2026 Election Tracker
Idaho Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Idaho 2026 election odds for Brad Little's third gubernatorial term, Jim Risch's fourth Senate term at 82, and independent Todd Achilles' Senate run.
| Electoral votes | 4 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 67% / Harris 30% (R+37 margin) |
| Current governor | Brad Little (R), seeking third term |
| U.S. senators | Jim Risch (R, on 2026 ballot, age 82), Mike Crapo (R, next 2028) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor, U.S. Senate, all 2 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | R+18 |
Idaho's federal ballot in 2026 is, by the numbers, the most Republican in the country. Trump won the state by 37 points. Both senators are Republican. Both House members are Republican. Every statewide constitutional officer is Republican. Idaho hasn't elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 2002. The May 19, 2026 primary delivered no surprises at the federal level: Sen. Jim Risch won renomination with 67 percent of the vote with Trump's endorsement, Gov. Brad Little won his Republican primary, and Reps. Russ Fulcher (ID-1) and Mike Simpson (ID-2) both fended off primary challengers. The Democratic primaries produced Terri Pickens for governor and David Roth for Senate. The most interesting candidate on the general election ballot remains Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state representative who resigned his seat in June 2025 to run for Senate as an independent, a profile that hasn't worked in Idaho for two decades but reflects how Democrats have decided to compete in the state. Our crew here at ElectionOdds.com has all the latest Idaho election odds below.
Is Idaho a Red State or a Blue State?
Idaho is one of the reddest states in the country. Trump carried Idaho by 36.5 points in 2024, by 30.7 in 2020, and by 31.8 in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968 except for Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide. Cook PVI rates Idaho R+19. Idaho's Republican identity is rooted in a combination of conservative rural agricultural and ranching communities, a strong Mormon presence in eastern Idaho, and a substantial recent migration of conservative Americans from California, Washington, and Oregon.
The downballot picture is overwhelmingly Republican. Republicans hold the governorship under Brad Little, who won reelection by 60 points in 2022 and is up for a third term in 2026 if he chooses to run. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (Mike Crapo and Jim Risch) and both U.S. House seats. Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Idaho Democrats hold no statewide elected office and have not since 1994. The state's last Democratic governor (Cecil Andrus) left office in 1995, and its last Democratic U.S. senator (Frank Church) left office in 1981.
Idaho's voting pattern is shaped by its rural character, its Mormon population in eastern Idaho, and its rapid recent population growth. Ada County (Boise) is the largest county and the most Democratic-leaning, but still leans Republican in presidential elections. Latah County (Moscow, home of the University of Idaho) and Blaine County (Sun Valley) vote Democratic but are very small. The rest of the state, particularly the agricultural counties of eastern Idaho and the rural Panhandle, votes Republican by enormous margins. Idaho's population growth (it was the fastest-growing state in the country in 2020 and 2021) has been concentrated in Ada County and Canyon County and has been overwhelmingly Republican-leaning, as conservative Americans have relocated from coastal states.
The state's politics have been shaped by the rise of the Mormon vote in eastern Idaho, the long tradition of mountain-state libertarianism, and the recent in-migration that has pushed Idaho further right rather than diluting its conservative identity. The state's 2020 census growth gave it more political weight nationally. Idaho has 4 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Idaho become competitive? No, not on any realistic horizon. The state's Republican margins are growing rather than shrinking, and the in-migration pattern is reinforcing its conservative identity rather than challenging it. Democratic competitiveness would require something close to a national political realignment. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Idaho Governor Betting Odds
Brad Little, a fourth-generation Idaho rancher and former lieutenant governor, won the office in 2018 by 21 points and was re-elected in 2022 by 41, both wins under Idaho's modern political alignment. He has been broadly considered a center-right Republican governor: pragmatic on policy, willing to break with the more populist wing on issues like education funding, but rarely confrontational with Trump or the national party. Idaho has no gubernatorial term limits.
Little won the May 19, 2026 Republican primary against multiple challengers, none of whom had the statewide profile to seriously threaten him. The Democratic primary went to attorney Terri Pickens with about 65 percent of the vote. Pickens, a Boise-area attorney, is the first Democrat in a generation to win a gubernatorial primary running an explicitly affordability-focused campaign rather than the activist-progressive platform Democrats have tried in recent cycles. The general election is still a formality: Cook rates Solid Republican.
Idaho's most politically interesting recent dynamic has been the rightward drift of the state Republican Party itself, with the Idaho GOP increasingly distinct from the more moderate governor wing. Little's primary contests have reflected that tension but he has won them comfortably. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Idaho Governor Election History
Idaho's governorship has been Republican for three decades. Democrat Cecil Andrus, the only four-term governor in state history and a former U.S. Interior Secretary, left office in 1995 and remains the last Democrat to hold it. Republicans Phil Batt, Dirk Kempthorne, Jim Risch, Butch Otter, and Brad Little have followed in unbroken succession.
Little, a fourth-generation rancher, won in 2018 by 21 points and in 2022 by 41, and is seeking a third term in a state with no term limits. He won his May 2026 primary comfortably despite the Idaho GOP's rightward drift away from his more moderate wing, and faces Democrat Terri Pickens in a general election Cook rates Solid Republican.
Idaho Senate Betting Odds
Risch is 82 years old, in his third Senate term, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Trump-endorsed (Trump made the endorsement in March 2025, well ahead of the primary). He won the May 19, 2026 Republican primary with 67.3 percent of the vote against three challengers: Josh Roy (14.3 percent), Joe Evans (14.1 percent), and Denny LaVe (4.4 percent). None were considered serious threats heading into the primary.
The Democratic primary was won by David Roth, the 2022 Senate nominee, with 61.9 percent of the vote. Brad Moore finished second at 31.1 percent and Nickolas Bonds took 7 percent. Roth lost to Sen. Mike Crapo in 2022 by a 61-to-29 margin, and the 2026 general election will be even tougher: he faces Risch on the Republican line, Libertarian Matt Loesby, and two independents.
The general-election independent getting the most national attention is Todd Achilles, an Army veteran and former state representative who resigned his Idaho House seat in June 2025, as a Democrat, to run for Senate as an independent. Achilles has framed his campaign around concerns about U.S. military intervention abroad, religious freedom, and the policy direction of the second Trump administration. He has challenged Risch to a series of public debates. Natalie Fleming is the other independent on the November ballot. Both face the structural challenge that Idaho's independent statewide vote has not exceeded 10 percent since the 1970s. Risch will turn 83 before the November election and would be 89 at the end of a fourth term. Cook rates Solid Republican. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Idaho U.S. Senate Election History
Idaho's Senate seats have been Republican since Frank Church, the last Democrat, lost in 1980. Mike Crapo has held one seat since 1999 and Jim Risch the other since 2009, both winning re-election by overwhelming margins. Risch now chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
At 82 and Trump-endorsed, Risch won renomination with 67 percent in May 2026 and is favored for a fourth term against Democrat David Roth and independent Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state representative running outside the party. Idaho's statewide independent vote has not topped 10 percent since the 1970s, and Cook rates the race Solid Republican.
Idaho House Betting Odds
Both Idaho House seats are safely Republican. ID-1 (Russ Fulcher, northern Idaho including Coeur d'Alene) won his May 19 Republican primary with 78.1 percent against Joseph Morrison (11.3 percent) and Andy Briner (10.6 percent). He faces Democratic nominee Kaylee Peterson (87.1 percent of the Dem primary vote) in November. ID-2 (Mike Simpson, eastern Idaho including Idaho Falls) also won his Republican primary and is now running for a 15th term as the dean of the Idaho delegation.
Both general elections will be no-contest. The Democratic primary candidates for both seats have low name recognition and minimal fundraising. Idaho has not had a competitive House race since the 2006 cycle. No mid-decade redistricting in Idaho. Primary May 19, 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
2 marketsIdaho U.S. House Election History
Idaho's two House seats have both been Republican for years, the last competitive race coming in 2006. The northern, Panhandle-anchored ID-1 and the eastern ID-2 are both safely red, with the GOP's only real contests coming in primaries rather than general elections.
Both incumbents won renomination in May 2026: Russ Fulcher in ID-1 and Mike Simpson in ID-2, the dean of the delegation now seeking a 15th term. Their Democratic challengers have little name recognition or money, the general elections are not competitive, and Idaho did not pursue mid-decade redistricting.
Idaho Presidential Election Betting Odds
Idaho is one of three states where Trump's 2024 margin exceeded 35 points, only West Virginia and Wyoming gave him bigger wins. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968 except for LBJ's 1964 win. Cook PVI rates Idaho R+18. For 2028, the 4 electoral votes are safe Republican.
No Idaho politician currently appears in 2028 presidential markets. Idaho's congressional delegation has produced few national-profile figures, Larry Craig, Mike Crapo, and Jim Risch have served long Senate tenures without significant presidential ambition.
Idaho Presidential Election History
Idaho is among the most reliably Republican states in presidential politics, voting GOP in every election since 1968 except Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide. Its lean is rooted in rural ranching country, a strong eastern-Idaho Mormon population, and heavy in-migration of conservatives from coastal states that has pushed it further right rather than diluting it.
Trump's margins have run around 30 points and reached 36.5 in 2024, trailing only West Virginia and Wyoming. Cook PVI rates the state R+18, and its 4 electoral votes are safely Republican. The state produces few national figures, its long-serving senators have largely avoided presidential ambition, so it stays out of the 2028 conversation.
Idaho Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Idaho politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Idaho Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Idaho's races, though the May 19 primary produced no federal surprises and the state is the most Republican on the map. Gov. Brad Little seeks a third term against Democrat Terri Pickens, and 82-year-old Sen. Jim Risch a fourth, with the most-watched challenger being independent Todd Achilles rather than Democrat David Roth.
Idaho produces essentially no competitive general-election polling given its R+18 to R+19 lean, so the question is simply whether any challenger can crack the structural ceiling, Idaho's statewide independent vote has not topped 10 percent since the 1970s. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Idaho governor polls
No Idaho governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Idaho U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Insights (R) | June 6–7, 2026 | 500 (LV) | Jim Risch (R) 55% · David Roth (D) 15% · Todd Achilles (I) 7% · Other 7% · Undecided 14% |
| The Bullfinch Group | May 29 – June 1, 2026 | 774 (RV) | Jim Risch (R) 41% · David Roth (D) 15% · Todd Achilles (I) 18% · Undecided 25% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | March 16–17, 2026 | 639 (RV) | Jim Risch (R) 48% · Todd Achilles (I) 34% · Undecided 18% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Idaho under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 3 hours ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Idaho a red state or a blue state?
Idaho is one of the reddest states in the country. Trump carried it by about 36.5 points in 2024, behind only West Virginia and Wyoming, Republicans hold every statewide and federal office, and Cook PVI rates it R+18 to R+19.
Is Brad Little favored for a third term?
Yes, overwhelmingly. Little won his 2022 race by 41 points, faces no term limits, and won his May 2026 primary comfortably despite the Idaho GOP's rightward drift. He faces Democrat Terri Pickens, and Cook rates the race Solid Republican.
Who is challenging Jim Risch for Senate?
Risch, 82 and Trump-endorsed, won renomination with 67%. He faces Democrat David Roth and, drawing the most national attention, independent Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state representative. Idaho's independent statewide vote has not topped 10% since the 1970s, and Cook rates the race Solid Republican.
Are any Idaho House seats competitive?
No. Both seats are safely Republican, held by Russ Fulcher (ID-1) and Mike Simpson (ID-2), who is seeking a 15th term. Idaho has not had a competitive House race since 2006, and the state did not redistrict mid-decade.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.