2026 Election Tracker
Missouri Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Missouri 2026 election odds for all 8 House seats under the new map carving up Emanuel Cleaver's MO-5 district, plus a possible November referendum and history.
| Electoral votes | 10 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 58.5% / Harris 40.1% (R+18.4 margin) |
| Current governor | Mike Kehoe (R), elected 2024, next 2028 |
| U.S. senators | Josh Hawley (R, next 2030), Eric Schmitt (R, next 2028) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | All 8 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | R+11 |
Missouri's 2026 federal ballot has no statewide races. The governor, both senators, and the rest of the state's executive offices were either just elected or won't be on the ballot until 2028. What remains is a redistricting fight that the Missouri Supreme Court resolved one day ago, on May 12, 2026, and the answer was that the new Republican map stays in effect for the August primary, despite a referendum campaign that collected more than 300,000 signatures. The new map carves up Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based 5th District, the seat Cleaver has held since 2005, and is designed to flip the Missouri delegation from 6R-2D to 7R-1D. All eight House seats are on the ballot. The referendum may still appear in November and we will have Election Odds for all of this on ElectionOdds.com.
Is Missouri a Red State or a Blue State?
Missouri is a red state, after spending nearly a century as one of the country's most reliable presidential bellwethers. Trump carried Missouri by 18.5 points in 2024, by 15.4 in 2020, and by 18.6 in 2016. The state voted Republican in every presidential election from 2000 through 2024. From 1904 through 2004, Missouri voted for the winner of every presidential election except one (1956), the longest bellwether streak in American political history. That streak ended in 2008, and Missouri has continued to drift further right ever since. Cook PVI rates Missouri R+10.
The downballot picture is solidly Republican. Republicans hold the governorship under Mike Kehoe, who took office in January 2025. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (Josh Hawley and Eric Schmitt), every statewide elected office, and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The state's U.S. House delegation became 7R-1D after the 2025 mid-decade redistricting eliminated one of the Kansas City-area Democratic seats. The lone remaining Democratic seat is the St. Louis-based 1st District held by Cori Bush.
Missouri's voting pattern is built on its two-metro structure with deep rural Republican strength. St. Louis City and St. Louis County vote Democratic, as does Jackson County (Kansas City). The St. Louis suburbs in St. Charles County have shifted Republican over the past two decades. The Springfield area (Greene County) and rural southern Missouri (the Ozarks) vote Republican by enormous margins. Northern Missouri and the Bootheel in the southeast have also shifted decisively Republican since 2008.
The state's recent redistricting fight produced one of the most aggressive mid-decade maps of the 2025-2026 cycle. The Republican-controlled legislature drew lines targeting Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-anchored 5th District, splitting Black neighborhoods across multiple districts. The map survived initial state court challenges, though a November 2026 veto referendum could overturn it after the election. Missouri has 10 electoral votes through 2030. The state's political weight in national elections has diminished as it has lost its swing-state status.
Will Missouri become competitive again? Not in the near term. The structural factors driving Missouri's rightward shift (rural realignment, suburban realignment in St. Charles County, working-class realignment) are durable. Democrats have not seriously competed for the state at the presidential level since 2008. A Democrat winning Missouri statewide would require either a dramatic shift in the national environment or a Republican implosion. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Missouri Governor Betting Odds
There is no governor race in 2026. The next Missouri gubernatorial election is in 2028. Mike Kehoe was elected governor in November 2024 with 60% of the vote, succeeding term-limited Republican Mike Parson. Kehoe previously served as Lt. Governor from 2018 to 2025 and as a state senator before that. His current term runs through January 2029.
Kehoe became central to the redistricting story when he called the August 2025 special session that produced the new map. See all states with elections to be the next governor.
Missouri Governor Election History
Missouri's governorship was competitive into the 2010s but has been firmly Republican since. Democrat Jay Nixon won two terms beginning in 2008 and remains the last Democrat to hold the office, term-limited out in 2016. Republican Eric Greitens won that year but resigned in 2018 amid scandal, elevating Lt. Gov. Mike Parson, who won a full term in 2020. Mike Kehoe, Parson's lieutenant governor, won the open 2024 race by about 20 points.
No Democrat has won any Missouri statewide race since Auditor Nicole Galloway's 2018 re-election, and none has won the governorship since Nixon. There is no governor's race in 2026; Kehoe is not up until 2028. He became central to the cycle's defining story when he called the 2025 special session that produced the aggressive new congressional map.
Missouri Senate Betting Odds
Neither Missouri Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Sen. Eric Schmitt (elected 2022) is next up in 2028. Sen. Josh Hawley (elected 2018, re-elected 2024) is next up in 2030.
Hawley's role in the redistricting fight is the more notable Missouri Senate story in 2026. Hawley publicly opposed the legal arguments the state used to keep the new map in effect after the People Not Politicians referendum group submitted 300,000 signatures. Hawley argued in court filings that allowing a law to take effect while a referendum is pending would "destroy the referendum process," a stance that put him at odds with the Republican governor and state legislative leaders. The Missouri Supreme Court ruled May 12, 2026 against Hawley's position. See more about the election odds for all senate seats here.
Missouri U.S. Senate Election History
Missouri's Senate seats were competitive within the past 15 years but are now solidly Republican. Democrat Claire McCaskill held one seat for two terms before losing to Josh Hawley in 2018, and the other seat passed from Republican Roy Blunt to Eric Schmitt in 2022. Both are now firmly in Republican hands.
Neither seat is on the 2026 ballot, Schmitt is up in 2028 and Hawley in 2030. The notable 2026 Senate story is Hawley's unexpected break with his own party over the redistricting fight: he argued in court that letting the new map take effect while a referendum was pending would gut the referendum process, a stance the Missouri Supreme Court rejected on May 12. The markets treat both seats as safely Republican.
Missouri House Betting Odds
This is the entire 2026 Missouri story, the different election odds for house seats in the state. The new "Missouri First Map" was signed September 28, 2025 after a special session called by Gov. Kehoe at Trump's direct request. The map targets the 5th Congressional District held by Democrat Emanuel Cleaver of Kansas City. Cleaver, the city's first Black mayor and a U.S. Representative since 2005, saw his Kansas City district carved up: Black-majority neighborhoods in Kansas City were redistributed into surrounding Republican districts, while heavily Republican rural areas stretching east toward Boone County were added to what remains of the 5th. The new 5th would stretch 180 miles southeast from Cleaver's home church in Kansas City to a rural United Methodist church in Vienna, Missouri. The map is designed to flip Missouri's House delegation from 6R-2D to 7R-1D. The remaining Democratic seat is MO-1 in St. Louis, held by Rep. Wesley Bell, drawn under Voting Rights Act compliance rules.
The referendum fight: Opponents organized as People Not Politicians and submitted 300,000 signatures on December 9, 2025, exceeding the threshold required to trigger a veto referendum. Under the Missouri Constitution, laws subject to referendum are suspended until voters approve them. The new map's effective date was December 11, 2025. The legal question was whether signature submission alone is enough to suspend the law, or whether the Secretary of State must first certify the signatures. Multiple court rulings went against the referendum campaign. On March 24, 2026, the Missouri Supreme Court ruled that Kehoe had authority to call the special session and that the legislature could revise districts mid-decade. A March 27 trial court ruling kept the map in effect during signature verification. And yesterday, May 12, 2026, the Missouri Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the new map will be used in the August 4, 2026 primary, even with the referendum signatures still being verified. The court reasoned that it was uncertain whether the referendum would qualify for the ballot.
If the referendum does qualify, it appears on the November 2026 ballot, running alongside the elections that were already conducted under the new map. Polling has been close: a February SLU/YouGov poll found 44% of Missourians oppose the map, 41% support it. The pro-referendum campaign has raised $6.3 million; the pro-map PAC Put Missouri First has raised $3.1 million. Cleaver has announced he will run regardless of district shape. The August 4 primary now determines whether Cleaver, or whoever wins the new 5th, represents the district in 2027. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
8 marketsMissouri U.S. House Election History
Missouri's House delegation sat at 6 Republicans and 2 Democrats for most of the decade, the Democratic seats anchored in the two big metros: Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based 5th and the St. Louis-based 1st. Republican legislatures drew the maps but had preserved both urban Democratic districts through the 2021 cycle.
That changed in 2025, when, at Trump's request, Missouri Republicans drew one of the most aggressive mid-decade maps in the country, carving up Cleaver's 5th to target a 7-1 delegation and splitting Black Kansas City neighborhoods into surrounding Republican districts. A People Not Politicians referendum drive gathered 300,000 signatures, but the Missouri Supreme Court ruled on May 12, 2026 that the new map governs the August primary regardless. The referendum may still reach the November ballot, leaving the delegation's final shape unresolved even as the election proceeds.
Missouri Presidential Election Betting Odds
Missouri has voted Republican in all of the presidential elections since 2000, ending its decades-long status as one of America's premier bellwether states. Trump won Missouri by 18.4 points in 2024, by 15 in 2020, and by 18 in 2016. The state is now solidly Republican and rated R+11 by Cook.
For 2028, Missouri's 10 electoral votes are safe Republican. Sen. Josh Hawley, who has been a leading Trump ally in the Senate, appears occasionally in 2028 Republican vice presidential markets. He has not signaled interest in higher office.
Missouri Presidential Election History
For most of the 20th century, Missouri was the nation's premier presidential bellwether, voting for the winner in every election from 1904 through 2004 except one (1956), the longest such streak in American history. Both parties treated it as a must-watch barometer of the national mood.
That era ended abruptly. Missouri narrowly backed John McCain in 2008 even as Obama won nationally, and since then the margins have widened sharply, to roughly 18 points for Trump in 2016 and 2024. The state lost its swing-state status and its national attention along with it. The 10 electoral votes are safely Republican, and for 2028 no forecast treats Missouri as competitive.
Missouri Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Missouri politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Missouri Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Missouri's House races, the state's only federal contests this cycle. The central fight is in the redrawn MO-5, where longtime Democrat Emanuel Cleaver runs in a Kansas City district reshaped to favor Republicans, while Democrat Wesley Bell holds the St. Louis-based MO-1. There is no governor or Senate race this cycle.
Missouri's real 2026 story is the redistricting referendum, not head-to-head polling. A February SLU/YouGov poll found Missourians split 44-41 against the new map, so watch whether the People Not Politicians referendum qualifies for the November ballot. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Missouri governor polls
No Missouri governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Missouri U.S. Senate polls
No Missouri U.S. Senate polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Missouri a red state or a blue state?
Missouri is a red state, after nearly a century as the nation's premier presidential bellwether. Trump carried it by about 18 points in 2024, Republicans hold every statewide office and both Senate seats, and Cook PVI rates it R+10.
Are there any statewide races in Missouri in 2026?
No. There is no governor race (Mike Kehoe was elected in 2024) and no Senate race (Schmitt is up in 2028, Hawley in 2030). The only federal contests are the eight U.S. House seats.
What is the Missouri redistricting fight about?
At Trump's request, Missouri Republicans drew a new "Missouri First Map" in 2025 carving up Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based 5th District to flip the delegation from 6R-2D to 7R-1D. A People Not Politicians referendum gathered 300,000 signatures, but the Missouri Supreme Court ruled on May 12, 2026 that the new map governs the August primary.
Why did Josh Hawley oppose the redistricting?
Hawley argued in court filings that letting the new map take effect while a referendum was pending would "destroy the referendum process," putting him at odds with the Republican governor and legislature. The Missouri Supreme Court ruled against his position on May 12, 2026.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.