- James Talarico’s Kalshi price is 66 cents, up from 61 on Oct. 19, and Ken Paxton’s is 34, down from 39.
- Talarico’s 68-cent close on Oct. 21 was the highest since the market opened in 2024, and Paxton’s 33 the lowest.
- Texas is Kalshi’s most heavily traded Senate race with 37.2 million contracts, and about 2.1 million changed hands on Oct. 21.
- Polymarket has Talarico at 66.5 cents and Paxton at 33.5, with Talarico up four cents on the week.
AUSTIN, Texas – Texas Senate race odds moved back toward Democrat James Talarico this week, with his Kalshi contract at 66 cents after closing at a record 68 on Oct. 21, while Republican Ken Paxton slipped to 34 from 39 on Oct. 19.
Talarico Gained Seven Cents In Two Sessions
Kalshi’s Texas Senate market has Talarico’s contract at 66 cents, with a 65-cent bid and a 66-cent ask. It closed at 61 on Oct. 19, rose to 64 on Oct. 20 and reached 68 on Oct. 21, the highest daily close since the contract opened in December 2024, before easing to 67 on Oct. 22.
The 66 matches his Oct. 8 close, so the market has retraced a slide that took the contract to 61 by Oct. 16. The Oct. 16 Senate race odds board had him at that same 61.
Paxton’s contract closed at 39 on Oct. 19, fell to 37 on Oct. 20 and dropped to 33 on Oct. 21, the lowest daily close in the market’s history. It trades at 34 now, the midpoint of a 33-cent bid and a 35-cent ask, with the last trade at 35.
A Talarico contract at 66 cents risks 66 to win 34 before fees, while Paxton’s risks 34 to win 66, against 39 to win 61 at his Oct. 19 price.
| Close | Talarico odds (cents) | Paxton odds (cents) |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 8 | 66 | 37 |
| Oct. 16 | 61 | 39 |
| Oct. 19 | 61 | 39 |
| Oct. 20 | 64 | 37 |
| Oct. 21 | 68 | 33 |
| Oct. 22 | 67 | 34 |
Texas Trading Runs More Than Triple Any Other Senate Race
Paxton’s side has traded 24.6 million contracts and Talarico’s side 12.7 million, for 37.2 million in all. Maine is next at 10.2 million and Michigan third at 8.8 million.
The repricing came on heavy volume. About 2.1 million contracts changed hands across the two Texas markets on Oct. 21 and 1.9 million on Oct. 22, against 925,000 on Oct. 19. The jump rested on more than twice the earlier trading, not on a thin book.
Polymarket Moved The Same Direction
Polymarket’s Texas Senate event has Talarico at 66.5 cents and Paxton at 33.5, with about $5.7 million traded. Talarico sat near 62.5 cents there through Oct. 19, reached 67.5 on Oct. 22 and has eased a cent since. The two exchanges sit within half a cent of each other on his contract, so the move was not specific to one venue.
Houston Poll Has Talarico Ahead 48% To 46%
A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs survey of 2,000 likely voters, taken Oct. 10-14, had Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 46%. The two-point gap is close to the survey’s 2.19-point margin of error.
Kalshi’s biggest move came days after those results were published. A 66-cent price implies roughly a two-in-three chance, which leaves the market well ahead of a poll that shows the race inside its error margin.
Early Voting Ends Oct. 30
Texas early voting began Oct. 19 and ends Oct. 30, according to the Texas Secretary of State, and Election Day is Nov. 3, 11 days away. The Texas election odds page tracks the race through the vote, alongside the full election odds board. Kalshi’s rules make the Texas contracts eligible for accelerated settlement once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner.
