Republican governor and Senate primaries head to a June 16 runoff. Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones failed to clear 50 percent against self-funded businessman Rick Jackson in what became the third-most expensive gubernatorial primary in U.S. history. Rep. Mike Collins and former football coach Derek Dooley advance to the Senate runoff after eliminating Rep. Buddy Carter. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms won the Democratic governor primary outright and faces the GOP runoff winner in November. Sen. Jon Ossoff was unopposed.
Kentucky — The night's biggest national story: Trump-backed Ed Gallrein defeated Rep. Thomas Massie in the most expensive House primary in U.S. history at $32.6 million. Massie had drawn Trump's ire over Epstein files, the Iran vote, and the administration's signature tax bill. On the Senate side, Rep. Andy Barr won the GOP nomination to replace retiring Mitch McConnell at 64 percent over former AG Daniel Cameron. Charles Booker won the Democratic primary, flipping the 2020 McGrath-Booker result.
Alabama — Sen. Tommy Tuberville won the GOP gubernatorial primary and faces former Sen. Doug Jones in a 2020 Senate rematch — this time for governor. The Senate primary heads to a June 16 runoff between Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore (40 percent) and former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson, after state AG Steve Marshall conceded in third place. AL-1, AL-2, AL-6, and AL-7 hold special primaries August 11 after the Supreme Court vacated the court-ordered congressional map.
Oregon — Set up a Kotek-Drazan rematch in November after both won their gubernatorial primaries. Sen. Jeff Merkley won renomination at 93 percent and faces perennial Republican candidate Jo Rae Perkins for the third time. Patti Adair won the OR-5 GOP primary and will challenge first-term Democrat Janelle Bynum in the state's only competitive House race. Voters defeated a gas tax referendum by 83-17.
Pennsylvania — Gov. Josh Shapiro and Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity were both uncontested and head to a general election that will double as a national 2028 audition for Shapiro. Shapiro-endorsed Democrats won the primaries in all four targeted swing House districts: Bob Harvie in PA-1, Bob Brooks in PA-7, Paige Cognetti (unopposed) in PA-8, and Janelle Stelson in a PA-10 rematch with Scott Perry.
Idaho — All federal Republican incumbents held. Sen. Jim Risch won renomination at 67 percent and David Roth won the Democratic Senate primary at 62 percent. Gov. Brad Little is seeking a third term against Democratic nominee Terri Pickens. State-level results were more interesting than federal, with two sitting Republican state representatives losing primaries and the vice chair of the budget committee defeated in the Magic Valley.
The previous week's primaries on May 12 covered North Carolina (where Laurie Buckhout won a GOP runoff for NC-1), West Virginia (where Sen. Shelley Moore Capito won at 66.5 percent and attorney Rachel Anderson pulled off a major upset over heavy favorite Jeff Kessler in the Democratic Senate primary), and Nebraska (where Don Bacon's retirement leaves NE-2 as an open seat between Brinker Harding and Denise Powell). California, Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, New Jersey, and South Dakota vote next on June 2.
US Governors and City Mayoral Races Betting Odds
While presidential and Senate races get most of the attention, governorships and big-city mayoralties often produce the most lopsided prediction-market action — partly because the candidate field is smaller and partly because state and local political insiders are more likely to have private information than national-race observers. Polymarket alone has seen nearly $20 million in trading volume across California gubernatorial markets this cycle, with billionaire Tom Steyer leading the Democratic primary field heading into the June 2 vote. See all available betting odds for governor here.
2026 Governor races
Mayoral races
Trump Prediction Markets And Betting Odds
Polymarket runs continuous markets on where President Trump's approval rating will land throughout 2026 as well as dozens of other prop bets. Below: the live odds on how high or low his rating will go this year, plus other Trump-related markets traders are watching closely. We have recently built and entire page dedicated to all of the Trump prediction markets and betting odds. There you will find every single Trump market that is available for you to bet on with live odds. If you do not see the Trump odds on our page then they are probably shut down or closed.
How Prediction Markets Work In Political Betting
A prediction market is a financial exchange where people buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of a future event. The price of each contract - which always sits between 0 and 100 cents - represents the market's collective belief about the probability that the event will occur. If "Gavin Newsom wins the 2028 presidential election" is trading at 18 cents on Polymarket, the market is saying there's an 18% chance Newsom wins. When the event resolves, contracts pay out a dollar each if you bet correctly, or zero if you bet wrong.
The reason prediction markets matter is that they tend to be more accurate than polls, expert forecasts, or pundit panels - especially as elections get close. Polymarket itself claims a 94% accuracy rate one month before resolution, and academic research on prediction markets stretching back to the 1980s has consistently found they outperform conventional forecasting tools. The intuition is simple: when people have to put real money behind their predictions, the loudmouths and partisans get filtered out and the people with actual information get rewarded for sharing it. Polls measure what voters say. Markets measure what informed observers actually believe will happen.
That said, prediction markets aren't magic. Low-volume markets can be moved by a single trader with a small bankroll. Markets on niche events sometimes lag the news. We try to flag low-volume markets as such, and we always show you the trading volume alongside the odds so you can judge for yourself whether a number is reliable.
Our methodology
We pull live data from two prediction market sources: Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market by volume, which operates on the Polygon blockchain; and Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated U.S.-based exchange that became the first legal way for Americans to trade election contracts after winning a 2024 federal court case. Together these two markets capture the vast majority of trading volume on U.S. political events.
For each market, we calculate the implied probability as the midpoint of the bid-ask spread - that is, halfway between the highest price someone is willing to pay for a contract and the lowest price someone is willing to sell one for. When both Polymarket and Kalshi offer the same market, we average the two probabilities, weighted by 24-hour trading volume so that the more active market gets more influence.
Our system pulls fresh data twice a day - at 8:00 AM and 6:00 PM Eastern Time. For most markets this is plenty: prediction market odds rarely move more than a percentage point or two over the course of a day in normal conditions. During unusual events - a debate, a primary night, a major news break - odds can move much faster, and we recommend checking Polymarket or Kalshi directly for real-time updates on those days.
Is election betting legal in the U.S.?
The short answer is: yes, with caveats. Kalshi became the first CFTC-regulated platform legally permitted to host U.S. election markets after winning a federal appellate case in October 2024. American residents can sign up, deposit dollars from a bank account, and trade election contracts directly without breaking any federal law. Polymarket, which operates on a blockchain and settles in the USDC stablecoin, technically prohibits U.S. residents from creating accounts under its CFTC settlement, though enforcement has historically been spotty.
State-level rules are a different story. Arizona's attorney general has charged Kalshi with running an illegal gambling operation under state law, and several other state regulators have signaled interest in similar action. We don't offer legal advice, and we don't operate any of the markets ourselves - we just aggregate the odds from public APIs. Check your local laws before signing up to trade on either platform.
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are prediction markets compared to polls?
In most academic studies, prediction markets outperform polls in the final 30 days before an election. Polymarket claims a 94% accuracy rate one month out, and independent analyses of the 2024 cycle found prediction markets called the presidential winner correctly while RealClearPolitics' polling averages had the race effectively tied. Markets aren't perfect - low-volume contracts can be wrong by large margins - but for the major races we track, they've historically been the most reliable single signal available.
Where do these numbers come from?
We pull data twice daily from the public APIs of Polymarket and Kalshi. Both APIs are free and public. We average the two sources where they overlap and label single-source markets clearly so you can judge the data for yourself.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi sometimes disagree?
Different user bases. Polymarket is global, crypto-native, and tends to attract more international and politically-savvy traders. Kalshi is U.S.-only, dollar-denominated, and pulls in more retail participants. Small disagreements are normal; large gaps usually reflect different liquidity rather than different beliefs about the underlying race.
Can I bet on these markets myself?
U.S. residents can legally sign up and trade on Kalshi using a regular bank account. Polymarket technically prohibits U.S. residents but operates on a public blockchain that's harder to police. State laws vary - check yours before trading. We don't operate either platform; we just aggregate their public data.