2026 Election Tracker
West Virginia Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
West Virginia 2026 election odds for Shelley Moore Capito's third Senate term in deep-red WV, both Republican House districts, and West Virginia voting history.
| Electoral votes | 4 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 70% / Harris 28% (R+42 margin) |
| Current governor | Patrick Morrisey (R), next election 2028 |
| U.S. senators | Shelley Moore Capito (R, on 2026 ballot), Jim Justice (R, next 2030) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | U.S. Senate, all 2 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | R+22 |
West Virginia held its primary on May 12, 2026. Senator Shelley Moore Capito won her Republican primary with 66.5 percent of the vote, defeating state Sen. Tom Willis (18.9 percent) and four other challengers. Capito is the daughter of former Republican Gov. Arch Moore, the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate from West Virginia, and is now seeking her third term with Trump's endorsement. The Democratic primary produced an upset: Morgantown attorney Rachel Anderson won with 33.1 percent, beating prediction-market favorite Jeffrey Kessler (27 percent) and 2024 nominee runner-up Zachary Shrewsbury (16.1 percent). Polymarket and Kalshi had priced Kessler at over 85 percent to win the nomination, making Anderson's victory one of the cycle's bigger upsets against the prediction-market consensus. The general election will be a steep climb for any Democrat in West Virginia, which has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 2012 (when Joe Manchin won re-election). There's no governor race in 2026, but Gov. Patrick Morrisey has been the more politically active state figure this cycle, using his political capital to endorse primary challengers against Republican state legislators he views as too independent. Here on ElectionOdds.com you will find full West Virginia election odds and our homepage can get you to any other midterm election odds you may want to see.
Is West Virginia a Red State or a Blue State?
West Virginia is now one of the reddest states in the country, after spending most of the 20th century as one of the most reliable Democratic states in the union. Trump carried West Virginia by 41.9 points in 2024, by 39 in 2020, and by 42 in 2016. The state's transformation from blue to red is one of the most dramatic political shifts in American history. Cook PVI rates West Virginia R+22. As recently as 1996, West Virginia voted Democratic for Bill Clinton. By 2024, it was one of the three most Republican states in the country, behind only Wyoming and Oklahoma.
The downballot picture is now overwhelmingly Republican. Republicans hold the governorship under Patrick Morrisey, who took office in January 2025. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (Jim Justice and Shelley Moore Capito) after Joe Manchin's retirement in 2024 ended the last Democratic Senate presence in the state. Republicans hold all 2 U.S. House seats and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The state had its last Democratic governor (Earl Ray Tomblin) leave office in 2017, marking the end of a once-dominant Democratic political machine.
West Virginia's voting pattern reflects its unique demographic profile and industrial history. The state is roughly 92% white, has the lowest median household income of any state, has the second-oldest population, and has the highest share of working-class voters without college degrees. Kanawha County (Charleston) and Monongalia County (Morgantown, home of West Virginia University) vote more Democratic than the rest of the state but still lean Republican. The southern coal counties, once the most reliably Democratic part of West Virginia due to the United Mine Workers' political organization, are now among the most Republican counties in the country.
The state's shift was driven by the long decline of coal mining, the realignment of working-class white voters on cultural issues, and the Democratic Party's evolution on energy and environmental policy. The 2016 cycle was the decisive break, as Trump's anti-environmental-regulation message and rejection of Democratic cultural politics aligned perfectly with West Virginia's economic and cultural conditions. The state's transformation since 2000 is among the steepest of any state. West Virginia has 4 electoral votes through 2030.
Will West Virginia become competitive again? Not in any realistic timeframe. The structural factors that pushed West Virginia rightward are still in place and getting stronger. The state continues to lose population, with younger and more college-educated residents leaving for opportunities elsewhere. Democrats have effectively stopped competing for the state at every level except local races. A return to Democratic competitiveness in West Virginia would require a fundamental reordering of the national political map. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
West Virginia Governor Betting Odds
Patrick Morrisey took office as governor in January 2025, so there's no gubernatorial race in West Virginia this cycle. Morrisey, the former state attorney general (2013-2025), won the 2024 governor's race by 26 points over Democrat Steve Williams. His term runs through January 2029.
Morrisey's first year-plus has been distinguished less by his executive agenda than by his political activism within the state Republican Party. He has openly endorsed primary challengers against Republican state legislators he views as too independent, a posture inspired by Trump's recent success purging Indiana state senators. Three school choice and voucher PACs have spent over $3 million in West Virginia state legislative primaries this cycle, with several PACs having ties to Morrisey. The next West Virginia gubernatorial election is November 2028. Morrisey will be eligible to run for a second term. Find all of the Governors elections here.
West Virginia Governor Election History
West Virginia's governorship reflects the state's dramatic realignment. Democrats held it for decades, Joe Manchin won in 2004 and 2008, and Earl Ray Tomblin succeeded him and won a full term in 2012, the last Democrat elected to the office. The pivot came in 2016, when businessman Jim Justice won as a Democrat, then switched to the Republican Party in 2017.
Justice was re-elected as a Republican in 2020 and moved to the U.S. Senate in 2025, succeeded by Republican Patrick Morrisey, who won the 2024 race by 26 points. There is no 2026 governor's race, Morrisey's term runs to 2029. His early tenure has been defined less by an executive agenda than by aggressive intervention in Republican legislative primaries against members he views as insufficiently loyal.
West Virginia Senate Betting Odds
Capito, the daughter of former Gov. Arch Moore, first won this seat in 2014 by flipping it from Democrat to Republican (defeating Natalie Tennant by 28 points). She won re-election in 2020 by 43 points over Paula Jean Swearengin. She's the first woman to represent West Virginia in the U.S. Senate.
Republican primary (May 12, 2026): Capito won 66.5 percent, defeating state Sen. Tom Willis (18.9 percent), convicted January 6 participant Derrick Evans (a former state delegate who served three months for civil disorder), and three other challengers. Willis had positioned himself as the more confrontational populist option and drew attention from MAGA-wing influencers, while Evans ran on his Capitol-riot notoriety. Neither came close to the threshold needed to challenge Capito's renomination. She had over $4 million in cash on hand heading into the final week.
Democratic primary (May 12, 2026): Morgantown attorney and former city council member Rachel Anderson pulled off a major upset, winning with 33.1 percent over Jeffrey Kessler (27 percent), the former state Senate president and two-time gubernatorial primary candidate who had been the heavy favorite. Marine veteran Zachary Shrewsbury finished third at 16.1 percent. Polymarket had priced Kessler at over 85 percent to win, making Anderson's victory one of the cycle's most striking divergences between prediction-market consensus and actual outcome.
The Capito-Anderson general election begins with Capito as the prohibitive favorite. Cook rates the race Solid Republican, with Polymarket and Kalshi both pricing Capito above 95 percent. The last Democrat to hold a West Virginia Senate seat was Joe Manchin, who retired in 2024 and whose seat is now held by Republican Jim Justice. The previous Democrat to hold Capito's specific seat was Jay Rockefeller, who retired in 2014. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
West Virginia U.S. Senate Election History
West Virginia's Senate seats were Democratic institutions for generations, held by figures like Robert Byrd and Jay Rockefeller, but both have turned Republican. Shelley Moore Capito, daughter of former Governor Arch Moore, flipped Rockefeller's seat in 2014, becoming the first woman to represent the state in the Senate. Joe Manchin held the other seat until retiring in 2024, when Republican Jim Justice won it.
Capito's 2026 bid for a third term drew only token primary opposition, which she dispatched with 66.5 percent. The Democratic primary produced a prediction-market upset as Rachel Anderson beat heavy favorite Jeffrey Kessler, but the general election begins with Capito a prohibitive favorite and Cook rating it Solid Republican.
West Virginia House Betting Odds
Two House seats, both Republican. WV-1 (Carol Miller, southern West Virginia) is running for a fifth term. Miller defeated state senator Erin Loy in the 2024 Republican primary by 26 points and has no serious 2026 primary challenge. WV-2 (Riley Moore, northern West Virginia) is running for a second term, he flipped the seat in 2024 after Alex Mooney left to run for Senate.
Both general elections are essentially uncontested. West Virginia has not had a competitive House race since 2010. No mid-decade redistricting in West Virginia. Both incumbents won their May 12, 2026 primaries: Carol Miller in WV-1 dispatched a nominal challenger; Riley Moore in WV-2 was unopposed. Both general elections in November are essentially uncontested. See all election odds for house seats here.
West Virginia U.S. House Election History
West Virginia's House delegation shrank to two seats after the 2020 census, and both are safely Republican, the last competitive race coming in 2010 as the state completed its rightward turn. Carol Miller has held the southern WV-1 since 2019, and Riley Moore flipped the northern WV-2 in 2024 after Alex Mooney left to run for Senate.
Both incumbents won renomination in May 2026, Miller over a nominal challenger and Moore unopposed, and both general elections are essentially uncontested. West Virginia did not pursue mid-decade redistricting, and its two districts remain among the safest Republican seats in the country.
West Virginia Presidential Election Betting Odds
Trump won West Virginia by 42 points in 2024, his largest state margin in the country. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000, a transformation from its previous status as a working-class Democratic stronghold. The Democratic collapse in West Virginia is the most dramatic state-level partisan shift of the post-Reagan era. Cook PVI rates West Virginia R+22. For 2028, the 4 electoral votes are safe Republican.
No West Virginia politician appears in 2028 presidential markets. Sen. Jim Justice, the former Democratic governor who switched parties in 2017 and won the Senate seat in 2024, has the state-level profile but not a national presidential trajectory.
West Virginia Presidential Election History
West Virginia's shift is among the most dramatic in American political history. For most of the 20th century it was a reliably Democratic, union-and-coal stronghold that backed Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000, and the margins exploded after the coal industry's decline.
Trump carried the state by about 42 points in 2016, 39 in 2020, and 42 again in 2024, his largest state margin in the country. Cook PVI rates it R+22, third only to Wyoming and Oklahoma, and its 4 electoral votes are safely Republican. The collapse of the once-dominant Democratic machine here is often cited as the clearest single example of the post-Reagan working-class realignment.
West Virginia Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to West Virginia politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
West Virginia Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for West Virginia's races, now set by the May 12 primary in one of the reddest states in the country. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito seeks a third term against Democrat Rachel Anderson, who pulled off a prediction-market upset to win her primary. There is no governor race this cycle, and both House seats are safely Republican.
West Virginia produces essentially no competitive general-election polling given its R+22 lean, so Capito starts as a prohibitive favorite with betting markets pricing her above 95 percent. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
West Virginia governor polls
No West Virginia governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
West Virginia U.S. Senate polls
No West Virginia U.S. Senate polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is West Virginia a red state or a blue state?
West Virginia is now one of the reddest states in the country, after being one of the most reliably Democratic for most of the 20th century. Trump carried it by about 42 points in 2024, his largest state margin, and Cook PVI rates it R+22, behind only Wyoming and Oklahoma.
Is Shelley Moore Capito favored for a third term?
Yes, overwhelmingly. Capito won her primary with 66.5%, and the general election against Democrat Rachel Anderson begins with her a prohibitive favorite. Cook rates the race Solid Republican, with betting markets pricing her above 95 percent.
Is there a West Virginia governor race in 2026?
No. Republican Patrick Morrisey took office in January 2025 after winning the 2024 race by 26 points, and his term runs through 2029. The 2026 ballot is the Senate seat and both House seats.
Are any West Virginia House seats competitive?
No. Both seats are safely Republican, held by Carol Miller (WV-1) and Riley Moore (WV-2). West Virginia has not had a competitive House race since 2010 and did not redistrict mid-decade.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.