- Maine, Iowa and Texas are the tightest Senate races on Kalshi, with favorites at 57, 58 and 61 cents.
- Ohio trades within two cents of Texas on both exchanges, with Sherrod Brown at 63 cents on Kalshi against James Talarico’s 61.
- Polymarket lists Democrats at 59.5 cents in Maine, 41.5 in Iowa and 62.5 in Texas, within 2.5 cents of Kalshi.
- North Carolina’s Roy Cooper and Georgia’s Jon Ossoff are each near 95 cents, with New Hampshire’s Chris Pappas at 90.
WASHINGTON – Maine, Iowa and Texas are the closest contests on the Senate race odds 2026 board, with each favorite priced between 57 and 62.5 cents on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Oct. 16.
Maine Edges Iowa As The Tightest Race On Kalshi
Democrat Troy Jackson trades at 57 cents on Kalshi and Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 43, a 14-point gap that makes Maine the tightest Senate race on the exchange.
Iowa’s favorite costs one cent more, with Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson at 58 cents and Democrat Josh Turek at 44. It is the one race of the three where the Republican is the favorite. A 57-cent Jackson contract implies roughly a 57% chance of a Democratic win, so a Collins backer needs her to win more than 43% of the time to profit, before fees.
Polymarket Runs 2.5 Cents Higher On Maine’s Democrat
Polymarket lists Democrats at 59.5 cents in Maine, 2.5 above Kalshi, a gap only Iowa matches among the nine races compared. It has Republicans at 58.5 cents in Iowa and Democrats at 62.5 in Texas, each within 1.5 cents of Kalshi. The same Jackson win costs 2.5 cents more on Polymarket, while a Collins upset costs 1.5 cents less.
The Nine Races, Tightest First
The nine races compared appear below by Kalshi’s margin, in cents per $1 contract as of the morning of Oct. 16, with the latest Senate election odds behind them.
| Race | Kalshi odds (cents) | Polymarket odds, Democrats (cents) |
|---|---|---|
| Maine | Troy Jackson (D) 57, Susan Collins (R) 43 | 59.5 |
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) 58, Josh Turek (D) 44 | 41.5 |
| Texas | James Talarico (D) 61, Ken Paxton (R) 39 | 62.5 |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) 63, Jon Husted (R) 39 | 61.5 |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 69, Mike Rogers (R) 33 | 69.5 |
| Alaska | Democrats 74, Republicans 26 | 73.5 |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas (D) 90, John E. Sununu (R) 10 | 88.5 |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper (D) 95.4, Michael Whatley (R) 5 | 95.8 |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff (D) 95.4, Mike Collins (R) 4.7 | 96.0 |
Texas Draws Four Times Maine’s Trading On Kalshi
Democrat James Talarico trades at 61 cents in Texas and Republican Ken Paxton at 39, a 22-point gap, with Talarico’s price implying about a 61% chance of a Democratic win. Kalshi’s Texas Senate market shows about 18.3 million Paxton contracts traded, four times the 4.6 million on Collins in Maine and seven times the 2.6 million on Hinson in Iowa.
Polymarket shows the same ranking in dollars, with about $3.8 million traded on its Texas event, $2.3 million on Maine and $0.9 million on Iowa. Iowa is the thinnest of the three on both exchanges, so its 58-cent price rests on the least money and can shift on fewer large orders. The Texas election odds page tracks that race.
Ohio Sits A Point From Texas On Both Exchanges
Democrat Sherrod Brown trades at 63 cents on Kalshi against 39 for Republican Sen. Jon Husted, a 24-point gap and two points wider than Texas. Polymarket has Ohio’s Democrats at 61.5 cents, one under Texas’s 62.5, so the two races trade as a near-tie for third-tightest. Michigan is next among the nine, with Abdul El-Sayed at 69 cents on Kalshi and 69.5 on Polymarket.
North Carolina And Georgia Sit Near 95 Cents
Kalshi’s last trade on both Roy Cooper in North Carolina and Jon Ossoff in Georgia was 95.4 cents, against 5 cents for Republican Michael Whatley and 4.7 for Rep. Mike Collins. New Hampshire’s Chris Pappas is at 90 cents and Alaska’s Democrats at 74. A 95.4-cent contract risks about $21 to win $1, while the Republican side in each race costs 5 cents or less and returns $19 or more per $1 staked.
The wider election odds board tracks all nine races, and voters decide each of them Nov. 3, 18 days from now.
