Idaho Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Idaho's federal ballot in 2026 is, by the numbers, the most Republican in the country. Trump won the state by 37 points. Both senators are Republican. Both House members are Republican. Every statewide constitutional officer is Republican. Idaho hasn't elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 2002. So the actual political conversation happens inside Republican primaries on May 19 — including Sen. Jim Risch's bid for a fourth term at age 82 (with Trump's endorsement) and Gov. Brad Little's bid for a third (Idaho has no governor term limits). The most interesting candidate on the general election ballot is Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state representative who resigned his seat in June 2025 to run for Senate as an independent — a profile that hasn't worked in Idaho for two decades but reflects how Democrats have decided to compete in the state. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Idaho governor betting odds

Brad Little, a fourth-generation Idaho rancher and former lieutenant governor, won the office in 2018 by 21 points and was re-elected in 2022 by 41 — both wins under Idaho's modern political alignment. He has been broadly considered a center-right Republican governor: pragmatic on policy, willing to break with the more populist wing on issues like education funding, but rarely confrontational with Trump or the national party.

Idaho has no gubernatorial term limits. Little is seeking a third term. His May 19 Republican primary has multiple challengers but none with the statewide profile to seriously threaten him. The Democratic primary features state Sen. Maxine Durand, attorney Terri Pickens, and Chanelle Torrez. The general election is a formality: Cook rates Solid Republican.

Idaho's most politically interesting recent dynamic has been the rightward drift of the state Republican Party itself, with the Idaho GOP increasingly distinct from the more moderate governor wing. Little's primary contests have reflected that tension but he has won them comfortably.

Idaho presidential election betting odds

Idaho is one of three states where Trump's 2024 margin exceeded 35 points — only West Virginia and Wyoming gave him bigger wins. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968 except for LBJ's 1964 win. Cook PVI rates Idaho R+18.

For 2028, the 4 electoral votes are safe Republican. No Idaho politician currently appears in 2028 presidential markets. Idaho's congressional delegation has produced few national-profile figures — Larry Craig, Mike Crapo, and Jim Risch have served long Senate tenures without significant presidential ambition.

Idaho senate betting odds

Risch is 82 years old, in his third Senate term, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Trump-endorsed for a fourth term. His May 19 Republican primary has minor challengers (Joe Evans, Denny LaVe, Josh Roy) and is not seriously contested.

The Democratic primary nominated state Sen. Patrick Schmidt (also running for Senate in 2026 in Kansas — different Patrick Schmidt), or rather: David Roth (2022 Senate nominee), Nickolas Bonds, and Brad Moore are competing on the Democratic side.

The general-election challenger getting national attention is Todd Achilles, an Army veteran and former state representative who resigned his Idaho House seat in June 2025 — as a Democrat — to run for Senate as an independent. Achilles has framed his campaign around concerns about U.S. military intervention abroad, religious freedom, and the policy direction of the second Trump administration. He's polling in single digits; the structural challenge is that Idaho's independent statewide vote has not exceeded 10% since the 1970s.

Risch will turn 83 before the November election and would be 89 at the end of a fourth term. Cook rates Solid Republican.

Idaho house betting odds

Both Idaho House seats are safely Republican. ID-1 (Russ Fulcher, northern Idaho including Coeur d'Alene) is running for a fifth term and faces two Republican primary challengers (Joseph Morrison and Andy Briner) — but Fulcher remains the favorite. ID-2 (Mike Simpson, eastern Idaho including Idaho Falls) is running for re-election to a 15th term; he's the dean of the Idaho delegation.

Both general elections will be no-contest. The Democratic primary candidates for both seats have low name recognition and minimal fundraising. Idaho has not had a competitive House race since the 2006 cycle.

No mid-decade redistricting in Idaho. Primary May 19, 2026.