2026 Election Tracker
Nebraska Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Nebraska 2026 election odds for Sen. Pete Ricketts vs independent Dan Osborn, Jim Pillen's reelection, and Don Bacon's competitive NE-2 House race in Omaha.
| Electoral votes | 5 (split by congressional district) |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 60% / Harris 39% statewide; NE-2 went to Harris |
| Current governor | Jim Pillen (R), seeking second term |
| U.S. senators | Pete Ricketts (R, on 2026 ballot), Deb Fischer (R, next 2030) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor, U.S. Senate, all 3 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | R+11 |
Nebraska held its primary on May 12, 2026. Sen. Pete Ricketts won the Republican nomination with over 80 percent, setting up a general election against independent labor leader Dan Osborn that is genuinely the most interesting Nebraska Senate race in a generation. Osborn came within 7 points of beating Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024 and is running again, as an independent endorsed by the Nebraska Democratic Party, which nominated Cindy Burbank to back him. Osborn has until August 3 to gather signatures for the general election ballot. Gov. Jim Pillen won his Republican primary with over 75 percent against five challengers and faces Democrat Lynne Walz, a former state senator from Fremont, in November. NE-2 is the marquee House race, but it's now an open seat. Republican Don Bacon announced in 2025 he wouldn't seek a sixth term, leaving the Omaha-area district as a top Democratic pickup target. Omaha City Council member Brinker Harding won the GOP primary and faces Democrat Denise Powell, who narrowly defeated state Sen. John Cavanaugh in a six-candidate Democratic primary. The state's electoral vote rules give NE-2 its own electoral vote, the only one of the state's five that has gone Democratic in recent presidential elections. Our Election Odds on ElectionOdds.com will give you a good idea of who will win each race in Nebraska.
Is Nebraska a Red State or a Blue State?
Nebraska is a deeply red state at the statewide level but has one notable Democratic feature: the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District, which sometimes awards an electoral vote to Democrats. Trump carried Nebraska by 20.5 points statewide in 2024, but Kamala Harris won the 2nd District by 4.7 points, picking up one electoral vote. Biden also won the 2nd District in 2020, picking up an electoral vote then. The state has voted Republican in every statewide presidential vote since 1968 except for Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide. Cook PVI rates Nebraska R+13 statewide. Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that split electoral votes by congressional district.
The downballot picture is overwhelmingly Republican. Republicans hold the governorship under Jim Pillen, who won by 36 points in 2022. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (Pete Ricketts and Deb Fischer) and all 3 U.S. House seats, including the 2nd District held by Republican Don Bacon despite the district voting Democratic for president. Nebraska's legislature is officially nonpartisan and unicameral (the only one in the country), but its membership is overwhelmingly Republican-leaning. Democrats have not held the Nebraska governorship since 1999 or both U.S. Senate seats since the 1970s.
Nebraska's voting pattern is shaped by its agricultural economy and the contrast between Omaha and the rest of the state. Douglas County (Omaha) is the only consistently Democratic-leaning area of Nebraska. Lancaster County (Lincoln) is competitive at the federal level but tilts Republican statewide. The rest of the state votes Republican by overwhelming margins, often exceeding 70-30 in rural counties. The state's 2nd Congressional District, which encompasses most of Omaha and immediate suburbs, has become a target of Democratic resources every four years because of the available electoral vote.
The state's congressional-district electoral vote allocation has been the subject of repeated Republican efforts to switch back to winner-take-all, most recently in 2024 when Trump publicly pressured the Nebraska legislature to do so. The effort failed when one Republican senator refused to provide the deciding vote. The 2nd District has now awarded an electoral vote to Democrats in three of the last five presidential elections (Obama 2008, Biden 2020, Harris 2024). Nebraska has 5 electoral votes total, allocated as 2 statewide plus 1 per congressional district.
Will Nebraska become competitive at the statewide level? No. The state's Republican identity is durable. The 2nd District will remain a small but real Democratic prize at the presidential level, and Republican-led efforts to eliminate the split-vote system will continue. The 2026 cycle includes a competitive 2nd District U.S. House race between Bacon and Democratic challengers. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Nebraska Governor Betting Odds
Pillen, a veterinarian and hog farming executive, won the 2022 gubernatorial primary by 1.3 points and the general election by 25 over Democrat Carol Blood. His first term has been marked by a focus on property tax reform and education policy, with some friction with the state's more populist Republican wing. He won the May 12, 2026 Republican primary with over 75 percent of the vote against five challengers, including Sheila Korth-Focken, Gary Rogge, medicinal cannabis activist Jacy Todd, Sal Holguin, and John Walz.
The Democratic primary went to former state Sen. Lynne Walz of Fremont with over 90 percent against a lone challenger, Air Force veteran Larry Marvin. Walz served almost a decade in the Nebraska Legislature representing District 15. She faces an uphill general election challenge, Nebraska has not elected a Democratic governor since Ben Nelson's 1994 win (which Nelson held through one term before becoming senator). Cook rates Solid Republican. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Nebraska Governor Election History
Nebraska's governorship has been Republican for a generation. Democrat Ben Nelson won in 1990 and was re-elected by a landslide in 1994, but his exit in 1999, after which he went on to the U.S. Senate, ended Democratic control. Republicans Mike Johanns, Dave Heineman, Pete Ricketts, and Jim Pillen have held the office continuously since, and Nelson remains the last Democrat to win statewide office in Nebraska.
Pillen, a veterinarian and hog-farming executive, won in 2022 by 25 points and is seeking a second term. He took over 75 percent of the May 2026 Republican primary and faces Democrat Lynne Walz, a former state senator from Fremont who has out-raised recent Democratic nominees. Even so, Cook rates the race Solid Republican given the state's lean.
Nebraska Senate Betting Odds
Pete Ricketts is the heir to the TD Ameritrade fortune, the son of Joe Ricketts, and a former two-term governor (2015-2023). He was appointed to the Senate in January 2023 to fill Ben Sasse's vacated seat after Sasse left to become president of the University of Florida; he won the 2024 special election by 23 points; he's now running for a full six-year term.
Republican primary (May 12, 2026): Ricketts won with over 80 percent, easily defeating Todd Knobel, Eric Mortimore, Debb Axtell Schultz, and Mac Stevens. Trump endorsed Ricketts, who had $4.8 million in cash on hand heading into April. Democratic primary (May 12, 2026): Omaha pharmacy technician Cindy Burbank won with roughly 90 percent over pastor William Forbes. Forbes drew attention from state party chair Jane Kleeb, who publicly accused him of being a "Ricketts plant" designed to split the opposition vote, a claim Forbes denied. Burbank has said she will back independent Dan Osborn in the general election rather than mount a competing campaign.
General election story: Dan Osborn, a former Kellogg's mechanic and labor leader, ran against Deb Fischer in 2024 as an independent and lost by 6.7 points. He's running again as an independent, with the Nebraska Democratic Party effectively standing aside to clear his lane. Osborn has until August 3, 2026 to gather sufficient signatures to appear on the November ballot as an independent. He has raised $3.8 million in 2026. The Osborn-Ricketts general election is the structural surprise of the 2026 Senate map. Ricketts is a billionaire son of a billionaire; Osborn is a working-class mechanic running on labor populism. The Cook rating is currently Likely Republican but the underlying dynamics, an unpopular Republican-incumbent state in a midterm, could compress the margin. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
Nebraska U.S. Senate Election History
Nebraska's Senate seats have been Republican since Ben Nelson, the last Democrat, retired in 2013. Deb Fischer has held one seat since 2013, and Pete Ricketts, the former two-term governor, was appointed to the other in 2023 to fill Ben Sasse's vacancy and won a 2024 special election to keep it.
Ricketts's 2026 bid for a full term is unexpectedly watched because of independent Dan Osborn, a labor leader who came within 7 points of Fischer in 2024 and is running again with the state Democratic Party clearing his lane. The matchup pits a billionaire incumbent against a working-class populist; Cook rates it Likely Republican, but the dynamics could compress the margin.
Nebraska House Betting Odds
Nebraska's three House seats are all currently Republican-held, but NE-2 is now an open seat. Five-term Republican Don Bacon announced in 2025 that he would not seek re-election, vacating the Omaha-area district Trump lost in both 2020 and 2024. Democrats consider NE-2 their most reliable swing-district pickup target nationally, and Bacon's retirement removes the incumbency advantage that had kept the seat in Republican hands.
The Republican nominee is Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Council member who won the GOP primary on May 12, 2026. The Democratic nominee is Denise Powell, a first-time candidate, political action committee co-founder, and the first Latina to file for federal office in Nebraska. Powell narrowly defeated state Sen. John Cavanaugh in a six-way primary, finishing with roughly 39 percent to Cavanaugh's 37 percent. Cavanaugh conceded May 15 after Douglas County's final ballots confirmed Powell's lead. Outside groups spent heavily on Powell's behalf, and Cavanaugh's campaign labeled her "Dark Money Denise" in attack ads during the closing weeks.
NE-1 (Mike Flood, Lincoln) and NE-3 (Adrian Smith, western Nebraska) are safely Republican. Flood was unopposed in his primary; Smith won his with over 60 percent. Flood won the 2024 general by 24 points; Smith by 51. Their Democratic challengers in 2026 are Chris Backemeyer in NE-1 and Becky Kelly Stille in NE-3, both running uphill races. No mid-decade redistricting in Nebraska. The general election is November 3, 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
3 marketsNebraska U.S. House Election History
Nebraska's three House seats have all been Republican, but the Omaha-based NE-2 is perennially the most competitive, tracking the same swing electorate that hands Democrats a presidential electoral vote. Republican Don Bacon held it for five terms despite the district voting Democratic at the top of the ticket.
Bacon's 2025 retirement turned NE-2 into an open seat and a top national Democratic target for 2026, with Republican Brinker Harding facing Democrat Denise Powell, who won a narrow six-way primary. NE-1 (Mike Flood) and NE-3 (Adrian Smith) remain safely Republican, and Nebraska did not pursue mid-decade redistricting.
Nebraska Presidential Election Betting Odds
Nebraska splits its electoral votes by congressional district, one of only two states to do so (Maine being the other). Statewide, Trump won by 21 points in 2024. NE-1 (Lincoln area, central Nebraska) and NE-3 (rural western Nebraska) went heavily to Trump. NE-2 (Omaha) went to Harris by 4.5 points, becoming the second consecutive cycle that the Omaha-based district voted Democratic for president. NE-2's electoral vote was decisive in both 2020 and 2024 in determining whether Biden/Harris reached 270.
Cook PVI rates Nebraska R+11 statewide, but NE-2 is essentially even. For 2028, the state's 5 electoral votes will likely split 4-1 again, and Republican-aligned strategists have floated changing Nebraska to a winner-take-all system, which would require legislative action that Democrats have so far been able to block.
Nebraska Presidential Election History
Nebraska has voted Republican in every statewide presidential election since 1968 except Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide, but it is one of only two states, with Maine, that splits its electoral votes by congressional district. That quirk has made the Omaha-based NE-2 a recurring Democratic prize.
NE-2 has gone Democratic in three of the last five elections, Obama in 2008, Biden in 2020, and Harris in 2024, the latter two providing electoral votes that mattered to the national math. Statewide Trump won by about 20 points in 2024, and Cook PVI rates the state R+11 statewide while NE-2 is essentially even. Republicans have repeatedly tried, so far unsuccessfully, to switch Nebraska to winner-take-all.
Nebraska Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Nebraska politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Nebraska Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Nebraska's races, now set by the May 12 primary. The marquee contest is the Senate race, where Republican Pete Ricketts faces independent labor leader Dan Osborn in the most interesting Nebraska Senate matchup in a generation. Gov. Jim Pillen seeks a second term against Democrat Lynne Walz, and the open NE-2 House seat is a top Democratic target after Don Bacon's retirement.
Statewide races stay Solid Republican, so the numbers to watch are the Ricketts-Osborn margin, an independent running on labor populism against a billionaire incumbent, and the NE-2 House race in the swing Omaha district that also splits its presidential electoral vote. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Nebraska governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners (D) | April 25–29, 2026 | 900 (LV) | Jim Pillen (R) 47% · Lynne Walz (D) 45% · Undecided 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | April 6–7, 2026 | 670 (RV) | Jim Pillen (R) 38% · Lynne Walz (D) 33% · Rick Beard (LMN) 12% · Undecided 17% |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | December 11–17, 2025 | 900 (LV) | Jim Pillen (R) 48% · Lynne Walz (D) 43% · Undecided 9% |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | July 23–29, 2025 | 900 (LV) | Jim Pillen (R) 51% · Lynne Walz (D) 39% · Undecided 10% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 4 hours ago.
Nebraska U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research (D) | May 8–11, 2026 | 1,165 (LV) | Pete Ricketts (R) 48% · Cindy Burbank (D) 39% · Undecided 13% |
| Tavern Research (D) | May 8–11, 2026 | 1,165 (LV) | Pete Ricketts (R) 42% · Dan Osborn (I) 47% · Undecided 12% |
| Tavern Research (D) | May 8–11, 2026 | 1,165 (LV) | Pete Ricketts (R) 50% · William Forbes (D) 34% · Undecided 16% |
| Tavern Research (D) | May 8–11, 2026 | 1,165 (LV) | Pete Ricketts (R) 49% · Generic Democrat 42% · Undecided 9% |
| Impact Research (D) | February 2–5, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Pete Ricketts (R) 48% · Dan Osborn (I) 47% · Undecided 5% |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | December 11–17, 2025 | 900 (LV) | Pete Ricketts (R) 48% · Dan Osborn (I) 47% · Undecided 5% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Nebraska under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 4 hours ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Nebraska a red state or a blue state?
Nebraska is a deeply red state statewide, Trump won it by about 20 points in 2024, but its Omaha-based 2nd District sometimes awards a Democratic electoral vote, as it did for Harris in 2024. Cook PVI rates the state R+11 to R+13 statewide while NE-2 is essentially even.
Why is the Nebraska Senate race interesting?
Republican Pete Ricketts, a billionaire former governor, faces independent labor leader Dan Osborn, who came within 7 points of Deb Fischer in 2024 and is running again with the state Democratic Party standing aside. It is the most competitive Nebraska Senate race in a generation, though Cook rates it Likely Republican.
Why does Nebraska split its electoral votes?
Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that allocate electoral votes by congressional district, two statewide plus one per district. Nebraska's NE-2, around Omaha, has gone Democratic in three of the last five presidential elections, giving Democrats one electoral vote.
Which Nebraska House seat is competitive?
NE-2, the Omaha-area seat, now open after Republican Don Bacon's retirement. Republican Brinker Harding faces Democrat Denise Powell, the first Latina to file for federal office in Nebraska. It is a top national Democratic target; NE-1 and NE-3 are safely Republican.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.