Texas Primary Runoff Preview: Paxton, Cornyn and the Trump Endorsement Test

Polymarket priced Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton at 95.5% to win Tuesday’s Republican Senate runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, with Kalshi at 93.1%, after President Trump endorsed Paxton on May 19. Before the Trump endorsement, Kalshi had Paxton at …

Read More

Georgia 2026 Primary Recap: Ossoff and Governor Odds

Georgia 2026 Primary Recap: Ossoff and Governor Odds

Rep. Mike Collins and former football coach Derek Dooley advanced to a June 16 Republican runoff in Georgia’s Senate primary. Rep. Buddy Carter was knocked out. The winner will face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November. In the governor’s race, …

Read More

Idaho 2026 Primary Recap: Little and Risch Advance

Idaho 2026 Primary Recap: Little and Risch Advance

Gov. Brad Little won the Republican gubernatorial primary Tuesday, defeating seven challengers. He will face Democrat Terri Pickens in November. Sen. Jim Risch won the Republican Senate primary with 65.18% of the vote, turning back three challengers. Democrat David Roth …

Read More

Kentucky 2026: Barr Wins, Faces Booker in November

Kentucky 2026: Barr Wins, Faces Booker in November

Rep. Andy Barr won the Kentucky Republican Senate primary with 64% of the vote on Tuesday. He defeated former Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who finished second with 28%. Democrat Charles Booker won his party’s nomination and will face Barr in …

Read More

Oregon 2026: Kotek, Drazan, Merkley Odds Breakdown

Oregon 2026: Kotek, Drazan, Merkley Odds Breakdown

Kalshi had Christine Drazan at 78% to win the Oregon Republican governor primary on Tuesday, setting up what could be a rematch of the razor-thin 2022 general election against Gov. Tina Kotek. The Oregon governor’s race is listed among Kalshi’s …

Read More

Idaho 2026: Little, Risch Reelection Odds Breakdown

Idaho 2026: Little, Risch Reelection Odds Breakdown

Gov. Brad Little is seeking a third term and faces seven Republican primary challengers on May 19, but holds a massive fundraising lead — raising about $1.9 million compared to a combined total of roughly $700,000 for the rest of …

Read More

Arkansas 2026: Sanders, Cotton Reelection Odds

Arkansas 2026: Sanders, Cotton Reelection Odds

Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders ran unopposed in the Republican primary on March 3 and faces Democrat Fredrick Love in November; Kalshi does not list the race among its competitive markets, reflecting deep-red Arkansas’s political reality. Sen. Tom Cotton defeated two …

Read More

Georgia 2026: Ossoff, Governor Race Odds Breakdown

Georgia 2026: Ossoff, Governor Race Odds Breakdown

Kalshi gives Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff an 82% chance of winning Georgia’s Senate race in November, the highest of any Democrat defending a seat in a Trump-won state. Republicans head into Monday’s May 19 primary with a fractured field led …

Read More

West Virginia 2026: Capito, House Races Odds Breakdown

West Virginia 2026: Capito, House Races Odds Breakdown

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito won the West Virginia GOP Senate primary Tuesday with 66.5% of the vote, setting up a November general election against Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson. Kalshi treats the West Virginia Senate seat as safely Republican — Capito …

Read More