2028 Presidential Candidates: Profiles, Odds and Outlook
Live prediction-market odds, written profiles, announcement timeline and primary calendar for every major 2028 candidate trading on Polymarket and Kalshi. Updated twice daily.
State of the 2028 Presidential Field
For the first time since 2016, both major American political parties enter a presidential cycle with genuinely open primaries. Donald Trump is term-limited and Joe Biden is no longer in elected office, removing the two figures who shaped every Democratic and Republican race since 2017. What replaces them, at least according to the people putting real money on Polymarket and Kalshi, is a top-heavy Republican field built around the sitting administration and a sprawling Democratic field still searching for a standard-bearer.
On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance has held a steady lead through 2026 even as his prices have bounced between the mid-teens and the high 20s. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is the consensus second choice, lifted by his visible foreign-policy role on Iran and Venezuela. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis hovers below the top tier but retains 2024 infrastructure and a term that runs out in January 2027. Tucker Carlson appears on every market on the strength of his platform alone.
The Democratic side is wider. California Governor Gavin Newsom leads, but his lead has narrowed since the spring as Kamala Harris reasserted herself and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez showed unexpected head-to-head strength in late-2025 polling. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear round out the live possibilities. None of them sits above 10 percent. All of them have a plausible path.
The Two Presidential Candidates To Watch In 2028
Different parties, different paths. Here is where the current frontrunner of each party stands.
Vance has been the most consistent name at the top of the Republican market since taking office. Traders price him as roughly twice as likely as the next Republican, reflecting both incumbency-style advantages and a Trump base that has largely consolidated behind him. The risks are well known: a foreign policy stumble on Iran, a primary challenge from the right or a shift in the relationship with the president.
Newsom enters the 2028 cycle the way most modern frontrunners enter: with name recognition, a national press platform and unresolved questions about whether either translates into primary votes. He has spent 2025 and 2026 building a case beyond California, including a book tour and visits to early states. His lead is smaller than Vance's and his ceiling is contested.
2028 Presidential Candidates By Party
The 2028 race breaks into two parallel contests: a Republican primary that traders see as a Trump-coalition succession, and a Democratic primary that is genuinely wide open. The two sides have very different shapes. Here is the live field on each.
2028 Republican Presidential Candidates
The Republican field is concentrated at the top. Vice President JD Vance has led almost every prediction-market reading since taking office, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has carved out a clear second position thanks to his visible Iran and Venezuela portfolio. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis runs as the candidate with leftover 2024 infrastructure and a term that ends in January 2027. Tucker Carlson sits in the conversation despite no formal campaign apparatus, on the strength of his media platform and base loyalty.
- JD VanceVice President
18.4%
- Marco RubioSecretary of State
13.2%
- Ron DeSantisGovernor of Florida
2.9%
- Tucker CarlsonMedia Personality
3%
- Glenn YoungkinFormer Governor of Virginia
0.8%
2028 Democratic Presidential Candidates
The Democratic field is sprawling. California Governor Gavin Newsom has held the lead through 2026 but no Democrat sits above the mid-teens. Former Vice President Kamala Harris has the highest name recognition and declined the California gubernatorial race in March to keep her options open. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez showed unexpected head-to-head strength against Vance in late-2025 polling. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear round out the live possibilities.
- Gavin NewsomGovernor of California
16%
- Kamala HarrisFormer Vice President
6.3%
- Alexandria Ocasio-CortezU.S. Representative, NY-14
5.2%
- Jon OssoffU.S. Senator, GA
3.3%
- Josh ShapiroGovernor of Pennsylvania
3%
- Pete ButtigiegFormer Sec. of Transportation
2.1%
- Andy BeshearGovernor of Kentucky
1.7%
The Full 2028 Presidential Candidate Field
Every major 2028 contender tracked by Polymarket or Kalshi, with our editorial briefing on where each candidate stands. Click any name for the full profile.
2028 Presidential Announcement Timeline
No one in the top tier has formally declared yet, which is normal for this far out. Below is where each candidate sits on the unofficial path from rumor to candidacy. The first formal campaign launches in the modern era usually come in the spring of the year before the election.
2028 primary calendar
Both parties are still finalizing their 2028 calendars, but the early states have not changed much in living memory. Iowa traditionally goes first on the Republican side, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. The Democratic National Committee shuffled its calendar in 2024 to put South Carolina first, and the question of whether to keep that order or restore Iowa is one of the bigger procedural fights ahead.
Republican calendar (expected)
- Mid-Jan 2028 Iowa caucuses
- Late Jan 2028 New Hampshire primary
- Early Feb 2028 Nevada caucuses
- Mid-Feb 2028 South Carolina primary
- March 7, 2028 Super Tuesday
- Jul 2028 Republican National Convention
Democratic calendar (expected)
- Early Feb 2028 South Carolina primary
- Early Feb 2028 Nevada primary
- Mid-Feb 2028 New Hampshire primary
- Mid-Feb 2028 Michigan primary
- March 7, 2028 Super Tuesday
- Aug 2028 Democratic National Convention
How we built this list
We profiled the 12 candidates who consistently appear in the highest-volume 2028 prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, with a few editorial calls. We excluded President Trump as the market for his name is mostly a constitutional curiosity, and we excluded short-lived names that have either dropped out or never had a meaningful campaign infrastructure. The list will grow as new candidates emerge, drop or are added to the markets. Names are ordered by current 2028 prediction-market odds, with ties broken editorially.