2026 Election Tracker
Michigan Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Michigan 2026 election odds for the open governor race after Whitmer, Gary Peters' open Senate seat, Mike Duggan's independent bid, and all 13 House districts.
| Electoral votes | 15 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 49.7% / Harris 48.3% (R+1.4 margin) |
| Current governor | Gretchen Whitmer (D), term-limited |
| U.S. senators | Elissa Slotkin (D, next 2030), Gary Peters (D, retiring) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor (open), U.S. Senate (open), all 13 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | R+1 |
Michigan is the most complex state on the 2026 map. Three statewide races are essentially open, an open governor's race, an open Senate race, and a presidential battleground that's now decided by single digits in every cycle. Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited after eight years. Gary Peters is retiring after two Senate terms. And former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a lifelong Democrat, is running as an independent for governor in a move that has the potential to scramble both major parties' math. Add in a House delegation with two genuine swing seats, and you have one of the most consequential state ballots of the cycle. We cover all these Michigan election races on ElectionOdds.com with Election Odds for all of them.
Is Michigan a Red State or a Blue State?
Michigan is a swing state with a Democratic lean. Democrats have won six of the last eight presidential elections in Michigan, but three of those wins came by less than 3 points. Trump carried Michigan by 1.4 points in 2024, recapturing it after losing it to Biden by 2.8 in 2020. He had also won it by 0.2 in 2016, the narrowest state margin of that cycle. Cook PVI rates Michigan EVEN, the most genuinely competitive PVI rating in the country.
The state's downballot map favors Democrats. Governor Gretchen Whitmer won reelection by 11 points in 2022 and is term-limited in January 2027. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats, the state House, and the state Senate. The state has been one of the most aggressive in Democratic policy-making since 2023, with reproductive-rights protections, automatic voter registration, and labor-friendly legislation all enacted by the Democratic trifecta.
Michigan's voting pattern is shaped by a sharp geographic divide. Detroit and Wayne County, the largest in the state, vote heavily Democratic. Oakland County (Detroit suburbs) and Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) have moved sharply Democratic over the past two decades. The rest of the state, particularly the Upper Peninsula and the rural counties of the Lower Peninsula, has moved sharply Republican. Macomb County, once a Democratic stronghold and the original home of the "Reagan Democrat" voter, has gone Republican in each of the past three presidential elections. The state's Arab American population, concentrated in Dearborn and the rest of Wayne County, became a major story in 2024 when discontent over Biden administration Middle East policy contributed to lower Democratic turnout in those communities. Trump's improved performance in Wayne County was a key factor in his statewide win. Whether that shift holds in 2028 will depend on the national environment and the eventual Democratic nominee.
Michigan has 15 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Michigan stay competitive? Yes. The Detroit suburbs, the Arab American vote, and the white working-class counties of the central Lower Peninsula are all moving in different directions, which keeps the state perpetually close. Polymarket prices Michigan as one of the most competitive 2028 presidential states. The 2026 gubernatorial race to replace Whitmer is also expected to be competitive. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Michigan Governor Betting Odds
Whitmer's eight-year run has been a Democratic high point in Michigan, with two double-digit wins (9.6 points in 2018, 10.5 points in 2022) in a state that has otherwise been decided by single digits at the federal level. With her term-limited, the 2026 race opens up on both sides.
On the Democratic side, the path narrowed in January when Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist exited the governor's race to run for Secretary of State instead. That leaves Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson as the consensus frontrunner, with Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson as the main alternative. Benson has the better statewide profile (she's been Secretary of State since 2019 and a national figure in election administration circles) and the early fundraising lead.
On the Republican side, the field is crowded. Rep. John James (Michigan's 10th District, won Senate races against Stabenow in 2018 and Peters in 2020 before flipping to the House in 2022) is the closest thing to an establishment frontrunner. State Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt and former House Speaker Tom Leonard offer different Republican lanes. Former Attorney General Mike Cox is also in. Trump has not endorsed.
The wild card is Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who left the Democratic Party to run as an independent. Duggan is a three-term mayor of the largest city in the state with strong cross-party appeal, and his presence could pull enough Democratic-leaning voters in the metro to make the general competitive in unexpected ways. Markets are pricing the Democratic nominee as the favorite but with much more uncertainty than the usual blue-state governor's race. Primary August 4, 2026. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
2 marketsMichigan Governor Election History
Michigan's governorship alternated cleanly between the parties for decades, with each holding it for two full terms before losing it: Republican John Engler from 1991 to 2003, Democrat Jennifer Granholm from 2003 to 2011, Republican Rick Snyder from 2011 to 2019, and now Democrat Gretchen Whitmer. For most of that span, voters elected governors from the opposite party of the sitting president, making the office a kind of counterweight.
Whitmer broke part of that pattern, winning in 2018 by 9.6 points and re-election in 2022 by 10.5, unusually large margins for a state otherwise decided by single digits. With her term-limited in January 2027, 2026 is a wide-open race on both sides, further scrambled by Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan's independent candidacy. Democrat Jocelyn Benson is the early favorite, but the markets price far more uncertainty than a typical Democratic-leaning state, in keeping with Michigan's genuine swing status.
Michigan Senate Betting Odds
This is the other open seat created in 2025 alongside Illinois, and it's drawing more national attention because Trump won Michigan in 2024. Gary Peters, who chaired the DSCC for two cycles and helped Democrats hold the Senate in 2022, announced his retirement on January 28, 2025, after two terms.
The Democratic primary is genuinely three-way and arguably more interesting than the Republican side. Rep. Haley Stevens (suburban Detroit, formerly a chief of staff in the Obama auto industry task force) has the establishment lane, quietly backed by Schumer and the DSCC. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow (Royal Oak) got national attention in 2022 with a Senate floor speech defending herself against a Republican colleague's smears; she has Sen. Elizabeth Warren's endorsement and led Q1 2026 fundraising. Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County health director and 2018 gubernatorial candidate, has Bernie Sanders' endorsement and is running explicitly to El-Sayed's left. Lt. Gov. Gilchrist passed on this race too.
On the Republican side, Mike Rogers is back. Rogers, the former U.S. Representative and FBI agent, lost the 2024 Senate race to Slotkin by 0.3 points, about 19,000 votes. He has Trump's endorsement and no serious primary challenger. The general election will essentially be a referendum on whether Michigan's 2024 swing toward Trump persists into a midterm. Recent polling from late April had Rogers leading Stevens and McMorrow by single digits within the margin of error, suggesting a real toss-up. Primary August 4, 2026. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Senate primary
2 marketsMichigan U.S. Senate Election History
Michigan's Senate seats were Democratic for a generation under Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow, but recent races have been far closer. When Stabenow retired in 2024, Democrat Elissa Slotkin held the seat by just 0.3 points over Republican Mike Rogers, one of the closest Senate results in the country, even as Trump carried the state.
The other seat is open in 2026 after two-term Democrat Gary Peters, a former DSCC chair, announced his retirement. The Democratic primary is a genuine three-way contest among Haley Stevens, Mallory McMorrow, and Abdul El-Sayed, while Rogers returns as the Trump-backed Republican favorite. Late-April polling showed Rogers within the margin of error against the leading Democrats, making it a true toss-up and a referendum on whether Michigan's 2024 rightward shift holds into a midterm.
Michigan House Betting Odds
Michigan has 13 House seats, currently split 7 Democrats to 6 Republicans. The map was drawn by Michigan's voter-created independent redistricting commission in 2022, one of the more competitive maps in the country. No mid-decade redistricting is happening in Michigan; the commission structure makes it essentially impossible.
The competitive races are MI-3 (Hillary Scholten, D-Grand Rapids, held a narrow seat in 2024), MI-7 (Tom Barrett, R-Lansing, flipped from Democratic hands in 2024 in one of the closest races in the country), and MI-8 (Kristen McDonald Rivet, D-Saginaw/Bay City, a new face who won an open seat in 2024). These three districts will likely decide whether Michigan's delegation shifts in either direction.
The August 4 primary, top-of-the-ticket dynamics (open governor and Senate), and the Duggan independent factor all create unusual cross-pressures in suburban Detroit and Grand Rapids districts that prediction markets are still pricing in. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
7 marketsMichigan U.S. House Election History
Michigan's House delegation became dramatically more competitive after voters created an independent redistricting commission by ballot measure in 2018, ending decades of legislature-drawn maps. The commission's 2022 lines produced one of the fairest maps in the country, and the delegation has sat near even, currently 7 Democrats to 6 Republicans, ever since.
Because the commission controls the map, Michigan is immune to the mid-decade partisan redraws reshaping Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina. The competition instead runs through three genuine swing seats: MI-3 around Grand Rapids, MI-7 around Lansing (flipped to Republican Tom Barrett in 2024), and MI-8 around Saginaw. With an open governor and Senate race atop the ticket and Duggan's independent bid in the mix, those districts carry unusual cross-pressures the markets are still working to price.
Michigan Presidential Election Betting Odds
Michigan has voted with the winner of every presidential election since 1992 except 2016, when Trump narrowly carried it. The margins have been tiny, Trump by 0.2 in 2016, Biden by 2.8 in 2020, Trump by 1.4 in 2024. The state's role as a Rust Belt indicator is essentially permanent at this point.
For 2028, Michigan markets draw activity from two directions. Senator Elissa Slotkin, who won the 2024 Senate race by 0.3 points against Mike Rogers, has emerged as a national Democratic figure and is mentioned in long-shot 2028 markets. The state itself is one of the three Rust Belt states (with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) that any winning presidential coalition almost certainly needs. Cook PVI rates Michigan at R+1, essentially the national average, making it as competitive a presidential market as exists in the country.
Michigan Presidential Election History
Michigan anchored the Democratic "blue wall" from 1992 through 2012, voting Democratic in six straight presidential elections, before Trump cracked it in 2016 by just 0.2 points, the narrowest margin in the country that year and the first Republican presidential win in the state since 1988. Biden won it back by 2.8 points in 2020, and Trump carried it again by 1.4 in 2024.
Those razor-thin results have made Michigan a permanent Rust Belt bellwether, one of the trio of states, with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that nearly every winning national coalition must carry. Cook PVI rates it EVEN, essentially the national average. Its 15 electoral votes are contested as heavily as any in the country, and the markets treat it as a core 2028 battleground whose Arab American vote and Detroit-suburb turnout could swing it either way.
Michigan Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Michigan politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Other markets
Michigan Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Michigan's three open statewide contests. In the governor's race you will see Democrat Jocelyn Benson, the Republican field led by John James, and independent Mike Duggan. In the open Senate race, the three-way Democratic primary among Haley Stevens, Mallory McMorrow, and Abdul El-Sayed against Republican Mike Rogers.
Michigan is one of the closest states in the country, so watch the Detroit suburbs (Oakland, Macomb), the Arab American vote in Wayne County, and the Grand Rapids area, all moving in different directions. Late-April polling showed Rogers within the margin of error in the Senate race. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Michigan governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic National (R) | June 10–14, 2026 | 500 (LV) | Mike Cox 12% · John James 24% · Perry Johnson 27% · Aric Nesbitt 6% · Undecided 31% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | June 9–14, 2026 | 175 (LV) | Mike Cox 20% · John James 38% · Perry Johnson 10% · Aric Nesbitt 3% · Other 5% · Undecided 24% |
| Mitchell Research | June 11–13, 2026 | 404 (LV) | Mike Cox 27% · John James 28% · Perry Johnson 23% · Aric Nesbitt 4% · Undecided 18% |
| Tarrance Group (R) | June 1–4, 2026 | 500 (LV) | Mike Cox 22% · John James 38% · Perry Johnson 26% · Aric Nesbitt 12% · Undecided 2% |
| 270toWin | May 12 – June 1, 2026 | Mike Cox 19.5% · John James 31.5% · Perry Johnson 21% · Aric Nesbitt 5% · Undecided 23% | |
| RealClearPolitics | April 11 – May 23, 2026 | Mike Cox 14.8% · John James 30% · Perry Johnson 20.8% · Aric Nesbitt 5% · Undecided 29.4% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 4 hours ago.
Michigan U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin | May 20 – June 14, 2026 | Abdul El-Sayed 31.7% · Mallory McMorrow 9.3% · Haley Stevens 29.3% · Undecided 29.7% | |
| RealClearPolitics | May 20 – June 14, 2026 | Abdul El-Sayed 31.7% · Mallory McMorrow 9.3% · Haley Stevens 29.3% · Undecided 29.7% | |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | June 9–14, 2026 | 205 (LV) | Abdul El-Sayed 22% · Mallory McMorrow 9% · Haley Stevens 20% · Undecided 49% |
| 270toWin | May 20 – June 14, 2026 | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 45% · Mike Rogers (R) 42% · Other/ Undecided 13% | |
| Zenith Research (D) | June 11–14, 2026 | 602 (LV) | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 45% · Mike Rogers (R) 42% · Undecided 13% |
| 270toWin | May 20 – June 14, 2026 | Mallory McMorrow (D) 43.3% · Mike Rogers (R) 43.7% · Other/ Undecided 13% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 4 hours ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Michigan a red state or a blue state?
Michigan is a swing state with a Democratic lean. Democrats have won six of the last eight presidential elections there, but Trump carried it by 1.4 points in 2024, and Cook PVI rates it EVEN, the most genuinely competitive rating in the country.
Why are both the governor and a Senate seat open in 2026?
Governor Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited after eight years, and Senator Gary Peters is retiring after two terms. Both open seats, plus a presidential-battleground lean, make Michigan one of the most consequential ballots of the cycle.
How does Mike Duggan's independent run affect the governor race?
Duggan, the three-term Detroit mayor and lifelong Democrat, is running as an independent. With strong cross-party appeal in the metro, he could pull Democratic-leaning voters and scramble both parties' math, adding unusual uncertainty to a race the markets still favor the Democratic nominee to win.
Is the Michigan Senate race competitive?
Yes. Republican Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race by just 0.3 points, is back with Trump's endorsement, and late-April polling showed him within the margin of error against the leading Democrats. It is rated a genuine toss-up.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.