Trump Betting Odds — Live Prediction Markets For Every Trump Question Anyone Is Asking

Donald Trump is the single most-traded subject in the history of political prediction markets and US election odds. Polymarket and Kalshi run dozens of Trump-related markets at any given moment, and the volume on them dwarfs everything else in the politics category combined. On this page we track all of them in one place, organized by what they actually ask, so you can find the odds you came looking for without scrolling through fifty unrelated prop bets.

The markets below are live. Odds update twice a day. Volumes shown reflect what is currently being traded, not all-time totals, so a market that was huge last month but has gone quiet will sink down the list. If you don't see a Trump market you expect to find here, it's either resolved, closed, or not getting enough trading volume to qualify for inclusion. Click into any of the categories below to see what is actually moving.

Trump Impeachment Odds

Trump has been impeached twice and acquitted twice. Whether it happens a third time in his current term is one of the longest-running active markets on Polymarket, and the price moves with every news cycle that involves a controversial executive action or a Democratic House member saying the word out loud on cable. The market mostly sits in single-digit-percentage territory, but it spikes on real events. Worth watching if you want a leading indicator of how seriously the political class is taking any given scandal, since real money tends to react faster than headlines.

Will Trump Finish His Term? Resignation, 25th Amendment, and End-of-Term Markets

This is the morbid section. Polymarket has markets on whether Trump will finish his current term, whether he will resign, whether the 25th Amendment will be invoked, and yes, whether he will die in office. We are not endorsing the existence of these markets, but they are popular, they are heavily traded, and they exist whether or not we list them. The "will he finish his term" market is the cleanest aggregate of all of the above. Treat the rest as a rough thermometer for political and physical risk. Numbers tend to drift slightly upward as any 79-year-old president gets a year older, then bounce around with every health rumor or hospital visit. None of these markets is currently pricing imminent anything, but they exist for the people who want to bet on tail risk.

Trump Foreign Policy Betting Odds: Russia, Ukraine, Iran, China, Greenland

The foreign-policy markets are where Trump's prediction-market activity lives most intensely on a day-to-day basis. Will he end the war in Ukraine before X date. Will sanctions on Iran be lifted, tightened, or kept the same. Will he start a trade war with China by some specific quarter. Will the United States acquire Greenland (yes, this is a real market and yes, it has trading volume). Will tariffs on Canada or Mexico hit a particular threshold. These markets move fast because they react to actual statements, executive orders, and diplomatic moves rather than slow-grinding domestic political dynamics. If you want to see how the world thinks Trump's foreign policy will actually play out rather than how it is being narrated, this section is the most useful real-time indicator on the page.

Trump Legal Markets, Epstein Files, and Investigations

The Epstein files are the gift that keeps on giving for prediction-market enthusiasts. There are markets on whether they will be released, whether Trump's name will appear in additional documents, whether specific names will be named, and whether any new charges will be filed against anyone connected. Alongside the Epstein markets sit the long tail of remaining Trump civil cases, the question of whether he will issue any controversial self-related pardons, and various what-if-the-DOJ scenarios. None of these are particularly likely to resolve in dramatic ways based on current pricing, but the markets get hammered with volume every time a related headline drops. Track them here if you want the prediction-market view of Trump's ongoing legal entanglements without having to read all the court filings yourself.

Trump Executive Action Markets: Pardons, Firings, Executive Orders

Will Trump pardon someone you have heard of. Will he fire someone in his cabinet by a specific date. Will he sign a specific executive order. Will mass deportations hit a specific threshold. These are the markets where Polymarket traders bet on Trump's day-to-day governance, and they tend to be specific, time-bound, and resolve relatively quickly compared to election-cycle markets. The pardon markets in particular are popular as a kind of distributed insider-knowledge game, since informed people can sometimes see a pardon coming before the news breaks. Worth a look if you want a leading indicator on what is actually about to happen in the executive branch as opposed to what is being argued about.

Trump Approval Rating Prediction Markets

Polymarket and Kalshi both run markets on Trump's approval rating, usually structured as "will his approval be above X percent on date Y." These markets aggregate trader sentiment about whether the existing polling trend will continue, reverse, or accelerate. They tend to be quieter than the more dramatic markets above, but they are also more accurate as a forecasting tool because the question is so well-defined. If you want one number that summarizes "is Trump doing better or worse than expected this month," the approval markets are the cleanest signal available.

Trump Endorsement Markets: Who He Backs in 2026 and 2028

Trump's endorsement is the single most valuable political asset in Republican primary politics, and Polymarket has markets on every major race he might weigh in on. Will he endorse a specific candidate in a specific governor race. Will he back the establishment pick or the insurgent in a Senate primary. Will he endorse anyone for 2028, and if so, who. JD Vance is the current odds-on favorite for the 2028 endorsement, but the market shifts every time Trump goes on a podcast and says something complimentary about somebody else. We track all the active endorsement markets here, sorted by trading volume so the races people actually care about float to the top.

Trump Economy, Tariffs, and Market Indicator Bets

"Will the S&P be up or down by X percent by the end of Trump's term" is a market. So is "will the United States enter a recession during Trump's term." So is "will tariffs on China exceed Y percent." These are economic prediction markets framed around Trump's policies, and they are some of the most-traded markets on Polymarket because they overlap with the financial markets crowd that actually puts real money behind their views. If you want to see what the prediction-market consensus is on the real-world economic impact of Trump's economic agenda, sorted by what people are actively trading, this is the section.

Other Trump Prediction Markets

The catch-all section for Trump prop bets that do not fit any of the buckets above. This is where the genuinely weird markets live: bets on whether he will hold a rally in a specific city, whether he will tweet a specific number of times in a quarter, whether he will appear on a specific podcast, whether he will personally pick the next FBI director. The trading volume on these is usually thin but the entertainment value is high. Browse if you want to see the long tail of what people are betting on, or skip if you only care about the consequential markets above.

Trump Reelection Odds and 2028 Prediction Markets

NOTE: The Trump reelection markets only shows up from time to time when he mentions something about it. If there are odds that trump gets reelected then they will show up automatically!!!

The 22nd Amendment says Donald Trump cannot be elected to a third term as president. Polymarket runs markets on it anyway, and people trade them anyway, because hope dies hard and so does conspiracy. These are the Trump prediction markets people search for more than any other, and the prices are remarkably stable: usually under five percent, occasionally spiking on a comment from Trump himself that he could "find a way." The constitutional reality has not changed, but the market exists because there is enormous trading interest in it. We track every flavor of the question here, from the literal third-term markets to the related "Trump endorses himself for 2028" oddballs to markets on whether he runs as something other than the GOP nominee.

How Trump Prediction Markets Work and Why They Are Useful

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of thousands of people who are putting real money behind their beliefs. Unlike polls, which capture what people say in response to a survey, prediction markets capture what people are willing to bet on, which is a much stronger signal because it costs money to be wrong. For Trump specifically, prediction markets have outperformed both polls and pundits on questions ranging from whether he would run in 2024 to how he would do on election night to whether specific cabinet appointments would happen.

The two main platforms hosting US political markets are Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket operates internationally on cryptocurrency rails and has the higher volume on Trump markets specifically. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated alternative that operates in dollars and is available to US users without legal ambiguity. We pull odds from both and display whichever has higher trading volume for any given question.

Trump prediction markets move differently than other political markets. They react faster to news because there is more trading interest. They are more liquid because there are more traders watching them. And they often lead the news cycle by hours or days because informed traders front-run developments that have not yet broken publicly. Watching Trump markets is one of the best ways to get an early read on what is actually about to happen in American politics, separate from what cable news is currently debating.

Bookmark This Page

The Trump markets on this page update twice a day. New markets are added automatically as they go live on Polymarket and Kalshi, and resolved markets drop off automatically as well. Featured Odds at the top of the page is curated, refreshed regularly, and weighted toward the markets we think are most interesting or most newsworthy right now, with a fallback to the most-traded Trump markets if specific picks have resolved. If you want to keep up with where the prediction-market consensus on Trump is heading, the simplest move is to bookmark this URL and check back.