2026 Election Tracker
South Carolina Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
South Carolina 2026 election odds for the open governor race after Henry McMaster, Lindsey Graham's Senate reelection, plus all 7 House races and history.
| Electoral votes | 9 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 58% / Harris 40% (R+18 margin) |
| Current governor | Henry McMaster (R), term-limited |
| U.S. senators | Lindsey Graham (R, on 2026 ballot), Tim Scott (R, next 2028) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor (open), U.S. Senate, all 7 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | R+8 |
Three big questions define the South Carolina 2026 ballot: who replaces Henry McMaster after a 10-year run as governor; whether Lindsey Graham survives whatever Republican primary materializes against him; and whether South Carolina joins Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee in mid-decade congressional redistricting following the late-April Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act. The first question has a crowded answer. The second has not yet produced a serious challenger. The third is being actively discussed but not yet acted on. Democrats have not won a statewide election in South Carolina since 2006, a 20-year streak that frames every race below. For 2028 presidential markets and House/Senate control coverage, ElectionOdds.com tracks the nationwide picture.
Is South Carolina a Red State or a Blue State?
South Carolina is a deeply red state with one major Democratic seat anchored in the African American population. Trump carried South Carolina by 17.9 points in 2024, by 11.7 in 2020, and by 14 in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980 except for Jimmy Carter's 1976 win. Cook PVI rates South Carolina R+8. South Carolina was once one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country during the Solid South era, but the state's white voters realigned to the Republican Party earlier and more decisively than in many other Southern states.
The downballot picture is overwhelmingly Republican. Republicans hold the governorship under Henry McMaster, who is term-limited in January 2027. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott, who is the Senate's only Black Republican), 6 of 7 U.S. House seats, and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The lone Democratic House seat is the 6th District held by Jim Clyburn, the longest-serving member of the state's House delegation and one of the most powerful Black members of Congress. The state's last Democratic governor (Jim Hodges) left office in 2003, and South Carolina has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1998.
South Carolina's voting pattern is shaped by the high racial polarization typical of Deep South states. The state is roughly 64% white and 27% Black. White South Carolinians vote Republican by overwhelming margins. Black South Carolinians vote Democratic by similar margins. Richland County (Columbia, anchored by the state capital and the University of South Carolina) and Charleston County are the largest Democratic-leaning counties. The 6th Congressional District, drawn to include Columbia and the Black Belt running through the state's middle, provides the Democratic congressional anchor. The rest of the state, including the Greenville-Spartanburg area in the upstate and the rural counties, votes Republican by large margins.
The state has been at the center of national political attention through its first-in-the-South presidential primaries, which played decisive roles in the 2020 and 2024 Democratic nomination contests. Joe Biden's 2020 South Carolina win, propelled by Clyburn's late endorsement, revived his campaign and won him the nomination. The state's South Carolina Senate also rejected its own House-passed mid-decade redistricting plan on May 26, 2026, in a vote that ended a Republican effort to target Clyburn's seat for 2026. South Carolina has 9 electoral votes through 2030.
Will South Carolina become competitive? Not at the presidential or U.S. Senate level. The state's racial polarization in voting and its high white Republican margins make any Democratic statewide path very narrow. The Clyburn district will continue to send a Democrat to Congress, but the broader state will continue to vote Republican. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
South Carolina Governor Betting Odds
The McMaster era ends in January 2027. He's served longer than any South Carolina governor in state history, first as Nikki Haley's lieutenant governor (succeeding to the office in 2017 when Haley became UN ambassador), then winning full terms in 2018 and 2022.
Six Republicans are running to succeed him; the primary is the de facto general election. AG Alan Wilson is the establishment-favored frontrunner. He's in his fourth term as the state's top legal officer, a military veteran, and announced his run in June 2025. His main rivals: U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace (SC-1, Charleston-area), who has cultivated a national profile and a contentious relationship with Speaker Mike Johnson; U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman (SC-5, Upstate), a wealthy real estate developer and Freedom Caucus member; Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette; state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (Upstate); and businessman Rom Reddy. Tim Scott took himself out by becoming NRSC chair in November 2024.
The Democratic primary has three candidates: state Rep. Jermaine Johnson, attorney Mullins McLeod, and businessman Billy Webster. The general election analysis is straightforward, Cook rates Solid Republican, the political fundamentals are unchanged, and no Democrat has won statewide in 20 years. Primary June 9, 2026, with a runoff June 23 if no candidate gets a majority. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Governor primary
South Carolina Governor Election History
South Carolina's governorship has been Republican for over two decades. Democrat Jim Hodges won a single term in 1998 but lost to Republican Mark Sanford in 2002, and Hodges remains the last Democrat to hold the office. Sanford served two terms, Nikki Haley won in 2010 and 2014, and Henry McMaster, who succeeded Haley when she became UN ambassador in 2017, won full terms in 2018 and 2022.
McMaster, now the longest-serving governor in state history, is term-limited, opening the 2026 race. Six Republicans are competing in what amounts to the de facto general election, led by establishment favorite Attorney General Alan Wilson against a field that includes Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman. With no Democrat having won statewide in 20 years, Cook rates the general election Solid Republican.
South Carolina Senate Betting Odds
Graham is seeking a fifth term, first elected in 2002, won in 2008, 2014, and 2020 (the last by 10 points over Jaime Harrison in a race Harrison out-raised him in by a record margin). Graham's relationship with Trump has fluctuated over a decade but settled into reliable alliance. He has no significant Republican primary challenge, Mark Sanford, the former governor and possible primary threat, is running for U.S. House instead.
The Democratic side is similarly thin. Pediatrician Annie Andrews, a Charleston-area medical professional who ran for SC-1 in 2022, is the most-mentioned candidate. South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998 (Fritz Hollings's final win) and has not won this specific seat since 1960. Cook rates Solid Republican. Primary June 9. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
South Carolina U.S. Senate Election History
South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Fritz Hollings's final win in 1998, and the seat Lindsey Graham holds has not gone Democratic since 1960. Both seats are now reliably Republican, held by Graham, first elected in 2002, and Tim Scott, the Senate's only Black Republican, appointed in 2013 and elected since.
Graham's 2020 race drew national money, including a record-shattering fundraising haul by Democrat Jaime Harrison, but Graham still won by 10 points, a reminder of the state's fundamentals. His 2026 bid for a fifth term has drawn no serious Republican primary challenger and only thin Democratic opposition, and Cook rates it Solid Republican.
South Carolina House Betting Odds
Seven House seats: six Republican, one Democrat (Jim Clyburn in SC-6, the Columbia-Charleston majority-Black district). The 2026 baseline expectation is that the partisan composition stays 6-1, but two factors complicate that.
First, SC-5 is open because Ralph Norman is running for governor. State Sen. Wes Climer leads the Republican field to succeed him. The Upstate district is solid Republican territory; a Democratic flip is not in the realistic conversation. Second, South Carolina is being mentioned in mid-decade redistricting discussions alongside Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee. The April 29, 2026 Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais removed most Voting Rights Act protections against racial gerrymandering, and South Carolina Republicans have been "considering" adding congressional redistricting to the legislative agenda. The state's only majority-minority district is Clyburn's SC-6, the obvious target of any new map. As of mid-May 2026, no special session has been called and no map has been proposed, but the calendar pressure (state primary already passed for some races) makes any 2026 redistricting timing-dependent.
Other SC House races: SC-1 (Nancy Mace's seat, now open because Mace is running for governor) is the most competitive on paper but still has a meaningful Republican lean. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
9 marketsSouth Carolina U.S. House Election History
South Carolina's seven-seat delegation has been 6-1 Republican, with the lone Democratic seat the Columbia-and-Charleston-anchored SC-6 held by Jim Clyburn since 1993, the state's only majority-Black district and long the focus of Voting Rights Act litigation, including a 2024 Supreme Court fight over the neighboring SC-1.
For 2026, SC-5 is open because Ralph Norman is running for governor, but it stays safely Republican, and Nancy Mace's SC-1 is open for the same reason and leans Republican. The bigger question is whether South Carolina joins the post-Callais redistricting wave to target Clyburn's seat; the state House passed a plan, but the state Senate rejected it on May 26, 2026, leaving the 6-1 map intact for the cycle.
South Carolina Presidential Election Betting Odds
Trump won South Carolina by 18 points in 2024, about three points wider than his 2020 margin. The state is no longer competitive at the presidential level and has voted Republican in every cycle since Carter's 1976 win, when his Georgia base extended into the Carolinas. Cook PVI rates South Carolina R+8. The 2028 markets price the state's 9 electoral votes as safe Republican.
Two South Carolinians are in the 2028 Republican presidential conversation: Sen. Tim Scott (who ran in 2024 and dropped out) and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (who finished second to Trump in the 2024 primary). Both appear in long-shot 2028 markets without recent indications of interest.
South Carolina Presidential Election History
South Carolina was a Democratic bastion during the Solid South era but realigned to the Republican Party earlier and more firmly than most Southern states. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980, the lone modern exception being Jimmy Carter's 1976 win, when the Georgian's regional appeal carried the Carolinas.
Trump's margins have been wide, 14 points in 2016, 11.7 in 2020, and 17.9 in 2024. Cook PVI rates the state R+8, and its 9 electoral votes are safely Republican. South Carolina's outsized national role comes not from the general election but from its first-in-the-South primaries, which proved decisive for Joe Biden in 2020 and remain pivotal in both parties' nominating calendars.
South Carolina Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to South Carolina politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
South Carolina Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for South Carolina's races. In the open governor's race, the de facto contest is the six-way Republican primary, where Attorney General Alan Wilson leads a field that includes Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman. In the Senate race, Republican Lindsey Graham seeks a fifth term against thin opposition.
South Carolina rarely produces competitive statewide general-election polling given its deep-red lean, so the meaningful numbers are inside the Republican primaries, especially whether the governor's race heads to a June 23 runoff. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
South Carolina governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion Diagnostics (R) | June 21–22, 2026 | 875 (LV) | Pamela Evette 23% · Alan Wilson 65% · Undecided 12% |
| JMC Analytics (R) | June 13–15, 2026 | 500 (LV) | Pamela Evette 28% · Alan Wilson 63% · Undecided 9% |
| National Public Affairs (R) | June 10–11, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Pamela Evette 36% · Alan Wilson 52% · Undecided 13% |
| Opinion Diagnostics (R) | June 10–11, 2026 | 625 (LV) | Pamela Evette 39% · Alan Wilson 46% · Undecided 15% |
| 270toWin | June 2–8, 2026 | Pamela Evette 18.7% · Nancy Mace 12.8% · Ralph Norman 13.5% · Rom Reddy 14.3% · Alan Wilson 18.8% · Other/ Undecided 21.9% | |
| RealClearPolitics | June 1–7, 2026 | Pamela Evette 20.2% · Nancy Mace 12.2% · Ralph Norman 14.2% · Rom Reddy 14.6% · Alan Wilson 18.2% · Other/ Undecided 20.6% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 9 minutes ago.
South Carolina U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R) | June 5–7, 2026 | 1,200 (LV) | Lindsey Graham 49% · Mark Lynch 29% · Other 11% · Undecided 11% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | June 5–6, 2026 | 800 (LV) | Lindsey Graham 51% · Mark Lynch 21% · Other 10% · Undecided 18% |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | June 3–4, 2026 | 388 (LV) | Lindsey Graham 51% · Mark Lynch 26% · Other 18% · Undecided 4% |
| The Citadel | May 21–31, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Lindsey Graham 46% · Mark Lynch 36% · Undecided 18% |
| The Citadel | May 21–31, 2026 | 427 (LV) | Annie Andrews 45% · Brandon Brown 14% · Kyle Freeman 5% · Undecided 36% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | May 21–24, 2026 | 1,125 (LV) | Lindsey Graham 52% · Mark Lynch 28% · Other 12% · Undecided 8% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in South Carolina under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 9 minutes ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is South Carolina a red state or a blue state?
South Carolina is a deeply red state, with Democratic strength concentrated in Jim Clyburn's majority-Black 6th District. Trump carried it by about 18 points in 2024, Republicans hold every statewide office and both Senate seats, and Cook PVI rates it R+8.
Who is favored in the South Carolina governor race?
With Henry McMaster term-limited, the six-way Republican primary is the de facto general election, and Attorney General Alan Wilson is the establishment-favored frontrunner over Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman. No Democrat has won statewide in 20 years, and Cook rates the general Solid Republican.
Is Lindsey Graham's Senate seat competitive?
No. Graham is seeking a fifth term with no serious Republican primary challenger and only thin Democratic opposition. South Carolina has not elected a Democratic senator since 1998, and Cook rates the race Solid Republican.
Will South Carolina redraw its House map?
Not for 2026. After the Supreme Court's April 2026 Callais ruling, Republicans discussed targeting Clyburn's 6th District, and the state House passed a plan, but the state Senate rejected it on May 26, 2026, leaving the 6-1 map intact for the cycle.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.