Maine Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Susan Collins is the only Republican U.S. senator from a state Kamala Harris won. That single fact has made Maine the most expensive non-presidential race of 2026, and the structural variable that could determine control of the Senate. The Democratic side of that race shifted dramatically in late April when Gov. Janet Mills suspended her Senate campaign — she had launched in October 2025 with national party backing, but struggled to gain traction against oyster farmer Graham Platner, a Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren-endorsed populist newcomer with controversial old Reddit posts and a Sanders-style economic message. Platner is now the de facto Democratic nominee. Mills, term-limited from running for governor again, leaves an open gubernatorial race that includes U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, the Trump-district Democrat whose ME-2 seat is one of the most competitive House races in the country. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Maine governor betting odds

Term limits are why Janet Mills is leaving the governor's office in January 2027. Mills, the former Maine Attorney General and first woman elected governor of the state, won 2018 by 8 points and re-elected in 2022 by 13. Maine's two-term constitutional limit prevents her from seeking a third consecutive term — a constraint that became politically relevant in October 2025 when she launched a Senate campaign against Collins, and again in late April 2026 when she suspended that campaign and left both her gubernatorial term-limit and the Senate path behind.

Democratic primary (June 9, 2026) — the de facto general election:

• U.S. Rep. Jared Golden (ME-2, serving since 2019), the Blue Dog Democrat who has held a Trump-district seat through three cycles. He represents the more conservative half of the state and would be a centrist Democratic nominee.
• Troy Jackson, former state Senate president, the labor-aligned progressive option.
• Shenna Bellows, current Secretary of State, known nationally for her 2023 ruling that disqualified Trump from the Maine primary ballot under the 14th Amendment (later overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court).

Republican primary: No major figure has declared. Maine has not elected a Republican governor since Paul LePage's 2010 and 2014 wins. The general election dynamics favor whoever wins the Democratic primary — but Maine's ranked-choice voting system and split electorate make the margin difficult to predict.

Cook rates Likely Democratic.

Maine presidential election betting odds

Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that split electoral votes by congressional district — and ME-2 has flipped between the parties in three of the last four presidential cycles. Harris won Maine statewide by 7 points in 2024, but Trump won ME-2 (the 2nd congressional district, rural and northern Maine) by 9 points — giving Trump one of Maine's 4 electoral votes through the state's congressional-district allocation system.

Cook PVI rates Maine D+2 statewide. ME-2 is R+6. The state's 2 at-large electoral votes are Likely Democratic. The 2nd district's 1 electoral vote is Lean Republican. For 2028, that ME-2 electoral vote is a competitive target for both parties — Trump carried it in 2016, lost it in 2020, and won it again in 2024.

Maine senate betting odds

The race that could decide Senate control. Susan Collins, in her fifth term, is the longest-serving woman in Senate history and the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. She has won every cycle since 1996 — even when the Maine presidential vote went Democratic — through a brand of bipartisanship that has produced increasingly thin margins. Her favorability is now underwater (38% favorable, 57% unfavorable in March 2026 Emerson polling).

Democratic primary (June 9, 2026): Graham Platner, an oyster farmer from Penobscot Bay, has effectively cleared the field after Mills's April suspension. Platner won endorsements from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, built a small-dollar grassroots fundraising operation, and represents a generational and ideological break from the institutional Democratic Senate playbook. His vulnerabilities — old Reddit posts including comments downplaying sexual assault, criticism of police and rural Americans — were the central Mills campaign attack and will become the central Republican attack in the general election.

Emerson polling (March 2026): Platner leads Collins 52-35 among women. Collins's overall favorability: 38/57.

Maine uses ranked-choice voting in federal elections, which historically benefits non-Republican candidates in close races. The 2024 election was the first in which Maine had ranked-choice voting at the presidential level.

Cook rates the race a toss-up. National Democratic strategy treats this as the single most important Senate race of 2026.

Maine house betting odds

Jared Golden's decision to run for governor leaves ME-2 open and immediately moves it onto every national list of competitive 2026 House races. The district covers northern and rural Maine, voted Trump+9 in 2024, and is currently held by a Democrat only because Golden's centrist Blue Dog brand has held the rural working-class electorate. National Democrats and Republicans are both heavily targeting ME-2.

ME-1 (Chellie Pingree, southern Maine including Portland) is safely Democratic — Pingree has held the seat since 2009 and won 2024 by 18 points.

Maine uses ranked-choice voting for House elections. No mid-decade redistricting. Primary June 9, 2026.