2026 Election Tracker
Georgia Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Georgia 2026 election odds for Jon Ossoff's record-spending Senate defense, the open governor race, and all 14 House districts in this true swing state.
| Electoral votes | 16 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 50.7% / Harris 48.5% (R+2.2 margin) |
| Current governor | Brian Kemp (R), term-limited |
| U.S. senators | Jon Ossoff (D, on 2026 ballot), Raphael Warnock (D, next 2028) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor (open), U.S. Senate, all 14 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | R+3 |
Georgia is a true swing state and the most-watched state in 2026 for one specific reason: Senator Jon Ossoff is the only Democratic senator on the ballot in a state Trump won in 2024. His race is expected to cost between $650 million and $800 million, which would make it the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history. After the May 19, 2026 primary, both the governor and Senate Republican races head to a June 16 runoff. Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and billionaire businessman Rick Jackson advanced on the GOP side for governor, while Rep. Mike Collins and former Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley advanced for Senate. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms cleared the Democratic governor primary outright. Compounding everything: every one of Georgia's four top constitutional offices (governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state) is on the 2026 ballot, and none of the incumbents are running for re-election to those seats. This has never happened in modern Georgia political history. No matter what Georgia election you want, the team here at ElectionOdds.com has it covered.
Is Georgia a Red State or a Blue State?
Georgia is a swing state with a slight Republican lean, after flipping briefly to Democrats in 2020. Trump carried Georgia by 2.2 points in 2024, recapturing it after Biden won it by 0.2 points in 2020. The 2020 result was Georgia's first Democratic presidential vote since Bill Clinton in 1992. Cook PVI rates Georgia R+3. The state has moved decisively into the competitive column over the past decade, driven by the rapid growth and diversification of the Atlanta metro area.
The downballot picture leans Republican but with one major Democratic exception. Republicans hold the governorship (Brian Kemp, term-limited in January 2027), the Lt. Governor's office (Burt Jones), both chambers of the state legislature, and most statewide offices. The exception is the U.S. Senate, where Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock both won their seats in the 2021 runoffs that gave Democrats their narrow Senate majority. Warnock won reelection in 2022 by 2.8 points. Ossoff faces a competitive 2026 reelection.
Georgia's transformation has been driven almost entirely by the Atlanta metro area. The five core Atlanta counties (Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry) vote Democratic by large margins and contain roughly 40% of the state's population. Cobb and Gwinnett were Republican strongholds as recently as 2012 but have shifted Democratic with suburban growth and increased racial diversity. The rest of Georgia, including most rural counties and the smaller metro areas of Augusta, Macon, and Savannah, votes Republican by large margins. The state's Black population, roughly 32% of registered voters, is the largest of any battleground state and the central factor in Democratic competitiveness. Black voter turnout in Georgia consistently runs higher than the national average for Black voters, in part because of decades of organizing by groups like the New Georgia Project and Fair Fight.
Georgia has 16 electoral votes through 2030. The 2026 governor's race between Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R, favored) and the Democratic nominee is expected to be competitive.
Will Georgia stay competitive? Yes. The Atlanta metro continues to grow and diversify, and the rural Republican counties continue to lose population. The structural forces are pulling Georgia slowly toward Democrats, even as Republicans currently hold the political advantage. Polymarket prices Georgia as one of the most likely 2028 tipping-point states. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Georgia Governor Betting Odds
The Republican primary on May 19, 2026 did not produce a clear winner. Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who had Trump's endorsement, and billionaire healthcare businessman Rick Jackson advanced to a June 16 runoff after neither cleared 50 percent. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Chris Carr were eliminated. The race became the third-most expensive gubernatorial primary on record, with over $100 million in spending and Jackson personally putting in more than $80 million of his own money. The fact that Trump endorsed Jones but couldn't push him past the 50 percent threshold is being read across the political press as a meaningful test of Trump's primary influence in Georgia.
The 2020 election was a major dividing line in the field. Jones supported Trump's lawsuits and the call for a special legislative session to declare Trump the winner. Raffensperger and Carr did not, Raffensperger famously fielded the call in which Trump asked him to "find 11,780 votes." Jackson positioned himself as the political outsider and ran against Raffensperger over the 2020 aftermath. The June 16 runoff between Jones and Jackson will determine the GOP nominee.
The Democratic primary was won outright by former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who avoided a runoff and goes straight to the November general election. The field had included former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (who switched parties in 2024), state Sen. Jason Esteves, former DeKalb County CEO Michael Thurmond, and several others. Bottoms has said she plans to focus on opposing Trump and contrasting herself with whichever Republican emerges from the June 16 runoff. See more of the election odds for Governor races here.
Governor
Governor primary
Georgia Governor Election History
Democrats held the Georgia governorship continuously from Reconstruction until 2002, when Republican Sonny Perdue scored a historic upset over incumbent Democrat Roy Barnes, the first Republican to win the office since 1868. Perdue's win cemented the realignment of white Georgia voters, and Republicans have held the governorship ever since, through Nathan Deal (2010, 2014) and Brian Kemp.
Kemp won two of the most closely watched races in the country against Democrat Stacey Abrams, by 1.4 points in 2018 and a wider 7.5 points in 2022. With Kemp term-limited, 2026 is an open race that went to a June 16 Republican runoff between Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and self-funding businessman Rick Jackson, while Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms cleared her primary outright. The markets favor the eventual Republican but treat the general election as genuinely competitive, in keeping with Georgia's swing-state status.
Georgia Senate Betting Odds
This is the highest-stakes Senate race in the country. Jon Ossoff is the only Democratic senator on the 2026 ballot representing a state Trump won in 2024, which makes his seat the single most important hold for Democrats hoping to flip the Senate majority. Republicans need a net gain of four seats to lock in their majority through 2028; flipping Ossoff is essential to that math. Ossoff is running unopposed in the Democratic primary. He raised approximately $42 million since 2020 and is the top Senate fundraiser in the country.
The Republican primary on May 19, 2026 sent Rep. Mike Collins and Derek Dooley to a June 16 runoff. Rep. Buddy Carter, the third major candidate, was eliminated. Dooley, the former University of Tennessee head football coach and son of legendary Georgia football coach Vince Dooley, entered with Gov. Kemp's endorsement and a Kemp leadership PAC behind him but had lower name recognition than the two sitting congressmen. Collins came in ahead but short of the 50 percent needed to win outright. Trump did not endorse in the primary, and Gov. Kemp himself declined to run for the seat in May 2025, removing what would have been the strongest Republican candidate.
The runoff winner will face Ossoff, who was unopposed in the Democratic primary and now has nearly six months of additional fundraising while Republicans spend another month attacking each other. Early Emerson polling had shown Ossoff leading Collins and Dooley by 5-6 points in hypothetical general-election matchups. If the November race fails to produce a majority, Georgia holds a runoff on December 1, 2026, the latest possible resolution to the 2026 Senate balance of power. Raphael Warnock, the state's other senator, is not on the 2026 ballot. His next election is 2028. We have election odds for all senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Senate primary
2 marketsGeorgia U.S. Senate Election History
Georgia's Senate seats were Republican for two decades before the 2020 cycle remade them. In the January 2021 runoffs, Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock defeated Republican incumbents David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler on the same night, flipping both seats and giving Democrats a 50-50 Senate majority, an outcome that would have been unthinkable a decade earlier.
Warnock won a full term in 2022 by 2.8 points in a December runoff against Herschel Walker, and is not up again until 2028. Ossoff's seat is the marquee race of 2026, the only Democratic-held Senate seat on the ballot in a state Trump carried, and projected to become the most expensive Senate race in history. The Republican nominee will emerge from a June 16 Collins-Dooley runoff, and the markets treat the general as a tossup with Ossoff a slight early favorite.
Georgia House Betting Odds
Georgia has 14 House seats, split 9 Republicans to 5 Democrats heading into 2026. The state's congressional map is currently subject to ongoing litigation in federal court, but is being used for the 2026 house elections. No mid-decade redistricting has been passed in Georgia.
Two seats are open in 2026 due to departures. Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned from GA-14 effective January 5, 2026, amid public clashes with Trump over multiple policy issues. The special primary was held March 10, 2026, and the seat is solid Republican. Rep. David Scott (D, GA-13) died on April 22, 2026 at age 80 after representing his Atlanta-area district for 12 terms. Scott had filed to seek a 13th term and was on the May 19 primary ballot. Gov. Kemp called a special election for July 28, 2026, with a runoff (if needed) on August 25. The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of Scott's term, while a separate Democratic primary for the full term beginning in 2027 also occurred on May 19. GA-13 is D+21 by Cook PVI, so the seat will remain Democratic, but the open primary attracted a crowded field including former Gwinnett school board chair Everton Blair, state Rep. Jasmine Clark, and state Sen. Emanuel Jones.
Beyond GA-13 and GA-14, the most competitive district is GA-2 (Sanford Bishop, narrow Democratic hold). The bulk of Georgia-related 2026 House market activity centers on the Ossoff Senate race and the gubernatorial runoff rather than individual House contests. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
14 marketsGeorgia U.S. House Election History
Georgia's House delegation has tracked the state's Republican lean, sitting at 9-5 Republican for most of the decade, a split shaped by aggressive Republican redistricting after the 2020 census that has been the subject of repeated Voting Rights Act litigation. Courts have ordered map changes before, and the current lines remain under federal challenge even as they are used for 2026.
The 2026 cycle opened two seats in unusual ways: Marjorie Taylor Greene's resignation from the solidly Republican GA-14 after a public break with Trump, and the death of 12-term Democrat David Scott in the safely Democratic Atlanta-area GA-13, which triggered a July special election and a crowded primary. Outside those, GA-2, held by veteran Democrat Sanford Bishop, is the one genuinely competitive district. Most Georgia market attention, though, flows to the Senate and governor races rather than the House map.
Georgia Presidential Election Betting Odds
Georgia is one of the seven 2024 swing states and has voted for the eventual presidential winner in every election since 1996 except 2020, when the state went for Biden by 11,779 votes. Trump won it back by 2.2 points in 2024. Cook PVI rates Georgia at R+3, the smallest Republican lean among the southern states.
For 2028, Georgia is among the most critical swing states in any presidential election market. Both major parties view it as essential to their Electoral College math. Trump's 2024 margin was small enough that a normal political environment in 2028 puts Georgia back into competitive territory, and prediction markets pricing 2028 presidential outcomes generate significant Georgia-specific activity. Senator Raphael Warnock, who won statewide in 2020, 2021, and 2022, is occasionally mentioned in 2028 Democratic markets but has not signaled interest.
Georgia Presidential Election History
Georgia was a reliably Republican presidential state from 1996 through 2016, backing GOP nominees by margins that gradually narrowed as the Atlanta metro grew and diversified. The breakthrough came in 2020, when Joe Biden carried the state by 11,779 votes, the first Democratic presidential win in Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992 and the trigger for the two January 2021 Senate runoffs that handed Democrats the chamber.
Trump recaptured Georgia in 2024 by 2.2 points, the smallest Republican margin of any Southern state, confirming the state's status as a genuine battleground rather than a one-cycle fluke. Its 16 electoral votes are now central to both parties' paths to 270, and the markets price Georgia as one of the likeliest tipping-point states for 2028.
Georgia Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Georgia politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Georgia Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Georgia's marquee races. The biggest number in the country is the Senate matchup, where Democrat Jon Ossoff faces the winner of the June 16 Republican runoff between Mike Collins and Derek Dooley. In the open governor's race, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms awaits the Republican runoff winner, Burt Jones or Rick Jackson.
Georgia is decided at the margins, so watch the Atlanta-metro suburban counties (Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry) and Black voter turnout, the two factors that swing the state. Early Emerson polling had Ossoff up 5-6 points on both potential Republican opponents. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Georgia governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | June 15, 2026 | 800 (LV) | Rick Jackson 48% · Burt Jones 47% · Undecided 5% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | June 13–14, 2026 | 800 (LV) | Rick Jackson 49% · Burt Jones 46% · Undecided 5% |
| Cygnal (R) | June 5–7, 2026 | – (LV) | Rick Jackson 56% · Burt Jones 44% |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | May 30 – June 2, 2026 | 510 (LV) | Rick Jackson (R) 38% · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 53% · Undecided 9% |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | May 30 – June 2, 2026 | 510 (LV) | Burt Jones (R) 42% · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 52% · Undecided 6% |
| JMC Analytics (R) | May 26–27, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Rick Jackson 45% · Burt Jones 43% · Undecided 12% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 12 minutes ago.
Georgia U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | June 15, 2026 | 800 (LV) | Mike Collins 50% · Derek Dooley 48% · Undecided 2% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | June 13–14, 2026 | 800 (LV) | Mike Collins 48% · Derek Dooley 46% · Undecided 6% |
| JMC Analytics (R) | May 26–27, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Mike Collins 55% · Derek Dooley 39% · Undecided 6% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | May 20–21, 2026 | 800 (LV) | Mike Collins 46% · Derek Dooley 41% · Undecided 13% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | May 20, 2026 | 782 (LV) | Mike Collins 54% · Derek Dooley 37% · Undecided 9% |
| RealClearPolitics | April 18 – May 17, 2026 | Buddy Carter 14.8% · Mike Collins 29.5% · Derek Dooley 18% · Other/Undecided 37.7% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Georgia under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 12 minutes ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Georgia a red state or a blue state?
Georgia is a swing state with a slight Republican lean. Trump carried it by 2.2 points in 2024 after Biden narrowly won it in 2020, and Cook PVI rates it R+3, the smallest Republican lean of any Southern state.
Why is the Georgia Senate race so important?
Jon Ossoff is the only Democratic senator on the 2026 ballot in a state Trump won in 2024, making his seat the single most important hold for Democrats hoping to flip the Senate. It is projected to become the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history.
Who is running for Georgia governor in 2026?
It is an open race because Brian Kemp is term-limited. Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms won her primary outright, while Republicans Burt Jones (Trump-endorsed) and Rick Jackson advanced to a June 16 runoff after neither cleared 50 percent.
When is the Georgia runoff?
The primary runoffs for governor and the Republican Senate race are June 16, 2026. If the November general election produces no majority, Georgia holds a general-election runoff on December 1, 2026, which could be the last race to decide Senate control.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.