Nevada Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

The governor's race in Nevada is one of about three genuine toss-ups on the 2026 map nationally. Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo is seeking a second term against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. December polling had them tied at 41-41. The same polling had both Nevada Democratic senators — Cortez Masto and Rosen — with net negative approval, though neither is on the 2026 ballot. The lieutenant governor's race, normally an afterthought, matters this cycle because if Lombardo wins and then runs against Cortez Masto in 2028, a Democratic Lt. Gov. would inherit the governorship. House delegation: 3 Democrats and 1 Republican, with Susie Lee's NV-3 the most competitive seat. Trump won Nevada in 2024 — the first Republican presidential candidate to carry the state since 2004. Primary June 9. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Nevada governor betting odds

Lombardo, the former Clark County sheriff, beat Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak in 2022 by 1.5 points — a 15,000-vote margin in a state where COVID lockdowns had hurt the Democratic brand. He has spent his first term as the state's only Republican statewide officeholder against a Democratic legislature, vetoing Democratic priorities while building a reputation for moderation on social issues. His approval has fluctuated: Morning Consult had him at 53% in mid-2025, Emerson had him at 34% by December.

Aaron Ford, the state attorney general since 2019, is the Democratic frontrunner. Term-limited as AG, he's positioned himself as Nevada's most aggressive legal antagonist of the Trump administration — joining numerous multi-state lawsuits since January 2025. Cortez Masto endorsed him over Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill in July 2025, effectively clearing the Dem primary. Steve Sisolak briefly considered a comeback bid but did not file.

The polling tells the story. December 2025 Emerson: Lombardo 41%, Ford 41%, undecided 18%. Lombardo had an 8-point lead among independents but 40% were undecided. Ford led among Hispanic voters by 16 points. Cook rates the race a toss-up; Kalshi has placed it among the top five closest gubernatorial contests of 2026.

The under-the-radar race: lieutenant governor, where Republican incumbent Stavros Anthony faces a Democratic primary including Assembly Majority Leader Sandra Jauregui (endorsed by Ford). If Lombardo wins and later runs for Senate in 2028 — the Harry Reid-Brian Sandoval scenario from 2014 — the Lt. Gov.'s party determines who inherits the governorship.

Primary June 9, 2026.

Nevada presidential election betting odds

Trump's 2024 win in Nevada — by 3 points over Harris — was the first Republican presidential victory in the state since George W. Bush carried Nevada in 2004. Democrats had won every cycle from 2008 through 2020. The state's working-class shift, the Latino vote movement toward Trump, and weakness in Las Vegas turnout drove the change.

Cook PVI rates Nevada D+1 — among the most competitive presidential states. For 2028, the 6 electoral votes are a genuine toss-up. Both Cortez Masto and Rosen, despite their underwater approval ratings, are not on the 2026 ballot but will face presidential-year electorates in 2028 and 2030 respectively. If Lombardo wins re-election in 2026, he immediately becomes the top Republican Senate recruit against Cortez Masto in 2028.

Nevada senate betting odds

Nevada's two Democratic senators are both off-cycle this year. Catherine Cortez Masto, who won 2022 by 0.8 points (the closest Senate race of that cycle), is next up in 2028. Jacky Rosen, who won re-election in 2024 by 1.6 points over Sam Brown, is next up in 2030.

The 2028 Cortez Masto race is the long-range market with national implications. Her December 2025 Emerson approval was 31% positive, 42% negative — driven significantly by Democratic-base ambivalence. If Lombardo wins governor in 2026, Republican strategists view him as the strongest possible 2028 challenger. The Sandoval scenario from 2014-16 — popular Republican governor declines to run for Senate — is the alternative.

Nevada house betting odds

The Nevada delegation is 3 Democrats to 1 Republican. The Republican is Mark Amodei (NV-2, rural northern Nevada and Reno), in his eighth term, safely incumbent in a Trump+8 district.

The competitive seat is NV-3 (Susie Lee, Las Vegas suburbs), which Lee has held since 2018. She won 2024 by 5 points in a district that's roughly even on partisan lean. Republicans are targeting Lee aggressively in 2026; she has held the seat through multiple competitive cycles but the district shifted toward Trump in 2024.

NV-1 (Dina Titus, Las Vegas) and NV-4 (Steven Horsford, North Las Vegas and rural eastern Nevada) are safer Democratic but neither is in the safest tier. Horsford's NV-4 has trended Republican along with the broader rural Latino shift.

No mid-decade redistricting in Nevada — the state uses a commission-based process and has not initiated any redraw in the post-Callais environment.

Primary June 9, 2026.