2026 Election Tracker
Rhode Island Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Rhode Island 2026 election odds for Dan McKee's bruised reelection vs Helena Foulkes, Jack Reed's safe sixth Senate term, and both House races.
| Electoral votes | 4 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris 56% / Trump 42% (D+14 margin) |
| Current governor | Dan McKee (D), seeking re-election (vulnerable) |
| U.S. senators | Jack Reed (D, on 2026 ballot), Sheldon Whitehouse (D, next 2030) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor, U.S. Senate, both 2 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+8 |
Rhode Island is structurally one of the most Democratic states in the country, but the 2026 governor's race is the most competitive contest the state has seen in over a decade. The reason is Dan McKee's approval rating: 17 percent favorable, 76 percent unfavorable in an April 2026 UNH poll, one of the worst gubernatorial approval ratings recorded anywhere in the country. McKee took office in 2021 when Gina Raimondo became U.S. Commerce Secretary, won a full term in 2022 by a 3-point primary margin and a 19-point general, and has struggled to build a coalition since. The Democratic primary now features Helena Foulkes, the former CVS executive who lost to McKee in 2022, and she has Attorney General Peter Neronha's endorsement. Sen. Jack Reed is seeking re-election to a sixth term, safely. Two House seats, both held by Democrats. No senate seat at risk in Rhode Island, so there are no Election Odds for any races for them seats. Follow all of it on ElectionOdds.com.
Is Rhode Island a Red State or a Blue State?
Rhode Island is a solidly Democratic state. Kamala Harris carried Rhode Island by 13.4 points in 2024. Biden won it by 20.8 in 2020, Clinton by 15.5 in 2016, and Obama by 27.4 in 2012. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988 except for one (Reagan's 1984 landslide). Cook PVI rates Rhode Island D+8. Rhode Island has the highest concentration of registered Democrats of any New England state, a legacy of its industrial-era labor politics and large Catholic immigrant communities.
The downballot picture is Democratic across the board. Democrats hold the governorship under Dan McKee, who won reelection by 19.5 points in 2022. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats (Jack Reed and Sheldon Whitehouse) and both U.S. House seats. Democrats hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, often producing intra-party fights that are more politically meaningful than Democrat-versus-Republican races. Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in Rhode Island since 1976 and have not held the governorship since 2011. The state's Republicans tend to be moderate in the Massachusetts mold but have not been able to compete statewide in over a decade.
Rhode Island's voting pattern is shaped by its small size and concentration of population. The state has only 1.1 million residents and is the smallest in area, but is the third-most densely populated. Providence County, which contains the state capital and roughly 60% of the population, votes heavily Democratic. The other four counties (Kent, Newport, Bristol, Washington) range from Democratic-leaning to genuinely competitive. The state's Italian American, Portuguese American, and Irish American communities have been the historical foundation of its Democratic Party, although these voters have moved slightly more Republican in recent cycles, following national trends among Catholic ethnic Democrats.
The state's politics have been shaped by its industrial history, its strong organized labor tradition, and its identity as the most reliably Democratic of the smaller New England states. Rhode Island's economy has been hit harder by deindustrialization than its neighbors, contributing to relatively high unemployment and outmigration over the past two decades. The state has 4 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Rhode Island become competitive? No, not at the presidential or congressional level. The state's structural Democratic advantages are too durable. The 2024 cycle saw a modest Republican improvement statewide but nothing that suggests Republicans can compete for Rhode Island's electoral votes or U.S. Senate seats in any near-term cycle. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Rhode Island Governor Betting Odds
McKee, the former Cumberland mayor and lieutenant governor, became governor in 2021 when Gina Raimondo joined the Biden Cabinet as Commerce Secretary. He won a full term in 2022, narrowly defeating Helena Foulkes in the Democratic primary by 3 points before winning the general by 19. His tenure has been defined by housing costs, infrastructure complaints, and a series of administrative controversies that have driven his approval to historically low levels.
April 2026 UNH polling: 17% approve of McKee's job performance, 76% disapprove. Net approval: -59 (unchanged since February). Majorities disapprove of his handling of housing (67%), economy (69%), cost of living (70%), roads and bridges (79%). Even among Democrats, only 24% approve.
Democratic primary (September 9, 2026): Helena Foulkes, former CVS executive, granddaughter of former U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd, lost to McKee by 3 points in the 2022 Democratic primary. Has the endorsement of Attorney General Peter Neronha, a major institutional break with McKee. Greg Stevens, restaurant chain owner running as a centrist Democrat. McKee has the endorsement of Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos. State House Speaker Joe Shekarchi considered running but did not file. His non-entry was the major news of the spring filing period.
Republican primary: Four candidates including Aaron Guckian (2022 Lt. Gov. nominee), Ashley Kalus (the 2022 GOP nominee who lost to McKee by 19), and others. The Republican has not won a Rhode Island statewide race since 2006. Cook rates the general election Likely Democratic, but if Foulkes wins the September primary, the rating could move to Lean Democratic or even toss-up given how poorly McKee tests against Republicans. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Rhode Island Governor Election History
Rhode Island's governorship has been Democratic for over a decade. Republican Donald Carcieri served two terms through 2011 and remains the last Republican to hold the office. Independent Lincoln Chafee, son of a Republican senator, won in 2010 and later became a Democrat, followed by Democrats Gina Raimondo and Dan McKee.
McKee rose from lieutenant governor when Raimondo joined the Biden Cabinet in 2021 and won a full term in 2022, but his approval has since collapsed to among the worst recorded anywhere. The 2026 Democratic primary, the contest that matters in this deep-blue state, pits him against former CVS executive Helena Foulkes, who narrowly lost to him in 2022 and now has the attorney general's backing. Cook rates the general Likely Democratic.
Rhode Island Senate Betting Odds
Twenty-nine years and counting in the Senate makes Jack Reed the longest-serving member of the Rhode Island federal delegation, and his 2026 re-election extends that further. Reed has been in the Senate since 1997 and is the ranking Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee and chair of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. He has won every cycle by margins exceeding 30 points.
Democratic primary: Reed faces a minor challenge from elder care worker and Army veteran Connor Burbridge, who is not seriously contesting the nomination. Republican primary: Political consultant Ray McKay (2024 candidate) is the likely Republican nominee. Independent and Libertarian candidates also on the ballot. Reed is safe.
Rhode Island has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since John Chafee won in 1976 (his son Lincoln Chafee was appointed to fill the seat in 1999, was elected in 2000, and lost as a Republican in 2006 before later switching parties). Cook rates Solid Democratic. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Rhode Island U.S. Senate Election History
Rhode Island's Senate seats have been Democratic for decades, with the last Republican win coming when John Chafee held his seat in 1976. His son Lincoln Chafee was appointed in 1999 and elected in 2000 as a Republican before losing in 2006 and later changing parties. Jack Reed has held one seat since 1997, Sheldon Whitehouse the other since 2007.
Reed, the longest-serving member of the delegation and a senior voice on Armed Services and defense appropriations, is seeking a sixth term in 2026 and faces only token opposition. He has won every race by more than 30 points, and Cook rates the seat Solid Democratic.
Rhode Island House Betting Odds
Both Rhode Island House seats are held by Democrats elected in the 2022 and 2023 cycles. RI-1 (Gabe Amo, Providence area) was won in a 2023 special election after David Cicilline left for the RI Foundation. Amo is the first person of Liberian descent in Congress. He's running for re-election with no significant primary or general-election challenge expected.
RI-2 (Seth Magaziner, Cranston and western Rhode Island) was won in 2022 after Jim Langevin's retirement. Magaziner, the former Rhode Island state treasurer, faces a Republican primary challenge field including businessman Vic Mellor and oral surgeon Stephen Skoly, but the general election is safely Democratic. No mid-decade redistricting in Rhode Island. Primary September 9, 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
2 marketsRhode Island U.S. House Election History
Rhode Island's two House seats are both safely Democratic, the meaningful contests coming in primaries rather than general elections. Both current members arrived recently: Gabe Amo won RI-1 in a 2023 special election after David Cicilline's departure, becoming the first person of Liberian descent in Congress, and Seth Magaziner won RI-2 in 2022 after Jim Langevin's retirement.
Both are favored for re-election in 2026, with Amo facing little opposition and Magaziner drawing a Republican challenge field that does not threaten the safely Democratic general election. Rhode Island did not pursue mid-decade redistricting.
Rhode Island Presidential Election Betting Odds
Rhode Island's working-class shift toward Republicans has been gradual but real, Biden won by 21 points in 2020, Harris by 14 in 2024. The state's 14-point Democratic margin in 2024 was its narrowest presidential margin since 1988 (when Dukakis won by 11). Clinton won by 16 in 2016. Cook PVI rates Rhode Island D+8. The 4 electoral votes are Likely Democratic for 2028.
No Rhode Island politician currently appears in 2028 presidential conversations. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse has built a national profile as a climate-change advocate but has not signaled presidential interest.
Rhode Island Presidential Election History
Rhode Island is among the most Democratic states in presidential politics, voting blue in every election since 1988 save Reagan's 1984 landslide, a legacy of its industrial labor history and large Catholic immigrant communities. It long delivered some of the largest Democratic margins in the country.
Those margins have compressed with the national working-class realignment, from Obama's 27 points in 2012 to Harris's 13.4 in 2024, the state's narrowest since 1988. Cook PVI still rates it D+8, and its 4 electoral votes are Likely Democratic. No current Rhode Island figure features in 2028 talk, though Senator Sheldon Whitehouse has a national profile on climate.
Rhode Island Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Rhode Island politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Rhode Island Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Rhode Island's races, where the action is the governor's contest, the most competitive in over a decade despite the state's deep-blue lean. Gov. Dan McKee, with one of the worst approval ratings in the country, faces former CVS executive Helena Foulkes in the decisive Democratic primary. Sen. Jack Reed is safe for a sixth term, and both House seats are safely Democratic.
Because Rhode Island is so reliably Democratic, the September primary effectively decides the governorship, though Cook notes the general could tighten if Foulkes wins given how poorly McKee tests against Republicans. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Rhode Island governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin | March 24 – May 20, 2026 | Helena Foulkes 39.7% · Dan McKee 17% · Gregory Stevens 5.5% · Other/Undecided 37.8% | |
| Emerson College/WPRI-TV | May 14–16, 2026 | 565 (LV) | Helena Foulkes 40% · Dan McKee 20% · Other 3% · Undecided 37% |
| Emerson College/WPRI-TV | May 14–16, 2026 | 1,000 (LV) | Helena Foulkes (D) 39% · Republican nominee 21% · Ken Block (I) 19% · Other 3% · Undecided 19% |
| Emerson College/WPRI-TV | May 14–16, 2026 | 1,000 (LV) | Dan McKee (D) 33% · Republican nominee 23% · Ken Block (I) 22% · Other 6% · Undecided 17% |
| University of New Hampshire | April 16–20, 2026 | 327 (LV) | Helena Foulkes 45% · Dan McKee 11% · Gregory Stevens 3% · Other 2% · Undecided 39% |
| Opinion Diagnostics | April 13–16, 2026 | 802 (LV) | Dan McKee (D) 28% · Aaron Guckian (R) 15% · Ken Block (I) 20% · Undecided 37% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 4 hours ago.
Rhode Island U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | April 16–20, 2026 | 323 (LV) | Connor Burbridge 15% · Jack Reed 65% · Other 0% · Undecided 20% |
| University of New Hampshire | April 16–20, 2026 | 556 (LV) | Jack Reed (D) 52% · Raymond McKay (R) 34% · Other 2% · Undecided 12% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Rhode Island under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 4 hours ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Rhode Island a red state or a blue state?
Rhode Island is a solidly Democratic state. Harris carried it by 13.4 points in 2024, Democrats hold every statewide and federal office, and Cook PVI rates it D+8. It has the highest concentration of registered Democrats of any New England state.
Why is the Rhode Island governor race competitive?
Because Democratic Gov. Dan McKee's approval has collapsed to about 17%, one of the worst recorded anywhere. The decisive September Democratic primary pits him against former CVS executive Helena Foulkes, who narrowly lost to him in 2022 and has the attorney general's endorsement.
Is Jack Reed's Senate seat safe?
Yes. Reed, in the Senate since 1997 and a senior figure on Armed Services and defense appropriations, is seeking a sixth term against only token opposition. He has won every race by more than 30 points, and Cook rates the seat Solid Democratic.
Are any Rhode Island House seats competitive?
No. Both are safely Democratic, held by Gabe Amo (RI-1), the first person of Liberian descent in Congress, and Seth Magaziner (RI-2). Republicans have not won a Rhode Island statewide race since 2006.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.