Oregon Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Oregon's federal ballot is a study in pre-determined outcomes with one possible exception. Governor Tina Kotek is running for a second term; her 2022 win was a 3-point squeaker but she's facing the same Republican opponent (Christine Drazan) under more favorable conditions. Senator Jeff Merkley is running for a fourth term against no serious challenger. The state's 6 House seats — currently 5 Democrats and 1 Republican — could see one competitive race in OR-5, the suburban Portland seat Janelle Bynum flipped from Republican hands in 2024. Tina Kotek explicitly declined to redistrict despite the national mid-decade redistricting fight. Primary May 19. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Oregon governor betting odds

Kotek's 2022 win was the closest Oregon gubernatorial race in decades — she beat Christine Drazan by 3.4 points in a three-way race that included independent Betsy Johnson, a former Democrat. Drazan is running again. Kotek is running again. The 2026 election is functionally a rematch under different circumstances: Drazan has been appointed to a state Senate seat in the interim, Kotek's job approval has held in the high 40s, and the political environment that produced 2022's tight race (with Johnson siphoning votes from both parties) is unlikely to repeat.

Other Republican candidates: Marion County Commissioner Danielle Bethell, the most notable non-Drazan GOP option. Kotek has no serious Democratic primary challenge. Cook rates Likely Democratic. Primary May 19, 2026.

A separate dynamic: Oregon's first-term Labor Commissioner Christina Stephenson (the only statewide elected office besides governor and attorney general) is running for re-election.

Oregon presidential election betting odds

Oregon's last Republican presidential win came in 1984, when Reagan's national landslide carried even the Pacific Northwest. Harris won by 14 points in 2024, a 4-point shift toward Trump from Biden's 16-point win in 2020 — slightly less than the national pro-Trump shift but a measurable swing nonetheless.

Cook PVI rates Oregon D+6. For 2028, the 7 electoral votes are reliably Democratic but not in the safest tier (Massachusetts, Maryland, California). Oregon's southern and eastern rural counties continue to trend rightward while Portland and the Willamette Valley anchor the Democratic majority.

Oregon senate betting odds

Merkley first won this seat in 2008 by defeating Republican incumbent Gordon Smith. He's won re-election by 19 points in 2014 and 17 points in 2020. His 2026 run for a fourth term was confirmed in July 2025; he framed the decision around "the magnitude of the darkness and danger" from the Trump administration. No serious primary challenger. The Republican field is anchored by Jo Rae Perkins, the 2020 and 2022 Senate nominee who has not won more than 40% in either general election.

Oregon has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Gordon Smith's 2002 re-election. The Cook rating is Solid Democratic.

Oregon house betting odds

The Oregon delegation breaks 5 Democrats to 1 Republican (Cliff Bentz in OR-2, the eastern Oregon district). Most seats are safe. The exception is OR-5, the suburban-and-rural seat south of Portland held by first-term Democrat Janelle Bynum, who defeated incumbent Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer (now Labor Secretary in the Trump administration) by 2.5 points in 2024. Bynum's re-election is the only Oregon House race rated competitive by national handicappers.

Kotek explicitly declined to redistrict Oregon's map despite the national mid-decade redistricting fight. Her office statement: "The Governor is tracking what other states are doing and currently has no plans to redistrict in Oregon. Oregon redistricting is controlled by statute and redistricting is a once a decade process." With Democrats already holding 5 of 6 seats, any redistricting attempt would have limited upside.

A major referendum on a $4.3 billion transportation package, which Kotek passed through a special legislative session in 2025, is on the May 19 primary ballot after Republicans gathered 200,000+ petition signatures. Republican lawmakers staged walkouts to protest the package; the date was moved to the primary after the 2026 legislative session passed SB 1599.