2026 Election Tracker
Washington Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Washington 2026 election odds for all 10 House races, including the open WA-4 after Dan Newhouse's retirement and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's tough WA-3 defense.
| Electoral votes | 12 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris 57.7% / Trump 39.5% (D+18.2 margin) |
| Current governor | Bob Ferguson (D), elected 2024, next 2028 |
| U.S. senators | Patty Murray (D, next 2028), Maria Cantwell (D, next 2030) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | All 10 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+8 |
Washington's federal ballot in 2026 is the lightest of any large state. There's no governor's race (Bob Ferguson was just elected in 2024), no Senate race (Murray and Cantwell were both just re-elected), and the only statewide-relevant federal contests are the 10 House races, one of which has become a national story. WA-4 in central Washington opened up in December 2025 when six-term Republican Dan Newhouse, one of only two House Republicans remaining who voted to impeach Trump after January 6, announced his retirement. The Trump-endorsed candidate to replace him, Amanda McKinney, has a complicated history with Newhouse that has become a real campaign issue. Beyond WA-4, the state's most competitive seat is WA-3, where Marie Gluesenkamp Perez survived a 2024 rematch by 4 points and faces another tough race in 2026. There are plenty of Washington election odds for you to enjoy on ElectionOdds.com, or you can check out more midterm election odds across every state.
Is Washington a Red State or a Blue State?
Washington is a solidly Democratic state at the statewide level, with significant rural Republican strength east of the Cascades. Kamala Harris carried Washington by 17.8 points in 2024. Biden won it by 19.2 in 2020, Clinton by 15.7 in 2016, and Obama by 14.8 in 2012. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988. Cook PVI rates Washington D+8. Washington was a swing state in the 1980s and earlier, but has been firmly Democratic for the entire 21st century at the federal level.
The downballot picture is Democratic across all major federal and statewide offices. Democrats hold the governorship under Bob Ferguson, who took office in January 2025 after winning the open-seat race to replace Jay Inslee. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats (Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell), 8 of 10 U.S. House seats, and both chambers of the state legislature. Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in Washington since 1994 and have not held the governorship since 1985, the longest streak of any state. The state's last Republican governor was John Spellman, who left office over 40 years ago.
Washington's voting pattern is shaped by the famous Cascade Mountains divide. King County (Seattle) is the largest county in the state and votes Democratic by enormous margins, anchored by the tech industry and the city's progressive political culture. Snohomish, Pierce, Whatcom, and Thurston counties (the rest of Puget Sound) also vote Democratic. The Olympic Peninsula and the southwestern counties have shifted toward Republicans but still lean slightly Democratic. The eastern half of the state, on the dry side of the Cascades around Spokane, Yakima, and the Tri-Cities, votes Republican by significant margins. The geographic divide is so pronounced that there has been a recurring (unserious) movement to split eastern Washington into a separate state.
The state's politics have been shaped by its tech economy, its high education levels, its environmental activism, and the unique role of organized labor in Puget Sound. Washington was one of the first states to legalize recreational marijuana (2012, alongside Colorado) and to legalize same-sex marriage by popular vote (also 2012). The state's vote-by-mail system, used universally since 2011, has been a national model and a frequent target of Republican criticism. Washington has 12 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Washington become competitive? No, not at the presidential or U.S. Senate level. The Seattle metropolitan area is too large and too Democratic for the rural eastern counties to compete with statewide. The Republican-governor drought is now over four decades and shows no signs of ending. The state will not be a presidential battleground in 2028. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Washington Governor Betting Odds
There is no governor race in 2026. The next Washington gubernatorial election is in 2028. Bob Ferguson was elected governor in November 2024 with 56% of the vote, succeeding three-term Democrat Jay Inslee. Ferguson previously served as Washington Attorney General from 2013 to 2025 and built a national profile filing lawsuits against the first Trump administration. His current term runs through January 2029. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Washington Governor Election History
Washington has the longest Republican-governor drought in the country. The last Republican to hold the office was John Spellman, elected in 1980 and defeated in 1984 by Democrat Booth Gardner, even as Ronald Reagan carried the state by 13 points. No Republican has won since. Democrats Gardner, Mike Lowry, Gary Locke, and Christine Gregoire held the office through the 1990s and 2000s, with Gregoire surviving the closest gubernatorial election in state history in 2004.
Jay Inslee then won three terms beginning in 2012, and when he retired, Democrat Bob Ferguson, the former attorney general known nationally for suing the first Trump administration, won the open 2024 race with 56 percent. There is no governor's race in 2026; Ferguson's term runs to 2029. With Seattle and the Puget Sound metro dominating the statewide vote, the markets see no near-term end to the four-decade Democratic hold.
Washington Senate Betting Odds
Neither Washington Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Senator Patty Murray, the longest-serving woman in U.S. Senate history, won her sixth term in 2022 and is next up in 2028. Senator Maria Cantwell won her fifth term in 2024 by 18 points and is next up in 2030. Cantwell's 2024 margin actually outpaced Harris's at the top of the ticket, one of the cleaner Democratic Senate performances in any swing or blue state.
For long-range markets, Murray's 2028 race is the more interesting one, she'll be 78 by November 2028, and there has been quiet speculation about a potential retirement. No public announcement has been made. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
Washington U.S. Senate Election History
Washington's Senate seats have been Democratic since the 1990s. Patty Murray, first elected in 1992 as part of the "Year of the Woman," has become the longest-serving woman in Senate history and risen to the chamber's leadership. Maria Cantwell won the other seat in 2000 by defeating Republican Slade Gorton and has held it comfortably ever since.
Neither seat is on the 2026 ballot, Murray is up in 2028 and Cantwell in 2030. Cantwell's 2024 re-election by 18 points actually outran Harris at the top of the ticket. Republicans have not won a Washington Senate race since 1994, and the markets treat both seats as safely Democratic. The only forward-looking question is quiet speculation about whether Murray, who will be 78 in 2028, seeks another term.
Washington House Betting Odds
Washington has 10 House seats, currently split 8 Democrats to 2 Republicans. Washington uses a top-two blanket primary, every candidate from every party appears on the same primary ballot, and the top two advance to the general regardless of party. This produces unusual dynamics: in 2024, two Republicans advanced to the general election in WA-4, and the same dynamic could repeat in 2026.
WA-4 is the marquee race. Dan Newhouse announced retirement on December 17, 2025 after 12 years. Newhouse was one of just 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021; by 2026, only he and David Valadao (CA) remained in Congress from that group. The seat is solid Republican territory, the 4th covers Yakima, the Tri-Cities, and most of central Washington east of the Cascades, but the Republican primary is now a six-way fight. Trump endorsed Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney on January 6, 2026. McKinney's complication: she appeared in a 2024 endorsement ad for Newhouse against Trump-backed Jerrod Sessler, then told an AmericaFest crowd in December 2025 that she had spent two years "working to retire" Newhouse over his impeachment vote. Sessler, Newhouse's two-time challenger, accused her of lying about her record. Other Republicans in the primary include state Sen. Matt Boehnke, Wesley Meier, John Hughs, and former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler. One Democrat (John Duresky, retired Air Force) and one independent (Devin Poore) are also running. With the top-two system, two Republicans could easily advance to November.
WA-3 is the state's most competitive seat. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania), one of the few Democrats representing a Trump district, won the 2024 rematch against Joe Kent by 4 points. Her 2026 challenger is state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R), considered a stronger candidate than Kent. WA-3 stretches from Vancouver across rural southwest Washington, a district where Perez's blue-collar appeal has been the only thing keeping the seat in Democratic hands. Cook rates it Toss-up. No mid-decade redistricting in Washington, the state uses a bipartisan commission. Primary August 4, 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
9 marketsWashington U.S. House Election History
Washington's House delegation has leaned Democratic for years, currently 8-2, drawn by a bipartisan redistricting commission that insulates the map from the mid-decade partisan redraws seen in Texas and Ohio. The state's top-two blanket primary, where the two highest finishers advance regardless of party, occasionally produces same-party general elections, as it did in the Republican-held WA-4 in 2024.
The 2026 marquee races are WA-4, opened by the retirement of Dan Newhouse, one of the last two House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, and WA-3, where Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has twice held a Trump-leaning southwest district by narrow margins. Perez faces a stronger Republican in state Senate Minority Leader John Braun, and Cook rates the seat a toss-up, making it the one genuinely competitive Washington House race the markets follow closely.
Washington Presidential Election Betting Odds
The numbers tell the story. Washington has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988. Harris won by 18.2 points in 2024, and notably, the swing from 2020 was under 1 point, the smallest pro-Trump shift of any state. While New York shifted 11 points toward Trump and California shifted 9, Washington essentially held the same partisan composition it had in 2020.
For 2028, Washington is not a competitive presidential market. Cook PVI rates it at D+8, putting it solidly with Oregon, New Mexico, and other West Coast Democratic states. The state's 12 electoral votes are not in play. The 2024 stability is notable for what it suggests about Washington's political composition: a Democratic-leaning state with limited working-class realignment, anchored by Seattle, the Eastside tech corridor, and a Latino population that did not swing right as significantly as in Texas or Nevada.
Washington Presidential Election History
Washington was a presidential swing state through the 1980s, backing Republicans including Reagan, before realigning Democratic in 1988, the only state Michael Dukakis flipped from red to blue that year. It has voted Democratic in every election since, with margins steadily widening from the high single digits to the high teens as the Seattle tech economy grew.
Harris won by 18.2 points in 2024, and remarkably the shift from 2020 was under a point, the smallest pro-Trump move of any state, even as New York and California swung sharply. That stability marks Washington as a Democratic-leaning state with little of the working-class realignment seen elsewhere. Its 12 electoral votes are safely Democratic and not contested for 2028.
Washington Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Washington politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Washington Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Washington's House races, the state's only federal contests this cycle. The two to watch are WA-4, the open central-Washington seat where Trump-endorsed Amanda McKinney leads a crowded Republican field after Dan Newhouse's retirement, and WA-3, where Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defends a Trump-leaning district against Republican John Braun. There is no governor or Senate race this cycle.
Washington's top-two primary means the key question in WA-4 is which two candidates advance to November, possibly two Republicans, so watch the primary field as closely as any head-to-head. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Washington governor polls
No Washington governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Washington U.S. Senate polls
No Washington U.S. Senate polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Washington a red state or a blue state?
Washington is a solidly Democratic state at the statewide level, with rural Republican strength east of the Cascades. Harris carried it by nearly 18 points in 2024, Democrats hold every statewide office, and Cook PVI rates it D+8.
Are there any statewide races in Washington in 2026?
No. There is no governor race (Bob Ferguson was elected in 2024) and no Senate race (Murray is up in 2028, Cantwell in 2030). The only federal contests are the 10 U.S. House seats.
Why is WA-4 a national story?
Six-term Republican Dan Newhouse, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, retired in December 2025. Trump endorsed Amanda McKinney to replace him, but her shifting record on Newhouse has become a campaign issue in a six-way Republican primary that, under the top-two system, could send two Republicans to November.
Can Marie Gluesenkamp Perez hold WA-3?
It is a toss-up. Perez, one of the few Democrats in a Trump-leaning district, won the 2024 rematch by 4 points on her blue-collar appeal. In 2026 she faces a stronger Republican, state Senate Minority Leader John Braun.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.