South Carolina Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Three big questions define the South Carolina 2026 ballot: who replaces Henry McMaster after a 10-year run as governor; whether Lindsey Graham survives whatever Republican primary materializes against him; and whether South Carolina joins Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee in mid-decade congressional redistricting following the late-April Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act. The first question has a crowded answer. The second has not yet produced a serious challenger. The third is being actively discussed but not yet acted on. Democrats have not won a statewide election in South Carolina since 2006 — a 20-year streak that frames every race below. For 2028 presidential markets and House/Senate control coverage, the homepage tracks the nationwide picture.

South Carolina governor betting odds

The McMaster era ends in January 2027. He's served longer than any South Carolina governor in state history — first as Nikki Haley's lieutenant governor (succeeding to the office in 2017 when Haley became UN ambassador), then winning full terms in 2018 and 2022. Six Republicans are running to succeed him; the primary is the de facto general election.

AG Alan Wilson is the establishment-favored frontrunner. He's in his fourth term as the state's top legal officer, a military veteran, and announced his run in June 2025. His main rivals: U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace (SC-1, Charleston-area), who has cultivated a national profile and a contentious relationship with Speaker Mike Johnson; U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman (SC-5, Upstate), a wealthy real estate developer and Freedom Caucus member; Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette; state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (Upstate); and businessman Rom Reddy. Tim Scott took himself out by becoming NRSC chair in November 2024.

The Democratic primary has three candidates: state Rep. Jermaine Johnson, attorney Mullins McLeod, and businessman Billy Webster. The general election analysis is straightforward — Cook rates Solid Republican, the political fundamentals are unchanged, and no Democrat has won statewide in 20 years. Primary June 9, 2026, with a runoff June 23 if no candidate gets a majority.

South Carolina presidential election betting odds

Trump won South Carolina by 18 points in 2024 — about three points wider than his 2020 margin. The state is no longer competitive at the presidential level and has voted Republican in every cycle since Carter's 1976 win, when his Georgia base extended into the Carolinas.

Cook PVI rates South Carolina R+8. The 2028 markets price the state's 9 electoral votes as safe Republican. Two South Carolinians are in the 2028 Republican presidential conversation: Sen. Tim Scott (who ran in 2024 and dropped out) and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (who finished second to Trump in the 2024 primary). Both appear in long-shot 2028 markets without recent indications of interest.

South Carolina senate betting odds

Graham is seeking a fifth term — first elected in 2002, won in 2008, 2014, and 2020 (the last by 10 points over Jaime Harrison in a race Harrison out-raised him in by a record margin). Graham's relationship with Trump has fluctuated over a decade but settled into reliable alliance. He has no significant Republican primary challenge — Mark Sanford, the former governor and possible primary threat, is running for U.S. House instead.

The Democratic side is similarly thin. Pediatrician Annie Andrews, a Charleston-area medical professional who ran for SC-1 in 2022, is the most-mentioned candidate. South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998 (Fritz Hollings's final win) and has not won this specific seat since 1960. Cook rates Solid Republican. Primary June 9.

South Carolina house betting odds

Seven House seats: six Republican, one Democrat (Jim Clyburn in SC-6, the Columbia-Charleston majority-Black district). The 2026 baseline expectation is that the partisan composition stays 6-1 — but two factors complicate that.

First, SC-5 is open because Ralph Norman is running for governor. State Sen. Wes Climer leads the Republican field to succeed him. The Upstate district is solid Republican territory; a Democratic flip is not in the realistic conversation.

Second, South Carolina is being mentioned in mid-decade redistricting discussions alongside Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee. The April 29, 2026 Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais removed most Voting Rights Act protections against racial gerrymandering, and South Carolina Republicans have been "considering" adding congressional redistricting to the legislative agenda. The state's only majority-minority district is Clyburn's SC-6 — the obvious target of any new map. As of mid-May 2026, no special session has been called and no map has been proposed, but the calendar pressure (state primary already passed for some races) makes any 2026 redistricting timing-dependent.

Other SC House races: SC-1 (Nancy Mace's seat, now open because Mace is running for governor) is the most competitive on paper but still has a meaningful Republican lean.