Nebraska Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Nebraska's primary was yesterday. Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts won his nomination over four primary challengers, setting up the general election story that is genuinely the most interesting Nebraska Senate race in a generation. The independent candidate, Dan Osborn, came within 7 points of beating Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024 and is running again — as an independent endorsed by the Nebraska Democratic Party. Osborn has until August 3 to gather signatures for the general election ballot. Gov. Jim Pillen also won his Republican primary yesterday against five challengers and will run for a second term. Three House seats, all Republican-held, but NE-2 is the marquee race — Don Bacon holds a district Trump has lost in his last two presidential elections, and Democrats see it as an essential pickup target. The state's electoral vote rules give NE-2 its own electoral vote, the only one of the state's five that has gone Democratic in recent presidential elections. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Nebraska governor betting odds

Pillen, a veterinarian and hog farming executive, won the 2022 gubernatorial primary by 1.3 points and the general election by 25 over Democrat Carol Blood. His first term has been marked by a focus on property tax reform and education policy, with some friction with the state's more populist Republican wing. Yesterday's primary (May 12, 2026) saw him win the GOP nomination against five challengers, including medicinal cannabis activist Jacy Todd.

The Democratic primary nominated former state Sen. and 2018 Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial nominee Lynne Walz. She faces an uphill challenge — Nebraska has not elected a Democratic governor since Ben Nelson's 1994 win (which Nelson held through one term before becoming senator). Cook rates Solid Republican.

Nebraska presidential election betting odds

Nebraska splits its electoral votes by congressional district — one of only two states to do so (Maine being the other). Statewide, Trump won by 21 points in 2024. NE-1 (Lincoln area, central Nebraska) and NE-3 (rural western Nebraska) went heavily to Trump. NE-2 (Omaha) went to Harris by 4.5 points, becoming the second consecutive cycle that the Omaha-based district voted Democratic for president. NE-2's electoral vote was decisive in both 2020 and 2024 in determining whether Biden/Harris reached 270.

Cook PVI rates Nebraska R+11 statewide, but NE-2 is essentially even. For 2028, the state's 5 electoral votes will likely split 4-1 again — and Republican-aligned strategists have floated changing Nebraska to a winner-take-all system, which would require legislative action that Democrats have so far been able to block.

Nebraska senate betting odds

Pete Ricketts is the heir to the TD Ameritrade fortune, the son of Joe Ricketts, and a former two-term governor (2015-2023). He was appointed to the Senate in January 2023 to fill Ben Sasse's vacated seat after Sasse left to become president of the University of Florida; he won the 2024 special election by 23 points; he's now running for a full six-year term.

Yesterday's primary: Ricketts defeated Todd Knobel, Eric Mortimore, Debb Axtell Schultz, and Mac Stevens. Trump endorsed Ricketts. He raised $4.8 million in cash on hand by April.

General election story: Dan Osborn, a former Kellogg's mechanic and labor leader, ran against Deb Fischer in 2024 as an independent and lost by 6.7 points. He's running again — as an independent, not on the Democratic primary ballot — and the Nebraska Democratic Party has endorsed him for the general election. The Democratic primary was contested but irrelevant: state party chair Jane Kleeb accused one of the Democratic primary candidates, pastor William Forbes, of being a "Ricketts plant." Forbes denied it. Cindy Burbank, who won the Dem primary, has said she will back Osborn for the general.

Osborn has until August 3, 2026 to gather sufficient signatures to appear on the November ballot as an independent. He has raised $3.8 million in 2026.

The Osborn-Ricketts general election is the structural surprise of the 2026 Senate map. Ricketts is a billionaire son of a billionaire; Osborn is a working-class mechanic running on labor populism. The Cook rating is currently Likely Republican but the underlying dynamics — an unpopular Republican-incumbent state in a midterm — could compress the margin.

Nebraska house betting odds

Nebraska's three House seats are all Republican-held. The marquee race is NE-2, the Omaha-area district held by Republican Don Bacon since 2017. Trump lost NE-2 in 2020 and again in 2024, but Bacon has won re-election five times — his 2024 margin was just 1.7 points. Democrats consider NE-2 their most reliable swing-district pickup target nationally.

Democratic primary for NE-2 yesterday: state Sen. John Cavanaugh vs. political organizer Denise Powell. Cavanaugh would be the candidate Republicans most prefer to face (as a state senator, he'd be replaced by gubernatorial appointment — a Republican). Powell has no state legislative seat. The primary outcome — being reported as we publish — determines Bacon's November opponent.

NE-1 (Mike Flood, Lincoln) and NE-3 (Adrian Smith, western Nebraska) are safely Republican. Flood won 2024 by 24 points; Smith by 51.

No mid-decade redistricting in Nebraska. Bacon's primary opponents were minimal. The general election is November 3, 2026.