Colorado Primary Results: Weiser Beats Bennet After a Late Market Stampede, and the Underdog Bets Cash
- Colorado's primary paid off the underdog bettors. Phil Weiser beat U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet for the Democratic governor nomination, roughly 55% to 45%, after storming from a 27-cent long shot on June 23 to a clear favorite by the day before the vote.
- Early Weiser money was the ticket. A share bought near 27 cents returned a full dollar, close to a fourfold payout, while the market's season-long favorite, Bennet, left late backers holding losses.
- The Republican race is the real market shocker. Establishment state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer, an 18% afterthought on the market, narrowly led Victor Marx, priced near 75%, in a contest too close to call and possibly bound for a recount.
- In the 1st District, a true coin flip broke to the insurgent: 29-year-old democratic socialist Melat Kiros ousted 15-term Rep. Diana DeGette.
- The chalk still paid where it was thick: John Hickenlooper for Senate, Manny Rutinel in CO-08 and Jeff Hurd in CO-03 all held as heavy favorites.
DENVER - Colorado's primary was a payday for anyone willing to bet against the obvious. The night's biggest winner on the board was not a favorite but a comeback: Attorney General Phil Weiser, a deep long shot just a week earlier, beat U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet for the Democratic nomination for governor. On the Republican side, the candidate the markets had all but dismissed led the one they loved, in a race still too close to call. And a coin-flip House primary in Denver went to a 29-year-old insurgent. If you backed the underdogs, Tuesday was your night.
Governor, Democratic: The 27-Cent Ticket That Cashed
For most of the past year, Bennet was the bet. As a sitting senator with national name recognition, he sat around 67% on Polymarket and as high as 73% on Kalshi, and Weiser traded like an afterthought, about 27 cents on Kalshi and a third on Polymarket as recently as June 23. Then the bottom fell out. A late Public Policy Polling survey put Weiser ahead 45% to 36%, and traders stampeded. Within days Weiser's price rocketed to roughly 76 to 78 cents, while Bennet cratered to about a quarter. The two markets moved together on heavy volume, more than $660,000 on Kalshi and better than $430,000 on Polymarket.
Then Weiser closed it out, beating Bennet by about 55% to 45%, with the Associated Press calling it minutes after polls shut. The lesson for bettors is all about timing. Anyone who bought Weiser at 27 cents on June 23 turned it into a dollar, close to a fourfold return, while the crowd that stuck with the season-long favorite watched Bennet's shares expire at zero. The market got to the right answer, but the money was made by those who got there first. Weiser now steps in as the strong favorite for November, around 91% on the board to win a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2002.
Governor, Republican: The Longshot Leading the Lock
If the Democratic race rewarded early money, the Republican race is on track to reward the boldest money of all. Traders had made political newcomer Victor Marx a near-lock, close to 75%, on the back of roughly $2.7 million raised and a May poll at 42%. Establishment state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer was an 18% afterthought. Yet when the votes came in, Kirkmeyer led.
As of Wednesday morning, with about 90% counted, she sat at roughly 40.7% to Marx's 39.6%, a margin under half a point, with state Rep. Scott Bottoms at 20% and Marx talking recount. The race is uncalled, so nothing is banked yet, but if Kirkmeyer's lead holds, an 18-cent ticket pays out near five and a half times the stake, the fattest upside on the Colorado board. Bottoms, splitting the hard-right lane with Marx, may have handed it to her.
CO-01: A Coin Flip Breaks Left
The 1st District was priced honestly, and it still delivered a headline. The market treated Rep. Diana DeGette's race against Melat Kiros as a genuine toss-up, with the 29-year-old democratic socialist around 51%, so her win was close to even money rather than a shock. Kiros ousted the 15-term incumbent anyway, adding Colorado to the run of veteran Democrats losing to candidates from the left this cycle. On the House primary odds, it was the rare marquee race the market read as a true 50-50, and the coin came up for the challenger.
Where the Chalk Paid
Not every favorite fell, and the heavy ones held. Sen. John Hickenlooper, parked in the 90s all spring, brushed aside progressive Julie Gonzales for the Democratic Senate nod and meets Republican Mark Baisley in November. In the 8th District, the state's marquee fall battleground, Manny Rutinel won the Democratic primary as priced and now faces Republican Rep. Gabe Evans in a seat the market already leans Democratic, near 75% to flip. And Republican Rep. Jeff Hurd turned back a challenge from his right in the 3rd. These were the low-payout, high-confidence tickets, and they all came in.
The Upside Scorecard
Tally the tickets and Colorado was a night to be long the long shots. Weiser at 27 cents returned nearly fourfold; Kirkmeyer at 18 cents is live for more than five times, pending the count; and the CO-01 coin flip paid roughly even money on the insurgent. The two candidates the markets crowned, Bennet near two-thirds and Marx near three-quarters, are the ones who lost or trailed. Only Hickenlooper, Rutinel and Hurd rewarded the favorite-backers, and at short prices. One reminder: these are win probabilities, not vote shares, and the reason a 27-cent ticket pays like it does is precisely that it is supposed to lose more often than not.
On to November
The result reset the fall in a hurry. On the wider gubernatorial betting odds, Weiser is now the heavy favorite to succeed the term-limited Jared Polis, with the Democrat near 91% to hold the office. The Rutinel-Evans race in CO-08 becomes the state's one true toss-up, tilting Democratic on current pricing, and CO-01 will send a democratic socialist toward a safe blue seat. For the latest election odds, Colorado's board resets for a November whose biggest surprises, and biggest payouts, already landed in June.
