GA-13 Special Election Odds: A Two-Democrat Coin Flip for David Scott's Old Seat
- Georgia's 13th District votes Tuesday, July 28, to fill the seat of the late Rep. David Scott, and the prediction markets rate it a near coin flip between two Democrats.
- The market aggregate edges former Gwinnett school board chair Everton Blair at about 53% over Marcye Scott, the late congressman's daughter, at roughly 47%. Volume is thin, because the seat is short-lived.
- The winner serves only the remainder of Scott's term, through January. The full next term was already claimed in May, when Jasmine Clark won the Democratic primary that Polymarket had priced at 76%.
- It is a safe-blue seat run as a jungle special, so a Democrat is a lock; with the vote splitting across a five-candidate ballot, an Aug. 25 runoff is the likely path.
- Two Republicans and a third Democrat trail badly, and one disqualified Democrat still appears on the ballot with his votes voided, a wrinkle that could nudge the runoff math.
ATLANTA — Georgia's 13th Congressional District votes Tuesday to fill a seat emptied by tragedy, and the betting markets have it as one of the tightest calls on the July board. After the death of 12-term Rep. David Scott, Gov. Brian Kemp set a special election for July 28. The catch is that the winner serves only the few months left on Scott's term, through January, because the full term was spoken for back in May. That makes this a low-stakes race with a genuinely competitive board, and the prediction markets split it almost down the middle between two Democrats.
A Seat-Warmer With a Real Contest
The confusing part is that GA-13 is really two elections at once. The regular Democratic primary for the full 2027 term was held May 19, and state Rep. Jasmine Clark won it comfortably. Polymarket had priced Clark at roughly 76% going in, and she is the heavy favorite to take the seat for the next full term in November. Tuesday's contest is the other one: a special election to finish the sliver of Scott's current term. Whoever wins it heads to Washington for a matter of months before Clark, in all likelihood, takes over in January. The seat itself is not in doubt. Scott won reelection in 2024 with about 72% of the vote, and the district was drawn as safe blue. Under Georgia's jungle rules, every candidate shares one ballot, and if no one clears 50%, the top two advance to an Aug. 25 runoff.
The Board: Blair Edges the Congressman's Daughter
For a short-term seat, the market is surprisingly live. The prediction-market aggregate prices Everton Blair, the former chair of the Gwinnett County school board, at about 53%, with Marcye Scott, the late congressman's daughter, at roughly 47%. It is essentially a two-horse race with a thin book behind it, exactly what you would expect when the prize is a few months in office. Blair brings organization and a track record: a Harvard and Stanford graduate, he was the only contender to run in both the full-term primary and the special. Scott brings the name and the story, having spent two decades in public service alongside her father and having entered the race during his funeral. Attorney Carlos Moore rounds out the Democratic side, while Republicans Caesar Gonzales and Fayth Park are little more than longshots in a seat this blue.
Why a Runoff Is the Base Case
The likeliest outcome Tuesday is not a winner at all, but a runoff. With three Democrats splitting the party's dominant share and two Republicans skimming the rest, the math to clear 50% in one round is difficult, which is why the market is really handicapping the eventual Aug. 25 result rather than the July 28 top line. There is also a genuine oddity in the mix: Democrat Tony Brown was disqualified but still appears on the ballot, and any votes for him are void. In a low-turnout summer special where a runoff berth could come down to a few thousand ballots, those wasted votes are not nothing. For a bettor, the practical read is that Tuesday sets the matchup and the runoff settles it.
The Bettor's Read
This is a thin, high-variance market, so treat it accordingly. A near coin flip at 53-47 in a low-turnout special is barely an edge for the favorite, and the real drivers are name recognition, the Scott family legacy against Blair's organizational muscle, and who banks early votes. The partisan question is dead money, no one is pricing a Republican to win this seat, so the entire contest is the intra-Democratic call and the runoff structure behind it. Anyone shopping the wider congressional odds will find few races this evenly split. As always, these are implied probabilities carrying the book's hold, not called results, and a 53% favorite in a two-way tossup is only a half-step ahead.
The Bigger Picture
Zoom out and the stakes are modest. The winner of this special will be one of the shortest-tenured members of the current Congress, holding the seat only until the new term begins in January, when Clark is favored to take over for the long haul. That does not make Tuesday meaningless, a coin-flip race for a real House seat is still a coin-flip race, but it does explain the thin volume and the muted national attention. For anyone tracking other special elections this cycle, GA-13 is a reminder that not every open seat is a marquee fight.
What to Watch
Three things decide it: turnout in a sleepy July special, whether Blair or Scott can consolidate enough to avoid or win the runoff, and how the void ballots and the two-Republican split shape the top two. Watch the July 28 order of finish, then reset for Aug. 25. For the latest election odds, GA-13 is a small race with a genuinely undecided board, the kind of coin flip that does not come along often on an otherwise chalky summer calendar.
