Massachusetts Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Massachusetts politics this year has one thing nobody saw coming a year ago: a real Senate primary. Eighty-year-old Ed Markey is running for a third full term and facing a serious challenge from Rep. Seth Moulton of Salem, who has made Markey's age the explicit centerpiece of his campaign. The race has tightened since November. On the gubernatorial side, Maura Healey is running for re-election with limited drama. The state's 9 House seats include Moulton's MA-6, which opens up if his Senate bid fails or succeeds. Below all of that, the September 1 primary date sits unusually late — barely two months before the general — which gives challengers limited time to build statewide profiles. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Massachusetts governor betting odds

Maura Healey is running for a second term alongside Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll. Healey was the first woman elected governor of Massachusetts and the first openly lesbian governor of any state when she won in 2022 by 23 points over Republican Geoff Diehl. Massachusetts has no gubernatorial term limits. No major Democrat is challenging her in the primary.

The Republican primary is a four-way race that has not generated much heat. Brian Shortsleeve leads at 21% in the Suffolk/Globe poll, with Mike Kennealy and Mike Minogue trailing. The most interesting outside name is former Republican governor Charlie Baker, who served from 2015 to 2023 and is now president of the NCAA. Baker has been mentioned in speculation but has not entered. 46% of voters say Healey deserves re-election according to recent polling, with the rest split between "deserves to be replaced" and undecided.

Cook rates the race Solid Democratic. Primary September 1, 2026.

Massachusetts presidential election betting odds

Massachusetts has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988. Harris won by 24.7 points in 2024 — a slight rightward shift from Biden's 33-point margin in 2020 but still one of the most Democratic states in the country. Cook PVI rates Massachusetts at D+15, putting it with the safest Democratic states in any presidential calculation.

For 2028, Massachusetts is not competitive at the presidential level. Sen. Elizabeth Warren ran for president in 2020 and appears in long-shot 2028 Democratic primary markets but has not signaled interest. Gov. Maura Healey is also mentioned in early 2028 markets, though Massachusetts governors rarely run successful national campaigns (Mitt Romney being the recent exception).

Massachusetts senate betting odds

This is the most interesting primary in New England. Ed Markey, who will be 80 by Election Day 2026, is running for a third full term. He's served continuously in Congress since 1976 — first in the House for 36 years, then in the Senate after winning a 2013 special election. His main challenger is Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem), a former Marine officer and four-term U.S. Representative who has built much of his campaign around age limits in Congress. Moulton has publicly supported a constitutional amendment establishing an age cap for federal office.

The polling is the story. Markey's lead has been narrowing for five consecutive surveys. The most recent Emerson poll (May 3-4, 2026) showed Markey 37%, Moulton 32%, with 29% undecided. The Suffolk/Globe poll in November 2025 showed Markey 45-22. UNH's April poll had Markey leading but still under 50%. Markey leads registered Democrats by 13 points but trails Moulton by 6 points among unenrolled voters — and Massachusetts has more unenrolled (independent) voters than registered Democrats.

A persistent secondary storyline: Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston) has been the subject of speculation but has not entered. Hypothetical polling showed her running essentially even with Markey if she did, suggesting a real generational appetite for change. Markey's campaign has refused to engage Moulton in formal debates, drawing criticism. William F. Gates Jr. (a professor and architect) and Alex Rikleen are also in the Democratic primary, each polling around 1%.

The Republican nominee will likely be John Deaton, an attorney who lost to Elizabeth Warren in 2024 by about 20 points. Massachusetts has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Scott Brown's 2010 special election (and he lost in 2012 to Elizabeth Warren). The general election is Lean to Solid Democratic regardless of the primary winner.

Primary September 1, 2026.

Massachusetts house betting odds

Massachusetts has 9 House seats, all currently held by Democrats — one of the few all-Democratic state delegations in the country. The Republican Party has not held a Massachusetts House seat since 1996.

The most significant 2026 dynamic is MA-6 (Salem, North Shore), which will be open if Seth Moulton wins the Senate primary on September 1. Moulton has held the seat since 2014. Multiple state legislators and local officials have begun positioning for a possible open primary, though the late primary date complicates traditional campaign timelines. If Moulton loses the Senate primary, he could in theory still file for re-election to MA-6, but the filing deadlines may not allow it.

No mid-decade redistricting in Massachusetts. The state's congressional map was drawn by the Democratic-controlled legislature in 2021 with limited drama, since the state has had a consistent 9-0 Democratic delegation for a decade.

Ballot measures: Massachusetts voters will likely face statewide ballot questions on reducing the state income tax from 5% to 4% by 2029 (Emerson polling shows 62% support) and a potential top-two primary system (50% support).