2026 Election Tracker
Colorado Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Colorado 2026 election odds for Sen. Michael Bennet's run for governor, John Hickenlooper's Senate reelection, and competitive House races, with state history.
| Electoral votes | 10 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris 54.2% / Trump 43.2% (D+11 margin) |
| Current governor | Jared Polis (D), term-limited |
| U.S. senators | Michael Bennet (D, running for governor; seat next 2028), John Hickenlooper (D, on 2026 ballot) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor (open), U.S. Senate, all 8 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+4 |
Two sitting Democrats are running for offices that almost certainly aren't seriously contested by Republicans. Senator Michael Bennet left the U.S. Senate to run for governor, an open seat created by Jared Polis's term limit. Senator John Hickenlooper is seeking a second term in the Senate seat Bennet just vacated. The Republican primary fields against both are weak by any historical Colorado measure, the state party's bench is thin enough that anonymous GOP consultants have told reporters that "they don't believe they can win." Two competitive House seats round out the federal ballot. June 30 primary. For balance-of-power and 2028 presidential markets that aren't on this page, ElectionOdds.com covers the national picture.
Is Colorado a Red State or a Blue State?
Colorado is a Democratic-leaning state that has moved sharply blue over the past 15 years, after spending most of the 20th century as a Republican stronghold. Kamala Harris carried Colorado by 11 points in 2024. Biden won it by 13.5 in 2020, Clinton by 4.9 in 2016, and Obama by 5.4 in 2012. The shift from Republican-leaning swing state to safe Democratic state is one of the most dramatic regional realignments of the past two decades. Cook PVI rates Colorado D+4.
The downballot picture is now Democratic across the board. Democrats hold the governorship under Jared Polis, who is term-limited in January 2027. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats (Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper) and 5 of 8 U.S. House seats. Democrats also hold both chambers of the state legislature with comfortable majorities. The state's transformation from purple to blue has been most visible in the suburbs of Denver, where formerly Republican-leaning Arapahoe, Jefferson, and Adams counties now vote Democratic by double-digit margins.
Colorado's voting pattern is dominated by the Front Range corridor running from Fort Collins through Boulder, Denver, and Colorado Springs to Pueblo. Denver County and Boulder County vote Democratic by overwhelming margins. The Denver suburbs (Arapahoe, Jefferson, Adams, Broomfield) have shifted Democratic over the past 20 years and now provide the bulk of the state's Democratic margin. Colorado Springs (El Paso County) remains one of the most Republican large urban areas in the country, anchored by the military bases and the evangelical community headquartered around Focus on the Family. The Western Slope and Eastern Plains vote heavily Republican but are sparsely populated.
The state's transformation was driven by migration patterns and demographic change. The Front Range has gained roughly 1.5 million residents since 2000, much of it well-educated workers in tech, aerospace, and energy who skew Democratic. The state's Latino population, roughly 22%, has been politically active and consistently votes Democratic. The legalization of recreational marijuana in 2012 reflected, rather than caused, the state's broader cultural and political shift. Colorado has 10 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Colorado stay Democratic? Probably. The structural advantages for Democrats (urban growth, suburban realignment, in-migration of young professionals) have continued through the 2024 cycle. Republicans have not held the governorship since 2007 or both U.S. Senate seats since 2010. The 2026 gubernatorial race to replace Polis will be the first major test of whether Republicans can find a candidate competitive in the new Colorado, though they will start as underdogs. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Colorado Governor Betting Odds
The basic math: Polis won 2018 by 10 points and 2022 by nearly 20. Colorado hasn't elected a Republican governor since Bill Owens's 2002 re-election. Cook rates the 2026 race Solid Democratic.
The Democratic primary is functionally a two-way contest. U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet entered in 2025 and immediately consolidated establishment support, endorsements from Hickenlooper, Denver Mayor Mike Johnston, Reps. Crow and Neguse, plus the entire Salazar family. Mid-2025 primary polling had Bennet at 53%, Weiser at 22%, undecided at 25%. AG Phil Weiser was the first major candidate in (January 2025) and is running on a record of state-level legal fights against the Trump administration. Bennet was the only candidate to petition onto the ballot directly; Weiser made it via 30%-plus at the state assembly. Bennet, if elected, would resign his Senate seat, Polis would then appoint a replacement until a special election.
The Republican field is the unusual story. Greg Lopez, a former U.S. representative who finished third in the 2022 GOP primary, was running as a Republican before leaving the party in January 2026 to run as an independent. State Sen. Mark Baisley, originally a gubernatorial candidate, switched to the U.S. Senate race. State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (Weld County, 2022 House nominee) and state Rep. Scott Bottoms are the remaining major GOP gubernatorial candidates, along with Victor Marx. Cook rates Solid Democratic. Primary June 30, 2026. A first-time mechanic: the lieutenant governor is now elected on a joint ticket with the governor, similar to Arizona's new arrangement. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Colorado Governor Election History
Colorado's governorship has been a Democratic lock for two decades, but the office was genuinely competitive within living memory. Republican Bill Owens won in 1998 and 2002, the latter by the largest margin in state history, and he remains the last Republican to hold the office. Since then Democrats have won five straight: Bill Ritter in 2006, John Hickenlooper in 2010 and 2014, and Jared Polis in 2018 and 2022.
With Polis term-limited, the 2026 race is the first open contest since 2018, and it has drawn two sitting Democratic officeholders, with Senator Michael Bennet the clear frontrunner over Attorney General Phil Weiser. The Republican bench is so depleted after a decade of statewide losses that the party is a heavy underdog. Colorado is also electing its lieutenant governor on a joint ticket with the governor for the first time, mirroring a similar change in Arizona.
Colorado Senate Betting Odds
Hickenlooper is seeking a second term after winning 2020 by 9 points over Cory Gardner, the last Republican senator from Colorado. He's a former two-term Denver mayor and two-term Colorado governor. He raised more than $1 million in Q1 2025 alone and entered the cycle with substantial cash on hand.
The Republican primary tells the bigger story. The state GOP bench is depleted after a decade of statewide losses, and Republican candidates with realistic name recognition have declined to run. Janak Joshi, a former state representative whose medical license was suspended in 2008 for "unprofessional conduct," is one of the two declared candidates. George Markert, a retired Marine Corps colonel endorsed by Tom Tancredo, is the other. Mark Baisley, the state senator who switched from the gubernatorial race, is the third major candidate. None has serious statewide profile. Cook rates Solid Democratic. Colorado uses semi-closed primaries on June 30, 2026. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Colorado U.S. Senate Election History
Colorado's Senate seats reflected its swing past before turning blue. Republican Cory Gardner won in 2014, but his 2020 loss to Democrat John Hickenlooper by 9 points made him the last Republican senator from Colorado. Michael Bennet, appointed in 2009 and elected three times since, has held the other seat through increasingly comfortable margins.
The 2026 cycle features a reshuffle: Bennet left the Senate to run for governor, and Hickenlooper is seeking a second term in his own seat against a Republican field with no serious statewide profile. Bennet's seat is not on the 2026 ballot, it next comes up in 2028, and would be filled by gubernatorial appointment if he wins the governorship. Cook rates Hickenlooper's race Solid Democratic.
Colorado House Betting Odds
Four Democrats and four Republicans share the state's 8 House seats, one of the more balanced delegations in any blue state. The marquee race is CO-8 (Adams County and northern Denver suburbs), where Republican Gabe Evans defeated incumbent Democrat Yadira Caraveo in 2024 by less than a point. CO-8 is the freshest swing district in the state and is at the top of Democratic targeting lists for 2026.
CO-3 (Western Slope) is now held by Republican Jeff Hurd, who won the seat in 2024 after Lauren Boebert moved to CO-4. Competitive on paper, less so in practice. The other six seats, three each, are essentially safe. Colorado uses an independent commission for redistricting and is not doing mid-decade map changes. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
8 marketsColorado U.S. House Election History
Colorado's House delegation is unusually balanced for a blue-leaning state, currently split 4-4, a product of the competitive map drawn by the state's voter-created independent redistricting commission after the 2020 census, which also added an eighth seat for the state's population growth.
The competitive action centers on CO-8, the newest district in the northern Denver suburbs, where Republican Gabe Evans unseated Democrat Yadira Caraveo by under a point in 2024, making it a top Democratic target for 2026. CO-3 on the Western Slope, won by Republican Jeff Hurd after Lauren Boebert moved to CO-4, is competitive on paper but less so in practice. Because the independent commission controls the map, Colorado is not part of the mid-decade redistricting wave.
Colorado Presidential Election Betting Odds
Colorado swung from purple to blue across the 2010s. Harris won by 11 points in 2024, basically matching Biden's 13.5-point margin in 2020. The state used to be in the swing-state conversation; it isn't anymore. Cook PVI rates Colorado D+4, competitive on paper, but the state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008.
The 2028 markets price it as Likely Democratic. Bennet ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020; if he wins the governor's race in 2026, that profile could re-emerge.
Colorado Presidential Election History
Colorado was a Republican-leaning state for most of the late 20th century, backing GOP nominees in most elections from 1968 through 2004. The explosive growth of the Front Range and its educated, in-migrating workforce flipped that. Barack Obama carried the state in 2008 and 2012, and Democrats have won every presidential election there since.
The margins widened from under 5 points in 2012 and 2016 to 13.5 for Biden in 2020 and 11 for Harris in 2024, moving Colorado out of the swing-state conversation entirely. Cook PVI now rates it D+4, and the markets price its 10 electoral votes as Likely Democratic for 2028. Its presidential relevance is mainly as the base of figures like Michael Bennet, who sought the 2020 nomination.
Colorado Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Colorado politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Colorado Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Colorado's races. In the open governor's race, Democratic Senator Michael Bennet leads Attorney General Phil Weiser in the primary and is heavily favored over a weak Republican field. In the Senate race, Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper faces little-known Republican opposition. The competitive House race to watch is CO-8, held by Republican Gabe Evans.
Colorado rarely produces close statewide polling anymore given its blue shift, so the meaningful number is the Democratic governor primary between Bennet and Weiser. Mid-2025 polling had Bennet up better than 2-to-1. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Colorado governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 24–25, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Michael Bennet 36% · Phil Weiser 45% · Undecided 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 1–2, 2026 | 505 (LV) | Michael Bennet 36% · Phil Weiser 30% · Undecided 34% |
| Colorado Community Research | May 22–28, 2026 | 796 (LV) | Michael Bennet 34% · Phil Weiser 41% · Undecided 25% |
| Cygnal (R) | May 7–8, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Scott Bottoms 7% · Victor Marx 42% · Barbara Kirkmeyer 13% · Undecided 38% |
| Keating Research | January 26 – February 1, 2026 | 800 (LV) | Michael Bennet 53% · Phil Weiser 26% · Undecided 21% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | June 9–11, 2025 | 600 (LV) | Michael Bennet 53% · Phil Weiser 22% · Undecided 25% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 4 hours ago.
Colorado U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Community Research | May 17–28, 2026 | 796 (LV) | Julie Gonzales 34% · John Hickenlooper 41% · Undecided 25% |
| Data for Progress (D) | February 20–25, 2026 | 739 (LV) | Julie Gonzales 13% · John Hickenlooper 45% · Other 4% · Undecided 37% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Colorado under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 4 hours ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Colorado a red state or a blue state?
Colorado is a Democratic-leaning state that has moved sharply blue over the past 15 years after a 20th-century Republican history. Harris carried it by 11 points in 2024, Democrats hold every statewide office, and Cook PVI rates it D+4.
Who is favored in the Colorado governor race?
Democratic Senator Michael Bennet, who left the Senate to run, is the heavy favorite. He leads Attorney General Phil Weiser in the primary, and the Republican bench is so depleted that GOP consultants have privately said they don't believe they can win. Cook rates it Solid Democratic.
Is John Hickenlooper's Senate seat competitive?
No. Hickenlooper, a former governor and Denver mayor, is seeking a second term against a Republican field with no serious statewide profile. Cook rates the race Solid Democratic.
Which Colorado House seats are competitive?
CO-8 in the northern Denver suburbs, where Republican Gabe Evans beat Democrat Yadira Caraveo by under a point in 2024, is the top race and a leading Democratic target. CO-3 on the Western Slope, held by Republican Jeff Hurd, is competitive on paper. Colorado uses an independent redistricting commission, so there are no mid-decade map changes.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.