Tennessee Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Tennessee politics changed five days ago. On May 8, 2026, Governor Bill Lee signed a new congressional map that splits Memphis — the state’s last majority-Black district, held by Democrat Steve Cohen — into three pieces, with the goal of creating a 9-0 Republican House delegation. The map came together in a single-week special session triggered by the U.S. Supreme Court’s April 29 ruling that effectively eliminated racial gerrymandering protections from the Voting Rights Act. Beyond the map fight, Tennessee has an open governor’s race (Bill Lee term-limited), a Senate race that’s all but settled (Bill Hagerty running essentially unopposed), and a candidate filing deadline that was reopened until May 15 to accommodate the new districts. The Tennessee NAACP has already sued over the new map. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Tennessee governor betting odds

Bill Lee is term-limited after eight years. The biggest factor in the 2026 race is Marsha Blackburn, the sitting U.S. Senator, who left her safe Senate seat to run for governor. Blackburn is the polling and fundraising frontrunner — most polls show her with a 30-plus point lead in the Republican primary. Her Senate seat will be filled by appointment by Bill Hagerty’s eventual replacement (whoever Lee names if Blackburn vacates early; her current term doesn’t end until January 2027).

Blackburn’s main Republican primary opponents: Rep. John Rose (TN-6), who is vacating his congressional seat to run, and state Rep. Monty Fritts (TN-32). Rose entered the race in early 2025 hoping to be the consensus candidate before Blackburn shifted from Senate to governor. Fritts is running to the right of both. The Republican primary winner is essentially the next governor.

The Democratic primary is led by Memphis Councilmember Jerri Green, who has consolidated establishment Democratic support. Other Democrats in the field: Carnita Atwater, Tim Cyr, Adam Kurtz, Kevin Lee McCants. A Democrat has not won a statewide election in Tennessee since Phil Bredesen’s gubernatorial re-election in 2006 — 20 years ago. Cook rates the race Solid Republican.

Primary August 6, 2026.

Tennessee presidential election betting odds

Tennessee has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000. Trump won the state by 29.7 points in 2024 — among his strongest performances anywhere. The state is no longer competitive at the presidential level and is rated R+15 by Cook.

For 2028, Tennessee’s 11 electoral votes are safe Republican regardless of nominee. Sen. Marsha Blackburn was occasionally mentioned in 2024 vice presidential speculation; that speculation has now ended with her gubernatorial bid. No Tennessee politician currently appears in major 2028 presidential markets.

Tennessee senate betting odds

Bill Hagerty, the first-term senator who was elected in 2020 with 62% of the vote, is running for re-election. He faces no Republican primary challenger — a rarity for any incumbent in any cycle, but particularly notable in a year when Trump has openly endorsed challengers to other incumbents nationally. The Democratic field is small: Marquita Bradshaw (2020 nominee), Maria Brewer, Civil Miller-Watkins, Diana Onyejiaka, and David Sutman Jr. (independent).

Tennessee has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Al Gore Sr. in 1958, except for brief special-election service. Cook rates the race Solid Republican. Hagerty has indicated interest in higher office down the line — possibly a 2028 presidential or vice presidential bid — but for 2026, he’s all but assured of re-election.

Marsha Blackburn’s Senate seat (Class I) is not on the 2026 ballot — her term runs through January 2027 and the seat will be filled by appointment if she wins the gubernatorial primary.

Tennessee house betting odds

This is the section that everything changed in last week. Tennessee Republicans pushed through new congressional maps in a four-day special legislative session that ended May 8, 2026. The new map carves up Steve Cohen’s Memphis-based 9th District — the state’s only majority-Black district and only Democratic House seat — into three pieces. The redrawn 9th now stretches more than 200 miles from Memphis eastward, picking up rural Republican counties before reaching toward the Nashville suburbs. The Nashville metro is further divided across five districts.

The map is designed to flip the delegation from 8R-1D to a 9-0 Republican lineup. The redistricting came eight days after the U.S. Supreme Court’s April 29, 2026 ruling weakening the Voting Rights Act’s protections against racial gerrymandering — a ruling that supercharged the national mid-decade redistricting cycle and led directly to Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana taking up redistricting in early May.

The session was contentious. State Sen. Charlane Oliver (D-Nashville) stood on her Senate desk holding a sign reading “No Jim Crow 2.0, Stop the TN Steal.” Protesters packed the Capitol. Democratic legislators walked off the House floor as the final vote was taken. The Tennessee NAACP filed suit on May 7, alleging the map dilutes Black voting power and violates remaining VRA protections.

Tennessee became the ninth state to enact a new mid-decade congressional map. The state legislature also repealed Tennessee’s prior law prohibiting mid-decade redistricting, clearing the procedural path. Candidate filing reopened until May 15, 2026 — three days from now — to allow candidates to switch districts or new candidates to enter. The primary is August 6, 2026.

Steve Cohen, who has represented Memphis since 2007 and was facing a primary challenge from state Rep. Justin Pearson under the old map, has not yet announced whether he will run under the redrawn 9th. Pearson has been an outspoken opponent of the new map. Markets will likely take a few weeks to fully price the new district lines.