World Election Odds & Global Political Prediction Markets
Live prediction market odds on elections and political transitions around the world, from Brazil and Colombia to Israel, the UK, and beyond. We track when each country votes, who holds power now, who is running, and what the markets say, all aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi and updated twice daily. Below is a global election calendar with live countdowns, a country-by-country guide, and links to our in-depth pages for each nation.
Global Election Calendar at a Glance
Election dates and current leaders are maintained by hand and current as of mid-2026. Countdowns update live in your browser.
| Country | Next election | Countdown | Type | Current leader |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | Oct. 4, 2026 (first round); runoff Oct. 25 | Presidential & general | Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva | |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia | Runoff June 21, 2026 (first round held May 31) | Presidential | Gustavo Petro | |
| 🇵🇪 Peru | April 12, 2026 (first round); runoff June 7 | Presidential & general | Interim government (see note) | |
| 🇻🇪 Venezuela | No scheduled vote (see note) | Not scheduled | Presidential / transition | Delcy Rodriguez (acting) |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | By Oct. 27, 2026 (could come earlier) | Parliamentary (Knesset) | Benjamin Netanyahu | |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | October 2027 (presidential) | Presidential & general | Javier Milei | |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 2030 (presidential) | Presidential & general | Claudia Sheinbaum | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | By Oct. 2029 (could come earlier) | Not scheduled | Parliamentary (federal) | Mark Carney |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | By Aug. 2029 (could come earlier) | Parliamentary (general) | Keir Starmer |
Why Bet on International Elections?
For years, prediction markets were dominated by U.S. politics. That has changed. As Polymarket and Kalshi have grown, traders have poured money into elections and political transitions worldwide, and the resulting prices have become a fast, money-backed read on races that most Americans never see polled. A contested election in Venezuela, a knife-edge runoff in Brazil, the timing of a snap vote in Canada: all of these now carry live odds that move on the news.
International election markets are useful for the same reason domestic ones are. They aggregate the views of people willing to put money behind their opinions, which tends to punish wishful thinking and reward those who actually follow the race. They are especially valuable where local polling is thin, suppressed, or untrustworthy. The sections below walk through each country we track, what is on the ballot, and who holds power now, followed by a guide to the kinds of markets you will see and how accurate they tend to be.
🇧🇷 Brazil Election Odds
Brazil holds its general election on Oct. 4, 2026, choosing the president, the entire Chamber of Deputies, two-thirds of the Senate, and every state governor. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, in office since 2023 and previously from 2003 to 2010, is seeking an unprecedented fourth term at age 80. With former president Jair Bolsonaro imprisoned and barred, his son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, has emerged as the leading right-wing challenger, and polls through early 2026 showed a statistical dead heat in a simulated runoff. If no candidate clears 50 percent on Oct. 4, a runoff follows on Oct. 25.
🇨🇴 Colombia Election Odds
Colombia held the first round of its presidential election on May 31, 2026, with a runoff scheduled for June 21 if no candidate won an outright majority. President Gustavo Petro, the country's first left-wing president, is constitutionally barred from a second consecutive term, making this a referendum on his legacy. The race pits his Historic Pact successor, Senator Ivan Cepeda, against right-wing rivals including firebrand lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and Senator Paloma Valencia. The campaign has been shadowed by political violence, including the June 2025 assassination of a presidential hopeful.
🇵🇪 Peru Election Odds
Peru votes April 12, 2026, in a general election that will produce its next elected president after a decade of extraordinary instability. The winner will be the country's ninth leader in 10 years, following a cascade of impeachments: Pedro Castillo, then Dina Boluarte, then a short-lived José Jerí, removed in February 2026 and replaced by interim president José María Balcázar. A fragmented Congress wielding impeachment power has driven the turnover. With dozens of candidates registered, top contenders include three-time runner-up Keiko Fujimori and Lima Mayor Rafael López Aliaga, and a presidential runoff is set for June 7.
🇻🇪 Venezuela Election Odds
Venezuela has no scheduled national election, but it is one of the most actively traded political situations in the world after a dramatic 2026. A January 2026 U.S. military operation captured then-president Nicolas Maduro, and Vice President Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as acting president, a transition the U.S. recognized while easing some oil sanctions. Opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado, who the opposition says won the disputed 2024 vote through stand-in Edmundo Gonzalez, has announced she intends to run again and return from exile before the end of 2026. Markets here price leadership, the odds of a free election, and U.S. involvement.
🇮🇱 Israel Election Odds
Israel must hold its next Knesset election no later than Oct. 27, 2026, though the government could fall and trigger an earlier vote. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces intense pressure after the October 2023 Hamas attack and the Gaza war, with polls showing a large majority of Israelis believing he should step down. New challengers have emerged, including Naftali Bennett and former general Gadi Eisenkot. Because Netanyahu's political survival is tied to the war, we also track related markets on our war and conflict page; this page focuses on the election itself.
🇦🇷 Argentina Election Odds
Argentina's next presidential election is set for October 2027, when libertarian President Javier Milei, in office since December 2023, is eligible to run for re-election and has signaled he intends to. His self-styled "anarcho-capitalist" program of deep spending cuts has been the central story of his term, alongside a fierce fight against inflation. After his bloc's performance in the October 2025 midterms, attention turns to whether his economic gamble holds through 2027. Markets here price both his re-election odds and his political survival.
🇲🇽 Mexico Election Odds
Mexico's next presidential election is in 2030. President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in October 2024 as the country's first woman president, leads the governing Morena movement and cannot be re-elected under Mexico's single-term limit. Before then, the country holds significant midterm and judicial elections, including an expansion of its new system of electing judges. Election markets on Mexico tend to focus on Sheinbaum's approval, Morena's dominance, and the U.S. relationship on trade and security.
🇨🇦 Canada Election Odds
Canada's next federal election must be held by October 2029, but Prime Minister Mark Carney leads a minority Liberal government, so a vote could come sooner if the government loses the confidence of the House of Commons. Carney, a former central banker, won the April 2025 election after replacing Justin Trudeau, campaigning heavily on standing up to U.S. tariffs and annexation talk. The Conservative opposition under Pierre Poilievre remains close in the polls. Markets here price the timing of the next election and which party forms the next government.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom Election Odds
The United Kingdom must hold its next general election by August 2029, though the prime minister can call one sooner. Labour's Keir Starmer won a landslide majority of seats in July 2024 but on a historically low vote share, and his standing has fallen sharply since, with heavy losses in the 2026 local elections. The big story is the rise of Nigel Farage's Reform UK, which has surged past both major parties in some polls, reshaping what was long a two-party system. Markets here price the next election's timing, the largest party, and whether Starmer stays on as leader.
How Elections Differ Around the World
One reason global election markets can be confusing is that no two countries vote the same way. Presidential systems, like Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Argentina, elect a head of state directly, often with a two-round runoff if no candidate wins a majority in the first round. Parliamentary systems, like the United Kingdom, Canada, and Israel, elect a legislature, and the head of government is whoever can command a majority in it, which means the prime minister can change without a national election and a vote can be called early.
Term lengths and limits vary too. Colombian presidents serve a single four-year term with no re-election. Brazilian and Argentine presidents can seek re-election. Mexican presidents are limited to one six-year term. In parliamentary systems, there is usually a maximum interval between elections, by August 2029 in the UK, by October 2029 in Canada, but the actual date is often the government\'s choice or forced by a loss of confidence. These differences shape the markets: a fixed presidential date produces a clean countdown, while a parliamentary system produces markets on when the election will even be held.
Types of Global Election Markets You Will See
International election markets cluster into a few recurring shapes. Knowing the type tells you what has to happen for a contract to resolve.
How Accurate Are International Election Odds?
In aggregate, prediction markets are well-calibrated: across thousands of markets, outcomes priced at 30 percent happen about 30 percent of the time. Large studies of Polymarket, spanning millions of users and tens of billions in trading volume, bear this out, and the markets have a strong record on major elections. They are often quicker than polls to reflect late shifts, and they price things polls cannot, like the chance an election is delayed or a leader resigns.
The caveats apply with extra force abroad. Markets on smaller countries can be thin, meaning a single large trader can move the price, and they work best where information flows freely. In places with censored media or contested vote counts, the market is only as good as the information reaching traders. Treat the high-volume markets, such as a Brazilian presidential runoff, as a strong signal, and the thin ones as a softer read. Always check the volume before leaning on a number.
World Election Odds FAQ
More Election & Conflict Odds
Beyond world elections, we track U.S. and global markets across the board. See our coverage of the 2028 presidential race and 2026 Senate odds for domestic politics, and our war and conflict odds page for geopolitics, including deep dives on Iran and the Russia vs. Ukraine war. Several conflicts and elections overlap: Israel and Venezuela both appear here and in our geopolitics coverage.
How We Source These Odds
We pull live data twice daily from the public APIs of Polymarket and Kalshi. For each market we show the implied probability, the midpoint of the live price, expressed as a percentage. We never modify the underlying numbers. When a market resolves or its deadline passes, it drops off automatically, and new markets appear as they list. The election calendar, country facts, and current leaders are maintained by hand and dated. The odds are not. They update on their own.
We do not operate Polymarket or Kalshi and we do not take bets. We aggregate their public data and present it in one place, for free. Markets on smaller countries can be thin and moved by a single trader, and should not be read as forecasts. Election dates and leaders are cited as of the dates noted and will change over time.