Alaska Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Alaska in 2026 has two genuinely interesting races and an electoral system that complicates predicting either of them. Mary Peltola, the former Democratic U.S. Representative who won Alaska's at-large House seat in a 2022 special election (becoming the first Alaska Native ever elected to Congress) and then lost it in 2024 to Republican Nick Begich III, is challenging Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Her January 2026 launch raised $8.9 million in the first quarter — a record for any Alaska Senate campaign. The open governor's race (Mike Dunleavy is term-limited) has a crowded Republican field plus three serious Democrats. Lisa Murkowski endorsed Sullivan over Peltola in this race, breaking from her past endorsements of Peltola for House. The state's nonpartisan blanket primary sends the top four to a ranked-choice general election. Alaska is the kind of state where you can't read the math by reading the partisan splits. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.
Live odds — Alaska
U.S. House districts
Alaska governor betting odds
Dunleavy is term-limited under Alaska's two-consecutive-term constitutional rule. The open seat has attracted a sprawling field.
Republican primary (August 18, 2026 nonpartisan blanket primary) — top four advance to ranked-choice general:
- Nancy Dahlstrom, current Lieutenant Governor, who lost the 2024 House race to Begich
- Dave Bronson, former Anchorage mayor (2021-2024)
- Edna DeVries, Matanuska-Susitna Borough mayor
- Shelley Hughes, former state senator
- Matt Heilala, state Medical Board member
- Click Bishop, former state senator, running with Greta Schuerch as Independent
Democratic primary field:
- Tom Begich, former state Senate Minority Leader (2019-2023), uncle of U.S. Rep. Nick Begich III
- Matt Claman, state senator
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, former state representative
The variable: Mary Peltola's decision. She had been considering both Senate and gubernatorial runs and chose Senate. Some polling suggested she would have been the strongest Democratic candidate for governor; her decision to run for Senate leaves the open governor's race more competitive in the Republican primary than the general election.
Senator Lisa Murkowski has not entirely ruled out a gubernatorial run, but her favorability cratered in 2025 after voting for the Big Beautiful Bill (over 20-point drop in net favorability per Data for Progress).
Alaska's ranked-choice voting makes general election predictions difficult. Cook rates Likely Republican.
Alaska presidential election betting odds
The last Alaska presidential vote that went Democratic was for Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024, 10 points in 2020, and 15 points in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968.
Cook PVI rates Alaska R+8. The 3 electoral votes are safe Republican for 2028. Alaska's political identity is distinct from other Republican states — over half of registered voters are unaffiliated with either major party, and both chambers of the state legislature have bipartisan ruling coalitions. Murkowski's continued tenure as a Republican who routinely breaks with the party is the most prominent expression of that identity.
Alaska senate betting odds
Dan Sullivan, in the Senate since 2015, is seeking a third term. He defeated Mark Begich (no relation to current Rep. Nick Begich III) in 2014 by 2 points and won re-election in 2020 by 13 points. Sullivan is a Trump ally on Armed Services and Environment.
Mary Peltola entered the race January 12, 2026. The Democratic challenger profile: former at-large U.S. Representative (2022-2024), first Alaska Native ever in Congress, replaced longtime Republican Don Young after his 2022 death, lost the seat in 2024 to Nick Begich III by 2 points. Her family raised in Bethel on the Kuskokwim River; subsistence fishing tradition is central to her political identity. She has joined a lobbying firm post-Congress and is running on a "Family, Fish, and Freedom" platform.
Q1 2026 fundraising: Peltola raised $8.9 million — a record for any Alaska Senate campaign. Sullivan reported $2.1 million.
Murkowski endorsement shift: Lisa Murkowski endorsed Peltola in her 2022 special election, 2022 general, and 2024 House races. For 2026, Murkowski endorsed Sullivan, citing her preference for keeping a Republican Senate majority and her 12-year working relationship with Sullivan.
Public Policy Polling (early 2026): Sullivan 46%, Peltola 45% on first-choice voting. The ranked-choice voting system means independent and minor-party candidates' rankings will matter for the final result.
Cook rates Lean Republican but acknowledges genuine competitiveness. Democrats target Alaska Senate as one of four possible flips.
Alaska house betting odds
Nick Begich III holds the seat that the late Don Young occupied for 49 years before his 2022 death. Begich (R), elected 2024 by 2 points over Peltola, is running for a second term. He is a businessman and great-nephew of former U.S. Sen. Mike Gravel; his uncle Tom Begich is running for governor in 2026.
The Democratic challenger field includes private school teacher Matthew "Bronco" Williams (running as an independent). The general election will be ranked-choice. With Peltola moved to the Senate race, Begich is likely safer than he was in 2024 — but the seat remains genuinely competitive given Alaska's split electorate.
No mid-decade redistricting in Alaska. Nonpartisan primary August 18, 2026. Ranked-choice general election November 3.