Utah Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Two big races aren’t on the Utah ballot in 2026, and one race that wasn’t supposed to exist is. Governor Spencer Cox just won re-election in 2024 and isn’t up again until 2028. Senator John Curtis (the seat Mitt Romney vacated) won his first term in 2024. Senator Mike Lee isn’t up until 2028 either. What is on the ballot: four U.S. House races, and the boundaries underneath them just got redrawn by a court. Utah’s congressional map — which gave Republicans all four seats since 2022 — was struck down in August 2025 by a state district court. After the legislature passed a replacement and the court rejected that too, the court selected its own map in November 2025. The new map creates a Democratic-leaning seat in Salt Lake County for the first time in over a decade. Burgess Owens, the Republican incumbent who would have been drawn out, retired rather than run. Heading into a May 19 statewide retention election, Utah Republicans are also openly campaigning to oust two state Supreme Court justices in what would be a first-of-its-kind retaliation against the redistricting ruling. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Utah governor betting odds

No governor race in 2026. Spencer Cox won re-election in 2024 by 31 points over Democrat Brian King; his second term runs through January 2029. Cox has positioned himself as a center-right Republican willing to break publicly with the MAGA wing — but is also leading the GOP charge against the state Supreme Court justices who ruled against the legislature’s congressional map, a posture that has drawn criticism from across the political spectrum.

The next Utah gubernatorial election is November 2028. Cox has said he will not seek a third term, opening up the 2028 race already. Names being floated include former U.S. Rep. Jason Chaffetz (Fox News commentator, has set up a PAC), Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson, and state House Speaker Mike Schultz.

Utah presidential election betting odds

Trump won Utah by 21 points in 2024, comparable to his 21-point margin in 2020. The state’s Republican identity at the federal level remains secure, though Utah’s relationship with Trump specifically has been complicated — Evan McMullin, running as an independent, kept Trump under 50% in 2016, and the state’s heavy Mormon population has been a soft spot for Trump throughout his political career.

Cook PVI rates Utah R+13. The state’s 6 electoral votes are safe Republican for 2028. The most politically interesting Utah figure for 2028 is freshman Sen. John Curtis, who took Mitt Romney’s seat in 2024 and has positioned himself as a center-right alternative voice in a state that has historically rewarded that profile.

Utah senate betting odds

Neither Utah Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Mike Lee, re-elected in 2022 by 11 points over independent Evan McMullin (in the first Utah Senate race with no Democratic nominee), is next up in 2028. John Curtis, who won the open seat created by Mitt Romney’s retirement in 2024 by 26 points, is next up in 2030.

The longer-range market with the most attention is Mike Lee’s 2028 race. Lee was floated as Trump’s potential replacement for ousted Attorney General Pam Bondi in April 2026 — a scenario that would have triggered a special election under Utah law, with the legislature submitting three names to the governor for selection. The rumor fizzled, but it underscored Lee’s national profile and the possibility that he could leave the Senate before his term ends.

Utah house betting odds

This is the entire story of Utah’s 2026 federal ballot. The Utah Supreme Court ruled in July 2024 that the state legislature had violated the Utah Constitution when it repealed voter-approved Proposition 4 in 2020 and drew congressional maps that split Salt Lake County four ways to dilute Democratic voters. The case was remanded; a state district court ruled in August 2025 and ordered a new map within 30 days. The legislature passed its own version in October 2025; the court rejected it. On November 10, 2025, the court selected its own map for use in 2026 elections — and the new map is a fundamentally different political document.

UT-1: The new district is anchored in Salt Lake City and most of Salt Lake County. Harris won the new district by 24 points in 2024. It is now safely Democratic. Multiple Democrats are running, including former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams (the last Democrat to hold a Utah House seat, lost to Owens in 2020), state Sen. Nate Blouin, Salt Lake City Council member Eva Lopez Chavez, and state Sen. Kathleen Riebe. Republican candidate Blake Moore (the incumbent of the old UT-1) is running in the new UT-2 instead.

UT-2: Rural northern Utah — Box Elder, Cache, Davis, parts of Weber. Trump won the new district by 29 points. The incumbent Blake Moore (formerly UT-1) is running here, with no Democratic primary challenger of note.

UT-3: Eastern and southern Utah — St. George, Cedar City, Provo, Orem. Trump won by 41 points. Celeste Maloy (incumbent from old UT-2) is moving here, faces a primary from former state Rep. Phil Lyman (a 2024 gubernatorial candidate).

UT-4: Western Utah, including parts of Salt Lake County and Utah County. Trump won by 32 points. Two incumbents were drawn into the district: Republicans Burgess Owens (formerly UT-4) and Mike Kennedy (formerly UT-3). Owens announced in March 2026 that he would not seek re-election. The seat is now functionally Kennedy’s open primary.

The redistricting fight is not over. Republicans have appealed to a new court created specifically by the legislature in 2026 (HB 392), and questions remain about the constitutional authority of the new court. Governor Cox and Republican leaders are also running a campaign against state Supreme Court justices Diana Hagen and Paige Petersen in their 2026 retention election — a first-time-ever party-organized retention challenge.

Primary June 23, 2026.