2026 Election Tracker
Wisconsin Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Wisconsin 2026 election odds for the first open governor race since 2010 after Tony Evers declined a third term, plus the primary and 8 House districts.
| Electoral votes | 10 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 49.7% / Harris 48.8% (R+0.9 margin) |
| Current governor | Tony Evers (D), declined third term |
| U.S. senators | Ron Johnson (R, next 2028), Tammy Baldwin (D, next 2030) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor (open), all 8 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | Even |
Wisconsin elects governors by about one point. The 2018 race was decided by 1.1 points. The 2022 race by 3.4. Both U.S. Senate races since 2022 came down to similarly narrow margins. The 2024 presidential vote went to Trump by 0.9. There's no real concept of a "safe" statewide race in Wisconsin, and 2026 is the first open governor's race since 2010 because Tony Evers declined to seek a third term. The Republican side has consolidated around a single Trump-endorsed candidate. The Democratic side has not. Whoever emerges from a ten-person primary in August will have less than three months to introduce themselves statewide before voting begins. This page on ElectionOdds.com will help you find the Wisconsin election odds easily, and you can visit the homepage to find more 2026 US election odds.
Is Wisconsin a Red State or a Blue State?
Wisconsin is a true swing state with a slight Republican lean at the presidential level. The state has been decided by less than 1 point in three of the last six presidential elections. Trump carried Wisconsin by 0.9 points in 2024, narrowly losing it by 0.6 in 2020, and winning it by 0.7 in 2016. Cook PVI rates Wisconsin R+2. No state has produced more consistent nail-biter elections in modern presidential politics.
The downballot picture is split. Democrats hold the governorship under Tony Evers, who won reelection by 3.4 points in 2022 and is up again in 2026 (Wisconsin governors do not have term limits). Republicans hold both chambers of the state legislature, in part because of one of the most aggressively gerrymandered state-legislative maps in the country, though the Wisconsin Supreme Court ordered new state-legislative maps in 2024 that have made the chambers more competitive. The Wisconsin Supreme Court itself flipped to a liberal majority in 2023 and remains 4-3 liberal as of 2026.
The state's voting pattern is built on three regional dynamics. Milwaukee and Dane County (Madison) vote heavily Democratic and provide the bulk of the Democratic vote. The Milwaukee suburbs, particularly Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee counties, vote Republican by 30-point margins. The rural areas of central and northern Wisconsin have shifted decisively toward Republicans since 2016. The shift among rural white voters without college degrees was sharper in Wisconsin than in any other Midwestern state.
Wisconsin has only 10 electoral votes but punches well above its weight in presidential politics because of how reliably close it has been. Both parties spend more per capita in Wisconsin than in almost any other state. The 2024 cycle saw an estimated $200 million in combined presidential ad spending in Wisconsin. The 2026 governor's race is expected to draw similar levels of national attention.
Will Wisconsin stay competitive? Yes, almost certainly. The demographic balance is genuinely close, and neither party has been able to break out a structural advantage. The state's two largest counties, Milwaukee and Waukesha, vote in opposite directions by overwhelming margins, and the smaller counties have continued to drift Republican without producing a true partisan shift. Wisconsin will be one of the central battlegrounds of the 2028 presidential election. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Wisconsin Governor Betting Odds
Evers won 2018 by 1.1 points over Scott Walker, then won 2022 by 3.4 points over Tim Michels. He announced on July 24, 2025 that he would not seek a third term, citing his family. Eight Democrats and two Republicans qualified for the August 11 primary.
The Democratic field is the largest in recent state memory. Mandela Barnes, the former lieutenant governor who lost the 2022 U.S. Senate race to Ron Johnson by 1 point, entered in December and brings the most statewide name recognition. Sara Rodriguez, the current lieutenant governor, was the first major candidate in and has the institutional advantages of the incumbent administration. David Crowley, Milwaukee County's first Black executive, is the leading candidate from the state's largest metro. State Sen. Kelda Roys ran for governor in 2018 and represents Madison. State Rep. Francesca Hong, a Madison restaurant owner and one of the chamber's four Democratic Socialists, is running a campaign focused on a $20 minimum wage and universal child care. Missy Hughes, former CEO of the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation under Evers, and Joel Brennan, a former Evers cabinet secretary, round out the major candidates. Polling has 60-plus percent of Democratic primary voters undecided.
The Republican side has consolidated. U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany (WI-7, North Woods) earned Trump's endorsement in January 2026, and Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann dropped out of the race within days. Tiffany has the establishment, the endorsement, and a 72-county campaign strategy. Andy Manske, a 26-year-old medical service technician, is the only other GOP candidate still in. The April 7, 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court race went decisively to liberal Chris Taylor, extending the court's 4-3 liberal majority and giving Tiffany an early read on the political environment, the morning after, he conceded Republicans "got our butts kicked." Cook rates the general election toss-up. Two state constitutional amendments are likely on the November ballot: an anti-DEI amendment limiting use of race or sex in public hiring, and an amendment restricting the governor's line-item veto. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Wisconsin Governor Election History
Wisconsin's governorship has flipped between the parties repeatedly, usually by close margins. Republican Tommy Thompson dominated the 1990s, the only governor elected to more than two consecutive four-year terms, before Democrat Jim Doyle won in 2002 and 2006. Republican Scott Walker then won in 2010, survived a historic 2012 recall, and won again in 2014, becoming a national conservative figure, until Democrat Tony Evers unseated him by 1.1 points in 2018.
Evers won re-election by 3.4 points in 2022 but declined to seek a third term in 2025, opening the first open governor's race since 2010. A ten-candidate Democratic primary, led in name recognition by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, faces a consolidated Republican Party behind Trump-endorsed Rep. Tom Tiffany. In a state where almost everything is decided by a point or two, Cook rates the general election a toss-up.
Wisconsin Senate Betting Odds
Neither Wisconsin Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Ron Johnson, re-elected by 1 point over Mandela Barnes in 2022, is next up in 2028. Tammy Baldwin, re-elected by 1 point over Eric Hovde in 2024, is next up in 2030. Wisconsin's senatorial split, one Republican, one Democrat, both winning by margins of less than 2 points, is one of the more accurate snapshots of the state's actual partisan composition.
Johnson's 2028 race is the more interesting one for long-range markets. He'll be 73 by November 2028 and has previously pledged not to seek additional terms (a pledge he revisited and reversed before 2022). No formal announcement has been made about his plans. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
Wisconsin U.S. Senate Election History
Wisconsin's split Senate delegation mirrors its knife-edge politics. Republican Ron Johnson has won three terms since 2010, each narrowly, including a 1-point win over Mandela Barnes in 2022. Democrat Tammy Baldwin has held the other seat since 2012, winning her closest race by about a point over Eric Hovde in 2024.
That one-Republican, one-Democrat split, both winning by under 2 points, is among the most accurate snapshots of the state's even partisan composition. Neither seat is on the 2026 ballot, Johnson is up in 2028 and Baldwin in 2030. The forward-looking question is whether Johnson, who will be 73 in 2028 and once pledged not to seek another term, runs again.
Wisconsin House Betting Odds
The state's eight congressional seats are split 6 Republicans to 2 Democrats. The 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court ruling that struck down the state's gerrymandered legislative maps did not change the congressional lines for 2024, those remained in place, but the new liberal court majority leaves open the question of whether further redistricting challenges could succeed before 2028.
For 2026, WI-3 is the most competitive seat. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-La Crosse) won the seat in 2022 and again in 2024 in a district that runs along the western edge of the state and includes more rural and working-class territory than other Wisconsin GOP-held seats. Democrats have prioritized it. WI-1, held by Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), is the next-most-watched but has trended Republican more reliably. The other six seats are not in serious play. No mid-decade redistricting is occurring in Wisconsin. The August 11 primary is the same day as the gubernatorial primary, which will substantially raise turnout in competitive Democratic primaries. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
5 marketsWisconsin U.S. House Election History
Wisconsin's 8-seat House delegation has sat at 6-2 Republican, a split shaped by maps long regarded as among the most effective Republican gerrymanders in the country. The Wisconsin Supreme Court, which flipped to a liberal majority in 2023, struck down the gerrymandered state-legislative maps in 2024 but left the congressional lines in place for that cycle.
That leaves the competitive action in WI-3, the western district held by Republican Derrick Van Orden, which has more rural and working-class territory than the state's other GOP seats and sits atop Democratic target lists. WI-1, held by Republican Bryan Steil, is watched but leans more reliably Republican. With the liberal court majority intact, further congressional redistricting challenges before 2028 remain an open question.
Wisconsin Presidential Election Betting Odds
Wisconsin's last three presidential elections have been decided by less than a point. Trump won by 0.7 in 2016, Biden won by 0.6 in 2020, Trump won by 0.9 in 2024. There is no Rust Belt state where presidential outcomes are tighter. Cook PVI rates the state Even.
For 2028, Wisconsin is permanently in the toss-up category. Any winning presidential coalition almost certainly needs the state, combined with Michigan and Pennsylvania, it's the core of the Rust Belt path to 270. Senator Tammy Baldwin, who won 2024 by 1 point against Eric Hovde, has occasionally been mentioned in long-shot 2028 Democratic markets but has not signaled interest.
Wisconsin Presidential Election History
Wisconsin is the tightest presidential state in the country. It anchored the Democratic "blue wall" from 1988 through 2012, but Trump cracked it by 0.7 points in 2016, Biden won it back by 0.6 in 2020, and Trump carried it again by 0.9 in 2024, three straight elections decided by under a single point.
No other Rust Belt state produces margins this consistently narrow, and the two parties spend more per capita there than almost anywhere. Cook PVI rates the state Even. Its 10 electoral votes are a permanent toss-up and, alongside Michigan and Pennsylvania, form the core of nearly every winning path to 270, making Wisconsin a certain 2028 battleground.
Wisconsin Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Wisconsin politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Wisconsin Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Wisconsin's open governor's race, the marquee contest. On the Democratic side you'll see a ten-candidate primary led in name recognition by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, alongside Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. The Republican field has consolidated behind Trump-endorsed Rep. Tom Tiffany.
In a state where nearly everything is decided by a point or two, the general election is a genuine toss-up, so watch the Milwaukee suburbs (Waukesha, Washington, Ozaukee) against the Milwaukee-Madison Democratic base. More than 60 percent of Democratic primary voters were still undecided in recent polling. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Wisconsin governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | May 13–15, 2026 | 880 (RV) 877 (LV) | David Crowley 8% · Francesca Hong 8.5% · Mandela Barnes 24.1% · Sara Rodriguez 12.3% · Other 7.1% · Undecided 38.8% |
| TIPP Insights (R) | March 13–19, 2026 | 1,175 (LV) | Mandela Barnes (D) 43% · Tom Tiffany (R) 41% · Other 6% · Undecided 10% |
| TIPP Insights (R) | March 13–19, 2026 | 1,175 (LV) | David Crowley (D) 42% · Tom Tiffany (R) 41% · Other 5% · Undecided 12% |
| TIPP Insights (R) | March 13–19, 2026 | 1,175 (LV) | Francesca Hong (D) 40% · Tom Tiffany (R) 43% · Other 6% · Undecided 12% |
| TIPP Insights (R) | March 13–19, 2026 | 1,175 (LV) | Sara Rodriguez (D) 44% · Tom Tiffany (R) 41% · Other 5% · Undecided 10% |
| Marquette University | March 11–18, 2026 | 393 (RV) | David Crowley 3% · Francesca Hong 14% · Kelda Roys 1% · Mandela Barnes 11% · Missy Hughes 1% · Sara Rodriguez 3% · Undecided 65% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 3 hours ago.
Wisconsin U.S. Senate polls
No Wisconsin U.S. Senate polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Wisconsin a red state or a blue state?
Wisconsin is a true swing state with a slight Republican lean at the presidential level. Its last three presidential elections were each decided by under a point, Trump won it by 0.9 in 2024, and Cook PVI rates it Even to R+2. No state produces tighter results.
Why is the 2026 Wisconsin governor race open?
Democratic Governor Tony Evers announced in July 2025 that he would not seek a third term, citing his family. It is the first open Wisconsin governor's race since 2010, and Cook rates the general election a toss-up.
Who is running for Wisconsin governor in 2026?
The Republican field consolidated behind Trump-endorsed Rep. Tom Tiffany. The Democratic side has a ten-candidate August primary led in name recognition by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, with Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley among the field, and more than 60 percent of voters undecided.
Is there a U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin in 2026?
No. Republican Ron Johnson is next up in 2028 and Democrat Tammy Baldwin in 2030. The 2026 ballot is the open governor's race and all eight House seats, with WI-3 (Derrick Van Orden) the most competitive House contest.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.