Connecticut Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Connecticut's ballot has one statewide race and no federal Senate contest. Governor Ned Lamont is running for a third term — Connecticut has no term limits, and Lamont is one of the most popular governors in the country with a 63% approval rating. But the same polling shows 44% of Connecticut voters say he shouldn't run again, and a progressive primary challenge from state Rep. Josh Elliott is testing whether Lamont's moderate Democratic profile remains viable in a state party that has shifted left. Five House seats — all Democratic — round out the federal ballot. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Connecticut governor betting odds

Lamont, the cable television entrepreneur who first ran for office in a 2006 U.S. Senate primary challenge to Joe Lieberman, is now a two-term incumbent governor seeking a third term. He won 2018 by 3 points and 2022 by 13. He officially announced his re-election bid in November 2025, despite earlier expressing doubts about running again. Connecticut has no gubernatorial term limits — Lamont could continue running indefinitely if he chooses.

The Democratic primary features one challenger: state Rep. Josh Elliott (D-Hamden, House Progressive Caucus leader). Elliott is running to Lamont's left, criticizing the governor's vetoes of YIMBY housing reforms (HB 5002) and striking-worker jobless benefits (SB 8). His campaign frames the primary as "a fight for the soul of the party." Lamont has endorsements from both U.S. senators (Blumenthal and Murphy), the bulk of the Democratic establishment, and labor unions including the Connecticut State Building Trades.

The Republican primary is four-way: state Sen. Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich, investment advisor, ranking member of the Energy Committee) is the establishment favorite; former Westport First Selectwoman Jennifer Tooker; former Lt. Gov. of New York Betsy McCaughey; former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart. Connecticut has not elected a Republican to statewide office since Jodi Rell's 2006 gubernatorial re-election. Cook rates Likely Democratic. Primary August 11, 2026.

Connecticut presidential election betting odds

Connecticut's Democratic presidential streak — every cycle since 1992 — is among the longest in the country. Harris won by 14 points in 2024, a 6-point shift toward Trump from Biden's 20-point margin in 2020. The Trump-era erosion of Connecticut's Democratic margin has been steady but has not put the state in genuine competitive territory.

Cook PVI rates Connecticut D+7. For 2028, the state is Likely to Solid Democratic. Sen. Chris Murphy has been mentioned in 2028 Democratic primary markets — he's a top-tier Senate Democrat on health care and gun policy — but has not signaled interest.

Connecticut senate betting odds

No Connecticut Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (elected 2010, re-elected 2016 and 2022) is next up in 2028. Sen. Chris Murphy (elected 2012, re-elected 2018 and 2024) is next up in 2030. Both senators endorsed Gov. Lamont's re-election in March 2026.

Murphy's 2030 race is the long-range market with the most attention. He's been one of the more prominent national Democratic voices since the post-2024 cycle, and his name appears regularly in 2028 presidential conversations. A Murphy presidential bid would not require him to resign his Senate seat under Connecticut law.

Connecticut house betting odds

The Connecticut House delegation is the smallest all-Democratic delegation in the country: five seats, all Democrats. CT-1 (John Larson, Hartford-area), CT-2 (Joe Courtney, eastern Connecticut), CT-3 (Rosa DeLauro, New Haven-area), CT-4 (Jim Himes, Fairfield County), and CT-5 (Jahana Hayes, northwestern Connecticut). All five incumbents are running for re-election. The Connecticut Republican Party last held a Connecticut House seat in 2008 (Chris Shays, CT-4).

Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, who briefly considered running for governor, is running for U.S. House. The most competitive Connecticut House race is typically CT-5 (Hayes won 2024 by 6 points) but no race in the state is currently rated competitive by national handicappers.

No mid-decade redistricting in Connecticut.