- Gov. Brad Little won the Republican gubernatorial primary Tuesday, defeating seven challengers. He will face Democrat Terri Pickens in November.
- Sen. Jim Risch won the Republican Senate primary with 65.18% of the vote, turning back three challengers. Democrat David Roth won his party’s nomination.
- Odds for either general election race are not available on Kalshi, because both are settled terrain for the GOP.
- Idaho hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1990 or a Democratic senator since 1974. The election odds strongly favor both Republican nominees in November.
BOISE, Idaho – Tuesday’s Idaho primary went exactly the way anyone who follows the state’s politics would expect.
Gov. Brad Little beat seven Republican opponents. Sen. Jim Risch beat three. Both will head to a November general election as heavy favorites.
Kalshi sees no competitive election odds in Idaho. Neither race shows up among the platform’s active general election markets. That’s the clearest signal the election odds community can send.
Senate: Risch Wins Easily at 65%
With 34 of 44 counties reporting, Risch had 65.18% of the Republican primary vote. The Associated Press called the race at 9:34 p.m. Mountain time.
His three challengers — Army veteran Joe Evans, ironworker Denny LaVe, and engineer Josh Roy — split the remaining votes. None came close to making it competitive.
On the Democratic side, David Roth won the nomination. Roth ran as the Democratic Senate nominee against Mike Crapo in 2022 and lost by more than 30 points. He is widely expected to face similar headwinds against Risch.
Idaho has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1974, which is why election odds for the state are rarely offered. Risch was reelected in 2022 by capturing 62.6% of the vote in a race that drew no significant opposition.
Jim Risch
Risch, 83, is one of the most experienced politicians in Idaho history. He served in state government for decades before winning his Senate seat in 2008.
He chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Trump endorsed him in April 2025. He is seeking a fourth term — something few senators ever attempt.
His challengers argued he was too old or not conservative enough. Voters disagreed by a wide margin.
Governor: Little Beats Seven Challengers
Little won the Republican primary and advances to November. The AP called the race Tuesday night after early returns showed him comfortably ahead of his seven opponents.
His closest challenger was Mark Fitzpatrick, a bar owner and former police officer who raised about $185,000 — a fraction of Little’s $1.9 million campaign war chest.
Democrat Terri Pickens won her primary with a commanding lead. The AP called her race early Tuesday evening. She will face Little in November.
Also on the November ballot will be independent John Stegner. Stegner, who is a retired justice from the Idaho Supreme Court, raised $264,252.
Idaho has not elected a Democratic governor since 1990. In 2022, Little was reelected with 60.5% of the vote. The structural math has not changed.
Brad Little
Little is 72 years old and is a rancher from Emmett who has been in Idaho public life for decades. He served in the state Senate and then as lieutenant governor before winning the governorship in 2018.
Trump endorsed him in June 2025, which helped him consolidate support heading into the primary. He has focused on tax cuts and education funding during his first two terms.
He also beat back a Trump-endorsed opponent in 2022. That cycle, Trump backed Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin against Little in the primary. Little won anyway. He has since patched things up with the president.
Terri Pickens
Pickens is an attorney who previously ran for lieutenant governor in 2022. She won Tuesday’s Democratic primary and becomes the party’s standard-bearer against Little.
She faces the same challenge every Democrat running statewide in Idaho confronts: a deeply red electorate, a popular incumbent, and a party brand that has not won the governorship in over 35 years.
The Bottom Line
Idaho’s primary produced the expected results. Both Little and Risch are headed to November as very heavy favorites.
Kalshi has no active market for either race. Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections all treat both seats as solidly Republican. There is no serious path for either Democratic nominee given the state’s history.
For bettors and political watchers tracking Kalshi and other political betting sites , Idaho is not one of the states with election odds. The primaries confirmed what everyone already knew — and the general elections are expected to do the same.
Both Idaho general elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026.
