Florida Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Florida is the third-largest state in the country and a Republican stronghold whose political weight in 2026 is impossible to overstate. With 30 electoral votes, a term-limited governor in Ron DeSantis, and an active mid-decade redistricting fight that just produced a new congressional map after a contentious April special session, Florida is generating more prediction-market volume on its 2026 races than any other state in the country. Polymarket alone has tracked nearly $20 million in trading on the California gubernatorial race this cycle, but Florida governor and Florida Senate special election markets are not far behind, and the new redistricting layer is producing its own market activity on whether DeSantis's map will survive the inevitable court challenges. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Florida governor betting odds

The Florida governor's race is the most consequential open-seat contest in the country in 2026. Ron DeSantis is term-limited after eight years in office, and the Republican primary on August 18, 2026 has consolidated faster than most observers expected. Representative Byron Donalds of Naples picked up Donald Trump's endorsement in February 2025 and has held a commanding lead in every public poll since. The most recent Emerson College survey (April 2026) put him at 46% in a multi-candidate field, with Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins at 4%, investment-firm executive James Fishback at 4%, and 39% undecided. Donalds raised $22 million in the first quarter of 2026, the largest non-incumbent quarterly haul in Florida history, and his fundraising apparatus has effectively frozen the race in place.

The unresolved variable is Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis. She has not declared a candidacy as of this writing, and an investigation into her Hope Florida initiative dented her stock earlier this year, but Ron DeSantis has signaled he would back her if she enters. In hypothetical match-ups that include her, Donalds still leads — 44% to her 7% with Trump's endorsement in play. The qualifying deadline has passed and the primary is roughly three months away, so any decision from her would need to come soon.

On the Democratic side, former Republican representative David Jolly leads a thin field with 21% support, followed by Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings at 10%. The party last won a Florida gubernatorial election in 1994, when Lawton Chiles was re-elected, and the markets are not pricing this cycle any differently. DeSantis won by 19.4 points in 2022 and Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024.

Florida presidential election betting odds

Florida is no longer a swing state. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win it was Barack Obama in 2012, and the state has moved significantly to the right in each of the three elections since. Trump won by 1.2 points in 2016, by 3.4 points in 2020, and by 13 points in 2024 — one of the most dramatic decade-long shifts in any large state. The Republican margin in 2024 was driven by gains among the state's increasingly conservative Latino population and the continued rightward drift of suburban counties that were competitive a decade ago.

For 2028, the prediction markets currently treat Florida as safely Republican regardless of who tops either party's ticket. The interesting question on this page is not whether the state will go Republican — it almost certainly will — but how Florida's 30 electoral votes interact with the rest of the map for Republican nominees who can or cannot count on Florida's now-reliable margin. Marco Rubio's elevation to Secretary of State in 2025 took Florida's most prominent presidential prospect off the 2028 board, but his name still surfaces in long-shot markets and his standing among Florida Republicans remains a relevant data point for whatever path he takes after his cabinet service ends.

Florida senate betting odds

Florida has two Republican senators in the chamber right now and is holding one special election on November 3, 2026 to fill the remainder of Marco Rubio's term, which extends to January 2029.

Ashley Moody, the former Florida attorney general, was appointed by DeSantis in January 2025 to fill Rubio's seat after his confirmation as Secretary of State. She is running for the special election to complete the term and faces no credible Republican primary opponent — Representative Cory Mills briefly considered a challenge in early 2025 but pulled back, leaving Moody with an effectively clear lane. She has Trump's endorsement, hired veteran Trump-world operatives Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio to her super PAC, and posted strong fundraising quarters that have continued to scare off challengers. The primary is August 18, 2026.

On the Democratic side, the field includes state senator Tina Polsky and former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who lost to Rick Scott in 2024. Neither has cleared the polling threshold that would suggest a competitive general election, and Florida hasn't elected a Democratic senator since Bill Nelson won his last term in 2012. The prediction markets are pricing the Moody seat as likely Republican.

Rick Scott, the state's other senator, is not on the 2026 ballot. His next election is 2030.

Florida house betting odds

Florida's congressional delegation is the story of the 2026 cycle, and not just because of the size of the state. On April 29, 2026, during a five-day special legislative session called by DeSantis, the Florida legislature passed a new congressional map that would shift the delegation from its current 20-Republican, 8-Democratic split to 24-Republican, 4-Democratic. The map specifically targets four Democratic incumbents — Kathy Castor of Tampa, Darren Soto of Orlando, Lois Frankel of West Palm Beach, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Fort Lauderdale — by cracking their districts across multiple new Republican-leaning territories. DeSantis signed the bill on May 4.

The legal backdrop matters. The same day the new map passed, the U.S. Supreme Court issued its 6-3 ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, holding that the Voting Rights Act does not require the creation of majority-minority districts and that doing so can amount to unconstitutional racial gerrymandering. DeSantis had been waiting for this ruling — he later said publicly he had "advance knowledge" of how the Court would rule — and his map relies on it to dismantle Florida's old 20th Congressional District in South Florida. A state-court lawsuit was filed on May 4 arguing the new map violates Florida's Fair Districts Amendment, which voters approved in 2010 to bar partisan gerrymandering. The case is expected to reach the Florida Supreme Court, where six of the seven justices were appointed by DeSantis.

Prediction markets are pricing this in two ways. The first is the seat-by-seat outcome under the new map: most analysts now rate FL-9, FL-14, FL-22, and FL-25 as Republican-favorable or toss-up where they were previously safe Democratic. The second is the meta-question of whether the new map will survive court review at all. Both layers generate market activity, and we track them as separate questions.

The primary for the new districts has been moved from April to June 2026 to accommodate the new lines, and the qualifying period has been adjusted accordingly.