• Kalshi gives Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff an 82% chance of winning Georgia’s Senate race in November, the highest of any Democrat defending a seat in a Trump-won state.
• Republicans head into Monday’s May 19 primary with a fractured field led by Rep. Mike Collins, Rep. Buddy Carter, and former football coach Derek Dooley — a runoff on June 16 is considered likely.
• In the open governor’s race, Kalshi gives Democrats a 62% chance of winning, with former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms as the Democratic frontrunner against a divided Republican field.
• The Republican governor primary is led by healthcare executive Rick Jackson at 55% on Kalshi, narrowly ahead of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones at 44%, with a runoff also possible.
• Georgia is one of the few states where both the Senate and governor’s races carry genuine November drama, making it a centerpiece of the 2026 midterm election odds landscape.

Georgia 2026: What the Senate and Governor Primaries Mean for November Odds

ATLANTA — Georgia voters head to the polls Monday for what could be the most consequential state primaries of the 2026 midterm cycle. With an incumbent Democratic senator up for reelection in a state Donald Trump won, and an open governor’s race that both parties believe they can win, the Peach State is carrying more November weight than almost anywhere else on the map.

Here is where the election betting odds in Georgia stand— and what to watch when results start rolling in.

Senate: Ossoff Is the Favorite, but the Republican Field Will Determine How Real the Race Gets

Sen. Jon Ossoff is running for a second term unopposed in the Democratic primary, a sign of the party’s unity around its incumbent. That ease stands in sharp contrast to what Republicans have been navigating — a crowded, expensive, and at times chaotic primary race to determine who will challenge him in November.

Kalshi currently gives Democrats an 82% chance of winning the Georgia Senate race in November, with Republicans priced at 18%. That spread reflects Ossoff’s substantial structural advantages heading into the fall: a massive fundraising lead over the entire Republican field, strong approval among Georgia’s suburban voters, and a split opposition that has yet to consolidate behind a single challenger.

Still, Georgia is not a state where Democrats can take anything for granted. Trump carried it by about 2.2 points in 2024, and the state has a history of close statewide races — including three Senate elections since 2020 that went to runoffs. Ossoff himself won his seat in a January 2021 runoff, defeating incumbent Republican Sen. David Perdue. That narrow margin has kept national Republicans focused on the race even as the 2026 election odds currently favor the incumbent.

The Republican Senate Field

Three candidates are considered serious contenders for the Republican nomination:

Mike Collins: The 10th District congressman is the polling and fundraising leader in the Republican primary, raising just over $1 million in the first quarter of 2026. An April Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll put him at 22% among likely Republican primary voters, well ahead of the field, though more than half the electorate remained undecided. Collins has largely avoided intraparty attacks, instead running a general-election-style campaign focused on Ossoff.

Buddy Carter: The sixth-term congressman from southeast Georgia has branded himself a "MAGA Warrior" and made outreach to Trump a central part of his campaign, including introducing a resolution calling on the president to receive the Nobel Peace Prize.

Derek Dooley: The former University of Tennessee football head coach entered the race with the backing of Gov. Brian Kemp. Kemp’s endorsement gives Dooley credibility he would otherwise lack as a political newcomer, though polling consistently put him in third place.

Georgia requires a candidate to win more than 50% of the primary vote to avoid a runoff. Given the undecided share and fractured support heading into Monday, a June 16 runoff between the top two finishers is widely expected. Every week that Republicans spend running against each other is a week Ossoff is running against the eventual nominee.

Jon Ossoff

Ossoff, 39, is a documentary filmmaker and investigative journalist who made history when he won his Senate runoff in January 2021 as part of a pair of Democratic upsets that flipped the chamber. In the Senate he has focused heavily on government oversight and anti-corruption work. He has also worked on bipartisan issues including insulin price caps and rural opioid response.

He has out-fundraised the entire Republican field by a wide margin, a resource advantage that becomes especially important if Republicans extend their nomination process into a June runoff.

Governor: Democrats Favored in an Open Race, with Chaos on the GOP Side

The Georgia governor’s race is wide open after incumbent Brian Kemp reached his constitutional term limit. Kemp won reelection in 2022 by 7.5 points over Democrat Stacey Abrams, giving Republicans a baseline of confidence heading in. But the departure of a popular incumbent has left the GOP primary fractured — and that disorder has Kalshi pricing Democrats as the favorite at 62% to win the governorship, with Republicans at around 38%.

Keisha Lance Bottoms

The former Atlanta mayor and former director of the White House Office of Public Engagement is the clear Democratic frontrunner. An InsiderAdvantage survey conducted in late April gave her 52% in the Democratic primary, a number that signals she may clear the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff.

In general election matchups from April, Bottoms held a six-point lead over both Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and healthcare executive Rick Jackson, 49% to 43% in each case. Kalshi’s prediction market gives her the highest probability of any Democratic candidate to win the party’s nomination.

The Republican Governor Field

Rick Jackson: The healthcare executive and founder of Jackson Healthcare entered the race in early 2026 and quickly became a top contender with a reported $50 million personal campaign war chest and aggressive TV spending. Kalshi currently gives Jackson a 55% chance of winning the Republican primary, narrowly ahead of Jones.

Burt Jones: The incumbent lieutenant governor and Trump-endorsed candidate entered the race as the institutional frontrunner. Despite major fundraising advantages, Jones has found himself in a tight race with Jackson, with Kalshi pricing him at 44% to win the primary.

Brad Raffensperger: The incumbent secretary of state, best known nationally for refusing Trump’s pressure to "find" votes in the 2020 election, is running on a record of election integrity but has struggled to gain traction. Kalshi prices him at just 4% to win the primary.

The Bottom Line

Georgia is the one state on the 2026 map where both the Senate and governor’s race carry meaningful November stakes. Ossoff is a clear but not unbeatable favorite, and the longer the Republican primary war continues — especially if it runs through a June runoff — the better his position looks.

In the governor’s race, the Democratic advantage is real but narrow: Bottoms leads in the polls and prediction markets, but Georgia’s Republican lean at the state level and the energy of the Trump base mean a capable GOP nominee could make November competitive.

For bettors and political observers alike, Monday’s primary results will clarify both races considerably. Watch for whether any Republican clears 50% outright — in both the Senate and governor’s primaries — or whether Georgia’s notorious love of runoffs extends this contest well into June.