About ElectionOdds.com

Independent political analysis from Tallahassee, Florida. More than 50 years of combined experience covering American elections. 

Our Mission

ElectionOdds.com tracks the prediction markets, polling, and political news that shape American elections. Our job is to tell readers who is favored to win, why the markets see the race that way, and how the picture changes as polls move, endorsements drop, and events on the ground reshape the cycle. We are not a campaign organization, a polling firm, or a political action committee. We are journalists and analysts who cover elections the way financial reporters cover markets.

Founded in 2019, the site has grown from a small staff covering a single presidential cycle into a full-time newsroom tracking federal, state, and local races across all 50 states. We cover the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial races, statewide constitutional offices, ballot measures, and the major mayoral contests, with deeper analysis on the races where prediction markets show the most movement.

Our Approach

We rely on three primary data sources: the major prediction markets (Polymarket and Kalshi), publicly reported polling aggregated across the cycle, and on-the-ground reporting from political reporters at major outlets. We do not run our own polls, and we do not place bets ourselves. Our value to readers is interpretation: telling you what the markets are pricing, why they may be pricing it that way, and where the markets and the polling diverge.

We try to be honest about uncertainty. Prediction markets are not crystal balls. They were wrong about Brexit, they undervalued Trump in 2016, and they priced the West Virginia Democratic Senate primary at 85 percent for the wrong candidate this May. When markets are confident, we report that. When they are confused, we report that too. We write so a reader can make their own informed call about a race rather than take ours on faith.

We do not endorse candidates. We do not take money from political campaigns. We are independent of every political party and every prediction-market platform we cover.

Where We Are

ElectionOdds.com is based in Tallahassee, Florida, the state capital and home to one of the densest political infrastructures in the South. From Tallahassee we have direct access to state agencies, statewide elected officials, the Florida political press corps, and a network of campaign consultants, pollsters, and former officeholders who form the backbone of our reporting on Florida and the broader Southeastern political map. Florida is also one of the largest electoral prizes in any cycle, and being inside the state means we cover the races our readers care about most from closer to the ground than most national outlets.

The Team

Steve Venclauskas, Editor in Chief

Steve Venclauskas leads the newsroom and oversees all editorial coverage at ElectionOdds.com. He has spent his career at the intersection of political journalism and prediction markets, becoming one of the most cited writers on betting odds in American politics. Steve writes the site's special news features on major political events and is the in-house authority on Florida political dynamics, where his sourcing inside the state's Republican and Democratic operations runs deeper than most national reporters working the state. He sets the editorial standards every other staffer works to.

John Claudette, Senate and House Analyst

John Claudette holds a political science degree from Florida State University and interned in the U.S. Senate, giving him first-hand exposure to how the chamber actually works that few political analysts can match. He covers all 35 Senate seats on the 2026 ballot, every competitive House race, and the broader balance-of-power math that shapes which seats actually matter for control. He is the in-house authority on Senate procedure, vote-counting math, and the structural advantages and disadvantages each party brings to a given cycle.

Beth Masterson, Florida and Campaign Finance Writer

Beth Masterson holds a business administration degree from Florida State University and has worked for multiple Florida political officials, giving her insider perspective on the day-to-day mechanics of campaigns and the state-level dynamics that often decide federal races. She covers Florida state politics and the broader story of campaign fundraising across the country: who is raising what, where the money is coming from, and how the dollar flow predicts election outcomes. Her business background brings a financial-reporter discipline to coverage that often goes overlooked in political news.

Jason Hornsby, Presidential Elections Analyst

Jason Hornsby holds a master's degree in political science and has hands-on experience inside state-party political operations, giving him a working understanding of the infrastructure that drives presidential primaries and general elections. He covers the 2028 presidential race, the early-state nominating calendar, and the broader question of which candidates have the institutional, financial, and grassroots foundations to win a national campaign. His coverage anchors the site's presidential odds and primary forecasting.

Ryan Foster, State Election Editor

Ryan Foster is a Georgetown University graduate with a master's degree in world politics, and he edits the site's 50-state coverage. He oversees the state-by-state pages, the primary calendar, and the cross-state comparisons that put individual races in national context. His international politics background brings a comparative lens to American elections, particularly useful in cycles when foreign-policy positions and global events affect domestic vote outcomes.

Michael Montero, Governor Race Writer

Michael Montero graduated from the University of Central Florida with a degree in international and global studies and previously worked for the mayor of Tallahassee, giving him direct experience inside an executive office. He covers the 36 gubernatorial races on the 2026 calendar and is the site's specialist on the unique dynamics of state-executive elections, which often run on completely different fundamentals than federal races even in the same cycle. His coverage spans both the high-profile gubernatorial primaries and the under-covered races that matter for state-level policy.

How We Make Money

ElectionOdds.com is supported by display advertising on its pages and affiliate relationships with regulated prediction-market platforms and sportsbooks in jurisdictions where political and event betting is legal. Affiliate revenue has no effect on editorial coverage. We cover races based on their political importance and reader interest, not based on which platform offers what payouts. Our coverage of Polymarket markets and Kalshi markets is identical in approach and prominence regardless of which platform might pay us a referral fee. We do not accept payment from candidates, campaigns, political action committees, or any party organization. We do not run sponsored content.

Editorial Standards

We follow Associated Press style. We correct errors promptly and visibly. We update prediction-market odds across the site automatically through the trading day; when we cite a specific market percentage in a written article, we date-stamp it and note that the number was current as of publication. When markets move significantly after publication, we update the article or write a follow-up piece. We attribute polling to the polling firm that ran it. We do not publish anonymous-source reporting that originates only with us; if we cite reporting that relies on anonymous sources, we attribute the original outlet.

Contact

Editorial inquiries, corrections, and tips can be sent through the site's contact form. We typically respond within one business day. We do not accept guest posts, sponsored articles, or link-building solicitations.

ElectionOdds.com
Tallahassee, Florida
Founded 2019