Montana Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

The biggest political shock in Montana in two decades happened on March 4, 2026, at about 4:55 p.m. — five minutes before the candidate filing deadline. Republican Sen. Steve Daines, who had been preparing for re-election and had no apparent reason to step aside, withdrew. Within hours, Donald Trump endorsed former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme. Within days, Gov. Greg Gianforte and Sen. Tim Sheehy had endorsed Alme too. The Montana GOP unified around a candidate nobody outside the state had heard of three days before. The 2026 Montana Senate race went from "Solid Republican incumbent" to "Lean Republican open seat" overnight — and an independent candidate, University of Montana President Seth Bodnar, is collecting signatures to make the general election a three-way contest. The governor's office stays Republican until at least 2028 (Gianforte's re-election). Two House seats both safely Republican. The Senate race is the story. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Montana governor betting odds

Re-elected in 2024 by 21 points over Democrat Ryan Busse, Greg Gianforte is now serving his second and final term under Montana's two-term constitutional limit. The former tech entrepreneur and U.S. Representative won the governorship in 2020 and is term-limited from running again in 2028.

The next Montana gubernatorial election is November 2028. Names being floated include U.S. Rep. Troy Downing (MT-2), Lt. Gov. Kristen Juras, AG Austin Knudsen, and others — but the 2028 field will not solidify until after the 2026 cycle.

Montana presidential election betting odds

Montana's presidential margins have been remarkably stable — 20 points for Trump in 2016, 16 in 2020, 20 in 2024. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1992, when Bill Clinton briefly won it during the Ross Perot disruption.

Cook PVI rates Montana R+11. The 4 electoral votes are safe Republican for 2028. Montana has not produced a national-profile politician since former Sen. Max Baucus, who served as Obama's ambassador to China. Sen. Tim Sheehy (elected 2024) is new and has not signaled presidential ambition.

Montana senate betting odds

The 2026 Senate seat went open in the most surprising fashion. Steve Daines — first elected to the Senate in 2014, re-elected in 2020 by 10 points over Steve Bullock, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee from 2023-2025 — withdrew his candidacy at 4:55 p.m. on March 4, 2026, minutes before Montana's filing deadline. He gave no advance warning. Within hours, the Montana GOP unified behind former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme.

Republican primary (June 2, 2026): Three candidates.

• Kurt Alme is a Great Falls native who served as Montana U.S. Attorney 2017-2020 (Trump first term) and again March 2025-March 2026 (Trump second term). Harvard Law graduate. Focus on Project Safe Neighborhoods, fentanyl, and cartel-related prosecution. He has endorsements from Trump, Daines, Sheehy, and Gianforte.
• Lee Calhoun and Charles Walking Child are on the ballot but considered minor candidates.

Independent: Seth Bodnar, the president of the University of Montana, is collecting signatures to appear on the general election ballot as an independent. Bodnar is a former Army officer and Rhodes Scholar, with the kind of centrist independent profile that has won statewide in Montana before (Jon Tester held the seat through three terms with that brand before losing in 2024).

Democratic primary — smaller field. State Sen. Reilly Neill (Livingston, former state representative), Michael Black Wolf (Fort Belknap Indian Community tribal historic preservation officer), and Michael Hummert (Helena).

Cook moved the race from Solid Republican to Lean Republican after Daines's withdrawal. Bodnar's independent run is the variable that could compress the margin further.

Montana house betting odds

Both Montana House seats stay Republican in 2026, but the western Montana race is at least nominally competitive. MT-1 (Ryan Zinke, western Montana including Missoula and Bozeman) is running for a third term. Zinke is the former Interior Secretary under Trump's first administration. The district is competitive (Trump won it by 7 in 2024) and Democrats have run credible challengers in recent cycles, though Zinke has held it by margins of 5-7 points.

MT-2 (Troy Downing, eastern Montana) is running for re-election to a second term. Downing is the former state auditor; the district covers rural eastern Montana including Billings and Great Falls and is safely Republican.

No mid-decade redistricting in Montana. Primary June 2, 2026.