2026 Election Tracker
North Carolina Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
North Carolina 2026 election odds for Roy Cooper vs Michael Whatley in the open Senate race, plus the new 14-seat House map targeting NC-1 in this swing state.
| Electoral votes | 16 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 51% / Harris 47.8% (R+3.2 margin) |
| Current governor | Josh Stein (D), next election 2028 |
| U.S. senators | Thom Tillis (R, retiring), Ted Budd (R, next 2028) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | U.S. Senate (open), all 14 U.S. House seats under new map |
| Cook PVI | R+3 |
North Carolina is the most reliable swing state in the country in the sense that nearly every statewide race comes down to a few points either way. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1976 except for 2008, but Democrats have held the governor's mansion for all but four of the past 32 years. The 2026 cycle is dominated by the U.S. Senate race to replace retiring Republican Thom Tillis, the highest-rated Democratic pickup opportunity in the entire country, with former two-term Governor Roy Cooper as the nominee against former RNC chair Michael Whatley. The race is expected to cost between $650 million and $800 million, potentially the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history. The state's congressional map has also been redrawn mid-decade, targeting NC-1 to add another Republican seat. See all the NC election information you need including the latest Election Odds on ElectionOdds.com for NC voters.
Is North Carolina a Red State or a Blue State?
North Carolina is a swing state with a Republican lean that has held longer than Democrats hoped. Trump carried North Carolina by 3.2 points in 2024, his fourth consecutive presidential win in the state. Trump won it by 1.3 in 2020 and 3.7 in 2016. Barack Obama narrowly carried North Carolina in 2008 by 0.4 points, the only Democratic presidential win in the state since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Cook PVI rates North Carolina R+3. The state has been decided by less than 4 points in five of the last six presidential elections.
The downballot picture is split. Democrats hold the governorship under Josh Stein, who won by 14.5 points in 2024 in a remarkable disconnect from the top of the ticket. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (Thom Tillis and Ted Budd), both chambers of the state legislature, and most statewide constitutional offices. The Republican legislative supermajority is partly the product of one of the country's most aggressive partisan gerrymanders, which the state's Republican-controlled Supreme Court allowed to stand after a 2023 reversal of a 2022 ruling.
North Carolina's voting pattern is built on the urban-rural divide. The Research Triangle (Wake, Durham, Orange counties), Charlotte (Mecklenburg County), and the Piedmont cities of Greensboro and Winston-Salem vote heavily Democratic. The Asheville area in the western mountains is also a Democratic island. The rest of the state, including most rural counties, the eastern Coastal Plain, and the central Piedmont, votes Republican by large margins. The state's African American population, roughly 22% of voters, is the largest of any state outside the Deep South and provides the Democratic base.
The state's recent political history has been shaped by its rapid growth. North Carolina has added roughly 1.2 million residents since 2010, much of it concentrated in the Charlotte and Research Triangle metros, both of which have moved sharply Democratic. The state's 2025 mid-decade redistricting locked in a 10R-4D U.S. House delegation, an improvement for Republicans from the 7R-7D split that existed under court-ordered maps in 2022. North Carolina has 16 electoral votes through 2030.
Will North Carolina stay competitive? Yes. The structural forces pulling the state toward Democrats (urban growth, suburban realignment) are pulling against the structural forces favoring Republicans (rural realignment, gerrymandering, working-class shifts). The 2026 U.S. Senate race for Tillis's seat is expected to be one of the most competitive in the country. Polymarket prices North Carolina as a 2028 tossup with a slight Republican advantage. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
North Carolina Governor Betting Odds
There is no North Carolina governor race in 2026. The next gubernatorial election is November 2028. Josh Stein was elected governor in 2024 with 62.7% of the vote against Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a 14.8-point margin in a state Trump simultaneously carried by 3.2 points, one of the largest split-ticket performances of the 2024 cycle. Stein became North Carolina's first Jewish governor and is eligible to seek a second term in 2028. His current term ends January 1, 2029.
For markets pricing North Carolina politics in 2026, Stein matters less as a candidate and more as a counterweight: as a Democrat in the executive office, he has limited ability to slow Republican legislative initiatives, North Carolina's governor has no veto over redistricting, but he provides national Democrats with a credible statewide voice in a state where they hold no Senate seats. Stein has generally avoided national speculation about 2028 presidential ambitions, focusing on Hurricane Helene recovery, Medicaid expansion implementation, and other state policy issues. Find all of the Governors elections here.
North Carolina Governor Election History
North Carolina is the rare swing state where Democrats have dominated the governorship even as the state leaned Republican for president. Democrats held the office for all but four of the past 32 years, through Jim Hunt, Mike Easley, and Bev Perdue, the lone Republican interruption being Pat McCrory's single term from 2013 to 2017. Roy Cooper then beat McCrory in 2016 and won re-election in 2020, both times while Trump carried the state.
That split-ticket tradition continued in 2024, when Democrat Josh Stein won the open race by nearly 15 points over scandal-plagued Republican Mark Robinson even as Trump carried the state by 3.2. There is no governor's race in 2026, Stein is not up until 2028, but the pattern explains why North Carolina Democrats remain competitive statewide despite the presidential lean, and why Cooper's record of never losing a statewide race makes him such a formidable 2026 Senate candidate.
North Carolina Senate Betting Odds
This is the single most important 2026 race for control of the U.S. Senate. The seat opened up because of an extraordinary sequence: Senator Thom Tillis voted against a procedural motion on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on June 28, 2025; President Trump threatened to back a primary challenger; Tillis announced his retirement the next day.
The Republican nominee is Michael Whatley, former RNC chair and former North Carolina GOP chair, who entered the race with Trump's immediate endorsement. He won the March 3 GOP primary with 64.6% over former Navy JAG attorney Don Brown. Lara Trump, the president's daughter-in-law, had considered the race in 2025 but declined, clearing the field for Whatley.
The Democratic nominee is Roy Cooper, the former two-term governor (2017-2025) who has never lost a statewide election in six attempts. He won the Democratic primary with 92% of the vote against minimal opposition. Cooper's track record includes wins in 2016 and 2020 in elections where Trump simultaneously carried North Carolina, making him one of the few Democrats in the country with demonstrated cross-pressure appeal in a state Trump has now won three times. The early Emerson poll (July 2025) put Cooper ahead 47-41, with Cooper's name recognition advantage being decisive, 51% of voters had a favorable view of him, against only 17% for Whatley. As of the most recent FEC filings, Cooper has raised $21.1 million and spent $6.8 million, while Whatley has raised $6.3 million and spent $3.7 million.
With both nominations now settled after the March 3 primary, the race is one of the most-traded markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, and forecasters generally rate it Lean Republican or Toss-Up depending on the outlet. An April 2026 Carolina Journal poll showed Cooper leading Whatley 48.9 percent to 41.1 percent, with Cooper carrying independents 52-32. Ted Budd, the state's other senator, is not on the 2026 ballot. His next election is 2028. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Senate primary
2 marketsNorth Carolina U.S. Senate Election History
North Carolina's Senate seats have been Republican-held in recent years but rarely by comfortable margins. Thom Tillis won narrow races in 2014 and 2020, and Ted Budd won the open 2022 seat by a few points, both reflecting the state's knife-edge partisanship. Democrats have repeatedly poured money into these races, including a record-shattering 2020 contest, without breaking through.
The 2026 race is their best opportunity in years. Tillis's abrupt retirement, announced a day after he crossed Trump on a key vote and drew a primary threat, opened the seat for former Governor Roy Cooper, who has never lost a statewide race. He faces Trump-backed former RNC chair Michael Whatley. Forecasters rate it between Lean Republican and Toss-Up, and with Cooper's name recognition and crossover record it is the single most important seat on the 2026 map for Senate control.
North Carolina House Betting Odds
North Carolina has 14 House seats, currently split 10 Republicans to 4 Democrats under the 2024 map. The Republican-controlled state legislature passed a new mid-decade congressional map in October 2025, designed to flip NC-1, held by Democrat Don Davis, the state's only true swing district, by moving Republican-leaning coastal counties (Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Hyde, and Pamlico) into the district. The new map is expected to shift the delegation from 10R-4D toward 11R-3D. North Carolina's governor has no veto power over redistricting.
A federal court panel upheld the new map on November 26, 2025, ruling across 57 pages of analysis that the redistricting was motivated by partisan rather than racial considerations. The Supreme Court's 2019 ruling in Rucho v. Common Cause established that partisan gerrymandering claims are not subject to federal court review, which constrained the available legal challenges. Don Davis filed to run anyway in the redrawn district.
The NC-1 Republican primary went to a runoff on May 12, 2026, after no candidate cleared the 30 percent threshold needed to win outright on March 3. Laurie Buckhout, the former acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy, won the runoff to secure the Republican nomination. She faces incumbent Democrat Don Davis in November, on a redrawn map specifically designed to make NC-1 winnable for the GOP. Davis won the seat in 2022 by 5 points and held it in 2024 by 1.6 points under the old map. Beyond NC-1, North Carolina's remaining districts are not considered competitive in 2026. Polymarket and Kalshi both price NC-1 as a competitive race, currently leaning Republican but well within reach for either party. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
12 marketsNorth Carolina U.S. House Election History
Few states have seen as much redistricting turmoil as North Carolina, where the congressional map has been redrawn repeatedly through a decade of litigation over racial and partisan gerrymandering. Court-ordered maps produced a 7-7 delegation in 2022, but after the Republican-controlled state Supreme Court reversed course in 2023, a new GOP map pushed the split to 10-4 for 2024.
The 2025 mid-decade redraw went further, redrawing NC-1, the eastern district held by Democrat Don Davis, to add Republican-leaning coastal counties and target an 11-3 delegation. A federal panel upheld it under the Supreme Court's Rucho precedent barring federal partisan-gerrymandering claims, and the governor has no veto over North Carolina maps. NC-1, where Davis faces Republican Laurie Buckhout, is the state's one competitive House race and a key piece of the national redistricting fight alongside Texas, Ohio, and Florida.
North Carolina Presidential Election Betting Odds
North Carolina is the closest of the traditional southern swing states. Trump's 3.2-point margin in 2024 is the smallest of any state Trump won that has 10 or more electoral votes. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980 except 2008, when Barack Obama narrowly carried it.
For 2028, prediction markets price North Carolina as a top-tier battleground, closer than Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin by recent margin. The state's demographics continue to shift Democratic in the urban areas around Raleigh, Charlotte, and Asheville, while exurban and rural areas remain solidly Republican. A normal political environment in 2028 likely puts North Carolina back in the closely-watched battleground category. If Roy Cooper wins the Senate race in 2026, he becomes an immediate top-tier 2028 Democratic presidential prospect given his statewide track record.
North Carolina Presidential Election History
North Carolina has been a Republican-leaning presidential state since 1980, with a single Democratic exception: Barack Obama's razor-thin 0.4-point win in 2008, the only Democratic presidential victory there since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Since then the margins have stayed remarkably tight, Romney by 2 in 2012, Trump by 3.7 in 2016, 1.3 in 2020, and 3.2 in 2024.
That consistency, decided by under 4 points in five of the last six elections, makes North Carolina the closest of the traditional Southern swing states and a genuine national battleground. Its 16 electoral votes are contested heavily by both parties, and the markets price it as a top-tier 2028 tossup, with the urban Triangle and Charlotte growth pulling against rural and exurban Republican strength.
North Carolina Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to North Carolina politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
North Carolina Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for North Carolina's races. The marquee number is the open Senate race between Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley, the top Democratic pickup opportunity in the country. You will also see polling for the redrawn NC-1, where Democrat Don Davis faces Republican Laurie Buckhout. There is no governor's race this cycle.
North Carolina is decided at the margins, so watch the Research Triangle and Charlotte suburbs against rural and Coastal Plain turnout. Early polling gave Cooper a high-single-digit lead built on his name recognition, with Whatley still largely undefined to voters. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
North Carolina governor polls
No North Carolina governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
North Carolina U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catawba College/YouGov | June 1–10, 2026 | 905 (LV) | Michael Whatley (R) 34% · Roy Cooper (D) 48% · Undecided 18% |
| 270toWin | April 29 – May 18, 2026 | Michael Whatley (R) 40.7% · Roy Cooper (D) 49.7% · Other/Undecided 9.6% | |
| RealClearPolitics | March 13 – May 11, 2026 | Michael Whatley (R) 42.2% · Roy Cooper (D) 49% · Other/Undecided 8.8% | |
| Harper Polling (R) | May 10–11, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Michael Whatley (R) 39% · Roy Cooper (D) 50% · Undecided 11% |
| Change Research (D) | May 4–8, 2026 | 957 (LV) | Michael Whatley (R) 42% · Roy Cooper (D) 49% · Undecided 9% |
| Opinion Diagnostics (R) | April 21–24, 2026 | 830 (V) | Michael Whatley (R) 41% · Roy Cooper (D) 50% · Undecided 9% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 16 minutes ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is North Carolina a red state or a blue state?
North Carolina is a swing state with a Republican lean. Trump carried it by 3.2 points in 2024, his fourth straight win there, and Cook PVI rates it R+3, but Democrats hold the governorship and the state has been decided by under 4 points in five of the last six presidential elections.
Is there a governor race in North Carolina in 2026?
No. Democrat Josh Stein won in 2024 and is not up again until 2028. The marquee 2026 race is the open U.S. Senate seat, plus all 14 House seats under the new map.
Why is the North Carolina Senate race so important?
It is the highest-rated Democratic pickup opportunity in the country. Republican Thom Tillis retired after crossing Trump, opening the seat for former Governor Roy Cooper, who has never lost a statewide race, against Trump-backed Michael Whatley. It could decide Senate control.
What changed with the North Carolina House map?
The Republican legislature redrew the map in October 2025 to target NC-1, held by Democrat Don Davis, moving Republican coastal counties into the district to push the delegation toward 11-3. A federal court upheld it, and the governor has no veto over redistricting in North Carolina.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.