- Polymarket is in talks to raise about $1 billion at a valuation above $20 billion.
- The April round valued the company at $15 billion, making the new target a 33% step-up in four months.
- Kalshi traded $37.7 billion in July, about 74.5% of the category, while Polymarket’s combined volume fell to $12.9 billion.
- Polymarket’s annualized revenue has passed $1.2 billion, up from the $1 billion it disclosed in late June.
NEW YORK – Polymarket is in talks to raise about $1 billion at a valuation above $20 billion, a person familiar with the talks confirmed to CNBC, four months after the prediction market closed a round that valued it at $15 billion.
A 33% Step-Up Four Months After The Last Round
The same person confirmed that the April round closed at a $15 billion valuation and included the $600 million direct cash investment Intercontinental Exchange announced in March. Bloomberg first reported the new talks on Aug. 4. Polymarket declined to comment.
A valuation above $20 billion would be the company’s first mark set since its U.S. exchange dropped the waitlist in May.
Kalshi Took 74.5% Of July Volume As Polymarket’s Fell
Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US traded a combined $50.59 billion in July, a monthly record and 7.8% above June’s $46.95 billion, The Block reported. Kalshi accounted for $37.7 billion of that, up 14% on the month and about 74.5% of the total.
Polymarket’s main platform fell 26% to $7.9 billion and Polymarket US rose 54% to $5 billion. Together the two traded $12.9 billion, down from $14 billion in June. The record month ran alongside the World Cup, June 11 to July 19, not the election odds that built the category. Settlement of the tournament’s contracts drained open interest across the three exchanges, which stood near $2 billion when July opened and $1.2 billion when it closed.
What Each Mark Pays Per Dollar Of Traded Volume
Kalshi announced in May that it had closed a round valuing it at $22 billion, and the Financial Times reported in June that it was in talks to raise at a $40 billion valuation in the third quarter.
Set against July volume, the three marks price turnover differently. Polymarket’s target of more than $20 billion works out to about $1.55 of equity value for every dollar its two platforms traded in July. Kalshi’s closed $22 billion mark implies about 58 cents, and the $40 billion figure implies about $1.06. Notional volume is not revenue, and the exchanges charge for trades differently, so the ratios measure size rather than earnings.
Revenue Past $1.2 Billion Since The Waitlist Came Off
Polymarket told CNBC in late June that its annualized revenue had passed $1 billion. Reporting on the current talks puts the figure above $1.2 billion. Its regulated U.S. exchange opened to all American users in May, after debuting with a waitlist in December 2025.
The U.S. exchange trades more than $100 million in notional volume a day, up from about $75 million at the end of May, and the company’s international platform runs above $150 million a day, according to Dune Analytics.
The Sports Contracts Behind The Volume Are Under State Attack
The volume both exchanges are being valued on increasingly comes from sports event contracts, the product state gaming regulators are moving to stop. New York sued Kalshi over election and sports contracts on July 31.
Two days earlier, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission lost its bid to block the Wisconsin prediction market suits.
Polymarket has its own federal exposure. Reports of a CFTC investigation into the company’s business and social media promotion surfaced in late June, a day after Sens. John Curtis of Utah and Adam Schiff of California asked Chairman Michael S. Selig whether prediction market operators may lawfully use simulated trades in promotional videos.
Polymarket’s talks remain at an early stage and the terms could change. Kalshi’s round was reported as coming in the third quarter, which ends Sept. 30.
