West Virginia Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

West Virginia’s primary was today. Senator Shelley Moore Capito won her Republican primary against five challengers — including state Sen. Tom Willis, who positioned himself as the more populist option and had picked up some MAGA-wing support. Capito is the daughter of former Republican Gov. Arch Moore, the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate from West Virginia, and is now seeking her third term. She has Trump’s endorsement and $4 million in cash on hand. The Democratic primary nominee will face a structural challenge — West Virginia has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 2014 (when Joe Manchin won, and Manchin’s old seat was just won by Jim Justice in 2024 as a Republican). No governor race in 2026 — Gov. Patrick Morrisey took office in January 2025. Morrisey, however, has been the more politically active state figure this cycle, using his political capital to endorse primary challengers against Republican state legislators he views as too independent. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

West Virginia governor betting odds

Patrick Morrisey took office as governor in January 2025, so there’s no gubernatorial race in West Virginia this cycle. Morrisey, the former state attorney general (2013-2025), won the 2024 governor’s race by 26 points over Democrat Steve Williams. His term runs through January 2029.

Morrisey’s first year-plus has been distinguished less by his executive agenda than by his political activism within the state Republican Party. He has openly endorsed primary challengers against Republican state legislators he views as too independent — a posture inspired by Trump’s recent success purging Indiana state senators. Three school choice and voucher PACs have spent over $3 million in West Virginia state legislative primaries this cycle, with several PACs having ties to Morrisey.

The next West Virginia gubernatorial election is November 2028. Morrisey will be eligible to run for a second term.

West Virginia presidential election betting odds

Trump won West Virginia by 42 points in 2024 — his largest state margin in the country. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000, a transformation from its previous status as a working-class Democratic stronghold. The Democratic collapse in West Virginia is the most dramatic state-level partisan shift of the post-Reagan era.

Cook PVI rates West Virginia R+22. For 2028, the 4 electoral votes are safe Republican. No West Virginia politician appears in 2028 presidential markets. Sen. Jim Justice, the former Democratic governor who switched parties in 2017 and won the Senate seat in 2024, has the state-level profile but not a national presidential trajectory.

West Virginia senate betting odds

Capito, the daughter of former Gov. Arch Moore, first won this seat in 2014 by flipping it from Democrat to Republican (defeating Natalie Tennant by 28 points). She won re-election in 2020 by 43 points over Paula Jean Swearengin. She’s the first woman to represent West Virginia in the U.S. Senate.

Republican primary today (May 12, 2026): Capito defeated state Sen. Tom Willis, who upset state Senate President Craig Blair in 2024’s state legislative primary. Willis ran as the more confrontational populist option and drew some attention from MAGA-wing influencers. Capito also defeated convicted January 6 participant Derrick Evans (a former state delegate who served three months for civil disorder), along with three other challengers. NBC News projected Capito the winner. She had over $4 million in cash on hand as of late April and toured the state in a final week push.

Democratic primary: Five candidates. Jeffrey Kessler (70, former state Senate president, two-time gubernatorial primary candidate, ran most recently in 2018) is one of the better-known names. Thornton Cooper, Rachel Fetty Anderson, Rio Phillips, and Zachary Shrewsbury are the others.

The general election will be effectively over the moment the Democratic nominee is determined. Cook rates Solid Republican. The last Democrat to hold a West Virginia Senate seat was Joe Manchin, who retired in 2024 and whose seat is now held by Republican Jim Justice. The previous Democrat to hold Capito’s specific seat was Jay Rockefeller, who retired in 2014.

West Virginia house betting odds

Two House seats, both Republican. WV-1 (Carol Miller, southern West Virginia) is running for a fifth term. Miller defeated state senator Erin Loy in the 2024 Republican primary by 26 points and has no serious 2026 primary challenge. WV-2 (Riley Moore, northern West Virginia) is running for a second term — he flipped the seat in 2024 after Alex Mooney left to run for Senate.

Both general elections are essentially uncontested. West Virginia has not had a competitive House race since 2010.

No mid-decade redistricting in West Virginia. Primary today, May 12, 2026.