Hawaii Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

The race that most Hawaii political insiders are watching in 2026 isn't for governor or U.S. Senate. It's for lieutenant governor, where Democratic Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke is facing a primary challenge from Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami while a Hawaii Attorney General investigation continues into an "influential state legislator" who allegedly accepted $35,000 in a bag. Luke hasn't been named as the target, but the investigation has hung over her since 2025, and Hawaii voters have a history of elevating lieutenant governors — both Sen. Brian Schatz and Sen. Mazie Hirono served as Lt. Gov. before reaching the Senate. Above that race, Gov. Josh Green is seeking a second term with no major primary challenger and no high-profile Republican declared. Both U.S. Senate seats are off-cycle. Two U.S. House seats are on the ballot, with the more competitive one being Ed Case's HI-1, where he faces two Democratic primary challenges. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Hawaii governor betting odds

Josh Green, an emergency-room physician and former state legislator, won the 2022 gubernatorial race by 27 points over Republican Duke Aiona — the largest gubernatorial margin in Hawaii since the early 2000s. His first term has been dominated by the Maui wildfires recovery (the August 2023 Lahaina fire, the deadliest U.S. wildfire in over a century) and the 2026 Kona Low storms that triggered a presidential disaster declaration request in March. He has remained broadly popular through both crises.

Green is seeking re-election with no significant Democratic primary challenger. No high-profile Republican has declared for the August 8 primary, though candidates have until June 2 to file. Cook rates Solid Democratic.

The under-the-radar storyline is the lieutenant governor's race, which functions as a quasi-primary for the 2030 gubernatorial open seat. Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke, a former chair of the state House Finance Committee and the South Korean immigrant story Hawaii Democrats have promoted, faces a primary challenge from Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami. The race exists in the context of an ongoing state Attorney General investigation into an unidentified "influential state legislator" who allegedly accepted $35,000 in a bag. Luke has not been named as the focus of the investigation, but the cloud has persisted since 2025. Kawakami is campaigning on Garden Isle economic experience and crisis management (the 2018 storms, COVID-era resort bubbles).

Hawaii presidential election betting odds

The last time Hawaii went Republican for president was Richard Nixon's 1972 re-election landslide. Harris won by 23 points in 2024, comparable to Biden's 29-point 2020 margin and Hillary Clinton's 32-point 2016 win. Cook PVI rates the state D+14.

The 4 electoral votes are safe Democratic for 2028. Hawaii has produced one nationally prominent recent figure — Tulsi Gabbard, the former Democratic U.S. Rep who became Trump's Director of National Intelligence in 2025 — though Gabbard's political trajectory took her outside Hawaii politics years ago. No current Hawaii politician appears in 2028 presidential conversations.

Hawaii senate betting odds

Neither Hawaii Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Brian Schatz (D), the state's senior senator and dean of the delegation, was re-elected in 2022 by 47 points and is next up in 2028. Mazie Hirono (D), the first elected female senator from Hawaii, the first Asian-American woman elected to the Senate, and the first U.S. senator born in Japan, was re-elected in 2024 by 31 points and is next up in 2030.

Hirono will be 86 in 2030. Schatz will be 56 in 2028 and is widely expected to seek re-election. No serious primary or general-election challenge is currently anticipated for either incumbent.

Hawaii house betting odds

Hawaii's two House seats are both held by Democrats. HI-1 (Ed Case, urban Honolulu) is the more competitive primary. Case, a centrist Democrat who has held the seat since 2019 (and previously 2002-2007), faces two Democratic primary challenges from state legislators Jenna Keohokalole and Della Au Belatti. The general election is essentially decided in the August Democratic primary — Republicans have not held a Hawaii House seat since 1991.

HI-2 (Jill Tokuda, the rural-islands and neighbor-island district) is running for re-election with minimal challenge. The seat was previously held by Tulsi Gabbard (2013-2021) and Kai Kahele (2021-2023). Both general elections are Solid Democratic.

No mid-decade redistricting in Hawaii. Primary August 8, 2026.