Missouri Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Missouri's 2026 federal ballot has no statewide races. The governor, both senators, and the rest of the state's executive offices were either just elected or won't be on the ballot until 2028. What remains is a redistricting fight that the Missouri Supreme Court resolved one day ago, on May 12, 2026 — and the answer was that the new Republican map stays in effect for the August primary, despite a referendum campaign that collected more than 300,000 signatures. The new map carves up Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based 5th District, the seat Cleaver has held since 2005, and is designed to flip the Missouri delegation from 6R-2D to 7R-1D. All eight House seats are on the ballot. The referendum may still appear in November. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Missouri governor betting odds

No governor race in 2026. The next Missouri gubernatorial election is in 2028.

Mike Kehoe was elected governor in November 2024 with 60% of the vote, succeeding term-limited Republican Mike Parson. Kehoe previously served as Lt. Governor from 2018 to 2025 and as a state senator before that. His current term runs through January 2029. Kehoe became central to the redistricting story when he called the August 2025 special session that produced the new map.

Missouri presidential election betting odds

Missouri has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000 — ending its decades-long status as one of America's premier bellwether states. Trump won Missouri by 18.4 points in 2024, by 15 in 2020, and by 18 in 2016. The state is now solidly Republican and rated R+11 by Cook.

For 2028, Missouri's 10 electoral votes are safe Republican. Sen. Josh Hawley, who has been a leading Trump ally in the Senate, appears occasionally in 2028 Republican vice presidential markets. He has not signaled interest in higher office.

Missouri senate betting odds

Neither Missouri Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Sen. Eric Schmitt (elected 2022) is next up in 2028. Sen. Josh Hawley (elected 2018, re-elected 2024) is next up in 2030.

Hawley's role in the redistricting fight is the more notable Missouri Senate story in 2026. Hawley publicly opposed the legal arguments the state used to keep the new map in effect after the People Not Politicians referendum group submitted 300,000 signatures. Hawley argued in court filings that allowing a law to take effect while a referendum is pending would "destroy the referendum process" — a stance that put him at odds with the Republican governor and state legislative leaders. The Missouri Supreme Court ruled May 12, 2026 against Hawley's position.

Missouri house betting odds

This is the entire 2026 Missouri story. The new "Missouri First Map" was signed September 28, 2025 after a special session called by Gov. Kehoe at Trump's direct request. The map targets the 5th Congressional District held by Democrat Emanuel Cleaver of Kansas City. Cleaver, the city's first Black mayor and a U.S. Representative since 2005, saw his Kansas City district carved up: Black-majority neighborhoods in Kansas City were redistributed into surrounding Republican districts, while heavily Republican rural areas stretching east toward Boone County were added to what remains of the 5th. The new 5th would stretch 180 miles southeast from Cleaver's home church in Kansas City to a rural United Methodist church in Vienna, Missouri.

The map is designed to flip Missouri's House delegation from 6R-2D to 7R-1D. The remaining Democratic seat is MO-1 in St. Louis, held by Rep. Wesley Bell — drawn under Voting Rights Act compliance rules.

The referendum fight: Opponents organized as People Not Politicians and submitted 300,000 signatures on December 9, 2025 — exceeding the threshold required to trigger a veto referendum. Under the Missouri Constitution, laws subject to referendum are suspended until voters approve them. The new map's effective date was December 11, 2025. The legal question was whether signature submission alone is enough to suspend the law, or whether the Secretary of State must first certify the signatures.

Multiple court rulings went against the referendum campaign. On March 24, 2026, the Missouri Supreme Court ruled that Kehoe had authority to call the special session and that the legislature could revise districts mid-decade. A March 27 trial court ruling kept the map in effect during signature verification. And yesterday, May 12, 2026, the Missouri Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the new map will be used in the August 4, 2026 primary — even with the referendum signatures still being verified. The court reasoned that it was uncertain whether the referendum would qualify for the ballot.

If the referendum does qualify, it appears on the November 2026 ballot — running alongside the elections that were already conducted under the new map. Polling has been close: a February SLU/YouGov poll found 44% of Missourians oppose the map, 41% support it. The pro-referendum campaign has raised $6.3 million; the pro-map PAC Put Missouri First has raised $3.1 million.

Cleaver has announced he will run regardless of district shape. The August 4 primary now determines whether Cleaver — or whoever wins the new 5th — represents the district in 2027.