- Rep. Mike Collins and former football coach Derek Dooley advanced to a June 16 Republican runoff in Georgia’s Senate primary. Rep. Buddy Carter was knocked out. The winner will face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November.
- In the governor’s race, Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and billionaire Rick Jackson will meet in the same June 16 runoff. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms won the Democratic nomination outright with 57.7% of the vote.
- Kalshi gives Democrats an 83% chance of winning Georgia’s Senate race and a 57% edge in the governor’s race — two very different levels of confidence in the same state.
- Republicans spent more than $125 million on advertising in the governor’s primary alone. Jackson’s campaign accounted for more than $66 million of that total.
- The June 16 runoffs will extend Republican infighting just as Ossoff and Bottoms get a head start on the general election, a dynamic that shapes the current election odds in Democrats’ favor.
ATLANTA — Georgia Republicans held two expensive, messy primaries on Tuesday. Neither one produced a winner.
Both the Senate and governor’s races are heading to a June 16 runoff. That means more spending, more attack ads, and more time for Democrats to build toward November.
The election odds in Georgia on Kalshi already reflected this dynamic heading into primary night. And when the votes came in, the numbers only reinforced where the markets had been pointing.
Senate: Collins and Dooley Head to Runoff, Ossoff Stays at 83%
Rep. Mike Collins finished first in the Republican Senate primary with about 41.6% of the vote. Former football coach Derek Dooley came in second at around 28.5%. Rep. Buddy Carter, who had pledged to spend more than $10 million of his own money, finished third and was knocked out.
Neither Collins nor Dooley cleared the 50% threshold Georgia requires to avoid a runoff. The two will meet again on June 16 to decide who faces Ossoff in November.
Kalshi gives Democrats an 83% chance of winning the Georgia Senate race. Ossoff sits on $25 million in cash. He ran unopposed in Tuesday’s Democratic primary.
While Republicans now spend another month fighting each other, Ossoff gets to focus on the general election. That head start matters. Every dollar a Republican spends in the runoff is a dollar not spent against Ossoff in the fall.
Mike Collins
Collins represents Georgia’s 10th Congressional District and has served in Congress since 2023. He is the son of former Rep. Mac Collins. He entered the Senate race in July 2025 and quickly built the largest fundraising base in the Republican field.
His campaign is facing scrutiny over an ethics complaint tied to payments to a top aide’s girlfriend. The House Ethics Committee has taken up the matter. Collins has denied wrongdoing.
Derek Dooley
Dooley is the son of legendary University of Georgia football coach Vince Dooley. He coached at the University of Tennessee and later in the NFL before entering politics.
He has Gov. Brian Kemp’s personal endorsement. Dooley ran as a political outsider and avoided some of the sharper attacks that Collins and Carter aimed at each other during the campaign.
Governor: A $125 Million Primary That Settled Nothing — Yet
Republicans spent more than $125 million on governor’s race advertising. Jackson’s campaign alone accounted for more than $66 million. And they still couldn’t get one candidate over 50%.
Jones, the incumbent lieutenant governor, finished first with 38.7% of the vote. Jackson, the healthcare billionaire who launched his campaign in early 2026, came in second at 33.1%. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Chris Carr were eliminated.
The runoff is set for June 16. Jones has Trump’s endorsement. Jackson has his checkbook. Both will spend heavily to reach conservative voters before the deadline.
Meanwhile, Keisha Lance Bottoms won the Democratic nomination without going to a runoff. She took 57.7% of the vote. Her closest competitor, former DeKalb County CEO Jason Esteves, finished with 18.7%. Former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, who ran as a Democrat and was a vocal Trump critic, did not advance.
Kalshi gives Democrats a 57% chance of winning the general election for governor. That’s a lead, but not a comfortable one. The governor’s race is the tighter of the two Georgia contests on the prediction markets.
What the Odds Are Telling You
The two Georgia races are moving in different directions on the betting markets. The Senate race is lopsided. The governor’s race is genuinely competitive.
Ossoff at 83% on Kalshi is close to “likely Democrat” territory. That reflects his massive fundraising advantage, his incumbency, and the inability of Republicans to rally around a single challenger.
The governor’s race at 57%-43% is a different story. In 1998, Roy Barnes was the last Democratic governor elected in Georgia. Republicans have held the office ever since.
Bottoms enters November with a clear advantage in time and resources. But she’ll be running in a state Trump won in 2024 by about 2.2 points, against a nominee who will have Trump’s full backing.
For anyone watching election odds in the 2026 midterms, Georgia is two races in one state — and they’re telling very different stories heading into the summer.
Georgia’s Republican runoffs are scheduled for June 16, 2026. Both general elections are set for November 3, 2026.
