2026 Election Tracker
Utah Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Utah 2026 election odds for all four House races on the new court-drawn map, including the newly Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County district plus history.
| Electoral votes | 6 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 59% / Harris 38% (R+21 margin) |
| Current governor | Spencer Cox (R), next election 2028 |
| U.S. senators | Mike Lee (R, next 2028), John Curtis (R, next 2030) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | All 4 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | R+13 |
Two big races aren't on the Utah ballot in 2026, and one race that wasn't supposed to exist is. Governor Spencer Cox just won re-election in 2024 and isn't up again until 2028. Senator John Curtis (the seat Mitt Romney vacated) won his first term in 2024. Senator Mike Lee isn't up until 2028 either. What is on the ballot: four U.S. House races, and the boundaries underneath them just got redrawn by a court. Utah's congressional map, which gave Republicans all four seats since 2022, was struck down in August 2025 by a state district court. After the legislature passed a replacement and the court rejected that too, the court selected its own map in November 2025. The new map creates a Democratic-leaning seat in Salt Lake County for the first time in over a decade. Burgess Owens, the Republican incumbent who would have been drawn out, retired rather than run. Heading into a May 19 statewide retention election, Utah Republicans are also openly campaigning to oust two state Supreme Court justices in what would be a first-of-its-kind retaliation against the redistricting ruling. Whether you want Utah election odds or other election odds for 2026 midterms, we have it all here on ElectionOdds.com.
Is Utah a Red State or a Blue State?
Utah is a deeply red state with a distinctive Mormon-Republican political culture. Trump carried Utah by 21.7 points in 2024, by 20.5 in 2020, and by 18 in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964. Cook PVI rates Utah R+13. Utah's Republican identity is rooted in its Mormon population (roughly 60% of state residents, the highest concentration of any state), which has voted Republican by overwhelming margins for decades. Utah's 2016 result, in which Mormon discomfort with Trump produced an unusually narrow 18-point Republican win and a 21.5% showing for independent conservative Evan McMullin, was a brief outlier.
The downballot picture is overwhelmingly Republican. Republicans hold the governorship under Spencer Cox, who won reelection by 25 points in 2024. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (Mike Lee and John Curtis, who replaced Mitt Romney after his 2024 retirement), all 4 U.S. House seats, and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Utah Democrats hold no statewide elected office and have not since 1996. The state's last Democratic governor (Scott Matheson) left office in 1985, the longest Republican-governor streak in the country tied with Washington's Democratic-governor streak.
Utah's voting pattern is dominated by Salt Lake County (Salt Lake City), which is the largest county in the state and the only one that consistently votes Democratic. The state's other urban counties (Davis, Weber, Utah) lean Republican but are competitive. The rural counties, particularly the heavily Mormon counties of southern Utah and the energy-producing counties of the Uinta Basin, vote Republican by overwhelming margins. Summit County (Park City) votes Democratic but is small. The state's growing Latino population in Salt Lake County has not produced significant Democratic gains because of the dominant Mormon Republican vote share.
The state's politics have been shaped by the strong influence of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, the rapid recent growth of the Salt Lake metropolitan area, and the state's unique tradition of producing Republicans who occasionally break with the national party. Mitt Romney, who held a U.S. Senate seat from 2019 to 2025, was one of the few prominent Republicans to break with Trump. Utah's 2026 redistricting fight produced a court-ordered new congressional map after a state judge struck down the 2021 Republican-drawn map, creating one Democratic-competitive Salt Lake City-anchored district. Utah has 6 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Utah become competitive? Not at the presidential or U.S. Senate level. The state's structural Republican advantages, anchored by the Mormon vote, are too durable. The new Salt Lake City-anchored congressional district could send a Democrat to the U.S. House for the first time in decades, but the state as a whole will continue to vote Republican by large margins. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Utah Governor Betting Odds
There is no governor race in 2026. Spencer Cox won re-election in 2024 by 31 points over Democrat Brian King; his second term runs through January 2029. Cox has positioned himself as a center-right Republican willing to break publicly with the MAGA wing, but is also leading the GOP charge against the state Supreme Court justices who ruled against the legislature's congressional map, a posture that has drawn criticism from across the political spectrum.
The next Utah gubernatorial election is November 2028. Cox has said he will not seek a third term, opening up the 2028 race already. Names being floated include former U.S. Rep. Jason Chaffetz (Fox News commentator, has set up a PAC), Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson, and state House Speaker Mike Schultz. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Utah Governor Election History
Utah has the longest active Republican-governor streak in the country, tied with Washington's Democratic streak. The last Democrat to hold the office was Scott Matheson, who left in 1985. Since then Republicans Norm Bangerter, Mike Leavitt, Olene Walker, Jon Huntsman, Gary Herbert, and Spencer Cox have held it continuously, often by enormous margins.
There is no governor's race in 2026; Cox won re-election by 31 points in 2024 and his term runs to 2029. He has cast himself as a center-right Republican willing to break with the MAGA wing, even as he leads the GOP effort against the state Supreme Court justices who struck down the congressional map. Cox has said he will not seek a third term, so the 2028 race is already drawing names like Jason Chaffetz and Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson.
Utah Senate Betting Odds
Neither Utah Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Mike Lee, re-elected in 2022 by 11 points over independent Evan McMullin (in the first Utah Senate race with no Democratic nominee), is next up in 2028. John Curtis, who won the open seat created by Mitt Romney's retirement in 2024 by 26 points, is next up in 2030.
The longer-range market with the most attention is Mike Lee's 2028 race. Lee was floated as Trump's potential replacement for ousted Attorney General Pam Bondi in April 2026, a scenario that would have triggered a special election under Utah law, with the legislature submitting three names to the governor for selection. The rumor fizzled, but it underscored Lee's national profile and the possibility that he could leave the Senate before his term ends. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
Utah U.S. Senate Election History
Utah's Senate seats have been Republican for decades, last held by a Democrat in the 1970s. Orrin Hatch served seven terms before Mitt Romney won the seat in 2018; Romney, one of the few Republicans to break openly with Trump, retired in 2024 and was succeeded by John Curtis. Mike Lee has held the other seat since 2010.
Neither seat is on the 2026 ballot, Lee is up in 2028 and Curtis in 2030. Lee, re-elected in 2022 over independent Evan McMullin in a race with no Democratic nominee, drew attention in 2026 when he was floated as a possible Trump attorney general, a move that would have triggered a special election. The rumor faded, but it underscored his national profile.
Utah House Betting Odds
This is the entire story of Utah's 2026 federal ballot. The Utah Supreme Court ruled in July 2024 that the state legislature had violated the Utah Constitution when it repealed voter-approved Proposition 4 in 2020 and drew congressional maps that split Salt Lake County four ways to dilute Democratic voters. The case was remanded; a state district court ruled in August 2025 and ordered a new map within 30 days. The legislature passed its own version in October 2025; the court rejected it. On November 10, 2025, the court selected its own map for use in 2026 elections, and the new map is a fundamentally different political document.
UT-1: The new district is anchored in Salt Lake City and most of Salt Lake County. Harris won the new district by 24 points in 2024. It is now safely Democratic. Multiple Democrats are running, including former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams (the last Democrat to hold a Utah House seat, lost to Owens in 2020), state Sen. Nate Blouin, Salt Lake City Council member Eva Lopez Chavez, and state Sen. Kathleen Riebe. Republican candidate Blake Moore (the incumbent of the old UT-1) is running in the new UT-2 instead.
UT-2: Rural northern Utah, Box Elder, Cache, Davis, parts of Weber. Trump won the new district by 29 points. The incumbent Blake Moore (formerly UT-1) is running here, with no Democratic primary challenger of note. UT-3: Eastern and southern Utah, St. George, Cedar City, Provo, Orem. Trump won by 41 points. Celeste Maloy (incumbent from old UT-2) is moving here, faces a primary from former state Rep. Phil Lyman (a 2024 gubernatorial candidate). UT-4: Western Utah, including parts of Salt Lake County and Utah County. Trump won by 32 points. Two incumbents were drawn into the district: Republicans Burgess Owens (formerly UT-4) and Mike Kennedy (formerly UT-3). Owens announced in March 2026 that he would not seek re-election. The seat is now functionally Kennedy's open primary.
The redistricting fight is not over. Republicans have appealed to a new court created specifically by the legislature in 2026 (HB 392), and questions remain about the constitutional authority of the new court. Governor Cox and Republican leaders are also running a campaign against state Supreme Court justices Diana Hagen and Paige Petersen in their 2026 retention election, a first-time-ever party-organized retention challenge. Primary June 23, 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
5 marketsUtah U.S. House Election History
Utah's four House seats had all been Republican since 2022, the product of a 2021 map that split Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County four ways. Democrat Ben McAdams briefly held a Salt Lake-area seat before losing to Burgess Owens in 2020, after which the delegation went solidly red.
That changed by court order. The Utah Supreme Court found the 2021 map violated the state constitution by overriding voter-approved Proposition 4, and after the legislature's replacement was rejected, the court imposed its own map in November 2025, creating a safely Democratic Salt Lake City-anchored UT-1. Burgess Owens retired rather than run on the new lines, and the cycle has become a constitutional showdown, with Republicans appealing to a newly created court and campaigning to oust two justices in their retention election.
Utah Presidential Election Betting Odds
Trump won Utah by 21 points in 2024, comparable to his 21-point margin in 2020. The state's Republican identity at the federal level remains secure, though Utah's relationship with Trump specifically has been complicated, Evan McMullin, running as an independent, kept Trump under 50% in 2016, and the state's heavy Mormon population has been a soft spot for Trump throughout his political career. Cook PVI rates Utah R+13. The state's 6 electoral votes are safe Republican for 2028.
The most politically interesting Utah figure for 2028 is freshman Sen. John Curtis, who took Mitt Romney's seat in 2024 and has positioned himself as a center-right alternative voice in a state that has historically rewarded that profile.
Utah Presidential Election History
Utah is one of the most reliably Republican states in presidential politics, voting GOP in every election since 1964. Its Republican lean is rooted in the dominant Latter-day Saint population, which backs Republicans by overwhelming margins, though the state has a distinctive streak of discomfort with Donald Trump specifically.
That showed in 2016, when independent conservative Evan McMullin took 21.5 percent and held Trump to an unusually narrow 18-point win. Trump's margins recovered to around 20 points in 2020 and 2024. Cook PVI rates the state R+13, and its 6 electoral votes are safely Republican, with freshman Senator John Curtis the Utah figure most often mentioned in the center-right 2028 conversation.
Utah Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Utah politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Utah Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Utah's four House races, the state's only federal contests this cycle, all running on the new court-drawn map. The pivotal seat is the newly Democratic-leaning UT-1 in Salt Lake County, where multiple Democrats including former Rep. Ben McAdams are running for a seat Harris would have carried by 24 points. There is no governor or Senate race this cycle.
Utah's other three House districts remain safely Republican by 29 to 41 points, so UT-1 is the one genuinely competitive race, and the surrounding court fight, including the unprecedented campaign to oust two state Supreme Court justices, is the larger 2026 story. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Utah governor polls
No Utah governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Utah U.S. Senate polls
No Utah U.S. Senate polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Utah a red state or a blue state?
Utah is a deeply red state with a distinctive Mormon-Republican culture. Trump carried it by about 21 points in 2024, Republicans hold every statewide office, and Cook PVI rates it R+13. Salt Lake County is the only consistently Democratic part of the state.
What is on Utah's 2026 ballot?
Only the four U.S. House seats. There is no governor race (Spencer Cox is up in 2028) and no Senate race (Mike Lee in 2028, John Curtis in 2030). The House races run on a new court-drawn map.
Why did Utah get a new congressional map?
The Utah Supreme Court ruled the 2021 Republican map violated the state constitution by overriding voter-approved Proposition 4 and splitting Salt Lake County to dilute Democrats. After rejecting the legislature's replacement, the court imposed its own map in November 2025, creating a safely Democratic Salt Lake City-anchored UT-1.
Can a Democrat win a Utah House seat in 2026?
Yes, in the new UT-1, which Harris would have carried by 24 points and which is now safely Democratic. Former Rep. Ben McAdams is among several Democrats running. Republican incumbent Burgess Owens retired rather than run on the new lines.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.