2026 Election Tracker
Massachusetts Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Massachusetts 2026 election odds for Maura Healey's reelection and the rare Senate primary, with Rep. Seth Moulton challenging 80-year-old Sen. Ed Markey.
| Electoral votes | 11 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris 61.2% / Trump 36.5% (D+24.7 margin) |
| Current governor | Maura Healey (D), running for re-election |
| U.S. senators | Ed Markey (D, on 2026 ballot), Elizabeth Warren (D, next 2030) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor, U.S. Senate, all 9 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+15 |
Massachusetts politics this year has one thing nobody saw coming a year ago: a real Senate primary. Eighty-year-old Ed Markey is running for a third full term and facing a serious challenge from Rep. Seth Moulton of Salem, who has made Markey's age the explicit centerpiece of his campaign. The race has tightened since November. On the gubernatorial side, Maura Healey is running for re-election with limited drama. The state's 9 House seats include Moulton's MA-6, which opens up if his Senate bid fails or succeeds. Below all of that, the September 1 primary date sits unusually late, barely two months before the general, which gives challengers limited time to build statewide profiles. You will find Election Odds for all races in Massachusetts on ElectionOdds.com.
Is Massachusetts a Red State or a Blue State?
Massachusetts is one of the bluest states in the country at the presidential level, but has a strong tradition of electing moderate Republican governors. Kamala Harris carried Massachusetts by 25 points in 2024. Biden won it by 33.5 in 2020, Clinton by 27.2 in 2016, and Obama by 23.2 in 2012. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988. Cook PVI rates Massachusetts D+15. Massachusetts is the only state to have voted for George McGovern in the 1972 presidential election, a fact that Massachusetts liberals still cite with pride.
The downballot picture is more complicated than the presidential numbers suggest. Democrats hold the governorship under Maura Healey, who won by 29 points in 2022. But from 1991 through 2007 and from 2015 through 2023, the state had a Republican governor. Mitt Romney, Bill Weld, Paul Cellucci, Jane Swift, and Charlie Baker all held the office during stretches when the rest of state government was overwhelmingly Democratic. Massachusetts has a Republican governor tradition that exists nowhere else in the deep blue states, built around moderate, business-friendly fiscal conservatism paired with social moderation. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats (Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey) and all 9 U.S. House seats.
Massachusetts's voting pattern is dominated by Boston and the surrounding metro area. Suffolk County (Boston), Middlesex County (Cambridge), and Norfolk County (the western Boston suburbs) vote Democratic by large margins. The state's western counties (Hampshire, Hampden, Berkshire) anchored by the Pioneer Valley and the cultural towns of Northampton and Amherst vote heavily Democratic. The Cape and Islands, along with the southeastern counties (Bristol, Plymouth), are the most Republican parts of the state but still lean Democratic. There is essentially no rural Republican zone large enough to be competitive statewide.
The state's politics are shaped by its high education levels (Massachusetts has the highest share of college graduates of any state), its large higher-education sector, and its concentration of biotechnology and finance industries. Charlie Baker, the last Republican governor, left office in 2023 with the highest approval rating of any governor in the country. The Republican governor tradition has weakened since his departure, with the 2022 race producing a 29-point Democratic win for Healey. Massachusetts has 11 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Massachusetts become competitive? No, not at the presidential or congressional level. The state's structural Democratic advantages are too large. The Republican governor tradition may yet revive in 2026 or 2030 if Republicans can find another Baker-style candidate, but the state has not voted Republican for president since 1984 and is unlikely to in 2028. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Massachusetts Governor Betting Odds
Maura Healey is running for a second term alongside Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll. Healey was the first woman elected governor of Massachusetts and the first openly lesbian governor of any state when she won in 2022 by 23 points over Republican Geoff Diehl. Massachusetts has no gubernatorial term limits. No major Democrat is challenging her in the primary.
The Republican primary is a four-way race that has not generated much heat. Brian Shortsleeve leads at 21% in the Suffolk/Globe poll, with Mike Kennealy and Mike Minogue trailing. The most interesting outside name is former Republican governor Charlie Baker, who served from 2015 to 2023 and is now president of the NCAA. Baker has been mentioned in speculation but has not entered. 46% of voters say Healey deserves re-election according to recent polling, with the rest split between "deserves to be replaced" and undecided. Cook rates the race Solid Democratic. Primary September 1, 2026. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Massachusetts Governor Election History
Massachusetts is famous for a paradox: one of the bluest states in the country routinely elects Republican governors. After Democrat Michael Dukakis left office in 1991, Republicans Bill Weld, Paul Cellucci, Jane Swift, and Mitt Romney held the office continuously until 2007, all moderates who paired fiscal conservatism with social moderation as a check on the Democratic legislature. Democrat Deval Patrick then served two terms, followed by Republican Charlie Baker from 2015 to 2023, who left with the highest approval rating of any governor in the country.
Maura Healey reclaimed the office for Democrats in 2022, winning by 29 points over Trump-endorsed Republican Geoff Diehl and becoming the first woman elected governor of Massachusetts and the first openly lesbian governor in the nation. She is favored for a second term in 2026 against a low-wattage Republican field, and Cook rates the race Solid Democratic. Whether the state's Republican-governor tradition revives depends on whether the GOP can find another Baker-style moderate.
Massachusetts Senate Betting Odds
This is the most interesting primary in New England. Ed Markey, who will be 80 by Election Day 2026, is running for a third full term. He's served continuously in Congress since 1976, first in the House for 36 years, then in the Senate after winning a 2013 special election. His main challenger is Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem), a former Marine officer and four-term U.S. Representative who has built much of his campaign around age limits in Congress. Moulton has publicly supported a constitutional amendment establishing an age cap for federal office.
The polling is the story. Markey's lead has been narrowing for five consecutive surveys. The most recent Emerson poll (May 3-4, 2026) showed Markey 37%, Moulton 32%, with 29% undecided. The Suffolk/Globe poll in November 2025 showed Markey 45-22. UNH's April poll had Markey leading but still under 50%. Markey leads registered Democrats by 13 points but trails Moulton by 6 points among unenrolled voters, and Massachusetts has more unenrolled (independent) voters than registered Democrats.
A persistent secondary storyline: Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston) has been the subject of speculation but has not entered. Hypothetical polling showed her running essentially even with Markey if she did, suggesting a real generational appetite for change. Markey's campaign has refused to engage Moulton in formal debates, drawing criticism. William F. Gates Jr. (a professor and architect) and Alex Rikleen are also in the Democratic primary, each polling around 1%.
The Republican nominee will likely be John Deaton, an attorney who lost to Elizabeth Warren in 2024 by about 20 points. Massachusetts has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Scott Brown's 2010 special election (and he lost in 2012 to Elizabeth Warren). The general election is Lean to Solid Democratic regardless of the primary winner. Primary September 1, 2026. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
Massachusetts U.S. Senate Election History
Massachusetts Senate seats have been Democratic strongholds, most famously Ted Kennedy's, which he held from 1962 until his death in 2009. The lone modern Republican interruption came when Scott Brown won a 2010 special election to fill Kennedy's seat, a national shock, before losing it to Elizabeth Warren in 2012. Ed Markey won the other seat in a 2013 special election after John Kerry became secretary of state.
Markey turned back a high-profile 2020 primary challenge from Joe Kennedy III, and in 2026 he faces another serious intraparty fight, this time from Rep. Seth Moulton, who has made Markey's age the centerpiece. Polling has tightened steadily, and with Massachusetts having more unenrolled voters than registered Democrats, the open primary electorate makes it genuinely competitive. The general election is safely Democratic regardless of who wins.
Massachusetts House Betting Odds
Massachusetts has 9 House seats, all currently held by Democrats, one of the few all-Democratic state delegations in the country. The Republican Party has not held a Massachusetts House seat since 1996.
The most significant 2026 dynamic is MA-6 (Salem, North Shore), which will be open if Seth Moulton wins the Senate primary on September 1. Moulton has held the seat since 2014. Multiple state legislators and local officials have begun positioning for a possible open primary, though the late primary date complicates traditional campaign timelines. If Moulton loses the Senate primary, he could in theory still file for re-election to MA-6, but the filing deadlines may not allow it.
No mid-decade redistricting in Massachusetts. The state's congressional map was drawn by the Democratic-controlled legislature in 2021 with limited drama, since the state has had a consistent 9-0 Democratic delegation for a decade. Ballot measures: Massachusetts voters will likely face statewide ballot questions on reducing the state income tax from 5% to 4% by 2029 (Emerson polling shows 62% support) and a potential top-two primary system (50% support). See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
9 marketsMassachusetts U.S. House Election History
Massachusetts has one of the few all-Democratic House delegations in the country, with all nine seats blue and no Republican having held a Massachusetts House seat since 1996. The Democratic-controlled legislature drew the current map in 2021 with little drama, since there was no Republican seat to protect or target.
The 2026 wrinkle is MA-6 on the North Shore, held by Seth Moulton since 2014, which opens if he wins the Senate primary, and possibly even if he loses, depending on filing deadlines. A crowd of state legislators and local officials is already positioning for a potential open seat, complicated by the unusually late September 1 primary. The rest of the delegation is safely Democratic, and no mid-decade redistricting is in play.
Massachusetts Presidential Election Betting Odds
Massachusetts has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988. Harris won by 24.7 points in 2024, a slight rightward shift from Biden's 33-point margin in 2020 but still one of the most Democratic states in the country. Cook PVI rates Massachusetts at D+15, putting it with the safest Democratic states in any presidential calculation.
For 2028, Massachusetts is not competitive at the presidential level. Sen. Elizabeth Warren ran for president in 2020 and appears in long-shot 2028 Democratic primary markets but has not signaled interest. Gov. Maura Healey is also mentioned in early 2028 markets, though Massachusetts governors rarely run successful national campaigns (Mitt Romney being the recent exception).
Massachusetts Presidential Election History
Massachusetts is among the most Democratic states in presidential politics and has voted that way in every election since 1988. It holds a singular distinction: in 1972 it was the only state to vote for Democrat George McGovern over Richard Nixon, a fact Massachusetts liberals still cite with pride. The margins have been consistently lopsided, from the low 20s to Biden's 33-point win in 2020.
Harris carried the state by about 25 points in 2024, a slight narrowing from 2020 but still one of the largest Democratic margins anywhere. The 11 electoral votes are safely Democratic and uncontested, and for 2028 no forecast treats Massachusetts as competitive. Its presidential relevance is as a source of candidates, though Massachusetts governors have a notoriously poor record running for the White House.
Massachusetts Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Massachusetts politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Massachusetts Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Massachusetts's races. The headline is the Democratic Senate primary, where 80-year-old incumbent Ed Markey faces a tightening challenge from Rep. Seth Moulton, who has made age limits his central theme. In the governor's race, Democratic incumbent Maura Healey faces a low-key Republican field led by Brian Shortsleeve.
The Senate primary is the number to watch: the most recent Emerson poll had Markey ahead just 37-32 with 29 percent undecided, and because Massachusetts has more unenrolled voters than registered Democrats, the open-primary electorate matters enormously. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Massachusetts governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | June 8–12, 2026 | 500 (LV) | Maura Healey (D) 56% · Mike Minogue (R) 31% · Other 1% · Undecided 11% |
| Suffolk University | May 26–29, 2026 | 465 (LV) | Brian Shortsleeve 13% · Mike Minogue 45% · Other 1% · Undecided 40% |
| Polity Research Consulting | April 19 – May 7, 2026 | 608 (RV) | Maura Healey (D) 58% · Mike Minogue (R) 31% · Undecided 11% |
| Polity Research Consulting | April 19 – May 7, 2026 | 608 (RV) | Maura Healey (D) 59% · Brian Shortsleeve (R) 30% · Undecided 11% |
| University of New Hampshire | April 16–20, 2026 | 599 (LV) | Maura Healey (D) 52% · Mike Minogue (R) 32% · Undecided 15% |
| University of New Hampshire | April 16–20, 2026 | 603 (LV) | Maura Healey (D) 51% · Brian Shortsleeve (R) 29% · Other 3% · Undecided 17% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 4 hours ago.
Massachusetts U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | June 8–12, 2026 | 500 (LV) | Ed Markey (D) 55% · John Deaton (R) 30% · Other 1% · Undecided 14% |
| Suffolk University | June 8–12, 2026 | 500 (LV) | Seth Moulton (D) 54% · John Deaton (R) 26% · Other 2% · Undecided 18% |
| 270toWin | April 15–May 7, 2026 | Ed Markey 43.3% · Seth Moulton 31.7% · Alex Rikleen 3.5% · Undecided 21.5% | |
| Emerson College | May 3-4, 2026 | 451 (LV) | Ed Markey 37% · Seth Moulton 32% · Alex Rikleen 1% · Other 1% · Undecided 29% |
| University of New Hampshire | April 16–20, 2026 | 353 (LV) | Ed Markey 46% · Seth Moulton 33% · Alex Rikleen 6% · Undecided 15% |
| University of New Hampshire | April 16–20, 2026 | 603 (LV) | Ed Markey (D) 55% · John Deaton (R) 32% · Other 1% · Undecided 12% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Massachusetts under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 4 hours ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Massachusetts a red state or a blue state?
Massachusetts is one of the bluest states at the presidential level, but it has a strong tradition of electing moderate Republican governors. Harris carried it by 25 points in 2024 and Cook PVI rates it D+15, yet Republicans held the governorship for most of 1991-2023.
Why is the Massachusetts Senate primary competitive?
Eighty-year-old incumbent Ed Markey faces Rep. Seth Moulton, who has made congressional age limits the centerpiece of his challenge. Markey's lead has narrowed for five straight polls, to 37-32 in the latest Emerson survey, and Massachusetts's large unenrolled-voter bloc makes the open primary genuinely close.
Is Maura Healey favored for re-election?
Yes. Healey won in 2022 by 29 points, faces no major Democratic primary challenger, and leads a low-wattage Republican field. Cook rates the race Solid Democratic.
What happens to MA-6 if Seth Moulton wins the Senate primary?
His North Shore House seat would open, and several state legislators and local officials are already positioning for it, though the late September 1 primary complicates the timeline. If Moulton loses, filing deadlines may not allow him to run for re-election to the House.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.