2026 Election Tracker
South Dakota Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
South Dakota 2026 election odds for Gov. Larry Rhoden's first race after Noem went to DHS, Mike Rounds' Senate reelection, and the open at-large House contest.
| Electoral votes | 3 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 63% / Harris 34% (R+29 margin) |
| Current governor | Larry Rhoden (R), succeeded Kristi Noem on January 25, 2025 |
| U.S. senators | John Thune (R, Senate Majority Leader), Mike Rounds (R) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor, U.S. Senate (Rounds re-election), 1 at-large U.S. House seat (open) |
| Cook PVI | R+16 |
South Dakota looked like one of the quieter 2026 election stories in 2024. It isn't anymore. Kristi Noem's appointment as Secretary of Homeland Security under Donald Trump in January 2025 triggered a cascade: Lieutenant Governor Larry Rhoden ascended to the governor's office, U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson decided to run for governor and gave up his at-large House seat, and Attorney General Marty Jackley entered the race for Johnson's old House seat. The June 2, 2026 primary delivered a major result: no Republican cleared the 35% needed to win the governor's nomination outright, sending businessman Toby Doeden, who finished first, and Gov. Larry Rhoden, who finished second, to a July 28 runoff, while Dusty Johnson, an early polling leader, finished third and was eliminated. It is the first South Dakota gubernatorial primary to go to a runoff since the state adopted the 35% rule in 1985. Sen. Mike Rounds easily won his Senate primary, and Jackley won the Republican nomination for the open House seat. South Dakota gave Trump a 29-point win in 2024, and the November general elections are not expected to be close, so the action remains on the Republican side. This page on ElectionOdds.com covers all of the South Dakota races for the 2026 US elections.
Is South Dakota a Red State or a Blue State?
South Dakota is one of the reddest states in the country. Trump carried South Dakota by 29.4 points in 2024, by 26.2 in 2020, and by 29.8 in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968 except for Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide. Cook PVI rates South Dakota R+16. South Dakota's Republican identity has been remarkably consistent: the state has voted Republican for president in every cycle since 1964 and has had only two Democratic governors during that span.
The downballot picture is overwhelmingly Republican. Republicans hold the governorship under Larry Rhoden, who took office in 2025 after Kristi Noem became Secretary of Homeland Security. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (John Thune, who became Senate Majority Leader in January 2025, and Mike Rounds), the state's lone at-large U.S. House seat, and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. South Dakota Democrats hold no statewide elected office and have not since 2010. The state's last Democratic U.S. senator (Tim Johnson) left office in 2015, and its last Democratic governor (Harvey Wollman) left office in 1979.
South Dakota's voting pattern is shaped by its rural character, agricultural economy, and small population. The state has only 925,000 residents. Minnehaha County (Sioux Falls) and Pennington County (Rapid City) are the two largest counties and the most Democratic-leaning, but both still lean Republican in presidential elections. The state's Native American reservations, particularly on Pine Ridge and Rosebud in the southwest, provide the most consistently Democratic vote share, but the populations are not large enough to swing statewide elections. The rest of the state, particularly the rural agricultural counties, votes Republican by enormous margins.
The state's politics have been shaped by its agricultural economy, its strong Protestant religious culture, and the rise of John Thune as one of the most influential Republicans in the U.S. Senate. Thune's elevation to Senate Majority Leader in 2025 gave South Dakota outsized influence in national politics for a state with only 1 U.S. House seat. Kristi Noem's tenure as governor and subsequent move to the Trump cabinet also raised the state's profile. South Dakota has 3 electoral votes through 2030, the minimum.
Will South Dakota become competitive? Not on any realistic horizon. The state's Republican lock is among the firmest in the country. Democratic competitiveness would require dramatic and unlikely shifts in voter behavior across the agricultural counties. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
South Dakota Governor Betting Odds
This race is the headline of the cycle in South Dakota and the reason markets have priced it as a genuine contest rather than a coronation. Larry Rhoden, the incumbent, is an accidental governor, he succeeded Kristi Noem when she was confirmed as Secretary of Homeland Security in January 2025. Rhoden has spent the year on a statewide "Open for Opportunity" tour positioning himself for a full term, but observers in South Dakota Republican politics describe the race as functionally an open seat. South Dakota Searchlight editor Seth Tupper put it bluntly: people are treating this as open, not as an incumbent's re-election.
That framing was borne out on June 2. Four major Republicans ran: Rhoden, U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden, and State House Speaker Jon Hansen. Doeden, a self-funded political newcomer who branded himself as the strongest Trump ally in the field, finished first with about 31%, followed by Rhoden at about 25%, Johnson at about 23%, and Hansen at about 21%. Because no candidate reached the 35% threshold, Doeden and Rhoden advanced to a July 28 runoff, the first runoff in a South Dakota gubernatorial primary since the rule took effect in 1985. Johnson, who had given up his House seat to run and led several early polls, was eliminated and will leave Congress in January. The runoff sets up a contest between an outsider businessman and a sitting governor, and a Rhoden loss would make him the first sitting South Dakota governor to lose a primary.
On the Democratic side, former state senator Dan Ahlers ran unopposed and is the nominee, and he will face the winner of the July 28 Republican runoff in November. South Dakota last elected a Democratic governor in 1974, and the markets price the general election as a Republican lock regardless of which Republican advances. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
South Dakota Governor Election History
South Dakota's governorship has been Republican for nearly half a century. Democrat Harvey Wollman, who succeeded to the office in 1978 and left in 1979, remains the last Democrat to hold it. Republicans have held it continuously since, through Bill Janklow's record four terms, George Mickelson, Mike Rounds, Dennis Daugaard, Kristi Noem, and now Larry Rhoden.
Rhoden rose from lieutenant governor when Noem became Homeland Security Secretary in January 2025, and observers treated his 2026 bid for a full term as effectively an open-seat race. In the June 2 primary, no Republican reached the 35% threshold, so businessman Toby Doeden, who led with about 31%, and Rhoden, who took about 25%, advanced to a July 28 runoff, while Rep. Dusty Johnson finished third and was eliminated. It is the first South Dakota gubernatorial primary runoff since the rule was adopted in 1985, and the GOP contest remains the real race in a state that last elected a Democratic governor in 1974.
South Dakota Senate Betting Odds
Mike Rounds won his June 2 Republican primary comfortably, turning back a challenge from Rapid City businessman Justin McNeal to advance to a third Senate term. He was elected with 65.7% of the vote in 2020, formally announced his re-election bid in January 2026, and received Trump's endorsement in July 2025 after helping pass the administration's package canceling previously approved funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. He will face Democrat Julian Beaudion and independent Brian Bengs in November, a general election the markets see as safely Republican in a state Trump won by 29 points.
The Democratic side features Julian Beaudion, a Sioux Falls business owner and former state trooper. Independent Brian Bengs, who ran unsuccessfully as a Democrat against John Thune in 2022, is running again in 2026. Neither has been priced by markets as a competitive general election candidate against Rounds in a state Trump won by 29 points. The primary is June 2, 2026 with the same 35% threshold and July 28 runoff structure as the governor race, though no runoff is expected on the Senate side.
John Thune, the state's other senator and the current Senate Majority Leader, is not up in 2026. His next election is 2028. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
South Dakota U.S. Senate Election History
South Dakota's Senate seats have been Republican since Democrat Tim Johnson retired in 2015. John Thune has held one seat since 2005, when he unseated Democratic Leader Tom Daschle, and rose to Senate Majority Leader in 2025. Mike Rounds, a former two-term governor, won the other in 2014 and again in 2020.
Rounds won his 2026 primary easily with Trump's endorsement, and markets see no competitive general election in a state Trump won by 29 points. Thune's seat is not on the ballot until 2028. The state's outsized Senate influence, with the majority leader among its delegation, is notable for a state with a single House seat.
South Dakota House Betting Odds
South Dakota has a single at-large U.S. House seat, and it is open in 2026 because Dusty Johnson is running for governor. This is the only at-large House seat in the country open this cycle, and the Republican primary is a genuine three-way race. State Attorney General Marty Jackley is the polling leader. A June 2025 Guidant Polling and Strategy survey showed him at 48% support in the GOP primary, with State Senate Majority Leader Casey Crabtree and Lieutenant Governor Tony Venhuizen tied at 5%.
Jackley filed with the FEC and has the strongest fundraising position, ending January 2026 with over $500,000 cash on hand. Crabtree announced his candidacy in mid-2025. James Bialota, a Rapid City real estate investor, rounds out the GOP field. The Democratic primary is contested between Nicole Gronli, Billy Mawhiney, and Scott Schlagel. Independent Jack Pittman is also running.
South Dakota's at-large district is rated safe Republican by Cook Political Report, Johnson won his 2024 re-election by 44 points, and the general election is not expected to be competitive. The action is in the GOP primary, and the prediction markets reflect that. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
South Dakota U.S. House Election History
South Dakota has a single at-large House seat, safely Republican for years, last held by Dusty Johnson, who won re-election by 44 points in 2024. It is open in 2026 because Johnson is running for governor, the only at-large House seat in the country open this cycle.
The Republican primary is the decisive contest, with Attorney General Marty Jackley the clear polling and fundraising leader over a field that includes Casey Crabtree and others. Cook rates the seat safe Republican, the general election is not expected to be competitive, and South Dakota's single district means there is no redistricting to fight over.
South Dakota Presidential Election Betting Odds
South Dakota has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968 with one exception, the state went for native son George McGovern's running mate in 1972. Donald Trump's margins in the state have been some of his most consistent: 29.8 points in 2016, 26.2 points in 2020, and 29.2 points in 2024. There is no live market priced as a serious question about whether South Dakota will go Republican in 2028. The state's three electoral votes are functionally part of the baseline floor for any Republican nominee.
The only South Dakota angle on the 2028 presidential market that draws meaningful trading is Kristi Noem's name, which has surfaced in long-shot markets given her cabinet position and continuing national profile. She has not declared interest in a 2028 run and was widely speculated as a potential Trump running mate before the 2024 cycle resolved that question. Her path forward is more likely a future Senate run or a return to South Dakota, but the markets keep her on the board.
South Dakota Presidential Election History
South Dakota is among the most reliably Republican states in presidential politics, voting GOP in every election since 1968 except Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide, with even native son George McGovern unable to carry it in 1972. Trump's margins have been remarkably steady, around 26 to 30 points across his three campaigns.
Cook PVI rates the state R+16, and its 3 electoral votes, the minimum, are a baseline part of any Republican nominee's floor. The only 2028 angle drawing market interest is Kristi Noem, whose cabinet role and national profile keep her name on long-shot boards, though she has not declared any presidential intent.
South Dakota Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to South Dakota politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
South Dakota Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for South Dakota's races, all of them decided in the June 2 Republican primary after Kristi Noem's move to Homeland Security reshuffled the cycle. Acting Gov. Larry Rhoden faces a four-way primary including Rep. Dusty Johnson, Sen. Mike Rounds seeks a third term, and the open at-large House seat draws a three-way GOP race led by Marty Jackley.
With the state R+16 and Trump winning by 29 points, no general election is expected to be close, so the numbers that matter are the GOP primary margins, including whether anyone clears the 35 percent threshold to avoid a July runoff. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
South Dakota governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | May 26–27 2026 | 400 (LV) | Toby Doeden 24% · Jon Hansen 13% · Dusty Johnson 27% · Larry Rhoden 32% · Undecided 3% |
| Meeting Street Insights (R) | May 18–20, 2026 | 450 (LV) | Toby Doeden 22% · Jon Hansen 21% · Dusty Johnson 19% · Larry Rhoden 23% · Undecided 15% |
| Emerson College | May 18–19, 2026 | 432 (LV) | Toby Doeden 26% · Jon Hansen 16% · Dusty Johnson 23% · Larry Rhoden 19% · Undecided 16% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | April 7–11, 2026 | 500 (RV) | Toby Doeden 17% · Jon Hansen 18% · Dusty Johnson 34% · Larry Rhoden 17% · Undecided 14% |
| Emerson College | March 7–9, 2026 | 413 (LV) | Toby Doeden 18% · Jon Hansen 14% · Dusty Johnson 28% · Larry Rhoden 17% · Undecided 23% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | March 2–5, 2026 | 400 (LV) | Toby Doeden 16% · Jon Hansen 10% · Dusty Johnson 33% · Larry Rhoden 28% · Undecided 12% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 11 minutes ago.
South Dakota U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (I) | May 29–30, 2026 | 726 (RV) | Mike Rounds (R) 43% · Julian Beaudion (D) 18% · Brian Bengs (I) 23% · Undecided 16% |
| Public Policy Polling (I) | May 29–30, 2026 | 726 (RV) | Mike Rounds (R) 56% · Julian Beaudion (D) 31% · Undecided 13% |
| Public Policy Polling (I) | May 29–30, 2026 | 726 (RV) | Mike Rounds (R) 44% · Brian Bengs (I) 40% · Undecided 16% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | April 7–11, 2026 | 500 (RV) | Mike Rounds 66% · Justin McNeal 18% · Undecided 20% |
| Public Policy Polling (I) | February 17–18, 2026 | 685 (RV) | Mike Rounds (R) 49% · Julian Beaudion (D) 32% · Undecided 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (I) | February 17–18, 2026 | 685 (RV) | Mike Rounds (R) 47% · Brian Bengs (I) 35% · Undecided 19% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in South Dakota under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 11 minutes ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is South Dakota a red state or a blue state?
South Dakota is one of the reddest states in the country. Trump carried it by about 29 points in 2024, Republicans hold every statewide and federal office, and Cook PVI rates it R+16. It last elected a Democratic governor in the 1970s.
Why is the South Dakota governor race competitive?
Larry Rhoden became governor when Kristi Noem joined the Trump cabinet in 2025, and observers treat his 2026 bid as effectively open. He faces a four-way Republican primary including Rep. Dusty Johnson, who has polled at or above him, with a possible July runoff under the state's 35 percent threshold.
Is Mike Rounds favored for re-election?
Yes, overwhelmingly. Rounds won by 65.7% in 2020, has Trump's endorsement, and faces only token primary opposition. In a state Trump won by 29 points, markets see no competitive general election. Cook rates it safe Republican.
Why is the South Dakota House seat open?
Because Republican Dusty Johnson gave up the at-large seat to run for governor, the only at-large House seat in the country open this cycle. Attorney General Marty Jackley leads the decisive Republican primary; the seat is rated safe Republican.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.