2026 Election Tracker
Montana Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Montana 2026 election odds for the open Senate seat after Steve Daines retired, Trump-endorsed Kurt Alme's run, plus the UM independent challenger.
| Electoral votes | 4 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 58% / Harris 38% (R+20 margin) |
| Current governor | Greg Gianforte (R), re-elected 2024 (next 2028) |
| U.S. senators | Steve Daines (R, retiring), Tim Sheehy (R, next 2030) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | U.S. Senate (open), both 2 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | R+11 |
The biggest political shock in Montana in two decades happened on March 4, 2026, at about 4:55 p.m., five minutes before the candidate filing deadline. Republican Sen. Steve Daines, who had been preparing for re-election and had no apparent reason to step aside, withdrew. Within hours, Donald Trump endorsed former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme. Within days, Gov. Greg Gianforte and Sen. Tim Sheehy had endorsed Alme too. The Montana GOP unified around a candidate nobody outside the state had heard of three days before. On June 2, Alme won the Republican primary easily, taking around 77% of the vote in a race the Associated Press called shortly after polls closed. He will face Democrat Alani Bankhead, who won her party's primary, and independent Seth Bodnar, the University of Montana president, who has secured a spot on the general election ballot to make it a three-way contest. The 2026 Senate race, rated Lean Republican, is the story. The governor's office stays Republican until at least 2028 with Gianforte's term, and both U.S. House seats are safely Republican. No matter which Montana Election Odds you want to see, we will have them below on ElectionOdds.com.
Is Montana a Red State or a Blue State?
Montana is a red state with a long tradition of split-ticket voting and occasional Democratic statewide wins. Trump carried Montana by 20.4 points in 2024, by 16.4 in 2020, and by 20.4 in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1996, when Bill Clinton lost it by 12 points in his reelection. Cook PVI rates Montana R+11. Montana's voting pattern has shifted decisively Republican over the past decade, but the state's tradition of supporting Democratic candidates downballot persisted longer than in most Mountain West neighbors.
The downballot picture is now Republican across the board after the 2024 cycle. Republicans hold the governorship under Greg Gianforte, who won reelection in 2024 by 25 points. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (Steve Daines and Tim Sheehy, who defeated Democratic incumbent Jon Tester in 2024). Tester's defeat ended Democratic Senate representation from Montana for the first time since 2006 and was one of the most important Republican Senate pickups of the cycle. Republicans hold both U.S. House seats and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Montana's last Democratic governor (Steve Bullock) left office in 2021.
Montana's voting pattern reflects its mountain-state geography and unique political culture. Gallatin County (Bozeman) and Missoula County have shifted Democratic and are the most consistent Democratic counties in the state. Yellowstone County (Billings) and Cascade County (Great Falls) are competitive. The rest of the state, particularly the eastern plains counties and the agricultural counties, votes Republican by overwhelming margins. The state's Native American reservations, particularly the Crow and Northern Cheyenne in the southeast and the Blackfeet and Flathead in the west, vote heavily Democratic but are not populous enough to influence statewide results.
The state's politics have been shaped by its libertarian streak, its strong organized-labor tradition in mining and ranching, and the recent in-migration of wealthy out-of-staters that has shifted the cultural geography of Bozeman and the Flathead Valley. The 2024 Tester loss was significant: he was the last Senate Democrat in a state Trump carried by more than 10 points, and his defeat suggests the ticket-splitting tradition that long shaped Montana politics has weakened. Montana has 4 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Montana become competitive again? Possibly at the state level, but probably not at the presidential or U.S. Senate level. The state's working-class realignment is real, but the in-migration to Bozeman and Missoula continues to grow the Democratic vote share in those counties. A Democratic gubernatorial win in a favorable cycle is plausible. A Democratic Senate win or presidential win is much less so. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Montana Governor Betting Odds
Re-elected in 2024 by 21 points over Democrat Ryan Busse, Greg Gianforte is now serving his second and final term under Montana's two-term constitutional limit. The former tech entrepreneur and U.S. Representative won the governorship in 2020 and is term-limited from running again in 2028.
The next Montana gubernatorial election is November 2028. Names being floated include U.S. Rep. Troy Downing (MT-2), Lt. Gov. Kristen Juras, AG Austin Knudsen, and others, but the 2028 field will not solidify until after the 2026 cycle. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Montana Governor Election History
Montana's governorship was a Democratic stronghold for most of this century even as the state voted Republican for president. After Republican Judy Martz's single term (2001-2005), Democrats Brian Schweitzer and Steve Bullock each served two full terms, with Bullock, the last Democratic governor, leaving in 2021.
Republican Greg Gianforte, a former tech entrepreneur and congressman, won the office in 2020 and was re-elected in 2024 by 21 points. He is now term-limited under Montana's two-term cap, so there is no 2026 governor's race; the next is in 2028, with Republicans like Troy Downing, Kristen Juras, and Austin Knudsen among those floated.
Montana Senate Betting Odds
The 2026 Senate seat went open in the most surprising fashion. Steve Daines, first elected to the Senate in 2014, re-elected in 2020 by 10 points over Steve Bullock, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee from 2023-2025, withdrew his candidacy at 4:55 p.m. on March 4, 2026, minutes before Montana's filing deadline. He gave no advance warning. Within hours, the Montana GOP unified behind former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme.
Republican primary (June 2, 2026): Kurt Alme won decisively, taking about 77% of the vote against Lee Calhoun and Charles Walking Child. Alme is a Great Falls native who served as Montana U.S. Attorney from 2017 to 2020 during Trump's first term and again from March 2025 to March 2026 in his second, a Harvard Law graduate whose work focused on Project Safe Neighborhoods, fentanyl, and cartel-related prosecution. He carried endorsements from Trump, Daines, Sheehy, and Gianforte, and the Associated Press called the primary for him minutes after polls closed.
Independent: Seth Bodnar, the president of the University of Montana, has secured a place on the general election ballot as an independent. Bodnar is a former Army officer and Rhodes Scholar with the kind of centrist independent profile that has won statewide in Montana before, the brand Jon Tester used to hold the seat through three terms before losing in 2024. On the Democratic side, Alani Bankhead won the June 2 primary over a smaller field. The general election is now a three-way race among Alme, Bankhead, and Bodnar. Cook moved the contest from Solid Republican to Lean Republican after Daines's withdrawal, and Bodnar's independent run is the variable that could compress the margin further. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Montana U.S. Senate Election History
Montana long resisted its presidential lean in Senate races, with Democrat Jon Tester winning three terms on a populist, agrarian brand before losing to Republican Tim Sheehy in 2024, ending Democratic Senate representation for the first time since 2006. Steve Daines won the other seat in 2014 and held it comfortably.
The 2026 race opened in dramatic fashion when Daines abruptly withdrew minutes before the filing deadline, and the GOP instantly unified behind Trump-endorsed former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who won the June 2 primary with about 77%. University of Montana President Seth Bodnar qualified for the ballot as an independent with the centrist profile that once won statewide, and Democrat Alani Bankhead won her party's nomination. Cook moved the race from Solid to Lean Republican after Daines's exit.
Montana House Betting Odds
Both Montana House seats stay Republican in 2026, but the western Montana race is at least nominally competitive. MT-1 (Ryan Zinke, western Montana including Missoula and Bozeman) is running for a third term. Zinke is the former Interior Secretary under Trump's first administration. The district is competitive (Trump won it by 7 in 2024) and Democrats have run credible challengers in recent cycles, though Zinke has held it by margins of 5-7 points.
MT-2 (Troy Downing, eastern Montana) is running for re-election to a second term. Downing is the former state auditor; the district covers rural eastern Montana including Billings and Great Falls and is safely Republican. No mid-decade redistricting in Montana. Primary June 2, 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
2 marketsMontana U.S. House Election History
Montana regained a second House seat after the 2020 census, splitting into a western MT-1 and an eastern MT-2. Both are held by Republicans, but the western district is the more competitive, reflecting the Democratic-trending growth of Missoula and Bozeman.
Ryan Zinke, the former Interior Secretary, has held MT-1 by single-digit margins and seeks a third term in a district Trump carried by 7 in 2024. Troy Downing holds the safely Republican, rural eastern MT-2 and seeks a second term. Montana did not pursue mid-decade redistricting.
Montana Presidential Election Betting Odds
Montana's presidential margins have been remarkably stable, 20 points for Trump in 2016, 16 in 2020, 20 in 2024. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1992, when Bill Clinton briefly won it during the Ross Perot disruption. Cook PVI rates Montana R+11. The 4 electoral votes are safe Republican for 2028.
Montana has not produced a national-profile politician since former Sen. Max Baucus, who served as Obama's ambassador to China. Sen. Tim Sheehy (elected 2024) is new and has not signaled presidential ambition.
Montana Presidential Election History
Montana has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1992, when Bill Clinton narrowly carried it amid the Ross Perot disruption. Its margins have been remarkably stable, hovering around 16 to 20 points for Trump across his three campaigns, the lone close modern result being Obama's near-miss in 2008.
Cook PVI rates the state R+11, and its 4 electoral votes are safely Republican. Montana has not produced a nationally prominent figure since former Senator Max Baucus became Obama's ambassador to China, and its newest senator, Tim Sheehy, has shown no presidential ambition.
Montana Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Montana politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Montana Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Montana's races, dominated by the open Senate seat that appeared overnight when Sen. Steve Daines withdrew minutes before the filing deadline. The GOP unified behind Trump-endorsed Kurt Alme, while University of Montana President Seth Bodnar pursues an independent run that could make it a three-way race. There is no governor race this cycle.
Montana stays Solid Republican statewide, but Cook moved the Senate race to Lean Republican after the Daines shock, so the number to watch is whether Bodnar's independent bid compresses the margin. The western MT-1 House seat is nominally competitive. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Montana governor polls
No Montana governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Montana U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 8–11, 2026 | 500 (LV) | Kurt Alme (R) 44% · Alani Bankhead (D) 25% · Seth Bodnar (I) 20% · Other 4% · Undecided 7% |
| Tavern Research (D) | May 13–18, 2026 | 607 (LV) | Kurt Alme (R) 50% · Seth Bodnar (I) 50% |
| Tavern Research (D) | May 13–18, 2026 | 607 (LV) | Kurt Alme (R) 46% · Reilly Neill (D) 24% · Seth Bodnar (I) 26% · Other 3% |
| Tavern Research (D) | May 13–18, 2026 | 607 (LV) | Kurt Alme (R) 56% · Generic Democrat 44% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | April 29 – May 7, 2026 | – (RV) | Kurt Alme 73% · Lee Calhoun 12% · Charles Walking Child 15% |
| Change Research (D) | March 17–20, 2026 | 616 (LV) | Kurt Alme (R) 37% · Seth Bodnar (I) 35% · Other 2% · Undecided 26% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Montana under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 17 minutes ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Montana a red state or a blue state?
Montana is a red state with a long tradition of split-ticket voting and occasional Democratic statewide wins. Trump carried it by about 20 points in 2024, and Cook PVI rates it R+11, though its downballot Democratic tradition persisted longer than in most Mountain West states.
Why is the Montana Senate seat open?
Republican Sen. Steve Daines unexpectedly withdrew at 4:55 p.m. on March 4, 2026, minutes before the filing deadline and with no advance warning. The GOP instantly unified behind Trump-endorsed former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, and Cook moved the race from Solid to Lean Republican.
Who is Seth Bodnar?
The University of Montana president, a former Army officer and Rhodes Scholar, who is gathering signatures for an independent Senate run. His centrist profile resembles the brand Jon Tester used to win three terms, and his bid is the variable that could compress the margin.
Are any Montana House seats competitive?
Both seats are Republican-held, but the western MT-1, held by former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, is nominally competitive, Trump won it by 7 in 2024 and Zinke has held it by 5-7 points. The eastern MT-2, held by Troy Downing, is safely Republican.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.