2026 Election Tracker
Illinois Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Illinois 2026 election odds for JB Pritzker's third-term Bailey rematch, the open Senate seat after Dick Durbin's 30 years, and all 17 House races plus history.
| Electoral votes | 19 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris ~54% / Trump ~44% (D+10 margin) |
| Current governor | J.B. Pritzker (D), running for re-election |
| U.S. senators | Dick Durbin (D, retiring), Tammy Duckworth (D, next 2028) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor, U.S. Senate (open), all 17 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+7 |
Illinois is the sixth-largest state in the country and one of the most Democratic at the federal level, but the 2024 election delivered the largest pro-Trump swing of any Midwest state, a warning sign that even the Chicago-anchored Democratic base is not as durable as it once was. The 2026 cycle is dominated by two contests: Governor J.B. Pritzker's re-election campaign for an unprecedented third term, and the open Senate seat created by Dick Durbin's retirement after 30 years in office. Both winners are likely to be Democrats, but both races have national implications, Pritzker is a 2028 Democratic presidential contender, and the Senate primary became a proxy fight over the future of the party. Our team here at ElectionOdds.com has all the current election odds for Illinois below.
Is Illinois a Red State or a Blue State?
Illinois is a solidly Democratic state at the statewide level, with the third-largest urban Democratic vote share in the country after California and New York. Kamala Harris carried Illinois by 11 points in 2024. Biden won it by 17 in 2020, Clinton by 17 in 2016, and Obama by 17 in 2012. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. Cook PVI rates Illinois D+7. Illinois was a swing state through the 1980s but has been firmly Democratic for the entire 21st century, although the 2024 margin compression suggests some erosion at the edges.
The downballot picture is mostly Democratic. Democrats hold the governorship under JB Pritzker, who is widely discussed as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats (Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth) and 14 of 17 U.S. House seats. Democrats hold both chambers of the state legislature with comfortable majorities. Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in Illinois since 2010 (Mark Kirk) and have not held the governorship since 2015-2019 (Bruce Rauner). Pritzker's tenure has been marked by aggressive policy moves on abortion rights, gun control, and labor protections.
Illinois's voting pattern is dominated by Chicago and its suburbs. Cook County (Chicago and inner suburbs) is the largest county in the state and votes Democratic by enormous margins. The collar counties (DuPage, Lake, Will, Kane, McHenry) have shifted from Republican-leaning to genuinely Democratic over the past two decades. Downstate Illinois, the term used for everything south of the Chicago metro, votes Republican by overwhelming margins. The contrast between Chicago and rural Illinois is among the starkest urban-rural divides in the country. The 2024 election saw a notable Trump improvement in the working-class Chicago suburbs and the Latino-heavy West Side, mirroring national trends.
The state's politics have been shaped by Chicago's traditional Democratic machine, the labor union strength of the manufacturing economy, and the unique role of Cook County government. Illinois has a long history of political corruption that has produced multiple ex-governors going to prison from both parties. JB Pritzker's potential 2028 presidential bid is the most visible Illinois Democratic effort to expand the state's national political footprint. Illinois has 19 electoral votes through 2030, but is projected to lose another seat after 2030 due to slow population growth.
Will Illinois become competitive? No, not at the presidential or U.S. Senate level. The Chicago metropolitan area is too large for downstate Illinois to compete with statewide. The 2024 margin compression is notable but Harris still won the state by 11 points. The state has had a Democratic governor for all but two of the last 23 years and is unlikely to break that pattern in 2026 or beyond. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Illinois Governor Betting Odds
J.B. Pritzker is running for an unprecedented third term. Illinois is one of 16 states without gubernatorial term limits, and Pritzker would be the first Illinois governor elected to a third consecutive term since Jim Thompson in 1982. He won the March 17, 2026 Democratic primary unopposed. Because Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton is running for Senate (covered below), Pritzker tapped former deputy governor Christian Mitchell as his new running mate.
The general election is a rematch of 2022, when Pritzker defeated former state senator Darren Bailey by 12.5 points. This is the first Illinois gubernatorial rematch since 1986. Bailey, who has spent the intervening years running for Congress and building his rural Illinois base, won the March 17 Republican primary with 54%. Prediction markets are pricing Pritzker as a strong favorite, he won his first two elections by 15.6 and 12.5 points respectively, and the political environment in 2026 has not improved for Republicans in solidly blue states.
The bigger market for Pritzker is his 2028 presidential prospects. Pritzker has openly positioned himself as a national alternative to the moderate wing of the Democratic Party, has spoken at out-of-state events from California to South Carolina, and has been featured in nearly every Democratic 2028 primary market. The size of his Illinois 2026 margin will be read as a signal of his strength heading into a national campaign. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Illinois Governor Election History
Illinois governorships have alternated between the parties and produced a remarkable run of scandal. Republican Jim Thompson, the last governor to win three terms, served from 1977 to 1991, followed by Republican Jim Edgar and then Republican George Ryan, who later went to federal prison on corruption charges. Democrat Rod Blagojevich won in 2002 and 2006 before being impeached, removed, and imprisoned, with Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn finishing out and winning a term of his own in 2010.
Republican Bruce Rauner unseated Quinn in 2014 in the party's last statewide breakthrough, but lost to J.B. Pritzker in 2018. Pritzker, a billionaire Hyatt heir, won by 15.6 points and then by 12.5 over Darren Bailey in 2022. His 2026 bid for a third term, a rematch with Bailey, would make him the first Illinois governor elected to three consecutive terms since Thompson in 1982. The markets price him as a strong favorite, and his margin is widely read as a barometer of his 2028 presidential standing.
Illinois Senate Betting Odds
This is the first open Illinois Senate seat since 1996. Dick Durbin, the 80-year-old Senate Minority Whip and second-ranking Senate Democrat, announced his retirement on April 23, 2025 after 30 years in the Senate. The Democratic primary that followed was one of the most expensive and closely watched primaries of the cycle, and the result is being read as a proxy fight over the direction of the national Democratic Party.
Three major candidates ran. Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton, who had Pritzker's endorsement and the backing of an Illinois Future PAC funded with $5 million from Pritzker himself, ran on Pritzker's record. Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi entered with $18 million in pre-existing campaign cash and benefited from approximately $10 million in outside spending from Fairshake, the cryptocurrency super PAC. Representative Robin Kelly, former chair of the Illinois Democratic Party, had backing from the Congressional Black Caucus.
Stratton won the March 17 primary, and Krishnamoorthi's substantial financial advantage was unable to overcome Pritzker's organizational support. Stratton is heavily favored in the November general election. The Republican nominee is former Illinois GOP chair Don Tracy. Illinois has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1992, Senator Peter Fitzgerald won that year and did not run for re-election in 2004. Tammy Duckworth, the state's other senator, is not on the 2026 ballot. Her next election is 2028. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Illinois U.S. Senate Election History
Illinois Senate seats have been Democratic strongholds for two decades. Dick Durbin held one seat for 30 years, rising to Senate Democratic whip, and the other seat has been Democratic since Barack Obama won it in 2004 on his way to national prominence, passing to Mark Kirk, the last Republican to win a Senate race in Illinois in 2010, and then to Tammy Duckworth in 2016.
Durbin's 2025 retirement announcement opened the first Illinois Senate seat since 1996 and set off an expensive, nationally watched Democratic primary that doubled as a proxy fight over the party's direction. Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton, backed by Governor Pritzker, won the March primary over the better-funded Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, and is heavily favored in November. No Republican has won an Illinois Senate race since 2010, and the markets treat the seat as safely Democratic.
Illinois House Betting Odds
Illinois has 17 House seats, currently split 14 Democrats to 3 Republicans, one of the most Democratic House delegations in the country relative to the state's overall political composition. This is the result of one of the most aggressive Democratic gerrymanders of the 2021 redistricting cycle, which Republicans have publicly cited as justification for the GOP-led mid-decade redistricting in Texas, Ohio, Missouri, and Florida. Illinois has not moved to redraw its map in response to those efforts.
With Democrats already holding 82% of Illinois House seats under the current map, there is little additional room for Democratic gains, and any attempt to redraw the map further would expose the gerrymander to potential federal court challenges. The Democratic-controlled state legislature instead focused on consolidating gains in 2026, defending incumbents in the four marginally competitive districts and supporting flips in the two GOP-held seats in northern and western Illinois that have shown gradual Democratic shift over the past decade.
The Republican-held seats are IL-12 (Mike Bost, southern Illinois, considered safe R), IL-15 (Mary Miller, central Illinois, safe R), and IL-16 (Darin LaHood, north-central Illinois, likely R). Prediction markets are not pricing any of these as competitive in 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
16 marketsIllinois U.S. House Election History
Illinois's House delegation has been shaped more by redistricting than by shifting public opinion. After the 2020 census, the Democratic-controlled legislature drew one of the most aggressive partisan gerrymanders in the country, converting a roughly even delegation into a 14-3 Democratic advantage despite the state voting Democratic by only single-to-low-double digits at the presidential level.
That map has held, and Republicans nationally have cited it to justify their own mid-decade redraws in Texas, Ohio, Missouri, and Florida. Illinois Democrats have not redrawn the map further, since they already hold 82 percent of the seats and additional aggression would risk court challenges. The three Republican seats, IL-12 (Mike Bost), IL-15 (Mary Miller), and IL-16 (Darin LaHood), are not rated competitive for 2026, and the markets price the delegation as stable.
Illinois Presidential Election Betting Odds
Illinois has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. Harris won by approximately 10 points in 2024, but the swing toward Trump from 2020 was about 7 points, the largest pro-Trump shift in any Midwest state, and the third-largest among solidly Democratic states behind only New York and California. Most of the shift came from collapsed Democratic turnout in Cook County rather than Republican vote growth.
For 2028, Illinois is not a competitive presidential market, but the state's significance is high because Pritzker is positioning for a national run. Markets pricing him at the 2028 Democratic frontrunner level draw substantial volume on Polymarket. The Illinois Senate primary outcome, and Pritzker's role in shaping it, was widely covered as a test of his clout heading into a presidential bid.
Illinois Presidential Election History
Illinois was a genuine presidential swing state into the 1980s, backing Republicans like Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, but it has voted Democratic in every election since 1992 as Chicago and its suburbs came to dominate the statewide vote. Democratic margins settled into a remarkably consistent band, roughly 17 points in 2012, 2016, and 2020, anchored by enormous Cook County majorities.
That consistency cracked in 2024. Harris won by about 11 points, but the 7-point swing toward Trump was the largest in any Midwestern state, driven mostly by collapsed Democratic turnout in Cook County rather than Republican growth. The 19 electoral votes remain safely Democratic and are not contested by national campaigns, but the compression is a real data point, and Illinois is on track to lose another electoral vote after the 2030 census.
Illinois Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Illinois politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Illinois Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Illinois's races. In the governor's race you will see Democratic incumbent J.B. Pritzker against Republican Darren Bailey, a rematch of 2022, with Pritzker holding a wide lead. In the open Senate race, Democrat Juliana Stratton, who won the March primary with Pritzker's backing, faces Republican Don Tracy.
Illinois polling is dominated by the gap between huge Cook County Democratic margins and heavily Republican downstate, so the topline rarely moves much. The number worth watching is the size of Pritzker's margin, which will be read as a signal of his 2028 presidential strength. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Illinois governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osage Research (R) | January 20–23, 2026 | 412 (LV) | Darren Bailey 57% · Ted Dabrowski 8% · Rick Heidner 9% · James Mendrick 4% · Undecided 22% |
| Emerson College/WGN-TV | January 3–5, 2026 | 432 (LV) | Darren Bailey 34% · Ted Dabrowski 8% · Rick Heidner 1% · James Mendrick 5% · Other 4% · Undecided 46% |
| Victory Research | November 20–24, 2025 | 1,208 (LV) | JB Pritzker (D) 54% · Darren Bailey (R) 34% · Undecided 12% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 4 hours ago.
Illinois U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Research | March 13–15, 2026 | 800 (LV) | Robin Kelly 14% · Raja Krishnamoorthi 32% · Juliana Stratton 29% · Undecided 25% |
| FM3 Research (D) | March 10–12, 2026 | 678 (LV) | Robin Kelly 18% · Raja Krishnamoorthi 33% · Juliana Stratton 38% · Other 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | March 9–10, 2026 | 700 (LV) | Robin Kelly 13% · Raja Krishnamoorthi 30% · Juliana Stratton 32% · Undecided 25% |
| Tulchin Research (D) | March 4–8, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Robin Kelly 12% · Raja Krishnamoorthi 39% · Juliana Stratton 28% · Other 4% · Undecided 15% |
| Change Research (D) | March 3–5, 2026 | 717 (LV) | Robin Kelly 14% · Raja Krishnamoorthi 36% · Juliana Stratton 26% · Other 8% · Undecided 16% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | March 2–3, 2026 | 577 (LV) | Robin Kelly 11% · Raja Krishnamoorthi 30% · Juliana Stratton 33% · Undecided 26% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Illinois under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 4 hours ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Illinois a red state or a blue state?
Illinois is a solidly Democratic state at the statewide level. Harris carried it by 11 points in 2024, Democrats hold both Senate seats and 14 of 17 House seats, and Cook PVI rates it D+7, though 2024 showed some erosion at the edges.
Is JB Pritzker favored to win a third term?
Yes. Pritzker won his first two races by 15.6 and 12.5 points, faces a 2022 rematch with Darren Bailey, and is rated a strong favorite. His margin is widely watched as a signal of his 2028 presidential standing.
Why is the Illinois Senate seat open in 2026?
Dick Durbin, the 80-year-old Senate Minority Whip, announced his retirement in April 2025 after 30 years. It is the first open Illinois Senate seat since 1996. Democrat Juliana Stratton won the primary and is heavily favored in November.
Why does Illinois have so many Democratic House seats?
The 14-3 Democratic delegation is the product of one of the most aggressive Democratic gerrymanders of the 2021 redistricting cycle. Republicans have cited it to justify their own mid-decade redraws in Texas, Ohio, Missouri, and Florida.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.