Rhode Island Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Rhode Island is structurally one of the most Democratic states in the country, but the 2026 governor's race is the most competitive contest the state has seen in over a decade. The reason is Dan McKee's approval rating: 17 percent favorable, 76 percent unfavorable in an April 2026 UNH poll — one of the worst gubernatorial approval ratings recorded anywhere in the country. McKee took office in 2021 when Gina Raimondo became U.S. Commerce Secretary, won a full term in 2022 by a 3-point primary margin and a 19-point general, and has struggled to build a coalition since. The Democratic primary now features Helena Foulkes, the former CVS executive who lost to McKee in 2022, and she has Attorney General Peter Neronha's endorsement. Sen. Jack Reed is seeking re-election to a sixth term, safely. Two House seats, both held by Democrats. No senate seat at risk. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Rhode Island governor betting odds

McKee, the former Cumberland mayor and lieutenant governor, became governor in 2021 when Gina Raimondo joined the Biden Cabinet as Commerce Secretary. He won a full term in 2022, narrowly defeating Helena Foulkes in the Democratic primary by 3 points before winning the general by 19. His tenure has been defined by housing costs, infrastructure complaints, and a series of administrative controversies that have driven his approval to historically low levels.

April 2026 UNH polling:

• 17% approve of McKee's job performance
• 76% disapprove
• Net approval: -59 (unchanged since February)
• Majorities disapprove of his handling of housing (67%), economy (69%), cost of living (70%), roads and bridges (79%)
• Even among Democrats, only 24% approve

Democratic primary (September 9, 2026):

• Helena Foulkes, former CVS executive, granddaughter of former U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd, lost to McKee by 3 points in the 2022 Democratic primary. Has the endorsement of Attorney General Peter Neronha — a major institutional break with McKee.
• Greg Stevens, restaurant chain owner running as a centrist Democrat.
• McKee has the endorsement of Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos.

State House Speaker Joe Shekarchi considered running but did not file. His non-entry was the major news of the spring filing period.

Republican primary: Four candidates including Aaron Guckian (2022 Lt. Gov. nominee), Ashley Kalus (the 2022 GOP nominee who lost to McKee by 19), and others. The Republican has not won a Rhode Island statewide race since 2006.

Cook rates the general election Likely Democratic — but if Foulkes wins the September primary, the rating could move to Lean Democratic or even toss-up given how poorly McKee tests against Republicans.

Rhode Island presidential election betting odds

Rhode Island's working-class shift toward Republicans has been gradual but real — Biden won by 21 points in 2020, Harris by 14 in 2024. The state's 14-point Democratic margin in 2024 was its narrowest presidential margin since 1988 (when Dukakis won by 11). Clinton won by 16 in 2016.

Cook PVI rates Rhode Island D+8. The 4 electoral votes are Likely Democratic for 2028. No Rhode Island politician currently appears in 2028 presidential conversations. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse has built a national profile as a climate-change advocate but has not signaled presidential interest.

Rhode Island senate betting odds

Twenty-nine years and counting in the Senate makes Jack Reed the longest-serving member of the Rhode Island federal delegation, and his 2026 re-election extends that further. Reed has been in the Senate since 1997 and is the ranking Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee and chair of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. He has won every cycle by margins exceeding 30 points.

Democratic primary: Reed faces a minor challenge from elder care worker and Army veteran Connor Burbridge, who is not seriously contesting the nomination.

Republican primary: Political consultant Ray McKay (2024 candidate) is the likely Republican nominee. Independent and Libertarian candidates also on the ballot.

Reed is safe. Rhode Island has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since John Chafee won in 1976 (his son Lincoln Chafee was appointed to fill the seat in 1999, was elected in 2000, and lost as a Republican in 2006 before later switching parties). Cook rates Solid Democratic.

Rhode Island house betting odds

Both Rhode Island House seats are held by Democrats elected in the 2022 and 2023 cycles. RI-1 (Gabe Amo, Providence area) was won in a 2023 special election after David Cicilline left for the RI Foundation. Amo is the first person of Liberian descent in Congress. He's running for re-election with no significant primary or general-election challenge expected.

RI-2 (Seth Magaziner, Cranston and western Rhode Island) was won in 2022 after Jim Langevin's retirement. Magaziner, the former Rhode Island state treasurer, faces a Republican primary challenge field including businessman Vic Mellor and oral surgeon Stephen Skoly — but the general election is safely Democratic.

No mid-decade redistricting in Rhode Island. Primary September 9, 2026.