Iowa Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

For the first time since 1968, Iowa is holding an open-seat election for both governor and U.S. senator in the same year. Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds announced in April 2025 that she would not seek a third term. Republican Sen. Joni Ernst announced in September that she would not seek a third term either — a decision partly driven by backlash to her infamous May 2025 town hall response to a constituent worried about Medicaid cuts. Asked about preventable deaths from the Big Beautiful Bill Act, Ernst replied: "Well, we all are going to die," then doubled down with a video filmed in a cemetery. The combined effect: two open statewide federal races, the marquee Republican congressional primaries already complete (March 3), and Democrats targeting Iowa as one of the four Senate seats they need to flip the chamber. The political ground is genuinely moving for the first time since Obama carried the state in 2012. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Iowa governor betting odds

Kim Reynolds was elevated to the governorship in 2017 when Terry Branstad became ambassador to China, won full terms in 2018 (by 3 points) and 2022 (by 18). Her April 2025 retirement announcement created the first open Iowa gubernatorial race since 2010 — and the first since 2006 that Democrats viewed as winnable.

Republican primary (June 2, 2026): U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra (IA-4, western Iowa) is the heavy frontrunner. He has Trump's de facto support, the endorsement of Lt. Gov. Chris Cournoyer, and the backing of much of the state party establishment. Former state Rep. Adam Steen and a handful of less-prominent challengers round out the field.

Democratic primary: State Auditor Rob Sand is essentially uncontested. He is the only Democrat currently holding statewide office in Iowa — and is genuinely popular, having won re-election in 2022 even as Republicans swept everything else. Sand is the Democratic Party's singular hope for a statewide breakthrough.

The general election dynamic is straightforward: Iowa has voted Republican in the last three presidential races, Trump's 13-point 2024 margin matches the state's Cook PVI of R+6, and midterm cycles often punish the party in power federally. Sand's personal popularity is the variable Democrats are counting on. Cook rates Lean R.

Iowa presidential election betting odds

Iowa has shifted faster than almost any other state in the last decade. The state voted for Obama by 6 points in 2012, Trump by 9 in 2016, Trump by 8 in 2020, and Trump by 13 in 2024 — a 19-point swing in four cycles. The Iowa Caucuses are likely to remain a meaningful early Republican primary contest (the Democratic caucus structure has been effectively dismantled).

Cook PVI rates Iowa R+6. For 2028, the 6 electoral votes are safe Republican. Senator Chuck Grassley, 91 years old as of 2025 and Iowa's senior senator since 1981, has not announced 2028 plans. Iowa has the longest-serving governor (Terry Branstad), state attorney general (Tom Miller), and state treasurer (Mike Fitzgerald) in U.S. history — institutional longevity is part of the state's political DNA.

Iowa senate betting odds

Joni Ernst's September 2025 retirement announcement transformed this from a competitive but uphill Democratic challenge into an open-seat fight. Trump-endorsed U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson (IA-2, eastern Iowa) entered immediately and is the Republican primary frontrunner. She brings what strategists view as fewer political vulnerabilities than Ernst would have carried — particularly the "we all are going to die" comment that became a national flashpoint. The May 2025 town hall remark, given in response to a constituent's concerns about Medicaid cuts in the Big Beautiful Bill Act, was followed by a video Ernst filmed in a cemetery that observers across the political spectrum called dismissive.

Republican primary: Hinson faces former state Sen. Jim Carlin (a 2022 Senate candidate) and Libertarian-turned-Republican Joshua Smith (2024 Libertarian presidential nominee). Hinson is heavily favored.

Democratic primary: A five-way contest with no clear frontrunner. State Sen. Zach Wahls (Coralville, former Senate Minority Leader), state Rep. Josh Turek (Council Bluffs), Des Moines school board chair Jackie Norris, veteran Nathan Sage, and former state lawmaker Bob Krause. The eventual nominee will face Hinson with limited statewide name recognition but in a midterm environment that historically favors the out-party.

Democrats targeting Iowa Senate as one of four seats they need to retake the chamber. Cook rates Lean R.

Iowa house betting odds

Two of Iowa's four congressional seats are open because the incumbents are running for higher office, and two others are among the closest House races in the country. IA-2 (Hinson's seat, eastern Iowa including Cedar Rapids) is open because Hinson is running for Senate. IA-4 (Feenstra's seat, western Iowa) is open because Feenstra is running for governor. Both seats are safely Republican on paper but are now competitive open primaries.

The two seats most likely to flip are IA-1 (Mariannette Miller-Meeks, southeastern Iowa) and IA-3 (Zach Nunn, central Iowa around Des Moines). Both Republicans won 2024 by less than 1 point each — IA-1 by 800 votes, IA-3 by less than 1 point. National Democrats have flagged both seats as top targets. Iowa's congressional map was drawn in 2021 by the state's nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency; no mid-decade redistricting.

Primary June 2, 2026.