South Dakota Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

South Dakota looked like one of the quieter 2026 election stories in 2024. It isn’t anymore. Kristi Noem’s appointment as Secretary of Homeland Security under Donald Trump in January 2025 triggered a cascade: Lieutenant Governor Larry Rhoden ascended to the governor’s office, U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson decided to run for governor and gave up his at-large House seat, and the state’s attorney general Marty Jackley entered the race for Johnson’s old House seat. The state’s primary on June 2, 2026 is now competitive at the governor, House, and U.S. Senate levels — all on the Republican side. South Dakota gave Trump a 29-point win in 2024, and the November general elections are not expected to be close. The action is in the primary. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

South Dakota governor betting odds

This race is the headline of the cycle in South Dakota and the reason markets have priced it as a genuine contest rather than a coronation. Larry Rhoden, the incumbent, is an accidental governor — he succeeded Kristi Noem when she was confirmed as Secretary of Homeland Security in January 2025. Rhoden has spent the year on a statewide “Open for Opportunity” tour positioning himself for a full term, but observers in South Dakota Republican politics describe the race as functionally an open seat. South Dakota Searchlight editor Seth Tupper put it bluntly: people are treating this as open, not as an incumbent’s re-election.

That framing is reflected in the candidate field. Four major Republicans are running: Rhoden, U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson (who gave up his House seat to enter), Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden, and State House Speaker Jon Hansen. Johnson formally announced June 30, 2025, and has polled at or above Rhoden through the cycle. South Dakota uses a 35% threshold to win a Republican primary outright, with a runoff scheduled for July 28, 2026 if no candidate clears it on the first ballot. Both the open field and the runoff mechanic are factors the prediction markets are pricing in — a Rhoden first-round win, a Johnson first-round win, and a runoff between them are all live possibilities.

The Democratic primary features Dan Ahlers and Robert Arnold. South Dakota last elected a Democratic governor in 1974, and the markets price the general election as a Republican lock regardless of who wins the GOP primary.

South Dakota presidential election betting odds

South Dakota has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968 with one exception — the state went for native son George McGovern’s running mate in 1972. Donald Trump’s margins in the state have been some of his most consistent: 29.8 points in 2016, 26.2 points in 2020, and 29.2 points in 2024. There is no live market priced as a serious question about whether South Dakota will go Republican in 2028. The state’s three electoral votes are functionally part of the baseline floor for any Republican nominee.

The only South Dakota angle on the 2028 presidential market that draws meaningful trading is Kristi Noem’s name, which has surfaced in long-shot markets given her cabinet position and continuing national profile. She has not declared interest in a 2028 run and was widely speculated as a potential Trump running mate before the 2024 cycle resolved that question. Her path forward is more likely a future Senate run or a return to South Dakota, but the markets keep her on the board.

South Dakota senate betting odds

Mike Rounds is running for a third Senate term and has every advantage. He was elected with 65.7% of the vote in 2020, formally announced his re-election bid in January 2026, and received Trump’s endorsement in July 2025 after helping pass the administration’s package canceling previously approved funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. His Republican primary opponent, Rapid City businessman Justin McNeal, has not built the financial profile that would suggest a serious threat.

The Democratic side features Julian Beaudion, a Sioux Falls business owner and former state trooper. Independent Brian Bengs, who ran unsuccessfully as a Democrat against John Thune in 2022, is running again in 2026. Neither has been priced by markets as a competitive general election candidate against Rounds in a state Trump won by 29 points.

The primary is June 2, 2026 with the same 35% threshold and July 28 runoff structure as the governor race, though no runoff is expected on the Senate side.

John Thune, the state’s other senator and the current Senate Majority Leader, is not up in 2026. His next election is 2028.

South Dakota house betting odds

South Dakota has a single at-large U.S. House seat, and it is open in 2026 because Dusty Johnson is running for governor. This is the only at-large House seat in the country open this cycle, and the Republican primary is a genuine three-way race.

State Attorney General Marty Jackley is the polling leader. A June 2025 Guidant Polling and Strategy survey showed him at 48% support in the GOP primary, with State Senate Majority Leader Casey Crabtree and Lieutenant Governor Tony Venhuizen tied at 5%. Jackley filed with the FEC and has the strongest fundraising position, ending January 2026 with over $500,000 cash on hand. Crabtree announced his candidacy in mid-2025. James Bialota, a Rapid City real estate investor, rounds out the GOP field.

The Democratic primary is contested between Nicole Gronli, Billy Mawhiney, and Scott Schlagel. Independent Jack Pittman is also running. South Dakota’s at-large district is rated safe Republican by Cook Political Report — Johnson won his 2024 re-election by 44 points — and the general election is not expected to be competitive. The action is in the GOP primary, and the prediction markets reflect that.