2026 Election Tracker
Maryland Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Maryland 2026 election odds for Gov. Wes Moore's reelection bid plus the open MD-5 House primary after Steny Hoyer's retirement, with state history.
| Electoral votes | 10 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris 62.7% / Trump 34.5% (D+28.2 margin) |
| Current governor | Wes Moore (D), running for re-election |
| U.S. senators | Chris Van Hollen (D, next 2028), Angela Alsobrooks (D, next 2030) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor, all 8 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+14 |
Maryland's 2026 race is, on paper, a typical re-election year for a popular Democratic governor in a deep-blue state. Gov. Wes Moore is running for a second term. His approval has dipped slightly but remains in positive territory. Larry Hogan declined to run. The Republican field is weak. Moore should win comfortably. The more interesting story has played out behind the scenes: Moore spent six months trying to redistrict Maryland's congressional map to eliminate the state's lone Republican U.S. House seat, and state Senate President Bill Ferguson, also a Democrat, blocked him. The two are now publicly mending fences during Moore's primary campaign. No Senate race is on the ballot. The 8 House seats include one of the most-watched open primaries in the country in MD-5, where 22-term Rep. Steny Hoyer is retiring. These are just some of the Maryland races you will see Election Odds for on ElectionOdds.com.
Is Maryland a Red State or a Blue State?
Maryland is one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, with the second-highest concentration of registered Democrats after the District of Columbia. Kamala Harris carried Maryland by 28.7 points in 2024. Biden won it by 33.2 in 2020, Clinton by 26.4 in 2016, and Obama by 26.1 in 2012. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. Cook PVI rates Maryland D+13.
The downballot picture is Democratic at the federal level but has a tradition of electing moderate Republican governors. Democrats hold the governorship under Wes Moore, who won by 32.4 points in 2022, the largest Maryland gubernatorial margin in over 40 years. But Republican Larry Hogan held the governorship from 2015 to 2023, winning both his races by significant margins despite the state's overall Democratic identity. Hogan's brand of moderate, fiscally conservative, socially moderate Republicanism resembled the Massachusetts model. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats (Chris Van Hollen and Angela Alsobrooks, who defeated Hogan in the 2024 Senate race) and all 8 U.S. House seats.
Maryland's voting pattern is dominated by the Washington, D.C. suburbs and Baltimore. Montgomery County and Prince George's County, both inside the Washington Beltway, vote Democratic by enormous margins and contain roughly a third of the state's population combined. Baltimore City and Baltimore County also vote Democratic. The Eastern Shore (the counties on the Delmarva Peninsula) and Western Maryland (Garrett, Allegany, Washington counties) vote heavily Republican but are not large enough to compete with the Democratic concentrations.
The state's high concentration of federal workers, military families, and government contractors makes it one of the most government-dependent state economies in the country. The state's politics have been shaped by its proximity to Washington, its high education levels (Maryland has the highest median household income of any state), and its large African American population (roughly 30%, the highest among non-Southern states). The 2024 Hogan Senate loss to Alsobrooks ended the most prominent Republican career in modern Maryland politics. The state has 10 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Maryland become competitive? No, not at the presidential or congressional level. The state's structural Democratic advantages are too large. The Hogan era showed that a particular kind of moderate Republican can still win the governorship, but the broader Republican Party has not been competitive in federal Maryland races for two decades. Wes Moore is widely considered a potential 2028 or 2032 Democratic presidential candidate, which only reinforces the state's Democratic identity. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Maryland Governor Betting Odds
Wes Moore is running for a second term. He won 2022 by 32 points against Republican Dan Cox, the largest Maryland gubernatorial margin since 1990. His approval ratings have declined modestly through his first term, from the high 60s into the 50s, driven by frustration over affordability and a state budget deficit projected at $1.5 billion for the next fiscal year. He is widely viewed as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender.
The Republican primary is essentially a non-event. Former Gov. Larry Hogan, the only Maryland Republican with statewide brand recognition, declined to run in a January 2026 Baltimore Sun op-ed. State Senate Minority Leader Steve Hershey formed an exploratory committee but ultimately filed for state Senate re-election. Remaining GOP candidates: Dan Cox (2022 nominee who lost by 32), L.D. Burkindine, John Myrick, and others. Cox and Christopher Hale are described as the frontrunners by media outlets, though neither has substantial fundraising or statewide profile. An incumbent Democratic governor has not lost re-election in Maryland since 1950, 75 years. Moore is heavily favored. Cook rates the race Solid Democratic. Primary June 23, 2026. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Maryland Governor Election History
Maryland is one of the bluest states in the country, yet it has a striking tradition of electing Republican governors as a check on its Democratic legislature. Republican Bob Ehrlich won in 2002, the first GOP governor since Spiro Agnew, before Democrat Martin O'Malley beat him in 2006 and 2010. Republican Larry Hogan then won two terms beginning in 2015, leaving office in 2023 as one of the most popular governors in the country.
Democrat Wes Moore reclaimed the office in 2022, winning by 32 points over Trump-aligned Republican Dan Cox, the largest Maryland gubernatorial margin in decades, and becoming the state's first Black governor. He is favored for a second term in 2026 against a weak Republican field after Hogan declined to run, and no incumbent Democratic governor has lost re-election in Maryland since 1950. Moore is widely viewed as a 2028 presidential contender.
Maryland Senate Betting Odds
Neither Maryland Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (elected 2016, re-elected 2022) is next up in 2028. Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (elected 2024 to succeed Ben Cardin) is next up in 2030. Maryland has two Democratic women senators for the first time in state history.
Alsobrooks served as chair of Moore's Redistricting Advisory Commission (covered below), which positioned her as a state-level political player beyond her freshman senator status. Van Hollen has emerged as one of the Senate Democrats' more visible figures on Israel policy and federal workforce issues, with Maryland's significant federal employee population making him a regular national TV presence. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
Maryland U.S. Senate Election History
Maryland's Senate seats have been Democratic for decades, held for years by Barbara Mikulski, Paul Sarbanes, and Ben Cardin. The most recent test came in 2024, when popular former Republican Governor Larry Hogan ran for an open seat and still lost by double digits to Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, underscoring how hard federal races are for Maryland Republicans even with a strong candidate.
Neither seat is on the 2026 ballot, Chris Van Hollen is up in 2028 and Alsobrooks in 2030, and Maryland now has two Democratic women senators for the first time in its history. With no Senate race this cycle, the state's federal action runs through the governor's race and the House primaries.
Maryland House Betting Odds
Maryland has 8 House seats, split 7 Democrats to 1 Republican, Rep. Andy Harris (MD-1, Eastern Shore), who chairs the House Freedom Caucus. The 2026 cycle's central question for Maryland's delegation was whether Democrats would redraw the map mid-decade to flip Harris's seat. After six months of public fighting, the answer is no.
The redistricting fight: On November 4, 2025, Moore created a five-member Redistricting Advisory Commission chaired by Sen. Alsobrooks. The commission recommended a new map on January 20, 2026 by a 3-2 vote, targeting Harris's seat. The recommended map would have produced an 8-0 Democratic delegation. But state Senate President Bill Ferguson, a Democrat, publicly opposed the effort throughout. Ferguson argued that mid-cycle redistricting risked judicial intervention that could produce a worse map and compared aggressive gerrymandering to racial gerrymandering tactics. Ferguson controlled the state Senate, and the redistricting bill never received the votes to pass. A Moore-Ferguson endorsement deal reportedly collapsed in May 2026 after Moore perceived Ferguson as still unwilling to budge after the late-April U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act. Both men appeared at Moore's reelection campaign kickoff in Baltimore in early May, but the political relationship remains strained.
The result for 2026: Maryland's map stays 7D-1R. Harris is widely expected to win re-election in MD-1. The marquee Maryland House race is in MD-5, where 22-term Rep. Steny Hoyer is retiring. Twenty-three Democrats are running in the June 23 primary to succeed him. Hoyer endorsed Del. Adrian Boafo (D-Prince George's County), who also won endorsements from Moore and Alsobrooks. The MD-5 primary winner is essentially the next congressman given the district's heavy Democratic lean. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
8 marketsMaryland U.S. House Election History
Maryland's congressional map has long been one of the most Democratic-tilted in the country, a 7-1 delegation drawn by the Democratic legislature, with Republican Andy Harris's Eastern Shore-based MD-1 the lone GOP seat. The map has survived repeated gerrymandering challenges over the years, including a 2022 state court fight.
The 2026 cycle's big question was whether Democrats would redraw the map mid-decade to erase Harris's seat and reach 8-0. Governor Moore pushed hard, but fellow Democrat and state Senate President Bill Ferguson blocked it, warning that aggressive mid-cycle gerrymandering could backfire in court. The map stays 7-1, and the marquee race is the open MD-5 primary to succeed retiring 22-term Rep. Steny Hoyer, a 23-candidate Democratic field in which Hoyer endorsed Del. Adrian Boafo.
Maryland Presidential Election Betting Odds
Maryland has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. Harris won by 28.2 points in 2024, one of the largest Democratic margins in any state. Cook PVI rates Maryland at D+14, putting it among the safest Democratic states for presidential elections.
For 2028, Maryland's 10 electoral votes are safe regardless of nominee. The more interesting 2028 market question involving Maryland is Gov. Moore's status as a top-tier Democratic presidential contender. Moore is regularly ranked in the top 5 of 2028 Democratic primary markets alongside Newsom, Pritzker, Shapiro, and Whitmer. The size of his 2026 re-election margin will be a meaningful national signal heading into 2027 announcement season.
Maryland Presidential Election History
Maryland has been one of the most reliably Democratic states in presidential politics, voting Democratic in every election since 1992 by consistently large margins. Anchored by the heavily Democratic Washington suburbs of Montgomery and Prince George's counties and by Baltimore, the state has not been competitive at the presidential level in a generation.
The margins have been lopsided, from the mid-20s to Biden's 33-point win in 2020, with Harris carrying the state by about 28 points in 2024. Cook PVI rates it among the safest Democratic states, and the 10 electoral votes are never contested. Maryland's 2028 relevance is as the home of Governor Wes Moore, a top-tier Democratic presidential prospect, rather than as a battleground.
Maryland Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Maryland politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Maryland Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Maryland's races. In the governor's race, Democratic incumbent Wes Moore faces a weak Republican field led by 2022 nominee Dan Cox, with Moore heavily favored. The marquee House contest is the open MD-5 Democratic primary to succeed retiring Steny Hoyer, where Hoyer-endorsed Adrian Boafo leads a 23-candidate field.
Maryland rarely produces competitive federal polling given its deep-blue lean, so the number to watch is the size of Moore's margin, read nationally as a signal of his 2028 standing. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Maryland governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpinionWorks | October 7−10, 2025 | 928 (RV) | Wes Moore (D) 45% · Larry Hogan (R) 37% · Undecided 14% |
| Gonzales Research | December 27, 2024 − January 4, 2025 | 811 (RV) | Wes Moore (D) 52% · Larry Hogan (R) 38% · Undecided 10% |
| Gonzales Research | December 21, 2025 − January 6, 2026 | 808 (RV) | Wes Moore (D) 50% · Generic Republican 28% · Other 6% · Undecided 16% |
| University of Maryland, Baltimore County | October 21−25, 2025 | 757 (RV) | Wes Moore (D) 49% · Generic Republican 29% · Other 12% · Undecided 10% |
| OpinionWorks | October 7−10, 2025 | 928 (RV) | Wes Moore (D) 47% · Generic Republican 29% · Undecided 21% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 2 hours ago.
Maryland U.S. Senate polls
No Maryland U.S. Senate polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Maryland a red state or a blue state?
Maryland is one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, with the second-highest share of registered Democrats after D.C. Harris carried it by nearly 29 points in 2024 and Cook PVI rates it D+13, though it has a tradition of electing moderate Republican governors.
Is Wes Moore favored for re-election?
Yes, heavily. Moore won in 2022 by 32 points, faces a weak Republican field after Larry Hogan declined to run, and no incumbent Democratic governor has lost re-election in Maryland since 1950. Cook rates the race Solid Democratic.
Is there a U.S. Senate race in Maryland in 2026?
No. Both seats are held by Democrats and neither is up in 2026. Chris Van Hollen is next up in 2028 and Angela Alsobrooks in 2030, so the governor's race and the eight House seats are the focus.
Why didn't Maryland redraw its House map?
Governor Moore spent six months pushing to redraw the map to flip Republican Andy Harris's lone GOP seat and reach 8-0, but fellow Democrat and state Senate President Bill Ferguson blocked it, warning that mid-cycle gerrymandering could backfire in court. The map stays 7-1.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.