2026 Election Tracker
New Hampshire Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
New Hampshire 2026 election odds for the open Senate seat after Jeanne Shaheen's retirement, the open NH-1 House seat after Chris Pappas, and NH-2 House race.
| Electoral votes | 4 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris 51% / Trump 48% (D+3 margin) |
| Current governor | Kelly Ayotte (R), next election 2028 |
| U.S. senators | Jeanne Shaheen (D, retiring), Maggie Hassan (D, next 2028) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | U.S. Senate (open), both 2 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+1 |
When Jeanne Shaheen announced her retirement on March 12, 2025, she ended a 30-year political career, first woman elected as both governor and U.S. senator, first female ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and handed Senate Democrats one of the toughest open-seat defenses on the 2026 map. New Hampshire is the kind of state where the underlying numbers don't quite tell the story. Harris won by 2.8 points, the smallest Democratic presidential margin in any state she carried. Republican Kelly Ayotte won the governorship the same night by 9 points. The entire congressional delegation is Democratic, but Republicans control both legislative chambers and have a supermajority in the state Senate. The 2026 ballot turns on a single Senate race that both parties view as essential to the chamber's balance, with secondary stakes in the open NH-1 House seat that Chris Pappas is vacating to run statewide. This page will cover all of the New Hampshire election odds and the homepage of ElectionOdds.com will handle the rest.
Is New Hampshire a Red State or a Blue State?
New Hampshire is a Democratic-leaning swing state with a stronger Republican presence than its presidential results suggest. Kamala Harris carried New Hampshire by 2.8 points in 2024. Biden won it by 7.3 in 2020, Clinton won it by 0.4 in 2016, and Obama won it by 5.6 in 2012 and 9.6 in 2008. Cook PVI rates New Hampshire D+1. The state has voted Democratic in seven of the last eight presidential elections but is competitive enough to remain on the battleground list in close cycles.
The downballot picture has historically favored Republicans. Republican Chris Sununu held the governorship from 2017 to January 2025 and won three of his four elections by double-digit margins. He declined to run for reelection in 2024 and was succeeded by Republican Kelly Ayotte, who defeated Democrat Joyce Craig by 8.5 points. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats (Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan) and both U.S. House seats. Republicans hold both chambers of the state legislature. The state's combination of Republican executive office and Democratic federal representation is unusual.
New Hampshire's voting pattern is shaped by its small size and unique political culture. The state has only 1.4 million residents but holds the first-in-the-nation presidential primary, which gives it outsized political weight. Hillsborough County (Manchester and Nashua) contains roughly a third of the state's population and is competitive but tilts Republican. Strafford and Grafton counties, anchored by Durham (UNH) and Hanover (Dartmouth), vote heavily Democratic. The rural Coos County in the north and the Lakes Region have shifted toward Republicans, while the southeast (Portsmouth, Rockingham County) has shifted toward Democrats.
The state has no income or sales tax, which has shaped its political culture toward fiscal conservatism even as social attitudes have moved leftward. New Hampshire was the first state to legalize same-sex marriage by legislative action (2009) and has consistently elected Republicans who are moderate on social issues. The state's lack of a major media market means it is one of the least-expensive battleground states to compete in. New Hampshire has 4 electoral votes through 2030.
Will New Hampshire stay competitive? Yes, particularly in federal races. The state's slim Democratic lean is built on demographic patterns (well-educated white voters, growing suburban populations near the Massachusetts border) that mirror the broader Democratic coalition, but it sits next to a deeply liberal Massachusetts that drives political contrast. The 2026 U.S. Senate race for Shaheen's seat is expected to be one of the most competitive in the country. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
New Hampshire Governor Betting Odds
The governor's office isn't on the 2026 ballot. Kelly Ayotte, the former U.S. senator (2011-2017), won 2024 by 9 points over Democratic former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig. Ayotte succeeded fellow Republican Chris Sununu, who served four two-year terms (New Hampshire is one of two states with 2-year gubernatorial terms; Vermont is the other) and declined to run for a fifth in 2024.
The next New Hampshire gubernatorial election is November 2028. Ayotte will be eligible for a second term, though New Hampshire's 2-year cycle means she'll face voters again before then in 2026 only indirectly, through downballot races. Names being floated for the 2028 Democratic gubernatorial primary include Joyce Craig (rematch), Executive Councilors, and members of the state delegation. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
New Hampshire Governor Election History
New Hampshire is one of only two states, with Vermont, that elects its governor to two-year terms, which produces frequent contests but, in recent years, durable Republican control of the office. Democrat John Lynch won four terms from 2005 to 2013, the last sustained Democratic run, followed by Democrat Maggie Hassan, who left for the Senate in 2017.
Republican Chris Sununu then held the office for four two-year terms through January 2025, winning three of them by double digits, before declining to run again. Fellow Republican Kelly Ayotte, a former U.S. senator, won the open 2024 race over Joyce Craig by about 9 points. There is no 2026 governor's race; the next is in 2028, when Ayotte will be eligible for a second term.
New Hampshire Senate Betting Odds
The open seat is the marquee race. Shaheen's March 2025 retirement transformed this from a competitive incumbent race into one of the four Senate seats Democrats absolutely need to retain to have any chance at the majority.
Democratic primary (September 8, 2026): U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-1, serving since 2019), endorsed by Shaheen, the institutional frontrunner. Andru Volinsky, former Executive Councilor (2017-2021), 2020 gubernatorial primary candidate, the progressive option. Maura Sullivan, former assistant Defense Secretary for public affairs under Obama, Marine veteran, runs as a centrist with national-security credentials. She is also a candidate for the open NH-1 House seat.
Republican primary: Scott Brown, former Massachusetts senator (2010-2013), former U.S. ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (Trump first term), and the 2014 nominee who lost to Shaheen by 3 points. Brown announced "due diligence" in November 2024 and has been openly campaigning since. Former Sen. John E. Sununu (held this exact seat 2003-2009 before losing to Shaheen in 2008). His return for a rematch would be politically extraordinary. State Sen. Dan Innis (Senate district 24), endorsed Sununu and is running for NH-1. Former Gov. Chris Sununu, brother of John, was the GOP recruitment target in 2022 (declined) and has said he is "considering" 2026, though he has not declared as of mid-May 2026.
Cook rates Lean Democratic. The historical pattern: Republicans haven't won a New Hampshire Senate race since 2010. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
New Hampshire U.S. Senate Election History
New Hampshire's two Senate seats are both held by Democratic women, Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan, and Republicans have not won a Senate race in the state since 2010. Shaheen, the first woman elected both governor and senator in the state, has held her seat since 2009, twice defeating Republican challengers including Scott Brown in 2014.
Her March 2025 retirement opened one of the most competitive seats on the 2026 map and one of four Democrats must hold to have any path to the majority. Democrat Chris Pappas, endorsed by Shaheen, is the institutional frontrunner against a still-forming Republican field that could include Scott Brown or one of the Sununus. Cook rates the race Lean Democratic.
New Hampshire House Betting Odds
Chris Pappas's seat is the structural story of the New Hampshire House race in 2026. NH-1 is OPEN, Pappas's seat, which he is vacating to run for Senate. The Democratic primary for NH-1 includes Maura Sullivan (the former DoD official also running for Senate, hedging her bets in two races) and other candidates. The general election will be competitive, NH-1 is the more conservative of the two districts and includes Manchester and the seacoast.
NH-2 (Maggie Goodlander, elected 2024 to replace Annie Kuster) is running for re-election. Goodlander, a former DOJ antitrust attorney and former Jake Sullivan adviser, won 2024 by 4 points in what was historically a more Democratic-leaning district. Republicans are targeting NH-2 as a pickup opportunity. No mid-decade redistricting in New Hampshire. Primary September 8, 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
2 marketsNew Hampshire U.S. House Election History
New Hampshire's two House seats have swung between the parties over the years but are currently both Democratic. NH-1, anchored in Manchester and the seacoast, is historically the more competitive and conservative of the two; NH-2, covering the western and northern parts of the state, has leaned more Democratic.
NH-1 is open in 2026 because Democrat Chris Pappas is running for Senate, making it a genuine general-election battleground. In NH-2, Democrat Maggie Goodlander, who won by 4 points in 2024 to succeed Annie Kuster, faces a Republican target effort. New Hampshire did not pursue mid-decade redistricting.
New Hampshire Presidential Election Betting Odds
Harris's 2.8-point New Hampshire win was the smallest Democratic presidential margin in any state Harris carried in 2024, narrower than Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. Trump improved his New Hampshire performance by over 4 points from his 2020 margin of defeat. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2000 except for John Kerry's 2004 loss, but the margins have steadily compressed. Cook PVI rates New Hampshire D+1, the most competitive D-leaning presidential state in the country.
The 4 electoral votes will be a genuine swing-state target for 2028. Republican strength at the state level (Ayotte, supermajorities) combined with Democratic strength in the congressional delegation has produced one of the most genuinely split-ticket electorates in the country.
New Hampshire Presidential Election History
New Hampshire is the most competitive Democratic-leaning presidential state in the country, having voted Democratic in seven of the last eight elections, the lone exception being John Kerry's narrow 2004 loss. Its margins have been small and volatile, from Clinton's 0.4-point win in 2016 to Biden's 7.3 in 2020.
Harris carried it by just 2.8 points in 2024, the smallest margin in any state she won, narrower even than Wisconsin or Michigan. Cook PVI rates the state D+1, and its 4 electoral votes will be a genuine 2028 target. Combined with Republican strength in state government, the result is one of the most split-ticket electorates anywhere.
New Hampshire Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to New Hampshire politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
New Hampshire Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for New Hampshire's races, all turning on the open Senate seat left by Jeanne Shaheen's retirement, one of the four seats Democrats must hold for any shot at the majority. Democrat Chris Pappas, the Shaheen-endorsed frontrunner, faces a Republican field that may include Scott Brown or one of the Sununus. There is no governor race this cycle.
With NH-1 open because Pappas is running statewide and NH-2 a Republican target, all three federal races are live in a genuine swing state, Harris carried it by under 3 points. Cook rates the Senate race Lean Democratic. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
New Hampshire governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | April 17–21, 2026 | 1,117 (LV) | Kelly Ayotte (R) 47% · Cinde Warmington (D) 39% · Other 4% · Undecided 10% |
| Saint Anselm College | March 16–18, 2026 | 691 (RV) | Jon Kiper 13% · Cinde Warmington 40% · Undecided 47% |
| Saint Anselm College | March 16–18, 2026 | 1,491 (RV) | Kelly Ayotte (R) 46% · Cinde Warmington (D) 39% · Undecided 15% |
| Saint Anselm College | March 16–18, 2026 | 1,491 (RV) | Kelly Ayotte (R) 45% · Jon Kiper (D) 31% · Undecided 24% |
| yes. every kid. (D) | January 28–29, 2026 | 563 (LV) | Kelly Ayotte (R) 47% · Jon Kiper (D) 37% · Undecided 16% |
| University of New Hampshire | January 15–19, 2026 | 2,053 (LV) | Kelly Ayotte (R) 50% · Jon Kiper (D) 39% · Other 2% · Undecided 9% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 3 hours ago.
New Hampshire U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NHJournal/Praecones Analytica | April 22 – May 13, 2026 | 350 (RV) | Scott Brown 27% · John E. Sununu 73% |
| 270 to Win | March 26 – April 23, 2026 | Scott Brown 19% · John E. Sununu 52% · Other/Undecided 29% | |
| 270toWin | March 26 – April 23, 2026 | Chris Pappas 50% · Scott Brown 38.5% · Other/Undecided 11.5% | |
| 270toWin | March 26 – April 23, 2026 | Chris Pappas 47% · John E. Sununu 43% · Other/Undecided 10% | |
| University of New Hampshire | April 17–21, 2026 | 481 (LV) | Karishma Manzur 18% · Chris Pappas 61% · Jared Sullivan 1% · Other 1% · Undecided 18% |
| University of New Hampshire | April 17–21, 2026 | 562 (LV) | Scott Brown 19% · John E. Sununu 56% · Other 4% · Undecided 21% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in New Hampshire under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 3 hours ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is New Hampshire a red state or a blue state?
New Hampshire is a Democratic-leaning swing state with a stronger Republican presence than its presidential results suggest. Harris carried it by just 2.8 points in 2024, its entire congressional delegation is Democratic, but Republicans hold the governorship and both legislative chambers. Cook PVI rates it D+1.
Why is the New Hampshire Senate race so important?
Jeanne Shaheen's retirement opened one of the most competitive seats on the 2026 map, and it is one of four seats Democrats must retain to have any chance at the majority. Democrat Chris Pappas is the frontrunner against a forming Republican field; Cook rates it Lean Democratic.
Is there a New Hampshire governor race in 2026?
No. Republican Kelly Ayotte won in 2024, and although New Hampshire uses two-year terms, the next gubernatorial election is in 2028. The 2026 ballot is the open Senate seat and both House seats.
Which New Hampshire House seats are competitive?
Both. NH-1 is open because Democrat Chris Pappas is running for Senate, making the Manchester-and-seacoast seat a battleground, and NH-2, held by Democrat Maggie Goodlander, who won by 4 points in 2024, is a Republican pickup target.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.