Mississippi Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Mississippi has one significant federal race in 2026, and that's Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith's bid for a second full term. She won the March 10 Republican primary with 81 percent of the vote and faces Democratic district attorney Scott Colom in November. Hyde-Smith has won three Senate races already — the 2018 special, the 2018 full election, and the 2020 contest — and none of them were the easy incumbent waltz typical of Mississippi senators. Her opponents have been able to raise money. The state's Black voter base, roughly 38 percent of the population, gives Mississippi Democrats a higher floor than other Deep South states. Roger Wicker is the senior senator and not on the ballot. Governor Tate Reeves was elected in 2023 and is next up in 2027. Four House seats, three Republican, one Democrat — Bennie Thompson in the Delta-based MS-2. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Mississippi governor betting odds

Mississippi's gubernatorial cycle runs in odd-numbered years, so the governor's office isn't on the 2026 ballot. Tate Reeves won re-election in 2023 by 3.2 points over Democrat Brandon Presley — the closest Mississippi gubernatorial margin in two decades. His second term ends in January 2028, and Mississippi's term-limit rule blocks him from seeking a third.

The next Mississippi gubernatorial election is November 2027. Names being floated for the open seat include Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann, AG Lynn Fitch, businessman Thomas Duff, and Reeves himself if he were to challenge the term-limit interpretation. Democrats are again betting on Presley as their best statewide candidate.

Mississippi presidential election betting odds

Mississippi has voted Republican in every presidential cycle since 1980, with Trump's 23-point 2024 margin roughly matching his 2020 and 2016 performances. Cook PVI rates Mississippi R+12.

For 2028, the 6 electoral votes are safe Republican. No Mississippi politician currently appears in 2028 presidential conversations. Sen. Roger Wicker, the chair of Senate Armed Services, is mentioned occasionally in long-shot vice presidential markets but has not signaled interest. The state's relatively small population and lack of cycle-breaking political figures keeps it out of national presidential strategy.

Mississippi senate betting odds

Hyde-Smith was appointed in April 2018 to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Thad Cochran. She won the November 2018 special election against former Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy by 8 points, then the regular 2020 election against Espy again by 10 points. Both races involved Espy out-raising her — unheard of for a Democrat against a Republican Mississippi incumbent. Her 2026 race is her chance to finally have the easy incumbent re-election that other Mississippi senators take for granted.

Republican primary (March 10, 2026): Hyde-Smith defeated physician Sarah Adlakha with 81% of the vote. Adlakha ran on term limits and political outsider credentials but lacked statewide infrastructure.

Democratic primary: District attorney Scott Colom won with 73% of the vote, defeating Marine Corps veteran Albert Littell and Priscilla Williams-Till (a cousin of lynching victim Emmett Till). Colom serves as DA for Noxubee, Clay, Lowndes, and Oktibbeha counties. He's the most experienced Democratic Senate nominee Mississippi has had since Espy.

Independent Ty Pinkins, a Delta-based attorney who previously ran as a Democrat against Wicker in 2024 (lost by 23 points), is on the general election ballot. He left the Democratic Party citing frustration with inaction on issues facing the state.

Trump endorsed Hyde-Smith. Cook rates Solid Republican. The general election dynamic favors Hyde-Smith heavily — but Mississippi's 38% Black voter share creates a structural floor for Democrats that 22-point margins don't necessarily reflect, especially with a candidate like Colom who has won contested elections in heavily Black districts.

Mississippi house betting odds

The Mississippi delegation has been 3R-1D for over a decade. Republicans hold MS-1 (Trent Kelly, northern Mississippi), MS-3 (Michael Guest, central Mississippi), and MS-4 (Mike Ezell, Gulf Coast). Democrat Bennie Thompson holds MS-2, the Delta-based majority-Black district he has represented since 1993.

All four incumbents are running for re-election. Thompson faces two Democratic primary challengers; Trent Kelly has no Republican primary challenge. The competitive question for 2026 is whether MS-2 stays Democratic given the post-Callais Supreme Court ruling on racial gerrymandering that may invite challenges to majority-Black districts. As of mid-May 2026, no challenge has been filed to Mississippi's current map and no mid-decade redistricting has been announced.