2026 Election Tracker
Louisiana Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Louisiana 2026 election odds for Sen. Bill Cassidy's Trump-vote primary plus the suspended House races pending the post-Callais redistricting fight.
| Electoral votes | 8 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 60% / Harris 38% (R+22 margin) |
| Current governor | Jeff Landry (R), next election 2027 |
| U.S. senators | Bill Cassidy (R, lost primary May 16, term ends Jan 2027), John Kennedy (R, next 2028) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | U.S. Senate (Letlow-Fleming runoff June 27), all 6 U.S. House seats under new SB 121 map |
| Cook PVI | R+11 |
The dust has finally settled on the strangest two weeks in Louisiana politics in a generation. Sen. Bill Cassidy lost his Republican primary on May 16, finishing third behind Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and state Treasurer John Fleming, who now meet in a June 27 runoff. Cassidy is the first elected Republican senator to lose renomination since Richard Lugar in 2012. And on May 29, the state legislature passed a new congressional map under Senate Bill 121, replacing the one the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a month earlier in Louisiana v. Callais. The new map drops the state from two majority-Black districts to one and is expected to flip the congressional delegation from 4R-2D to 5R-1D. No governor race this cycle, Landry is on the 2027 ballot. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the ElectionOdds.com homepage.
Is Louisiana a Red State or a Blue State?
Louisiana is a red state, the latest in a string of formerly Democratic Southern states to swing decisively Republican. Trump carried Louisiana by 22.2 points in 2024, by 18.6 in 2020, and by 19.6 in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000 except for Bill Clinton's 1992 and 1996 wins. Cook PVI rates Louisiana R+12. As recently as 2003, Louisiana had a Democratic governor (Kathleen Blanco), Democratic U.S. senators, and a Democratic-controlled state legislature. By 2025, every statewide office and both legislative chambers were Republican.
The downballot picture is now overwhelmingly Republican. Republicans hold the governorship under Jeff Landry, who took office in January 2024 after winning the 2023 jungle primary outright with 52% of the vote. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (Bill Cassidy and John Kennedy), 5 of 6 U.S. House seats, and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The state has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 2014 (Mary Landrieu's loss to Bill Cassidy) and has not had a Democratic-controlled state legislature since 2010. Democrat John Bel Edwards, who held the governorship from 2016 to 2024, was the last statewide Democratic survivor.
Louisiana's voting pattern is unusual among Southern states because of its New Orleans concentration and its unique Catholic and Cajun cultural geography. Orleans Parish (New Orleans) and the immediately surrounding parishes vote Democratic. East Baton Rouge Parish, anchored by Louisiana State University and the state government, is competitive. The Acadiana parishes in south-central Louisiana, with their Cajun French heritage, vote Republican now after spending most of the 20th century as Democratic strongholds. The northern parishes and the Florida Parishes east of Baton Rouge vote Republican by large margins. The state's African American population, roughly 32%, is among the highest in the country and provides the Democratic base.
The state has been at the center of the 2025-2026 redistricting wars. Louisiana's congressional map was the subject of the Supreme Court's April 29, 2026 ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, which gutted Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The state suspended its May 16 primary election after over 100,000 early votes had been cast, forcing the legislature to redraw the map by early June. The Senate passed a new map on May 14 that eliminates one of the state's two majority-Black districts. Primaries have been rescheduled for November 3. Louisiana has 8 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Louisiana become competitive again? Not at the presidential or U.S. Senate level. The realignment is too durable, and the state's Black population is not large enough on its own to overcome the white Republican margins. Louisiana's politics will continue to be shaped by intra-Republican primaries (the state's unique jungle primary system means the most consequential races are often Republican-versus-Republican), rather than by Democratic competitiveness in November. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Louisiana Governor Betting Odds
Louisiana operates on an odd-year gubernatorial cycle, so there's no governor race in 2026. Jeff Landry took office January 8, 2024 after winning the 2023 jungle primary outright with 52% of the vote. His current term runs through January 2028, and Louisiana's term-limit rule (two consecutive terms) means he's eligible to run again in 2027. The next Louisiana gubernatorial election is November 2027.
Landry has been one of the more visible governors of Trump's second term, both for his Ten Commandments display law that the Fifth Circuit allowed to proceed in February 2026, and for his aggressive handling of the post-Callais redistricting fight. He suspended the May 16 House primaries after the Supreme Court ruling and pushed the legislature to pass a new map that delivered Republicans a fifth congressional seat. He is widely seen as one of the more aggressive Republican governors in the country and a likely name in 2028 vice presidential conversations. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Louisiana Governor Election History
Louisiana's governorship has alternated under its distinctive jungle-primary system, in which all candidates run on one ballot regardless of party. Republican Mike Foster gave way to Democrat Kathleen Blanco in 2003, whose tenure was defined by Hurricane Katrina. Republican Bobby Jindal won two terms beginning in 2007, and then Democrat John Bel Edwards won in 2015 and 2019, becoming the lone Democratic governor in the Deep South.
Republican Jeff Landry reclaimed the office in 2023, winning the jungle primary outright with 52 percent and avoiding a runoff. There is no 2026 governor's race, Louisiana votes in odd years, so Landry is up again in 2027. He has governed aggressively within the Trump coalition, from his Ten Commandments display law to his suspension of the 2026 House primaries during the post-Callais redistricting fight, and is floated in 2028 vice-presidential speculation.
Louisiana Senate Betting Odds
Bill Cassidy's career ended on May 16. Cassidy, one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict Donald Trump after the January 6 Capitol riot, finished third in his own primary at roughly 25 percent of the vote. Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow finished first at 45 percent. State Treasurer John Fleming finished second at 28 percent. The two advance to a June 27 runoff. Cassidy becomes the first elected Republican senator to lose renomination since Richard Lugar of Indiana in 2012.
The runoff is the live race now. Letlow enters as the favorite, carrying Trump's endorsement and the largest share of the primary vote, but Fleming proved unexpectedly resilient by running a self-financed, MAGA-heavy campaign that emphasized his service in the first Trump administration and his opposition to carbon capture, an issue that splits Louisiana Republicans. Trump endorsed Letlow early and has called both finalists "two great people" in social media posts, leaving room to maneuver. House Speaker Mike Johnson, who succeeded Fleming in the LA-4 House seat, has spoken favorably of both runoff candidates. The general election remains Solid Republican. Louisiana has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 2008, and whichever of the two wins the runoff is the heavy favorite in November.
Cassidy serves out his term until January 2027 and signaled in his concession speech that he may use his remaining months to be more openly critical of the Trump administration than he had been during the campaign. The May 16 primary field: Bill Cassidy (incumbent, polling third at 21% in April Emerson polling). The April poll showed Cassidy with a significant fundraising lead but trailing on name preference among the most-Trump-aligned primary voters. U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow (LA-5, the rural northeast district). She's the only woman in Louisiana's congressional delegation and earned Trump's endorsement on January 18, 2026. Trump's pick. State Treasurer John Fleming, former U.S. representative (LA-4) and former Trump administration official. Has the most Trump-administration governing experience in the field. Louisiana adopted closed party primaries for the first time since 2010 under HB 17 (signed by Landry in 2024). If no candidate gets a majority on May 16, the top two go to a June 27 runoff. Letlow and Fleming are polling close to each other; both are positioning to make the runoff against Cassidy. Cassidy publicly criticized Landry's decision to keep the Senate primary on May 16 while postponing the House primaries, calling it "disappointing" and suggesting it was designed to hurt his campaign by adding voter confusion. Asked whether Landry intentionally hurt his campaign, Cassidy said he didn't know. Letlow benefits from the lower turnout that confusion produces. Cook rates the Republican primary the marquee race; the general election is Solid Republican (LA hasn't elected a Democrat to U.S. Senate since 2008). See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Louisiana U.S. Senate Election History
Louisiana's Senate seats have been Republican for over a decade. Democrat Mary Landrieu held one for three terms until losing to Bill Cassidy in 2014, the last Democratic Senate win in the state, and John Kennedy has held the other since 2017. Both seats have been safely red since.
The 2026 cycle produced a shock: Cassidy, one of seven Republicans who voted to convict Trump after January 6, finished third in his own primary and was eliminated, the first elected Republican senator to lose renomination since Richard Lugar in 2012. Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow led the field and faces state Treasurer John Fleming in a June 27 runoff, with the general election rated Solid Republican.
Louisiana House Betting Odds
The Louisiana state legislature gave final passage to Senate Bill 121 on May 29, 2026, ending a month-long redistricting fight that began when the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the state's previous congressional map. The Court's 6-3 ruling in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29 found that the map's two majority-Black districts were an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, effectively removing Voting Rights Act Section 2 as a barrier against states drawing maps that reduce minority representation.
The new map drops Louisiana from two majority-Black districts to one. The surviving majority-Black district snakes from New Orleans through predominantly Black neighborhoods in Baton Rouge and is currently represented by Democratic Rep. Troy Carter. The dismantled district is LA-6, currently held by Democratic Rep. Cleo Fields, who won the seat in 2024 and previously represented a similar district from 1992 until federal courts struck it down in 1996. Under the new lines, Baton Rouge's Black population is split between two districts, and Shreveport is folded into the rest of northwest Louisiana. The expected partisan outcome is a 5R-1D congressional delegation, up from the current 4R-2D split. The bill was authored by Republican state Sen. Jay Morris and led in the House by state Rep. Beau Beaullieu.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, himself a Louisiana Republican, had publicly urged lawmakers not to surrender any Republican seats in the redraw, but legislators stopped at one new GOP seat rather than going for a 6R-0D map, citing the risk of making Johnson's and Majority Leader Steve Scalise's own districts competitive. The state had originally scheduled its House primaries for May 16 alongside the Senate primary, but Governor Jeff Landry suspended them after the Callais ruling. Roughly 40,000 votes already cast in those primaries were discarded. The new primary date has not yet been finalized, but is expected in mid-July. Voting rights groups are expected to challenge the new map in federal court, and litigation is likely to continue for years, but with primary season already underway across the country, this is almost certainly the map that governs the 2026 election. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
5 marketsLouisiana U.S. House Election History
Louisiana's House delegation has been Republican-dominated, but Voting Rights Act litigation forced the creation of a second majority-Black district for 2024, which Democrat Cleo Fields won, briefly making the delegation 4-2. That map became the vehicle for one of the most consequential rulings of the era.
In Louisiana v. Callais on April 29, 2026, the Supreme Court struck down the two-majority-Black-district map and gutted Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The legislature responded with Senate Bill 121, passed May 29, dropping back to a single majority-Black district held by Troy Carter and dismantling Fields's LA-6, an expected 5-1 Republican delegation. Speaker Mike Johnson urged an even more aggressive map, but legislators stopped at one new seat to avoid endangering their own. Litigation is expected to run for years, but the new map almost certainly governs 2026.
Louisiana Presidential Election Betting Odds
Louisiana hasn't been competitive at the presidential level in a generation, Trump won by 22 points in 2024, by 19 in 2020, by 20 in 2016. The state's 8 electoral votes are safe Republican. Cook PVI rates Louisiana R+11.
For 2028, no Louisiana politician currently has serious presidential profile, though Landry is mentioned in long-shot vice presidential markets. Cassidy was once viewed in some quarters as a potential moderate Republican option, but his May 16 primary loss likely ends any national speculation. House Speaker Mike Johnson, also a Louisiana Republican, is occasionally mentioned in long-shot 2028 markets but has not signaled interest.
Louisiana Presidential Election History
Louisiana was a reliably Democratic state through the mid-20th century and backed Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996, but it has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000 as its white, Catholic, and Cajun regions realigned. Even New Orleans's large Democratic vote has not been enough to offset the rest of the state.
Trump's margins were consistently wide, about 20 points in 2016, 19 in 2020, and 22 in 2024. Cook PVI rates the state R+11, and its 8 electoral votes are safely Republican. For 2028, no Louisiana figure carries serious presidential profile, though Governor Landry and House Speaker Mike Johnson surface in long-shot vice-presidential talk.
Louisiana Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Louisiana politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Other markets
Louisiana Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Louisiana's races, now reshaped by the May 16 primary and the new SB 121 map. The live contest is the June 27 Republican Senate runoff between Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and state Treasurer John Fleming, after incumbent Bill Cassidy was eliminated. There is no governor race this cycle, Jeff Landry is up in 2027.
Louisiana's jungle-primary system means the consequential contests are Republican-versus-Republican, so the Letlow-Fleming runoff is the number to watch, not a general election that stays Solid Republican. The House map fight also pushed those primaries to a later date. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Louisiana governor polls
No Louisiana governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Louisiana U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R) | June 23–24, 2026 | 770 (LV) | John Fleming 45% · Julia Letlow 48% · Undecided 7% |
| JMC Analytics (R) | June 21–22, 2026 | 600 (LV) | John Fleming 45% · Julia Letlow 40% · Undecided 15% |
| BDPC | June 15–16, 2026 | 600 (LV) | John Fleming 38% · Julia Letlow 40% · Undecided 22% |
| Kaplan Strategies (R) | May 24–26, 2026 | 850 (LV) | John Fleming 37% · Julia Letlow 52% · Undecided 10% |
| Harper Polling (R) | May 18–19, 2026 | 457 (LV) | John Fleming 35% · Julia Letlow 52% · Undecided 13% |
| JMC Analytics (R) | May 18–19, 2026 | 640 (LV) | John Fleming 44% · Julia Letlow 45% · Undecided 11% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 3 hours ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Louisiana a red state or a blue state?
Louisiana is a red state, one of the formerly Democratic Southern states that swung decisively Republican. Trump carried it by about 22 points in 2024, every statewide office is Republican, and Cook PVI rates it R+11 to R+12.
What happened to Bill Cassidy?
Cassidy, one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump after January 6, lost his May 16 primary, finishing third. Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and state Treasurer John Fleming advanced to a June 27 runoff. Cassidy is the first elected Republican senator to lose renomination since Richard Lugar in 2012.
Is there a Louisiana governor race in 2026?
No. Louisiana elects governors in odd years, so Republican Jeff Landry's term runs through 2027. The 2026 ballot is the open Senate seat and all six House seats under the new map.
What did Louisiana's new congressional map do?
After the Supreme Court's April 2026 Callais ruling gutted the Voting Rights Act, the legislature passed Senate Bill 121 on May 29, dropping from two majority-Black districts to one and dismantling Democrat Cleo Fields's LA-6. The expected result is a 5R-1D delegation, up from 4R-2D, though litigation is likely to continue for years.