Maryland Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Maryland's 2026 race is, on paper, a typical re-election year for a popular Democratic governor in a deep-blue state. Gov. Wes Moore is running for a second term. His approval has dipped slightly but remains in positive territory. Larry Hogan declined to run. The Republican field is weak. Moore should win comfortably. The more interesting story has played out behind the scenes: Moore spent six months trying to redistrict Maryland's congressional map to eliminate the state's lone Republican U.S. House seat, and state Senate President Bill Ferguson — also a Democrat — blocked him. The two are now publicly mending fences during Moore's primary campaign. No Senate race is on the ballot. The 8 House seats include one of the most-watched open primaries in the country in MD-5, where 22-term Rep. Steny Hoyer is retiring. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Maryland governor betting odds

Wes Moore is running for a second term. He won 2022 by 32 points against Republican Dan Cox, the largest Maryland gubernatorial margin since 1990. His approval ratings have declined modestly through his first term — from the high 60s into the 50s — driven by frustration over affordability and a state budget deficit projected at $1.5 billion for the next fiscal year. He is widely viewed as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender.

The Republican primary is essentially a non-event. Former Gov. Larry Hogan — the only Maryland Republican with statewide brand recognition — declined to run in a January 2026 Baltimore Sun op-ed. State Senate Minority Leader Steve Hershey formed an exploratory committee but ultimately filed for state Senate re-election. Remaining GOP candidates: Dan Cox (2022 nominee who lost by 32), L.D. Burkindine, John Myrick, and others. Cox and Christopher Hale are described as the frontrunners by media outlets, though neither has substantial fundraising or statewide profile.

An incumbent Democratic governor has not lost re-election in Maryland since 1950 — 75 years. Moore is heavily favored. Cook rates the race Solid Democratic. Primary June 23, 2026.

Maryland presidential election betting odds

Maryland has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. Harris won by 28.2 points in 2024 — one of the largest Democratic margins in any state. Cook PVI rates Maryland at D+14, putting it among the safest Democratic states for presidential elections.

For 2028, Maryland's 10 electoral votes are safe regardless of nominee. The more interesting 2028 market question involving Maryland is Gov. Moore's status as a top-tier Democratic presidential contender. Moore is regularly ranked in the top 5 of 2028 Democratic primary markets alongside Newsom, Pritzker, Shapiro, and Whitmer. The size of his 2026 re-election margin will be a meaningful national signal heading into 2027 announcement season.

Maryland senate betting odds

Neither Maryland Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (elected 2016, re-elected 2022) is next up in 2028. Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (elected 2024 to succeed Ben Cardin) is next up in 2030. Maryland has two Democratic women senators for the first time in state history.

Alsobrooks served as chair of Moore's Redistricting Advisory Commission (covered below), which positioned her as a state-level political player beyond her freshman senator status. Van Hollen has emerged as one of the Senate Democrats' more visible figures on Israel policy and federal workforce issues, with Maryland's significant federal employee population making him a regular national TV presence.

Maryland house betting odds

Maryland has 8 House seats, split 7 Democrats to 1 Republican — Rep. Andy Harris (MD-1, Eastern Shore), who chairs the House Freedom Caucus. The 2026 cycle's central question for Maryland's delegation was whether Democrats would redraw the map mid-decade to flip Harris's seat. After six months of public fighting, the answer is no.

The redistricting fight: On November 4, 2025, Moore created a five-member Redistricting Advisory Commission chaired by Sen. Alsobrooks. The commission recommended a new map on January 20, 2026 by a 3-2 vote, targeting Harris's seat. The recommended map would have produced an 8-0 Democratic delegation. But state Senate President Bill Ferguson — a Democrat — publicly opposed the effort throughout. Ferguson argued that mid-cycle redistricting risked judicial intervention that could produce a worse map and compared aggressive gerrymandering to racial gerrymandering tactics. Ferguson controlled the state Senate, and the redistricting bill never received the votes to pass.

A Moore-Ferguson endorsement deal reportedly collapsed in May 2026 after Moore perceived Ferguson as still unwilling to budge after the late-April U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act. Both men appeared at Moore's reelection campaign kickoff in Baltimore in early May, but the political relationship remains strained.

The result for 2026: Maryland's map stays 7D-1R. Harris is widely expected to win re-election in MD-1.

The marquee Maryland House race is in MD-5, where 22-term Rep. Steny Hoyer is retiring. Twenty-three Democrats are running in the June 23 primary to succeed him. Hoyer endorsed Del. Adrian Boafo (D-Prince George's County), who also won endorsements from Moore and Alsobrooks. The MD-5 primary winner is essentially the next congressman given the district's heavy Democratic lean.