Washington Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Washington’s federal ballot in 2026 is the lightest of any large state. There’s no governor’s race (Bob Ferguson was just elected in 2024), no Senate race (Murray and Cantwell were both just re-elected), and the only statewide-relevant federal contests are the 10 House races — one of which has become a national story. WA-4 in central Washington opened up in December 2025 when six-term Republican Dan Newhouse, one of only two House Republicans remaining who voted to impeach Trump after January 6, announced his retirement. The Trump-endorsed candidate to replace him, Amanda McKinney, has a complicated history with Newhouse that has become a real campaign issue. Beyond WA-4, the state’s most competitive seat is WA-3, where Marie Gluesenkamp Perez survived a 2024 rematch by 4 points and faces another tough race in 2026. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Washington governor betting odds

No governor race in 2026. The next Washington gubernatorial election is in 2028.

Bob Ferguson was elected governor in November 2024 with 56% of the vote, succeeding three-term Democrat Jay Inslee. Ferguson previously served as Washington Attorney General from 2013 to 2025 and built a national profile filing lawsuits against the first Trump administration. His current term runs through January 2029.

Washington presidential election betting odds

The numbers tell the story. Washington has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988. Harris won by 18.2 points in 2024 — and notably, the swing from 2020 was under 1 point, the smallest pro-Trump shift of any state. While New York shifted 11 points toward Trump and California shifted 9, Washington essentially held the same partisan composition it had in 2020.

For 2028, Washington is not a competitive presidential market. Cook PVI rates it at D+8, putting it solidly with Oregon, New Mexico, and other West Coast Democratic states. The state’s 12 electoral votes are not in play.

The 2024 stability is notable for what it suggests about Washington’s political composition: a Democratic-leaning state with limited working-class realignment, anchored by Seattle, the Eastside tech corridor, and a Latino population that did not swing right as significantly as in Texas or Nevada.

Washington senate betting odds

Neither Washington Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Senator Patty Murray, the longest-serving woman in U.S. Senate history, won her sixth term in 2022 and is next up in 2028. Senator Maria Cantwell won her fifth term in 2024 by 18 points and is next up in 2030. Cantwell’s 2024 margin actually outpaced Harris’s at the top of the ticket — one of the cleaner Democratic Senate performances in any swing or blue state.

For long-range markets, Murray’s 2028 race is the more interesting one — she’ll be 78 by November 2028, and there has been quiet speculation about a potential retirement. No public announcement has been made.

Washington house betting odds

Washington has 10 House seats, currently split 8 Democrats to 2 Republicans. Washington uses a top-two blanket primary — every candidate from every party appears on the same primary ballot, and the top two advance to the general regardless of party. This produces unusual dynamics: in 2024, two Republicans advanced to the general election in WA-4, and the same dynamic could repeat in 2026.

WA-4 is the marquee race. Dan Newhouse announced retirement on December 17, 2025 after 12 years. Newhouse was one of just 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021; by 2026, only he and David Valadao (CA) remained in Congress from that group. The seat is solid Republican territory — the 4th covers Yakima, the Tri-Cities, and most of central Washington east of the Cascades — but the Republican primary is now a six-way fight.

Trump endorsed Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney on January 6, 2026. McKinney’s complication: she appeared in a 2024 endorsement ad for Newhouse against Trump-backed Jerrod Sessler, then told an AmericaFest crowd in December 2025 that she had spent two years “working to retire” Newhouse over his impeachment vote. Sessler, Newhouse’s two-time challenger, accused her of lying about her record. Other Republicans in the primary include state Sen. Matt Boehnke, Wesley Meier, John Hughs, and former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler. One Democrat (John Duresky, retired Air Force) and one independent (Devin Poore) are also running. With the top-two system, two Republicans could easily advance to November.

WA-3 is the state’s most competitive seat. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania), one of the few Democrats representing a Trump district, won the 2024 rematch against Joe Kent by 4 points. Her 2026 challenger is state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R), considered a stronger candidate than Kent. WA-3 stretches from Vancouver across rural southwest Washington — a district where Perez’s blue-collar appeal has been the only thing keeping the seat in Democratic hands. Cook rates it Toss-up.

No mid-decade redistricting in Washington — the state uses a bipartisan commission. Primary August 4, 2026.