New Hampshire Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

When Jeanne Shaheen announced her retirement on March 12, 2025, she ended a 30-year political career — first woman elected as both governor and U.S. senator, first female ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee — and handed Senate Democrats one of the toughest open-seat defenses on the 2026 map. New Hampshire is the kind of state where the underlying numbers don't quite tell the story. Harris won by 2.8 points, the smallest Democratic presidential margin in any state she carried. Republican Kelly Ayotte won the governorship the same night by 9 points. The entire congressional delegation is Democratic, but Republicans control both legislative chambers and have a supermajority in the state Senate. The 2026 ballot turns on a single Senate race that both parties view as essential to the chamber's balance, with secondary stakes in the open NH-1 House seat that Chris Pappas is vacating to run statewide. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

New Hampshire governor betting odds

The governor's office isn't on the 2026 ballot. Kelly Ayotte, the former U.S. senator (2011-2017), won 2024 by 9 points over Democratic former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig. Ayotte succeeded fellow Republican Chris Sununu, who served four two-year terms (New Hampshire is one of two states with 2-year gubernatorial terms; Vermont is the other) and declined to run for a fifth in 2024.

The next New Hampshire gubernatorial election is November 2028. Ayotte will be eligible for a second term — though New Hampshire's 2-year cycle means she'll face voters again before then in 2026 only indirectly, through downballot races. Names being floated for the 2028 Democratic gubernatorial primary include Joyce Craig (rematch), Executive Councilors, and members of the state delegation.

New Hampshire presidential election betting odds

Harris's 2.8-point New Hampshire win was the smallest Democratic presidential margin in any state Harris carried in 2024 — narrower than Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. Trump improved his New Hampshire performance by over 4 points from his 2020 margin of defeat. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2000 except for John Kerry's 2004 loss, but the margins have steadily compressed.

Cook PVI rates New Hampshire D+1 — the most competitive D-leaning presidential state in the country. The 4 electoral votes will be a genuine swing-state target for 2028. Republican strength at the state level (Ayotte, supermajorities) combined with Democratic strength in the congressional delegation has produced one of the most genuinely split-ticket electorates in the country.

New Hampshire senate betting odds

The open seat is the marquee race. Shaheen's March 2025 retirement transformed this from a competitive incumbent race into one of the four Senate seats Democrats absolutely need to retain to have any chance at the majority.

Democratic primary (September 8, 2026):

• U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-1, serving since 2019), endorsed by Shaheen — the institutional frontrunner.
• Andru Volinsky, former Executive Councilor (2017-2021), 2020 gubernatorial primary candidate — the progressive option.
• Maura Sullivan, former assistant Defense Secretary for public affairs under Obama, Marine veteran, runs as a centrist with national-security credentials. She is also a candidate for the open NH-1 House seat.

Republican primary:

• Scott Brown, former Massachusetts senator (2010-2013), former U.S. ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (Trump first term), and the 2014 nominee who lost to Shaheen by 3 points. Brown announced "due diligence" in November 2024 and has been openly campaigning since.
• Former Sen. John E. Sununu (held this exact seat 2003-2009 before losing to Shaheen in 2008). His return for a rematch would be politically extraordinary.
• State Sen. Dan Innis (Senate district 24), endorsed Sununu and is running for NH-1.
• Former Gov. Chris Sununu, brother of John, was the GOP recruitment target in 2022 (declined) and has said he is "considering" 2026 — though he has not declared as of mid-May 2026.

Cook rates Lean Democratic. The historical pattern: Republicans haven't won a New Hampshire Senate race since 2010.

New Hampshire house betting odds

Chris Pappas's seat is the structural story of the New Hampshire House race in 2026. NH-1 is OPEN — Pappas's seat, which he is vacating to run for Senate. The Democratic primary for NH-1 includes Maura Sullivan (the former DoD official also running for Senate, hedging her bets in two races) and other candidates. The general election will be competitive — NH-1 is the more conservative of the two districts and includes Manchester and the seacoast.

NH-2 (Maggie Goodlander, elected 2024 to replace Annie Kuster) is running for re-election. Goodlander, a former DOJ antitrust attorney and former Jake Sullivan adviser, won 2024 by 4 points in what was historically a more Democratic-leaning district. Republicans are targeting NH-2 as a pickup opportunity.

No mid-decade redistricting in New Hampshire. Primary September 8, 2026.