Michigan Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Michigan is the most complex state on the 2026 map. Three statewide races are essentially open — an open governor's race, an open Senate race, and a presidential battleground that's now decided by single digits in every cycle. Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited after eight years. Gary Peters is retiring after two Senate terms. And former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a lifelong Democrat, is running as an independent for governor in a move that has the potential to scramble both major parties' math. Add in a House delegation with two genuine swing seats, and you have one of the most consequential state ballots of the cycle. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Michigan governor betting odds

Whitmer's eight-year run has been a Democratic high point in Michigan, with two double-digit wins (9.6 points in 2018, 10.5 points in 2022) in a state that has otherwise been decided by single digits at the federal level. With her term-limited, the 2026 race opens up on both sides.

On the Democratic side, the path narrowed in January when Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist exited the governor's race to run for Secretary of State instead. That leaves Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson as the consensus frontrunner, with Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson as the main alternative. Benson has the better statewide profile (she's been Secretary of State since 2019 and a national figure in election administration circles) and the early fundraising lead.

On the Republican side, the field is crowded. Rep. John James (Michigan's 10th District, won Senate races against Stabenow in 2018 and Peters in 2020 before flipping to the House in 2022) is the closest thing to an establishment frontrunner. State Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt and former House Speaker Tom Leonard offer different Republican lanes. Former Attorney General Mike Cox is also in. Trump has not endorsed.

The wild card is Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who left the Democratic Party to run as an independent. Duggan is a three-term mayor of the largest city in the state with strong cross-party appeal, and his presence could pull enough Democratic-leaning voters in the metro to make the general competitive in unexpected ways. Markets are pricing the Democratic nominee as the favorite but with much more uncertainty than the usual blue-state governor's race. Primary August 4, 2026.

Michigan presidential election betting odds

Michigan has voted with the winner of every presidential election since 1992 except 2016, when Trump narrowly carried it. The margins have been tiny — Trump by 0.2 in 2016, Biden by 2.8 in 2020, Trump by 1.4 in 2024. The state's role as a Rust Belt indicator is essentially permanent at this point.

For 2028, Michigan markets draw activity from two directions. Senator Elissa Slotkin, who won the 2024 Senate race by 0.3 points against Mike Rogers, has emerged as a national Democratic figure and is mentioned in long-shot 2028 markets. The state itself is one of the three Rust Belt states (with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) that any winning presidential coalition almost certainly needs. Cook PVI rates Michigan at R+1, essentially the national average, making it as competitive a presidential market as exists in the country.

Michigan senate betting odds

This is the other open seat created in 2025 alongside Illinois — and it's drawing more national attention because Trump won Michigan in 2024. Gary Peters, who chaired the DSCC for two cycles and helped Democrats hold the Senate in 2022, announced his retirement on January 28, 2025, after two terms.

The Democratic primary is genuinely three-way and arguably more interesting than the Republican side. Rep. Haley Stevens (suburban Detroit, formerly a chief of staff in the Obama auto industry task force) has the establishment lane — quietly backed by Schumer and the DSCC. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow (Royal Oak) got national attention in 2022 with a Senate floor speech defending herself against a Republican colleague's smears; she has Sen. Elizabeth Warren's endorsement and led Q1 2026 fundraising. Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County health director and 2018 gubernatorial candidate, has Bernie Sanders' endorsement and is running explicitly to El-Sayed's left. Lt. Gov. Gilchrist passed on this race too.

On the Republican side, Mike Rogers is back. Rogers, the former U.S. Representative and FBI agent, lost the 2024 Senate race to Slotkin by 0.3 points — about 19,000 votes. He has Trump's endorsement and no serious primary challenger. The general election will essentially be a referendum on whether Michigan's 2024 swing toward Trump persists into a midterm. Recent polling from late April had Rogers leading Stevens and McMorrow by single digits within the margin of error, suggesting a real toss-up.

Primary August 4, 2026.

Michigan house betting odds

Michigan has 13 House seats, currently split 7 Democrats to 6 Republicans. The map was drawn by Michigan's voter-created independent redistricting commission in 2022 — one of the more competitive maps in the country. No mid-decade redistricting is happening in Michigan; the commission structure makes it essentially impossible.

The competitive races are MI-3 (Hillary Scholten, D-Grand Rapids — held a narrow seat in 2024), MI-7 (Tom Barrett, R-Lansing — flipped from Democratic hands in 2024 in one of the closest races in the country), and MI-8 (Kristen McDonald Rivet, D-Saginaw/Bay City — a new face who won an open seat in 2024). These three districts will likely decide whether Michigan's delegation shifts in either direction.

The August 4 primary, top-of-the-ticket dynamics (open governor and Senate), and the Duggan independent factor all create unusual cross-pressures in suburban Detroit and Grand Rapids districts that prediction markets are still pricing in.