Louisiana Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

There's a lot happening in Louisiana right now, and most of it just got more complicated. The biggest race on Saturday — Sen. Bill Cassidy's Republican primary, four days from now — is a referendum on whether a Republican who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment can survive a Trump-endorsed challenge from his own colleague. Meanwhile, the rest of the May 16 primary ballot has a strange asterisk: the U.S. House races are technically on the ballot, but no votes for those races will count. That's because the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Louisiana's congressional map on April 29 in Louisiana v. Callais, and Governor Jeff Landry suspended the House primaries until July 15 (or whenever the legislature finishes drawing a new map). About 42,000 people had already voted absentee when Landry issued the order. No governor race this cycle — Landry is on the 2027 ballot, not 2026. Welcome to the most confusing election in Louisiana in twenty years. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Louisiana governor betting odds

Louisiana operates on an odd-year gubernatorial cycle, so there's no governor race in 2026. Jeff Landry took office January 8, 2024 after winning the 2023 jungle primary outright with 52% of the vote. His current term runs through January 2028, and Louisiana's term-limit rule (two consecutive terms) means he's eligible to run again in 2027. The next Louisiana gubernatorial election is November 2027.

Landry has been one of the more visible governors of Trump's second term — both for his Ten Commandments display law (which the Fifth Circuit allowed to proceed in February 2026) and for his actions surrounding the post-Callais redistricting fight. He's seen as one of the more aggressive Republican governors and a likely candidate to be in 2028 vice presidential conversations.

Louisiana presidential election betting odds

Louisiana hasn't been competitive at the presidential level in a generation — Trump won by 22 points in 2024, by 19 in 2020, by 20 in 2016. The state's 8 electoral votes are safe Republican.

Cook PVI rates Louisiana R+11. For 2028, no Louisiana politician currently has serious presidential profile, though Landry is mentioned in long-shot vice presidential markets and Senator Cassidy — if he survives his primary — has historically been viewed as a potential moderate Republican option who has now been politically rebranded by his Trump opposition.

Louisiana senate betting odds

Bill Cassidy's primary is the most-watched intra-Republican Senate race of the cycle. Cassidy was one of seven Republican senators to vote to convict Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial — for which he was censured by the Louisiana Republican Party. He's been a target of Trump's "revenge tour" ever since.

The May 16 primary field:

• Bill Cassidy (incumbent, polling third at 21% in April Emerson polling). The April poll showed Cassidy with a significant fundraising lead but trailing on name preference among the most-Trump-aligned primary voters.
• U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow (LA-5, the rural northeast district). She's the only woman in Louisiana's congressional delegation and earned Trump's endorsement on January 18, 2026. Trump's pick.
• State Treasurer John Fleming, former U.S. representative (LA-4) and former Trump administration official. Has the most Trump-administration governing experience in the field.

Louisiana adopted closed party primaries for the first time since 2010 under HB 17 (signed by Landry in 2024). If no candidate gets a majority on May 16, the top two go to a June 27 runoff. Letlow and Fleming are polling close to each other; both are positioning to make the runoff against Cassidy.

Cassidy publicly criticized Landry's decision to keep the Senate primary on May 16 while postponing the House primaries, calling it "disappointing" and suggesting it was designed to hurt his campaign by adding voter confusion. Asked whether Landry intentionally hurt his campaign, Cassidy said he didn't know. Letlow benefits from the lower turnout that confusion produces. Cook rates the Republican primary the marquee race; the general election is Solid Republican (LA hasn't elected a Democrat to U.S. Senate since 2008).

Louisiana house betting odds

Here's where things get unusual. On April 29, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Louisiana v. Callais that the state's congressional map — which contained two majority-Black districts to comply with the Voting Rights Act, including the newly-drawn LA-6 held by Rep. Cleo Fields — was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. The ruling effectively eliminated VRA Section 2 as a barrier to states drawing maps that reduce minority representation.

On the same day, Louisiana Secretary of State Nancy Landry confirmed that the May 16 U.S. House primaries would be "suspended" — votes cast for House candidates would not count. Mail ballots had already been sent to voters. About 42,000 absentee ballots had been cast by the time the order was issued. The Senate primary, the state Supreme Court primary, the Public Service Commission primary, and the constitutional amendments all proceed normally on May 16.

Multiple lawsuits were filed against Landry's executive order. State courts denied requests for temporary restraining orders. A federal three-judge panel (two Trump appointees and an Obama appointee) is also reviewing the suspension. The legislature is in regular session through June 1 and is expected to pass a new congressional map; the new primary is currently scheduled for July 15 unless the legislature sets a different date.

For 2026, the Louisiana congressional delegation is 4R-2D under the current map (Fields, Carter). After redistricting, expected to be 5R-1D or 6R-0D. The marquee House race is therefore not yet defined — it depends on what map the legislature draws, when courts rule on it, and which candidates redirect their campaigns to the redrawn districts.