Georgia Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Georgia is a true swing state and the most-watched state in 2026 for one specific reason: Senator Jon Ossoff is the only Democratic senator on the ballot in a state Trump won in 2024. His race is expected to cost between $650 million and $800 million, which would make it the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history. Georgia's gubernatorial race is also open this year — Brian Kemp is term-limited — and the May 19 primary is one week away. Compounding everything: every one of Georgia's four top constitutional offices (governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state) is on the 2026 ballot, and none of the incumbents are running for re-election to those seats. This has never happened in modern Georgia political history. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Georgia governor betting odds

The Republican primary on May 19 — in one week — is the headline race in Georgia after Senate. Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones leads the polling and the markets. He has Trump's endorsement, received August 11, 2025, and was an alternate elector for Trump in 2020 who supported the post-election lawsuits. The most recent Cygnal poll showed Jones at 22% to healthcare executive Rick Jackson's 16%, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger's 10%, and Attorney General Chris Carr's 7%. Polymarket trades Jones at roughly 68% to win the primary, with Carr second at 16%.

The 2020 election is a major dividing line in the field. Jones supported Trump's lawsuits and the call for a special legislative session to declare Trump the winner. Raffensperger and Carr did not — Raffensperger famously fielded the call in which Trump asked him to "find 11,780 votes." Jackson has positioned himself as the political outsider, criticizing Raffensperger over the 2020 aftermath. If no candidate clears 50% on May 19, the top two advance to a June 16 runoff.

The Democratic primary features former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, former Republican Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan (who switched parties in 2024), state Senator Jason Esteves, former DeKalb County CEO Michael Thurmond, and three others. The race has drawn less national attention than the Republican primary because of Georgia's broader Republican lean at the statewide level, though Democrats believe their position is improving — the November 2025 Public Service Commission elections flipped two seats from Republican to Democratic.

Georgia presidential election betting odds

Georgia is one of the seven 2024 swing states and has voted for the eventual presidential winner in every election since 1996 except 2020, when the state went for Biden by 11,779 votes. Trump won it back by 2.2 points in 2024. Cook PVI rates Georgia at R+3, the smallest Republican lean among the southern states.

For 2028, Georgia is among the most critical swing states in any presidential market. Both major parties view it as essential to their Electoral College math. Trump's 2024 margin was small enough that a normal political environment in 2028 puts Georgia back into competitive territory, and prediction markets pricing 2028 presidential outcomes generate significant Georgia-specific activity. Senator Raphael Warnock, who won statewide in 2020, 2021, and 2022, is occasionally mentioned in 2028 Democratic markets but has not signaled interest.

Georgia senate betting odds

This is the highest-stakes Senate race in the country. Jon Ossoff is the only Democratic senator on the 2026 ballot representing a state Trump won in 2024, which makes his seat the single most important hold for Democrats hoping to flip the Senate majority. Republicans need a net gain of four seats to lock in their majority through 2028; flipping Ossoff is essential to that math.

Ossoff is running unopposed in the Democratic primary. He raised approximately $42 million since 2020 and is the top Senate fundraiser in the country.

The Republican primary on May 19 is a four-way race. Representative Mike Collins leads polling, Representative Buddy Carter is close behind, and Derek Dooley — former University of Tennessee head football coach and son of legendary Georgia football coach Vince Dooley — has Governor Kemp's endorsement and a Kemp leadership PAC behind him. Dooley entered with the strongest establishment backing but lower name recognition than the two sitting congressmen. Brigadier General Jonathan McColumn rounds out the major field. If no candidate clears 50% on May 19, the top two advance to a June 16 runoff. Governor Kemp himself declined to run for the seat in May 2025, removing what would have been the strongest Republican candidate.

Trump has not endorsed in the primary as of mid-May 2026. The eventual nominee will face Ossoff in November. Early Emerson polling shows Ossoff leading Carter by 6 points and Dooley by 5 points in hypothetical general-election matchups. If the November race fails to produce a majority, Georgia holds a runoff on December 1, 2026 — the latest possible resolution to the 2026 Senate balance of power.

Raphael Warnock, the state's other senator, is not on the 2026 ballot. His next election is 2028.

Georgia house betting odds

Georgia has 14 House seats, split 9 Republicans to 5 Democrats heading into 2026. The state's congressional map is currently subject to ongoing litigation in federal court but is being used for the 2026 elections. No mid-decade redistricting has been passed in Georgia.

A meaningful 2026 sub-story is the special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned from Georgia's 14th Congressional District effective January 5, 2026. The special primary was held March 10, 2026, with qualifying having closed January 12-13. The seat is solid Republican, but the open race attracted a crowded primary field. Greene's resignation came amid public clashes with Trump over multiple policy issues and continued investigations into her actions during the 2024 cycle.

Beyond GA-14, the competitive districts are GA-2 (Sanford Bishop, narrow Democratic hold) and GA-13 (David Scott, longtime incumbent whose health has reportedly declined). Both districts attract some market activity, but neither is rated as a true toss-up by major race-rating outlets. The bulk of Georgia-related 2026 House market activity centers on the implications of redistricting in other states for the overall House balance of power.