2026 Election Tracker
Mississippi Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Mississippi 2026 election odds for Cindy Hyde-Smith's Senate reelection vs Democrat Scott Colom, plus all four House races including Bennie Thompson's MS-2.
| Electoral votes | 6 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 61% / Harris 38% (R+23 margin) |
| Current governor | Tate Reeves (R), next election 2027 |
| U.S. senators | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R, on 2026 ballot), Roger Wicker (R, next 2030) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | U.S. Senate, all 4 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | R+12 |
Mississippi has one significant federal race in 2026, and that's Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith's bid for a second full term. She won the March 10 Republican primary with 81 percent of the vote and faces Democratic district attorney Scott Colom in November. Hyde-Smith has won three Senate races already, the 2018 special, the 2018 full election, and the 2020 contest, and none of them were the easy incumbent waltz typical of Mississippi senators. Her opponents have been able to raise money. The state's Black voter base, roughly 38 percent of the population, gives Mississippi Democrats a higher floor than other Deep South states. Roger Wicker is the senior senator and not on the ballot. Governor Tate Reeves was elected in 2023 and is next up in 2027. Four House seats, three Republican, one Democrat, Bennie Thompson in the Delta-based MS-2. Our Election Odds for Mississippi on ElectionOdds.com covers all these races and might even have props from time to time.
Is Mississippi a Red State or a Blue State?
Mississippi is one of the most consistently Republican states in the country at the federal level, despite having the largest Black population share of any state. Trump carried Mississippi by 23 points in 2024, by 16.5 in 2020, and by 17.8 in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980 except for Jimmy Carter's 1976 win. Cook PVI rates Mississippi R+11. Mississippi's combination of deep racial polarization in voting patterns and overwhelming white Republican majorities produces some of the most predictable statewide election results in the country.
The downballot picture is overwhelmingly Republican. Republicans hold the governorship under Tate Reeves, who won reelection by 3.2 points in 2023 in one of the closer Mississippi gubernatorial races in recent years. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (Roger Wicker and Cindy Hyde-Smith), 3 of 4 U.S. House seats, and large majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The lone Democratic U.S. House seat is the 2nd District, anchored in the Mississippi Delta, which has been held by Bennie Thompson since 1993. Mississippi has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1999.
Mississippi's voting pattern is driven almost entirely by racial polarization. The state is roughly 58% white and 38% Black, the highest Black population share of any state. White Mississippians vote Republican by margins approaching 90%, the highest racial polarization of any state. Black Mississippians vote Democratic by similar margins. The math has not been close for any statewide Democrat in over two decades. The Delta counties along the Mississippi River, with large Black majorities, vote Democratic. The rest of the state, particularly the suburbs around Jackson and the rural Pine Belt and northeast, votes overwhelmingly Republican.
The state's politics have been shaped by its long history of racial division, its agricultural economy, its strong evangelical Protestant culture, and the slow but real growth of urban Jackson and the Gulf Coast. The 2023 gubernatorial race between Reeves and Democrat Brandon Presley produced an unusually close result driven partly by anti-corruption messaging tied to a state welfare-fraud scandal, but did not change the broader Republican lock on the state. Mississippi has 6 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Mississippi become competitive? Not in the near term. The state's racial polarization in voting is the most extreme in the country, and the demographic shifts needed to change the partisan math are not happening. Democratic competitiveness would require either dramatic improvement among white voters (which is not visible in recent results) or a dramatic increase in Black voter registration and turnout (which has been a longtime Democratic project that has produced gradual but not transformative gains). For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Mississippi Governor Betting Odds
Mississippi's gubernatorial cycle runs in odd-numbered years, so the governor's office isn't on the 2026 ballot. Tate Reeves won re-election in 2023 by 3.2 points over Democrat Brandon Presley, the closest Mississippi gubernatorial margin in two decades. His second term ends in January 2028, and Mississippi's term-limit rule blocks him from seeking a third. The next Mississippi gubernatorial election is November 2027.
Names being floated for the open seat include Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann, AG Lynn Fitch, businessman Thomas Duff, and Reeves himself if he were to challenge the term-limit interpretation. Democrats are again betting on Presley as their best statewide candidate. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Mississippi Governor Election History
Mississippi's governorship completed its Republican turn early this century. Democrat Ronnie Musgrove won a contested 1999 race decided by the legislature and served one term, but lost in 2003 to Republican Haley Barbour, and Musgrove remains the last Democrat to hold the office. Barbour served two terms, followed by Republicans Phil Bryant and Tate Reeves.
There is no 2026 governor's race, Mississippi votes in odd years. Reeves won a second term in 2023 by just 3.2 points over Democrat Brandon Presley, the closest margin in two decades, amid fallout from a state welfare-fraud scandal. Reeves is term-limited, so the 2027 race is open, with Republicans like Delbert Hosemann and Lynn Fitch floated and Democrats again eyeing Presley.
Mississippi Senate Betting Odds
Hyde-Smith was appointed in April 2018 to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Thad Cochran. She won the November 2018 special election against former Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy by 8 points, then the regular 2020 election against Espy again by 10 points. Both races involved Espy out-raising her, unheard of for a Democrat against a Republican Mississippi incumbent. Her 2026 race is her chance to finally have the easy incumbent re-election that other Mississippi senators take for granted.
Republican primary (March 10, 2026): Hyde-Smith defeated physician Sarah Adlakha with 81% of the vote. Adlakha ran on term limits and political outsider credentials but lacked statewide infrastructure. Democratic primary: District attorney Scott Colom won with 73% of the vote, defeating Marine Corps veteran Albert Littell and Priscilla Williams-Till (a cousin of lynching victim Emmett Till). Colom serves as DA for Noxubee, Clay, Lowndes, and Oktibbeha counties. He's the most experienced Democratic Senate nominee Mississippi has had since Espy. Independent Ty Pinkins, a Delta-based attorney who previously ran as a Democrat against Wicker in 2024 (lost by 23 points), is on the general election ballot. He left the Democratic Party citing frustration with inaction on issues facing the state.
Trump endorsed Hyde-Smith. Cook rates Solid Republican. The general election dynamic favors Hyde-Smith heavily, but Mississippi's 38% Black voter share creates a structural floor for Democrats that 22-point margins don't necessarily reflect, especially with a candidate like Colom who has won contested elections in heavily Black districts. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Mississippi U.S. Senate Election History
Mississippi's Senate seats have been Republican for decades, but its races have been less lopsided than most Deep South states because of the state's large Black electorate. Roger Wicker has held one seat since 2007. Cindy Hyde-Smith was appointed to the other in 2018 to replace the retiring Thad Cochran and won a special election and a full term, both against well-funded Democrat Mike Espy.
Hyde-Smith's 2026 re-election is her first without a marquee opponent of Espy's stature; she took 81 percent of the March primary and faces Democratic district attorney Scott Colom. Trump endorsed her and Cook rates the race Solid Republican, though the state's 38 percent Black voter share gives Democrats a higher structural floor than elsewhere in the region.
Mississippi House Betting Odds
The Mississippi delegation has been 3R-1D for over a decade. Republicans hold MS-1 (Trent Kelly, northern Mississippi), MS-3 (Michael Guest, central Mississippi), and MS-4 (Mike Ezell, Gulf Coast). Democrat Bennie Thompson holds MS-2, the Delta-based majority-Black district he has represented since 1993. All four incumbents are running for re-election. Thompson faces two Democratic primary challengers; Trent Kelly has no Republican primary challenge.
The competitive question for 2026 is whether MS-2 stays Democratic given the post-Callais Supreme Court ruling on racial gerrymandering that may invite challenges to majority-Black districts. As of mid-May 2026, no challenge has been filed to Mississippi's current map and no mid-decade redistricting has been announced. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
3 marketsMississippi U.S. House Election History
Mississippi's four-seat delegation has been 3-1 Republican for over a decade. The single Democratic seat is MS-2, the majority-Black Delta district Bennie Thompson has held since 1993, the state's only Black member of Congress and a fixture of its delegation. The three Republican seats are safely red.
All four incumbents are seeking re-election in 2026. The live question is whether MS-2 remains secure given the Supreme Court's Callais ruling weakening Voting Rights Act protections for majority-Black districts, which could invite a future map challenge. As of mid-May 2026, no challenge had been filed and Mississippi had announced no mid-decade redistricting.
Mississippi Presidential Election Betting Odds
Mississippi has voted Republican in every presidential cycle since 1980, with Trump's 23-point 2024 margin roughly matching his 2020 and 2016 performances. Cook PVI rates Mississippi R+12. For 2028, the 6 electoral votes are safe Republican.
No Mississippi politician currently appears in 2028 presidential conversations. Sen. Roger Wicker, the chair of Senate Armed Services, is mentioned occasionally in long-shot vice presidential markets but has not signaled interest. The state's relatively small population and lack of cycle-breaking political figures keeps it out of national presidential strategy.
Mississippi Presidential Election History
Mississippi has been one of the most reliably Republican states in presidential politics, voting GOP in every election since 1980, the lone modern exception being favorite son Jimmy Carter in 1976. Its results are among the most predictable in the country because voting is so sharply polarized by race.
Trump's margins ranged from the mid-teens to about 23 points in 2024. Cook PVI rates the state R+12, and its 6 electoral votes are safely Republican. With a small population and few national figures, Mississippi stays out of presidential strategy, though Senator Roger Wicker occasionally surfaces in long-shot vice-presidential talk.
Mississippi Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Mississippi politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Mississippi Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Mississippi's one significant federal race, Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith's bid for a second full term against Democratic district attorney Scott Colom, with independent Ty Pinkins also on the ballot. There is no governor race this cycle, Tate Reeves is up in 2027.
Mississippi rarely produces close statewide results, but its 38 percent Black electorate gives Democrats a higher floor than other Deep South states, so the Hyde-Smith margin is worth watching even as Cook rates the race Solid Republican. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Mississippi governor polls
No Mississippi governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Mississippi U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research (D) | April 8–12, 2026 | 500 (LV) | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 42% · Scott Colom (D) 39% · Ty Pinkins (I) 6% · Undecided 13% |
| Impact Research (D) | April 8–12, 2026 | 500 (LV) | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 33% · Generic Opponent 53% · Undecided 14% |
| Impact Research (D) | June 18–22, 2025 | 500 (RV) | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 51% · Scott Colom (D) 38% · Undecided 11% |
| Impact Research (D) | June 18–22, 2025 | 500 (RV) | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 38% · Generic Opponent 46% · Undecided 16% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Mississippi under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 3 hours ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Mississippi a red state or a blue state?
Mississippi is one of the most consistently Republican states at the federal level, despite having the largest Black population share of any state. Trump carried it by 23 points in 2024, and Cook PVI rates it R+11 to R+12. Its voting is the most racially polarized in the country.
Who is Cindy Hyde-Smith running against?
Democratic district attorney Scott Colom, who won his primary with 73%, plus independent Ty Pinkins. Hyde-Smith, seeking a second full term, took 81% of the Republican primary and has Trump's endorsement. Cook rates the race Solid Republican.
Is there a Mississippi governor race in 2026?
No. Mississippi elects governors in odd years, so Republican Tate Reeves' term runs through 2027. The 2026 ballot is the Senate seat and all four House seats.
Will MS-2 stay Democratic?
It is the only Democratic seat, held by Bennie Thompson since 1993 in the majority-Black Delta. The open question for 2026 is whether the Supreme Court's Callais ruling on racial gerrymandering invites a challenge, but as of mid-May 2026 none had been filed and no redistricting was announced.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.