Election Odds by State - All 50 States, 2026 Races
Every US state has races on the 2026 ballot, and every state has a page on this site. Use this index to jump to the state you care about, or browse the full list below to see the political landscape across the country at a glance. For nationwide markets - presidential 2028, House control, Senate control, balance-of-power - head back to the homepage. For state-specific races, pick from the list below.
The 2026 election cycle in context
The 2026 midterms are the largest off-year election in the country. Thirty-three Senate seats are on the ballot, plus two special elections. Thirty-six states are electing governors. All 435 House seats are up. That's the broad national picture, but the political weight of any given race depends entirely on which state you're looking at. Maine's Senate race could decide control of the chamber. Wyoming's Senate race is over before primary day. Pennsylvania has a competitive governor's race. Vermont's race is decided.
Every state page below covers the four major office categories - Governor, Presidential, Senate, House - even when a particular state has no race in that category on the 2026 ballot. The off-cycle context (when the seat is next up, who currently holds it) is just as useful as the live race coverage for the seats that are on this year's ballot. We update the pages as primary fields develop, incumbents announce retirements or campaigns, and prediction markets form around new races.
2026 races in every state at a glance
The table below shows what is on the 2026 ballot in all 50 states: the 2024 presidential result, the current governor, the U.S. senators, which offices are up this year, and the marquee race to watch. Click a state name to jump to a short summary of its main races and candidates, or use the links to open the full state page with live odds.
| State | 2024 result | Governor | U.S. senators | 2026 races on the ballot | Marquee 2026 race |
| Alabama | Trump +22 | Kay Ivey (R), termed out | Tuberville (R, running for gov), Britt (R) | Governor (open), Senate (open), all 7 House | Open Senate seat after Tuberville (odds) |
| Alaska | Trump +13 | Mike Dunleavy (R), termed out | Murkowski (R), Sullivan (R, on ballot) | Governor (open), Senate, 1 at-large House | Peltola vs. Sullivan Senate race (odds) |
| Arizona | Trump +5.5 | Katie Hobbs (D), running again | Kelly (D), Gallego (D) | Governor, Lt. Governor (first time), all 9 House | Hobbs reelection vs. Biggs or Schweikert (odds) |
| Arkansas | Trump +31 | Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R), 2nd term | Cotton (R, on ballot), Boozman (R) | Governor, Senate, all 4 House | Sanders 2nd term; Cotton vs. Shoffner (odds) |
| California | Harris +20 | Gavin Newsom (D), termed out | Padilla (D), Schiff (D) | Governor (open), all 52 House (Prop 50 map) | Wide-open June 2 governor primary (odds) |
| Colorado | Harris +11 | Jared Polis (D), termed out | Bennet (D, running for gov), Hickenlooper (D, on ballot) | Governor (open), Senate, all 8 House | Bennet runs for governor; Hickenlooper Senate (odds) |
| Connecticut | Harris +14 | Ned Lamont (D), running again | Blumenthal (D), Murphy (D) | Governor, all 5 House | Lamont third-term bid (odds) |
| Delaware | Harris +14 | Matt Meyer (D), next 2028 | Coons (D, on ballot), Blunt Rochester (D) | Senate, 1 at-large House | Coons third Senate term (odds) |
| Florida | Trump +13 | Ron DeSantis (R), termed out | Moody (R, appointed), Scott (R) | Governor (open), Senate special, all 28 House (new map) | Open governor race; Byron Donalds (odds) |
| Georgia | Trump +2.2 | Brian Kemp (R), termed out | Ossoff (D, on ballot), Warnock (D) | Governor (open), Senate, all 14 House | Ossoff Senate defense in a swing state (odds) |
| Hawaii | Harris +23 | Josh Green (D), running again | Schatz (D), Hirono (D) | Governor, both 2 House | Green reelection; LG primary (odds) |
| Idaho | Trump +37 | Brad Little (R), 3rd term | Risch (R, on ballot, 82), Crapo (R) | Governor, Senate, all 2 House | Little 3rd term; Risch Senate at 82 (odds) |
| Illinois | Harris +10 | J.B. Pritzker (D), running again | Durbin (D, retiring), Duckworth (D) | Governor, Senate (open), all 17 House | Open Senate seat after Durbin; Pritzker 3rd term (odds) |
| Indiana | Trump +19 | Mike Braun (R), next 2028 | Young (R), Banks (R) | All 9 House | House races after redistricting push rejected (odds) |
| Iowa | Trump +13 | Kim Reynolds (R), retiring | Ernst (R, retiring), Grassley (R, 91) | Governor (open), Senate (open), all 4 House | First open governor and Senate races in decades (odds) |
| Kansas | Trump +16 | Laura Kelly (D), termed out | Marshall (R, on ballot), Moran (R) | Governor (open), Senate, all 4 House | Open governor race after Kelly (odds) |
| Kentucky | Trump +30 | Andy Beshear (D), next 2027 | McConnell (R, retiring), Paul (R) | Senate (open), all 6 House | Open Senate seat after McConnell (odds) |
| Louisiana | Trump +22 | Jeff Landry (R), next 2027 | Cassidy (R, lost primary), Kennedy (R) | Senate (Letlow-Fleming runoff June 27), all 6 House (new map) | Cassidy ousted; Senate runoff (odds) |
| Maine | Harris +7 | Janet Mills (D), termed out | Collins (R, on ballot), King (I) | Governor (open), Senate, both 2 House | Collins vs. Platner; could decide the Senate (odds) |
| Maryland | Harris +28 | Wes Moore (D), running again | Van Hollen (D), Alsobrooks (D) | Governor, all 8 House | Moore reelection; open MD-5 primary (odds) |
| Massachusetts | Harris +24.7 | Maura Healey (D), running again | Markey (D, on ballot), Warren (D) | Governor, Senate, all 9 House | Markey vs. Moulton Senate primary (odds) |
| Michigan | Trump +1.4 | Gretchen Whitmer (D), termed out | Slotkin (D), Peters (D, retiring) | Governor (open), Senate (open), all 13 House | Open governor and open Senate in a swing state (odds) |
| Minnesota | Harris +4.3 | Tim Walz (DFL), withdrew | Klobuchar (DFL, running for gov), Smith (DFL, retiring) | Governor (open), Senate (open), all 8 House | Open governor and Senate; Klobuchar runs for governor (odds) |
| Mississippi | Trump +23 | Tate Reeves (R), next 2027 | Hyde-Smith (R, on ballot), Wicker (R) | Senate, all 4 House | Hyde-Smith reelection vs. Colom (odds) |
| Missouri | Trump +18.4 | Mike Kehoe (R), next 2028 | Hawley (R), Schmitt (R) | All 8 House | House races under a new map (odds) |
| Montana | Trump +20 | Greg Gianforte (R), next 2028 | Daines (R, retiring), Sheehy (R) | Senate (open), both 2 House | Open Senate seat after Daines (odds) |
| Nebraska | Trump statewide; NE-2 Harris | Jim Pillen (R), running again | Ricketts (R, on ballot), Fischer (R) | Governor, Senate, all 3 House | Ricketts vs. independent Dan Osborn (odds) |
| Nevada | Trump +3 | Joe Lombardo (R), running again | Cortez Masto (D), Rosen (D) | Governor, all 4 House | Tied Lombardo vs. Ford governor race (odds) |
| New Hampshire | Harris +3 | Kelly Ayotte (R), next 2028 | Shaheen (D, retiring), Hassan (D) | Senate (open), both 2 House | Open Senate seat after Shaheen (odds) |
| New Jersey | Harris +6 | Mikie Sherrill (D), sworn in Jan 2026 | Booker (D, on ballot), Kim (D) | Senate, all 12 House | Booker third Senate term (odds) |
| New Mexico | Harris +6 | Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), termed out | Heinrich (D), Lujan (D) | Governor (open), all 3 House | Open governor primary: Haaland vs. Bregman (odds) |
| New York | Harris +12 | Kathy Hochul (D), running again | Schumer (D), Gillibrand (D) | Governor, all 26 House | Hochul reelection vs. Blakeman (odds) |
| North Carolina | Trump +3.2 | Josh Stein (D), next 2028 | Tillis (R, retiring), Budd (R) | Senate (open), all 14 House (new map) | Cooper vs. Whatley for the open Senate seat (odds) |
| North Dakota | Trump +36 | Kelly Armstrong (R), next 2028 | Hoeven (R), Cramer (R, on ballot) | Senate, 1 at-large House | Cramer Senate reelection (odds) |
| Ohio | Trump +11 | Mike DeWine (R), termed out | Moreno (R), Husted (R, special) | Governor (open), Senate special, all 15 House (new map) | Ramaswamy governor run; Husted Senate special (odds) |
| Oklahoma | Trump +34 | Kevin Stitt (R), termed out | Armstrong (R, appointed, cannot run), Lankford (R) | Governor (open), Senate (open), all 5 House | Open governor and Senate; Hern runs for Senate (odds) |
| Oregon | Harris +14 | Tina Kotek (D), running again | Merkley (D, on ballot), Wyden (D) | Governor, Senate, all 6 House | Kotek vs. Drazan governor rematch (odds) |
| Pennsylvania | Trump +1.7 | Josh Shapiro (D), running again | Fetterman (D), McCormick (R) | Governor, all 17 House | Shapiro reelection vs. Garrity (odds) |
| Rhode Island | Harris +14 | Dan McKee (D), running again | Reed (D, on ballot), Whitehouse (D) | Governor, Senate, both 2 House | McKee vs. Foulkes governor primary (odds) |
| South Carolina | Trump +18 | Henry McMaster (R), termed out | Graham (R, on ballot), Scott (R) | Governor (open), Senate, all 7 House | Open governor race; Graham reelection (odds) |
| South Dakota | Trump +29 | Larry Rhoden (R), succeeded Noem | Thune (R), Rounds (R, on ballot) | Governor, Senate, 1 at-large House (open) | Rhoden first race after Noem; Rounds Senate (odds) |
| Tennessee | Trump +29.7 | Bill Lee (R), termed out | Blackburn (R, running for gov), Hagerty (R, on ballot) | Governor (open), Senate, all 9 House (new map) | Blackburn runs for governor (odds) |
| Texas | Trump +13.7 | Greg Abbott (R), 4th term | Cornyn (R, on ballot), Cruz (R) | Governor, Senate, AG, all 38 House (new map) | Paxton vs. Cornyn Senate runoff (odds) |
| Utah | Trump +21 | Spencer Cox (R), next 2028 | Lee (R), Curtis (R) | All 4 House (new court-drawn map) | House races on a new court-drawn map (odds) |
| Vermont | Harris +32 | Phil Scott (R), running again | Sanders (I), Welch (D) | Governor, 1 at-large House | Phil Scott bids for a sixth term (odds) |
| Virginia | Harris +5.8 | Abigail Spanberger (D), sworn in Jan 2026 | Warner (D, on ballot), Kaine (D) | Senate, all 11 House | Warner fourth Senate term (odds) |
| Washington | Harris +18.2 | Bob Ferguson (D), next 2028 | Murray (D), Cantwell (D) | All 10 House | Open WA-4; Gluesenkamp Perez defends WA-3 (odds) |
| West Virginia | Trump +42 | Patrick Morrisey (R), next 2028 | Capito (R, on ballot), Justice (R) | Senate, all 2 House | Capito third Senate term (odds) |
| Wisconsin | Trump +0.9 | Tony Evers (D), not running | Johnson (R), Baldwin (D) | Governor (open), all 8 House | First open governor race since 2010 (odds) |
| Wyoming | Trump +46 | Mark Gordon (R), termed out | Barrasso (R), Lummis (R, retiring) | Governor (open), Senate (open), 1 at-large House (open) | Three open Republican races; decided in the primary (odds) |
State-by-state 2026 summaries
A short rundown of the main races and candidates in each state, in alphabetical order. Each links to the full state page with live prediction-market odds.
Alabama 2026 Elections
Alabama has a wide-open top of the ballot in 2026. Tommy Tuberville is leaving his U.S. Senate seat to run for governor, making him the heavy Republican frontrunner to replace term-limited Kay Ivey and leaving an open Senate race behind him. Both contests are expected to stay in Republican hands in a state Trump carried by 22 points. The bigger late development is redistricting: the U.S. Supreme Court vacated the court-ordered congressional map in May 2026, letting Alabama revert to the legislature's map, which endangered Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures in AL-2 and triggered an Aug. 11 special primary in the affected districts. All seven U.S. House seats are on the ballot under the redrawn lines. Alabama election odds.
Alaska 2026 Elections
Alaska's marquee 2026 contest is the U.S. Senate race, where Republican Dan Sullivan faces a serious challenge from former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in a state that backed Trump by 13 points. The governorship is also open, with Mike Dunleavy term-limited, setting up a competitive race to succeed him. Alaska's single at-large U.S. House seat is on the ballot as well. The state's ranked-choice voting system, used since 2022, adds an extra layer of uncertainty to all of these races and has historically helped candidates who can build second-choice support. That makes Alaska one of the harder states to forecast even when its partisan lean is clear. Alaska election odds.
Arizona 2026 Elections
The headline race in Arizona is Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs's bid for a second term in a true swing state Trump narrowly carried in 2024. Her likely Republican opponent is either Rep. Andy Biggs or Rep. David Schweikert, who are competing for the GOP nomination. Neither U.S. Senate seat is up in 2026, since Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego are both next on the ballot later, so the governor's race anchors the statewide ticket. Arizona will also elect a lieutenant governor for the first time, a newly created office that runs on a ticket with the governor. All nine U.S. House seats are on the ballot, including several competitive districts in a state with a Cook PVI of R+2. Arizona election odds.
Arkansas 2026 Elections
Arkansas is solidly Republican, and its 2026 ballot reflects that. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders is seeking a second term and is a strong favorite in a state Trump won by 31 points. Sen. Tom Cotton is running for a third term, with Democrat Hallie Shoffner challenging him in a race that is uphill for any Democrat statewide. All four U.S. House seats are on the ballot, all currently in Republican hands. Barring a major surprise, the interest in Arkansas is less about whether Republicans win and more about the margins and the shape of the primaries. Arkansas election odds.
California 2026 Elections
California will not change hands in November, but it is one of the most active prediction-market states of 2026 because of its wide-open governor's race. With Gavin Newsom term-limited, a crowded field is competing in the June 2 top-two primary to succeed him, and the fragmented Democratic field has made the race genuinely unpredictable. Neither U.S. Senate seat is up this cycle. The other major story is Prop 50, the redistricting fight that reshaped the congressional map, with all 52 U.S. House seats on the ballot under the new lines. In a state Harris carried by 20 points, the action is in the primaries and the House map rather than the statewide general. California election odds.
Colorado 2026 Elections
Colorado has an unusual 2026 reshuffle at the top. Sen. Michael Bennet is leaving his Senate seat to run for governor, replacing term-limited Jared Polis, which makes the governor's race the marquee contest. Bennet's departure does not open his Senate seat this cycle; instead, the Senate race on the ballot is fellow Democrat John Hickenlooper's bid for reelection, which is expected to be safe in a state that has trended blue. All eight U.S. House seats are up, including a couple of competitive districts. With a Cook PVI of D+4, Democrats are favored statewide, so the governor's primary is the contest to watch. Colorado election odds.
Connecticut 2026 Elections
Connecticut's headline race is Gov. Ned Lamont's bid for a third term in a reliably Democratic state. Lamont faces a progressive primary challenge from Josh Elliott before turning to a Republican field in the general. Neither U.S. Senate seat is on the ballot in 2026. All five U.S. House seats are up, all currently held by Democrats. In a state Harris carried by 14 points, Lamont is favored, so the most competitive action is the Democratic primary and whether any House seat becomes unexpectedly close. Connecticut election odds.
Delaware 2026 Elections
Delaware's 2026 ballot is short and heavily favors Democrats. Sen. Chris Coons is running for a third term in a state Harris won by 14 points, and he is a strong favorite. The state's single at-large U.S. House seat, held by Rep. Sarah McBride, is up for her first reelection after she made history as the first openly transgender member of Congress. There is no governor's race this cycle, since Matt Meyer was elected in 2024. With both contests leaning Democratic, Delaware is more of a hold-serve state than a battleground in 2026. Delaware election odds.
Florida 2026 Elections
Florida has a marquee open governor's race in 2026 with Ron DeSantis term-limited, and Rep. Byron Donalds, who carries Trump's endorsement, is a leading Republican contender. There is also a U.S. Senate special election for the seat held by appointed Sen. Ashley Moody, who took office in January 2025. Both statewide races favor Republicans in a state Trump carried by 13 points and that has shifted red over the past decade. All 28 U.S. House seats are on the ballot under a new congressional map. Florida draws real money on its open governor race even as the state has become less of a true swing state. Florida election odds.
Georgia 2026 Elections
Georgia is a genuine swing state, and its 2026 ballot is loaded. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is defending his seat in what is expected to be one of the most expensive races in the country, in a state Trump carried by just over two points. The governor's race is open with Brian Kemp term-limited, drawing competitive fields in both parties. All 14 U.S. House seats are on the ballot. With a Cook PVI of R+3 and a recent history of photo-finish statewide results, Georgia is one of the handful of states where prediction markets see the heaviest volume. Georgia election odds.
Hawaii 2026 Elections
Hawaii is one of the most Democratic states in the country, and its 2026 races reflect that. Gov. Josh Green is seeking reelection and is favored in a state Harris won by 23 points. The more contested fight is the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, where Sylvia Luke and Derek Kawakami are competing. Neither U.S. Senate seat is up this cycle. Both U.S. House seats are on the ballot and lean Democratic, so the primaries are where the competition lives. Hawaii election odds.
Idaho 2026 Elections
Idaho is deep red, and its 2026 ballot is a set of Republican holds. Gov. Brad Little is seeking a third term, and Sen. Jim Risch, who is 82, is running for a fourth Senate term. Independent Todd Achilles has launched a Senate bid, but the climb is steep in a state Trump won by 37 points. Both U.S. House seats are on the ballot and safely Republican. The competitive questions in Idaho are mostly inside the GOP primaries rather than the November general. Idaho election odds.
Illinois 2026 Elections
Illinois has an open U.S. Senate seat in 2026 for the first time in three decades, as Dick Durbin retires after 30 years, setting up a competitive Democratic primary to succeed him. Gov. J.B. Pritzker is running for a third term and is favored in a state Harris carried by 10 points, in a race that is also widely watched for its national implications. All 17 U.S. House seats are on the ballot. With a Cook PVI of D+7, Democrats are favored to hold both the governorship and the open Senate seat, making the Democratic primaries the most consequential contests. Illinois election odds.
Indiana 2026 Elections
Indiana has a quiet top of the ballot in 2026, with no governor or U.S. Senate race, so all the action is in its nine U.S. House seats. The notable development is that the state Senate rejected a Trump-backed push for mid-decade redistricting, so the House races run on the existing map. Indiana is a solidly Republican state that Trump carried by 19 points, and most of its districts are not competitive. The interest is in whether any individual district tightens and in the primaries within the dominant Republican delegation. Indiana election odds.
Iowa 2026 Elections
Iowa has its first simultaneously open governor and U.S. Senate races in generations, after Gov. Kim Reynolds and Sen. Joni Ernst both announced they would not run again. That double opening makes Iowa unusually wide open for a state that has trended Republican, with Trump carrying it by 13 points in 2024. Both contests are drawing crowded fields, and while Republicans are favored, open seats create the possibility of competitive general elections. All four U.S. House seats are on the ballot, including districts that have flipped in recent cycles. The twin open races make Iowa one of the more interesting Republican-leaning states to watch. Iowa election odds.
Kansas 2026 Elections
Kansas has a marquee open governor's race in 2026 with Democrat Laura Kelly term-limited, and Republicans hope to reclaim a governorship that Kelly held in an otherwise red state. Sen. Roger Marshall is running for reelection and is favored in a state Trump won by 16 points. All four U.S. House seats are on the ballot, with the suburban KS-3 district around Kansas City the most competitive. The governor's race is the one to watch, since Kelly's success showed a Democrat can win statewide under the right conditions. Kansas election odds.
Kentucky 2026 Elections
Kentucky's defining 2026 race is the open U.S. Senate seat that Mitch McConnell is leaving after more than 40 years, the longest Senate leadership tenure in history. The contest to succeed him centers on a competitive Republican primary in a state Trump carried by 30 points, where the GOP nominee will be heavily favored in November. There is no governor's race this cycle, since popular Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is next on the ballot in 2027. All six U.S. House seats are up, most of them safely Republican. The McConnell succession is the story, and it is largely a Republican-primary fight. Kentucky election odds.
Louisiana 2026 Elections
Louisiana produced one of the bigger Senate upsets of the cycle when Sen. Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump after Jan. 6, lost his Republican primary on May 16, 2026. The seat now heads to a June 27 runoff between Republicans Julia Letlow and John Fleming in a state Trump carried by 22 points, so the seat stays in GOP hands. All six U.S. House seats are on the ballot under a new map drawn under SB 121, after the Supreme Court's redistricting litigation reshaped the lines. There is no governor's race this cycle, with Republican Jeff Landry next up in 2027. The Cassidy ouster makes Louisiana a notable marker of Trump's grip on the GOP. Louisiana election odds.
Maine 2026 Elections
Maine hosts arguably the most important Senate race of 2026. Republican Susan Collins, the only GOP senator from a state Harris won, faces populist oyster farmer Graham Platner, who cleared the Democratic field after Gov. Janet Mills suspended her own campaign in April. Mills is term-limited, leaving an open governor's race whose June 9 Democratic primary is the decisive contest, with Rep. Jared Golden, former state Senate president Troy Jackson, and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows running. Golden's exit opens the rural ME-2 House seat, a Trump+9 district that is now a top national target for both parties. Maine uses ranked-choice voting in federal races, which historically helps non-Republicans in close contests. Maine election odds.
Maryland 2026 Elections
Maryland is strongly Democratic, and Gov. Wes Moore is running for reelection as a rising national figure in a state Harris carried by 28 points. Neither U.S. Senate seat is on the ballot in 2026. The most competitive contest is the open MD-5 House primary after the retirement of longtime Rep. Steny Hoyer, one of the longest-serving members of the House. All eight U.S. House seats are up, most safely Democratic. With Moore favored statewide, the open House primary is where the real competition sits. Maryland election odds.
Massachusetts 2026 Elections
Massachusetts features a rare competitive Democratic Senate primary in 2026, as Rep. Seth Moulton challenges 80-year-old Sen. Ed Markey, framing it as a generational contest. Gov. Maura Healey is running for reelection and is favored in a state Harris won by nearly 25 points. All nine U.S. House seats are on the ballot, all currently held by Democrats. Because the state is so heavily Democratic, the Markey-Moulton primary is effectively the marquee event, with the eventual nominee strongly favored in November. Massachusetts election odds.
Michigan 2026 Elections
Michigan is a top battleground in 2026 with both an open governor's race and an open U.S. Senate seat. Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited, and Sen. Gary Peters is retiring, creating two marquee contests in a state Trump narrowly carried in 2024. Adding to the drama, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is running for governor as an independent, scrambling the usual two-party math. All 13 U.S. House seats are on the ballot, several of them competitive. With a Cook PVI of R+1 and two open statewide seats, Michigan is one of the most important and heavily traded states of the cycle. Michigan election odds.
Minnesota 2026 Elections
Minnesota's 2026 map was upended by two big moves: Gov. Tim Walz withdrew from a reelection bid in January 2026, and Sen. Tina Smith is retiring, opening both a governor's race and a Senate seat. In a striking twist, Sen. Amy Klobuchar is leaving the Senate to run for governor, which means her own seat will also eventually turn over even though it is not the one on the ballot this cycle. All eight U.S. House seats are up. With a Cook PVI of D+1, Minnesota is more competitive than its recent Democratic record suggests, and the twin open statewide races make it a marquee state to watch. Minnesota election odds.
Mississippi 2026 Elections
Mississippi's 2026 ballot is anchored by Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith's bid for reelection, with Democrat Scott Colom challenging her in a state Trump carried by 23 points. There is no governor's race this cycle, since Republican Tate Reeves is next up in 2027. All four U.S. House seats are on the ballot, including MS-2, the majority-Black district held by veteran Democrat Bennie Thompson. The Senate race favors the Republican incumbent, so Mississippi is more a question of margins than of control. Mississippi election odds.
Missouri 2026 Elections
Missouri has no governor or U.S. Senate race in 2026, so the focus is on its eight U.S. House seats, which run on a new congressional map. The redrawn lines carve up Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based MO-5 district, a move that could cost Democrats a seat, and a possible November referendum on the map looms over the cycle. Missouri has trended firmly Republican, with Trump carrying it by more than 18 points. The redistricting fight is the central 2026 story in a state where the statewide offices were not on the ballot. Missouri election odds.
Montana 2026 Elections
Montana's marquee 2026 race is the open U.S. Senate seat created by Sen. Steve Daines's retirement. Trump-endorsed Kurt Alme is among the Republicans competing in a state Trump won by 20 points, and a University of Montana-affiliated independent has entered as well. The Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the general. There is no governor's race this cycle, with Republican Greg Gianforte next up in 2028. Both U.S. House seats are on the ballot, and the open Senate seat is the contest that will draw national attention. Montana election odds.
Nebraska 2026 Elections
Nebraska's most watched 2026 race is Sen. Pete Ricketts's reelection bid against independent Dan Osborn, who ran a surprisingly strong Senate campaign in 2024 and is trying again. Gov. Jim Pillen is seeking a second term and is favored. Nebraska splits its electoral votes by district, and the Omaha-based NE-2 went to Harris in 2024, making Rep. Don Bacon's old district a perennial swing seat now that the competitive House race there is in play. All three U.S. House seats are on the ballot. Osborn's independent challenge is the wild card in an otherwise Republican-leaning state. Nebraska election odds.
Nevada 2026 Elections
Nevada has one of the closest governor's races in the country in 2026, with Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo facing Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford in a contest polls have shown essentially tied. Neither U.S. Senate seat is up this cycle. All four U.S. House seats are on the ballot, including the swing NV-3 district that both parties target every cycle. Nevada is a genuine battleground, narrowly carried by Trump in 2024 but with a Cook PVI of D+1, so the Lombardo-Ford race is a true toss-up and a heavy draw for prediction markets. Nevada election odds.
New Hampshire 2026 Elections
New Hampshire's marquee 2026 contest is the open U.S. Senate seat created by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen's retirement, a competitive race in a swing state Harris carried by just three points. The open NH-1 House seat, after Rep. Chris Pappas left to run for the Senate, is also a top battleground, and NH-2 is in play as well. There is no governor's race this cycle, with Republican Kelly Ayotte next up in 2028. With a Cook PVI of D+1 and multiple open seats, New Hampshire is one of the most competitive small states on the 2026 map. New Hampshire election odds.
New Jersey 2026 Elections
New Jersey's 2026 ballot is headlined by Sen. Cory Booker's bid for a third term in a state Harris carried by six points. New Jersey shifted toward Trump in 2024 relative to past cycles, but Booker is favored as the state's Democratic lean reasserts itself in a midterm. There is no governor's race this cycle, since Mikie Sherrill won in 2025 and was sworn in in January 2026. All 12 U.S. House seats are on the ballot, several of them competitive. Booker's reelection is the marquee statewide race, with the House map providing the closer contests. New Jersey election odds.
New Mexico 2026 Elections
New Mexico's marquee 2026 race is the open governor's contest, with Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham term-limited. The Democratic primary between former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Albuquerque district attorney Sam Bregman is the decisive fight in a state Harris carried by six points. Neither U.S. Senate seat is up this cycle. All three U.S. House seats are on the ballot, including the swing NM-2 district in the southern part of the state. With Democrats favored statewide, the Haaland-Bregman primary is the contest that effectively chooses the next governor. New Mexico election odds.
New York 2026 Elections
New York's headline 2026 race is Gov. Kathy Hochul's bid for reelection, with Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman among the Republicans lining up to challenge her in a state Harris carried by 12 points. Neither U.S. Senate seat is on the ballot this cycle. All 26 U.S. House seats are up, and several New York districts are among the most competitive in the country, with a redistricting fight around seats like NY-11 adding to the stakes. New York's suburban swing districts have decided House majorities in recent cycles, so the state matters nationally even though the governor's race leans Democratic. New York election odds.
North Carolina 2026 Elections
North Carolina has one of the premier Senate races of 2026, an open seat created by Republican Thom Tillis's retirement. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, a proven statewide winner, faces Republican Michael Whatley in a true swing state Trump carried by about three points. There is no governor's race this cycle, with Democrat Josh Stein next up in 2028. All 14 U.S. House seats are on the ballot under a new map that targets the Democratic-held NC-1. With a popular former governor on the ballot in a closely divided state, North Carolina's Senate race is a top-tier battleground and a heavy draw for markets. North Carolina election odds.
North Dakota 2026 Elections
North Dakota's 2026 ballot is a set of Republican holds in one of the reddest states in the country. Sen. Kevin Cramer is running for reelection in a state Trump carried by 36 points and is a heavy favorite. There is no governor's race this cycle, with Republican Kelly Armstrong next up in 2028. The state's single at-large U.S. House seat, held by Rep. Julie Fedorchak, is also on the ballot. Barring a stunning surprise, both federal races stay Republican, so the interest is in the primaries. North Dakota election odds.
Ohio 2026 Elections
Ohio has two marquee statewide races in 2026. The governor's race is open with Mike DeWine term-limited, and Vivek Ramaswamy is a leading Republican contender to succeed him. There is also a U.S. Senate special election for the seat Jon Husted was appointed to after JD Vance became vice president. Both favor Republicans in a state that has shifted red, with Trump winning by 11 points. All 15 U.S. House seats are on the ballot under a new map. Ohio is no longer a true toss-up, but its open governor race and Senate special still draw national attention. Ohio election odds.
Oklahoma 2026 Elections
Oklahoma has both an open governor's race and an open U.S. Senate seat in 2026, an unusual double opening in a deep-red state. Gov. Kevin Stitt is term-limited, and the Senate seat opened when Markwayne Mullin's successor situation left the appointed senator unable to run, with Rep. Kevin Hern among the Republicans seeking the seat with Trump's backing. Both contests are expected to stay Republican in a state Trump carried by 34 points. All five U.S. House seats are on the ballot. The competition in Oklahoma is concentrated in the Republican primaries for the two open statewide seats. Oklahoma election odds.
Oregon 2026 Elections
Oregon's headline 2026 race is a rematch of the 2022 governor's contest, with Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek facing Republican Christine Drazan again in a state Harris carried by 14 points. Sen. Jeff Merkley is running for a fourth term and is favored. All six U.S. House seats are on the ballot, including the perennially competitive OR-5 district. With Democrats favored statewide, the Kotek-Drazan rematch and the OR-5 swing seat are the contests that will draw the most attention. Oregon election odds.
Pennsylvania 2026 Elections
Pennsylvania was the tipping-point state of the 2024 presidential election, decided by less than two points, and its 2026 governor's race is a marquee contest. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, a national figure often mentioned for higher office, faces Republican Stacy Garrity in his bid for a second term. Neither U.S. Senate seat is on the ballot this cycle. All 17 U.S. House seats are up, with four genuinely competitive districts that could help decide the House majority. Shapiro is favored, but in a state this closely divided, Pennsylvania remains one of the most important battlegrounds in the country. Pennsylvania election odds.
Rhode Island 2026 Elections
Rhode Island's most competitive 2026 race is the Democratic primary for governor, where incumbent Dan McKee faces a strong challenge from Helena Foulkes after a bruising first term. Sen. Jack Reed is running for a sixth term and is safe in a state Harris carried by 14 points. Both U.S. House seats are on the ballot and lean Democratic. With the state reliably blue, the McKee-Foulkes primary is effectively the marquee event, since the Democratic nominee will be favored in November. Rhode Island election odds.
South Carolina 2026 Elections
South Carolina has an open governor's race in 2026 with Henry McMaster term-limited, drawing a crowded Republican primary that will effectively decide the seat in a state Trump carried by 18 points. Sen. Lindsey Graham is running for another term and faces his usual primary scrutiny from the right before a favorable general election. All seven U.S. House seats are on the ballot, most safely Republican. The Republican primaries for governor and Senate are where the real competition lives in this solidly red state. South Carolina election odds.
South Dakota 2026 Elections
South Dakota's 2026 ballot features Gov. Larry Rhoden running for his first full term after he succeeded Kristi Noem when she left to lead the Department of Homeland Security in early 2025. Sen. Mike Rounds is running for reelection and is favored in a state Trump carried by 29 points. The state's single at-large U.S. House seat is open and drawing a Republican field. All three contests are expected to stay Republican, so the primaries are the competitive arenas in this deep-red state. South Dakota election odds.
Tennessee 2026 Elections
Tennessee has an open governor's race in 2026, with Sen. Marsha Blackburn leaving an open path as she runs for governor to succeed term-limited Bill Lee. Sen. Bill Hagerty is running for reelection and is favored in a state Trump carried by nearly 30 points. All nine U.S. House seats are on the ballot under a new congressional map. Both statewide contests are expected to stay Republican, so the marquee storyline is Blackburn's move from the Senate to the governor's race and the competitive Republican primaries it sets off. Tennessee election odds.
Texas 2026 Elections
Texas has a loaded 2026 ballot. The marquee race is the Republican Senate primary, where Sen. John Cornyn faced a fierce challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton that went to a runoff, one of the most closely watched intra-party fights in the country. Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a record fourth term and is favored, and the attorney general's office is open with Paxton running for Senate. All 38 U.S. House seats are on the ballot under a new map drawn to expand the Republican advantage. In a state Trump carried by nearly 14 points, the Cornyn-Paxton runoff is the headline drama of the cycle. Texas election odds.
Utah 2026 Elections
Utah has no governor or U.S. Senate race in 2026, so the focus is on its four U.S. House seats, which run on a new court-drawn map. The redrawn lines created a newly Democratic-leaning district anchored in Salt Lake County, a notable change in a state Trump carried by 21 points and a rare competitive House opportunity for Democrats in Utah. The other districts remain safely Republican. The court-drawn map is the central 2026 story, since it put a Utah House seat genuinely in play for the first time in years. Utah election odds.
Vermont 2026 Elections
Vermont offers one of the great paradoxes in American politics: it is the most Democratic state at the presidential level, giving Harris a 32-point win, yet it keeps reelecting popular Republican Gov. Phil Scott. Scott is running for a sixth two-year term against Democrat Amanda Janoo and is favored on the strength of his personal popularity. Neither U.S. Senate seat is up this cycle. The state's single at-large U.S. House seat, held by Democrat Becca Balint, is on the ballot and safely Democratic. Vermont's split-ticket habit makes its governor's race a fascinating outlier. Vermont election odds.
Virginia 2026 Elections
Virginia's 2026 ballot is headlined by Sen. Mark Warner's bid for a fourth term in a state Harris carried by nearly six points. Warner is favored as Virginia's Democratic lean has firmed up in the Trump era. There is no governor's race this cycle, since Democrat Abigail Spanberger won in 2025 and was sworn in in January 2026. All 11 U.S. House seats are on the ballot, running on the existing map after a redistricting amendment failed. With Warner favored, the competitive action is in a handful of swing House districts in the suburbs and the south. Virginia election odds.
Washington 2026 Elections
Washington has no governor or U.S. Senate race in 2026, so its 10 U.S. House seats carry the cycle. The marquee contests are the open WA-4 seat after Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse's retirement, and Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's tough defense of the swing WA-3 district she has held by narrow margins. Washington is a reliably Democratic state at the statewide level, with Harris winning by 18 points, but its rural and southwestern districts are far more competitive. The WA-3 race in particular is one of the more closely watched House contests in the West. Washington election odds.
West Virginia 2026 Elections
West Virginia is the reddest state on the 2026 map, and its ballot is a set of Republican holds. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito is running for a third term in a state Trump carried by 42 points and is a near-certain winner. There is no governor's race this cycle, with Republican Patrick Morrisey next up in 2028. Both U.S. House seats are on the ballot and safely Republican. There is little suspense about control in West Virginia, so the only competitive contests are within the Republican primaries. West Virginia election odds.
Wisconsin 2026 Elections
Wisconsin has its first open governor's race since 2010 after Democratic Gov. Tony Evers declined to seek a third term, instantly making it one of the marquee contests of 2026 in the nation's closest swing state. Trump carried Wisconsin by less than a point, and the Cook PVI rates it even, so the open seat is a genuine toss-up that has drawn crowded primaries in both parties. Neither U.S. Senate seat is up this cycle. All eight U.S. House seats are on the ballot, including competitive districts. The open governor's race makes Wisconsin one of the most important and heavily traded states of the cycle. Wisconsin election odds.
Wyoming 2026 Elections
Wyoming is the most Republican state in the country, and 2026 brings a rare triple opening: an open governor's race with Mark Gordon term-limited, an open U.S. Senate seat with Cynthia Lummis retiring, and an open at-large U.S. House seat. In a state Trump carried by 46 points, all three will be decided in the Republican primaries, with the general elections a formality. That makes the GOP primary fields the entire story in Wyoming. Despite the wide-open ballot, there is no suspense about which party wins, only about which Republicans prevail. Wyoming election odds.
What's on each state page
Every state page follows the same structure so you can find what you're looking for quickly. The opening section has a quick-guide table with the state's basic political facts - electoral votes, 2024 presidential margin, current governor and senators, which seats are on the 2026 ballot. Right below that is the State Odds Block: live prediction-market odds for every race in the state, grouped by office. Governor races at the top, then Senate, then House.
Below the live odds, four sections cover Governor, Presidential, Senate, and House races in depth. Each section explains what's at stake in 2026, who the candidates are, what the political history of the state looks like, and where the prediction markets currently price the race. States without a race in a given category (no governor race in 2026, both Senate seats off-cycle) still get the section, because the off-year context matters for understanding the state's political shape.
How the live odds work
The State Odds Block on every state page pulls live data from Polymarket and Kalshi, the two largest US prediction markets covering political races. Polymarket has cryptocurrency-backed markets that work without geographic restrictions. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange. Both market makers produce real-money probability estimates that update every few minutes as traders act on news.
The numbers you see on a state page are implied probabilities - what the market currently thinks the chance is that a given candidate or party wins. A market trading at 67 cents means the market estimates a 67% probability. We display these as percentages because that's how most readers think about elections. Race odds get color-coded by party: Democratic candidates in blue, Republican in red, independent in purple, toss-ups (40-60%) in gold. Each card on the State Odds Block links to the underlying market on Polymarket or Kalshi if you want to trade directly.
Worth knowing: prediction markets only form around races where there's enough trader interest. About half the states have no live markets at any given time because their 2026 races are either uncompetitive, off-cycle, or both. We show a note on those pages letting you know we checked and there's nothing to report yet. Check back closer to election day - primary season tends to spawn new markets as fields develop.
When the state pages are most useful
The competitive 2026 Senate races are where the markets matter most. Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Texas, Alaska, and a handful of others see heavy prediction-market volume because the seats are genuinely contested. The governor's races track similar logic: open seats in competitive states (Florida, California, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia) attract real money, while open seats in deep-red or deep-blue states usually don't, because the primary winner is essentially guaranteed to win the general.
The state pages also serve as a reference for the structural facts that don't change race to race - which Senate seat is up when, how long the governor's term is, how a state's two-letter code maps to its political profile. If you're using prediction markets to make decisions, the structural information matters as much as the live odds. Knowing that Vermont elects a Republican governor every two years in a state Harris won by 32 points tells you something about how to read polling and market prices that the bare numbers can't.