Vermont Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Vermont occupies a unique position in American politics: Harris won the state by 32 points in 2024, Bernie Sanders has held one Senate seat since 2007 as an independent socialist, and Republican Phil Scott has been governor since 2017 — winning re-election every two years (Vermont has 2-year gubernatorial terms) with margins that have never dropped below 20 points. Scott is seeking a sixth term in 2026 against Democrat Amanda Janoo. The state’s other federal officials are Sen. Peter Welch (D, won 2022 to replace Patrick Leahy), Sanders (next up 2030), and U.S. Rep. Becca Balint (D, the state’s first woman and first openly LGBTQ representative). Of those three, only Balint is on the 2026 ballot. The Vermont 2026 ballot is, in short, governed by the same anomaly that has defined Vermont politics for a decade: an extremely liberal electorate that votes for a Republican governor because they like him personally. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Vermont governor betting odds

Vermont and New Hampshire are the only two states with 2-year gubernatorial terms. Phil Scott, the former state senator and lieutenant governor, won his first gubernatorial term in 2016 and has been re-elected every two years since. His 2024 re-election margin: 47 points over Democrat Esther Charlestin. He has been the most popular sitting governor in the country at multiple points during his tenure.

Scott’s political identity: a Republican who routinely breaks with Trump and the national party, openly endorsed Joe Biden for re-election in 2024, vetoes Democratic legislative priorities while signing many of them, governs from the moderate center of a state whose electorate is anything but moderate. He is the only Republican governor in the entire Northeast.

Republican primary: Scott is uncontested.

Democratic primary (August 11, 2026): Amanda Janoo is the announced Democratic candidate. Vermont Democrats have nominated a series of challengers against Scott — each has lost by historically large margins.

General election: Scott is essentially unbeatable. Cook rates Solid Republican for the governor’s race despite Vermont being the most Democratic state in the country at the presidential level. The split has held through five consecutive cycles.

Vermont presidential election betting odds

No state delivered Kamala Harris a larger margin than Vermont — 32 points, exceeding even her home state of California. Vermont has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992.

Cook PVI rates Vermont D+15. The 3 electoral votes are safe Democratic for 2028.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, who will be 89 in 2030 (his next election year), is the most prominent national Vermont political figure. His 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns shaped the modern Democratic Party. He has not signaled 2028 presidential intentions.

Vermont senate betting odds

Bernie Sanders and Peter Welch both have terms running past 2026. Sanders (I, caucuses with Democrats), in the Senate since 2007, is next up in 2030. He won 2024 by 30 points over Republican Gerald Malloy. Welch (D), the former U.S. Representative who won the seat after Patrick Leahy’s 2022 retirement, is next up in 2028. He won 2022 by 28 points.

The 2030 Sanders seat is the long-range market generating speculation. Sanders has not announced retirement plans, but at 89 he would be the oldest senator ever elected to a new term. U.S. Rep. Becca Balint is at the top of nearly every potential successor list, having been endorsed by Sanders in her 2022 House primary and built her political brand within the Sanders movement.

Vermont house betting odds

Becca Balint is the first woman and the first openly LGBTQ member of Congress from Vermont. Elected 2022 by 24 points to succeed Welch (who became senator), she is running for re-election. She defeated then-Lt. Gov. Molly Gray in the 2022 Democratic primary with Sanders’s endorsement.

Cook rates the seat “should cruise to reelection.” No serious Republican challenger has emerged. Vermont has not sent a Republican to the U.S. House since Peter Smith lost the seat in 1990 to socialist independent Bernie Sanders — beginning Sanders’s congressional career.

No mid-decade redistricting (Vermont has only one at-large seat). Primary August 11, 2026.