2026 Election Tracker
Vermont Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Vermont 2026 election odds for Phil Scott's bid for a sixth two-year term against Amanda Janoo, Becca Balint's at-large House run, and Vermont voting history.
| Electoral votes | 3 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris 64% / Trump 32% (D+32 margin) |
| Current governor | Phil Scott (R), running for re-election (2-year terms) |
| U.S. senators | Bernie Sanders (I, next 2030), Peter Welch (D, next 2028) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor, 1 at-large U.S. House seat |
| Cook PVI | D+15 |
Vermont occupies a unique position in American politics: Harris won the state by 32 points in 2024, Bernie Sanders has held one Senate seat since 2007 as an independent socialist, and Republican Phil Scott has been governor since 2017, winning re-election every two years (Vermont has 2-year gubernatorial terms) with margins that have never dropped below 20 points. Scott is seeking a sixth term in 2026 against Democrat Amanda Janoo. The state's other federal officials are Sen. Peter Welch (D, won 2022 to replace Patrick Leahy), Sanders (next up 2030), and U.S. Rep. Becca Balint (D, the state's first woman and first openly LGBTQ representative). Of those three, only Balint is on the 2026 ballot. The Vermont 2026 ballot is, in short, governed by the same anomaly that has defined Vermont politics for a decade: an extremely liberal electorate that votes for a Republican governor because they like him personally. The Vermont races for the 2026 midterms are all covered here on ElectionOdds.com, and you can find other 2026 election odds here.
Is Vermont a Red State or a Blue State?
Vermont is one of the bluest states in the country at the presidential level, but with a long tradition of electing Republican governors. Kamala Harris carried Vermont by 31.5 points in 2024, one of her largest state margins. Biden won it by 35.5 in 2020, Clinton by 26.4 in 2016, and Obama by 35.6 in 2012. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. Cook PVI rates Vermont D+15. Until the mid-20th century, Vermont was so reliably Republican that it once went over a century without voting Democratic for president.
The downballot picture is split in an unusual way. Republican Phil Scott has held the governorship since 2017 and won his 2024 reelection with 73% of the vote, the largest gubernatorial margin in the country. Scott is one of the most popular Republican governors in the country in a state that votes Democratic by enormous margins for president. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats (Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with Democrats as an independent, and Peter Welch) and the state's lone U.S. House seat. Democrats hold both chambers of the state legislature with supermajorities. The state's Republican-governor tradition is the only thing keeping Republicans relevant in Vermont politics.
Vermont's voting pattern is shaped by its small size, rural character, and unusual political culture. The state has only 645,000 residents, the smallest in the country except for Wyoming. Chittenden County (Burlington) is the largest county and votes heavily Democratic, anchored by the University of Vermont and a young, progressive in-migrant population. The rest of the state ranges from competitive to strongly Democratic, with the most Republican areas in the Northeast Kingdom along the Canadian border. There is no urban Democratic concentration the way there is in most blue states.
The state's politics have been shaped by its Yankee Republican history, its 1960s and 1970s in-migration of progressives, and its small size that allows for intimate, retail-style politics. Vermont was the first state to legalize civil unions for same-sex couples (2000) and the first to legalize same-sex marriage by legislative action (2009). It is one of two states with no legal limit on how long a fetus can be aborted. Bernie Sanders has been the most prominent national figure from Vermont for two decades. The state has 3 electoral votes through 2030, the minimum.
Will Vermont become competitive? No, not at the presidential level. The state's progressive identity and demographic profile make it one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country. At the state level, Phil Scott's brand of moderate Republicanism could continue to produce gubernatorial wins as long as he is on the ballot, but the Republican Party's ability to win other statewide races is essentially nonexistent. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Vermont Governor Betting Odds
Vermont and New Hampshire are the only two states with 2-year gubernatorial terms. Phil Scott, the former state senator and lieutenant governor, won his first gubernatorial term in 2016 and has been re-elected every two years since. His 2024 re-election margin: 47 points over Democrat Esther Charlestin. He has been the most popular sitting governor in the country at multiple points during his tenure.
Scott's political identity: a Republican who routinely breaks with Trump and the national party, openly endorsed Joe Biden for re-election in 2024, vetoes Democratic legislative priorities while signing many of them, governs from the moderate center of a state whose electorate is anything but moderate. He is the only Republican governor in the entire Northeast.
Republican primary: Scott is uncontested. Democratic primary (August 11, 2026): Amanda Janoo is the announced Democratic candidate. Vermont Democrats have nominated a series of challengers against Scott, each has lost by historically large margins. General election: Scott is essentially unbeatable. Cook rates Solid Republican for the governor's race despite Vermont being the most Democratic state in the country at the presidential level. The split has held through five consecutive cycles. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Vermont Governor Election History
Vermont is one of only two states, with New Hampshire, that elects its governor to two-year terms, and the office has changed partisan hands nearly every time it has come open since the 1960s. Democrat Howard Dean held it through 2003, Republican Jim Douglas through 2011, and Democrat Peter Shumlin through 2017, the last Democrat to hold it.
Republican Phil Scott has held the office since 2017, winning re-election every two years by margins never below 20 points, including 47 points in 2024, and ranking among the most popular governors in the country. He routinely breaks with Trump and even endorsed Joe Biden in 2024. Scott is seeking a sixth term against Democrat Amanda Janoo, and Cook rates the race Solid Republican despite Vermont's deep-blue presidential lean.
Vermont Senate Betting Odds
Bernie Sanders and Peter Welch both have terms running past 2026. Sanders (I, caucuses with Democrats), in the Senate since 2007, is next up in 2030. He won 2024 by 30 points over Republican Gerald Malloy. Welch (D), the former U.S. Representative who won the seat after Patrick Leahy's 2022 retirement, is next up in 2028. He won 2022 by 28 points.
The 2030 Sanders seat is the long-range market generating speculation. Sanders has not announced retirement plans, but at 89 he would be the oldest senator ever elected to a new term. U.S. Rep. Becca Balint is at the top of nearly every potential successor list, having been endorsed by Sanders in her 2022 House primary and built her political brand within the Sanders movement. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
Vermont U.S. Senate Election History
Vermont's Senate seats are held by independent Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with Democrats, and Democrat Peter Welch. Sanders, in the Senate since 2007, succeeded Jim Jeffords and has won by overwhelming margins; Welch won the other seat in 2022 to succeed the retiring Patrick Leahy, who had held it for nearly half a century.
Neither seat is on the 2026 ballot, Welch is up in 2028 and Sanders in 2030. The long-range speculation centers on whether Sanders, who would be the oldest senator ever elected to a new term at 89, runs again, with Rep. Becca Balint widely seen as his most likely successor.
Vermont House Betting Odds
Becca Balint is the first woman and the first openly LGBTQ member of Congress from Vermont. Elected 2022 by 24 points to succeed Welch (who became senator), she is running for re-election. She defeated then-Lt. Gov. Molly Gray in the 2022 Democratic primary with Sanders's endorsement.
Cook rates the seat "should cruise to reelection." No serious Republican challenger has emerged. Vermont has not sent a Republican to the U.S. House since Peter Smith lost the seat in 1990 to socialist independent Bernie Sanders, beginning Sanders's congressional career. No mid-decade redistricting (Vermont has only one at-large seat). Primary August 11, 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
Vermont U.S. House Election History
Vermont has a single at-large House seat that has not gone Republican since 1990, when Peter Smith lost it to socialist independent Bernie Sanders, launching Sanders's congressional career. The seat passed to Peter Welch and then, in 2022, to Becca Balint.
Balint, the first woman and first openly LGBTQ member of Congress from Vermont, won by 24 points in 2022 with Sanders's backing and is favored for re-election with no serious Republican challenger. With only one at-large district, Vermont has no redistricting to contest.
Vermont Presidential Election Betting Odds
No state delivered Kamala Harris a larger margin than Vermont, 32 points, exceeding even her home state of California. Vermont has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. Cook PVI rates Vermont D+15. The 3 electoral votes are safe Democratic for 2028.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, who will be 89 in 2030 (his next election year), is the most prominent national Vermont political figure. His 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns shaped the modern Democratic Party. He has not signaled 2028 presidential intentions.
Vermont Presidential Election History
Vermont has one of the most dramatic partisan histories in the country. Once so reliably Republican that it went more than a century without backing a Democrat for president, it transformed during the late-20th-century in-migration of progressives and has voted Democratic in every election since 1992.
It now delivers some of the largest Democratic margins anywhere, Harris carried it by 31.5 points in 2024, a wider margin than her home state of California. Cook PVI rates it D+15, and its 3 electoral votes, the minimum, are never contested. Bernie Sanders, whose 2016 and 2020 campaigns reshaped the Democratic Party, remains its most prominent national figure.
Vermont Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Vermont politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Vermont Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Vermont's races, defined by the state's signature anomaly: a deeply liberal electorate that keeps re-electing Republican Gov. Phil Scott, now seeking a sixth two-year term against Democrat Amanda Janoo. Both Senate seats are off-cycle, and Rep. Becca Balint is favored to hold the at-large House seat.
Scott has won every race by at least 20 points and is rated Solid Republican even though Vermont gave Harris one of her largest margins, so the governor's contest is not expected to be close. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Vermont governor polls
No Vermont governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Vermont U.S. Senate polls
No Vermont U.S. Senate polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Vermont a red state or a blue state?
Vermont is one of the bluest states in the country at the presidential level, Harris won it by about 32 points in 2024, but it has a long tradition of electing Republican governors. Cook PVI rates it D+15, yet Republican Phil Scott holds the governorship.
Why does blue Vermont keep electing a Republican governor?
Phil Scott governs as a moderate who routinely breaks with Trump, even endorsing Joe Biden in 2024, and voters like him personally. He has won every race by at least 20 points, including 47 in 2024. The split between his wins and Vermont's presidential lean has held for five straight cycles.
Is there a Vermont Senate race in 2026?
No. Both seats are off-cycle, independent Bernie Sanders is up in 2030 and Democrat Peter Welch in 2028. The 2026 ballot is the governor's race and the single at-large House seat.
Who represents Vermont in the House?
Democrat Becca Balint, the first woman and first openly LGBTQ member of Congress from Vermont, who won the at-large seat in 2022 by 24 points. She is favored for re-election; Vermont has not sent a Republican to the House since 1990.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.