Arkansas Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Arkansas is a state where the political math doesn't really require explanation. Sarah Huckabee Sanders is running for a second term as governor. Tom Cotton is running for a third term in the Senate. Trump won the state by 31 points. Republicans hold all four congressional seats and every statewide office. The Republican primaries already happened on March 3 — Cotton won, Sanders was unopposed — and the general election is a formality. The most interesting subplot involves Democratic candidate Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation Arkansas farmer running on food insecurity in the state with the nation's highest food-insecurity rate. She won the Democratic Senate primary with 78% of the vote and will face Cotton in November as an uphill underdog. Sanders's potential 2028 presidential profile is the long-range political story Arkansas is paying attention to. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Arkansas governor betting odds

Sanders is the daughter of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (1996-2007), the former White House Press Secretary under Donald Trump (2017-2019), and the youngest governor in the United States at her 2022 election. She won 2022 by 28 points over Democrat Chris Jones — the largest gubernatorial margin in Arkansas history.

Her Republican primary on March 3, 2026 was canceled — she had no challenger. The Democratic primary nominated state Sen. Fred Love (Mabelvale), a term-limited legislator who defeated 2022 candidate Supha Xayprasith-Mays. Love is the underdog by every measure — fundraising, name recognition, and the structural fact that Arkansas Democrats have not won the governor's office since Mike Beebe's 2010 re-election. Cook rates Solid Republican.

The interesting subplot: Sanders has been mentioned in 2028 Republican presidential primary speculation. She campaigned for Trump in 2024 and has remained one of his most visible state-level allies. A second-term win in 2026 would position her for whatever the 2028 Republican field looks like.

Arkansas presidential election betting odds

Arkansas's last Democratic presidential win came in 1996, when Bill Clinton carried his home state for a second time. Trump won Arkansas by 31 points in 2024 — his third-largest state margin nationally after West Virginia and Oklahoma. Cook PVI rates Arkansas R+15.

For 2028, the 6 electoral votes are safe Republican. Sanders is the Arkansas figure most often mentioned in 2028 markets — as a potential presidential candidate herself (in a Trump-vacated field) or as a top vice presidential pick for whoever wins the Republican nomination. Her political profile combines the Trump-era loyalty test with Republican establishment governing experience.

Arkansas senate betting odds

Tom Cotton, first elected to the Senate in 2014 by 17 points over Mark Pryor, is seeking a third term. He won the March 3 Republican primary against minor challengers Micah Ashby and Jeb Little, advancing to the general. The Senate Republican Conference Chair (third-ranking Senate Republican), Cotton has built a national profile around foreign policy hawkishness and immigration restriction.

The Democratic nominee, Hallie Shoffner, is a sixth-generation Arkansas farmer from Newport. Her primary win on March 3 over Ethan Dunbar gave her 78% of the Democratic primary vote. Her campaign centers on food insecurity — Arkansas has the highest rate of food insecurity of any state — and on the economic anxieties she argues Republicans in Washington are ignoring. Shoffner is the most credentialed Democratic Senate nominee Arkansas has fielded in a decade but the underlying math remains unforgiving: Trump won by 31 points, no Democrat has won an Arkansas Senate seat since Mark Pryor in 2008, and the state party infrastructure has atrophied. Cook rates Solid Republican.

Arkansas house betting odds

Republicans run the table in Arkansas's House delegation, and 2026 will not change that. The most competitive — and it's only relatively competitive — is AR-2 (French Hill, Central Arkansas including Little Rock). Hill faces a primary challenger (Chase McDowell) and is the only Arkansas Republican incumbent to draw one. His general-election opponent will be Chris Jones, the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee who lost to Sanders by 28 points but has retained statewide profile.

AR-1 (Rick Crawford, eastern Arkansas), AR-3 (Steve Womack, northwestern Arkansas), and AR-4 (Bruce Westerman, southern Arkansas) are all safely Republican with limited competitive activity.

No mid-decade redistricting in Arkansas. Primary already complete (March 3, 2026); general election November 3.